Russian Fighter Aircraft Prospects

flamming_python wrote:

nemrod wrote:

Cucumber Khan wrote:
Let's be honest here: Not a single Su-35 deal have been signed yet. Not one. It's pretty premature to speak about the Su-35 as some kind of export success.

There are at least two countries, if not more that wanted SU-35 but Russia abstained to buy them, because of friendly west pressure.
Iran need at least 200 SU-35, and wish to buy them. Syria wants SU-35 too. Vietnam, Malaysia, Venezuela, North Korea not only want, but wish this fighter too. I suspect Pakistan is interesting too, but Russia fears pressure from India, as Russia underwent pressures from China concerning Vietnam. The next great market must be Iran. With 200 SU-35, and 200 Mig-35 Iran could stop any western aggression. The weapon biz is at first politics.

Pakistan is out due to Indian concerns, as mentioned.

I'd imagine S. Korea would be pretty upset if Russia sold the Su-35 to the Norks, so that's out too.

Syria is in no position to buy the Su-35

Iran might, but then it might not, they seem to be set on self-reliance. If they buy anything then I suspect they'll rather go for a new interceptor aircraft such as the Su-30MK or maybe MiG-31BMs. The bells and whistles offered by the Su-35 are probably superflous to iranian requirements.

Malaysia and Venezuela are probably decent bets, why not. Add Indonesia too.

Haven't heard anything about Vietnamese interest, but even if China pressured Russia over it (and Russia has been selling to Vietnam so far with no problem); then that's OK if it means that the Chinese themselves buy the Su-35, they've already expressed interest in it as a matter of fact.

So Venezuela, Malaysia, China and Indonesia being front-runners. Possible interest from Vietnam. Maybe the Norks too, if S. Korea bows to US pressure to stop pursuing closer ties with Russia.

Overall it's not bad catch.

Iran is a Front runner too, since they need a new fighter ASAP. Furthermore if the money is unfrozen as due, well Iran might find the means to invest a couple billions in at least two squadrons of the 35. Just to make those Strikes in Yem...Iraq more safely.

KoTeMoRe wrote:
Iran is a Front runner too, since they need a new fighter ASAP. Furthermore if the money is unfrozen as due, well Iran might find the means to invest a couple billions in at least two squadrons of the 35. Just to make those Strikes in Yem...Iraq more safely.

Not sure if about exact price ratio between Su-35 and Su-30SM but looks like ~1,5:1 and Su-30 is still a huge progress from F-5 or F-14. I mean surely Iran would appreciate S-35 but ¨aggressive¨ Iran has a military budget 1/40th of the one of leading peace and human rights defender in the world. So buying 24 Su-35 or 36 Su-30SM is a huge difference. Not to mention potential of MiG-35

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:
Iran is a Front runner too, since they need a new fighter ASAP. Furthermore if the money is unfrozen as due, well Iran might find the means to invest a couple billions in at least two squadrons of the 35. Just to make those Strikes in Yem...Iraq more safely.

Not sure if about exact price ratio between Su-35 and Su-30SM but looks like ~1,5:1 and Su-30 is still a huge progress from F-5 or F-14.  I mean surely Iran would appreciate S-35 but ¨aggressive¨ Iran has a military budget 1/40th of the one of leading peace and human rights defender in the world. So buying 24 Su-35 or 36 Su-30SM is a huge difference. Not to mention potential of MiG-35

Weren't there a lot of rumors that Iran was looking to buy some J-10 fighters from China recently?

Anyway glad to hear that the VVS will get some more Su-35Ss. Some less credible sources are already saying 48 birds.

GarryB wrote:Wouldn't Algeria and UAE perhaps be likely customers too... the former more so than the latter.

I thought about Algeria too, but I'm not sure they have the money to throw around.

If they buy anything it would be more Su-30MKAs; it's no longer the latest wizz-bang, but it does pretty much the same thing and is cheaper.

Actually the UAE and other Gulf Arab states are potential customers for the Su-35, potentially very good customers.
But their interest depends very heavily on big politics and how the whole situation will develop in the Middle East over the next few years. If Russia continues its reapproachment with the Saudis, and the later order Iskanders as rumoured - then I'd say the likelyhood of Su-35 sales to to someone there would be pretty good.
However it could just as easily go the other way; Russia and SA have warmed and cooled and warmed and cooled a half dozen times just over the last 15 years. No-one knows how things will go from here in terms of Russia and Gulf Arab relations.

Mike E wrote:Russia is trying to get a T-90MS deal with Pakistan, no reason why they can't with the Su-35, and no reason for India to have a say in the matter...

Oh they don't, but what the Indians do have a say in, is who they themselves will buy from.

And now consider that India is Russia's largest defence customer, and you'll get the picture.

flamming_python wrote:

Mike E wrote:Russia is trying to get a T-90MS deal with Pakistan, no reason why they can't with the Su-35, and no reason for India to have a say in the matter...

Oh they don't, but what the Indians do have a say in, is who they themselves will buy from.

And now consider that India is Russia's largest defence customer, and you'll get the picture.

True true...though I see it as more of a "need" situation, and not one where India has much flexibility. Their forces are wrapped around Russian weapons and vehicles, that require Russian maintenance and upgrades, so short-term they are stuck. 

Hopefully, Russia could act as a middle-man between the two countries and soften relations.

flamming_python wrote:If they buy anything then I suspect they'll rather go for a new interceptor aircraft such as the Su-30MK or maybe MiG-31BMs.

Ah yes, Tsar Putin will wave with magic wand and fresh MiG-31BM's will appear out of nowhere.

What about the time when they proposed MiG-31E's to Syria? Sometime back there were claims that they could restart production of MiG-31's. That was at a time when Russia wasn't nearly technologically or economically capable.

Would be sweet to see new MiG-31's.

sepheronx wrote:What about the time when they proposed MiG-31E's to Syria?  Sometime back there were claims that they could restart production of MiG-31's.  That was at a time when Russia wasn't nearly technologically or economically capable.

Would be sweet to see new MiG-31's.  

Berkut is right, in the late 90's/early 2000' MiG had a proposal to export MiG-31 by overhauling used VVS planes. MiG-31 production ended in the early 90's and was never reopened. But now the VVS plans to upgrade all its MiG-31 fleet to BM/BSM, so there are no available aircraft for export anymore.

Svyatoslavich wrote:

sepheronx wrote:What about the time when they proposed MiG-31E's to Syria?  Sometime back there were claims that they could restart production of MiG-31's.  That was at a time when Russia wasn't nearly technologically or economically capable.

Would be sweet to see new MiG-31's.  

Berkut is right, in the late 90's/early 2000' MiG had a proposal to export MiG-31 by overhauling used VVS planes. MiG-31 production ended in the early 90's and was never reopened. But now the VVS plans to upgrade all its MiG-31 fleet to BM/BSM, so there are no available aircraft for export anymore.

Fair enough. I wonder how much it would cost to retool and restart production vs creating a new type of aircraft?

Regardless, sad they are not making any new ones.

Ivan the Colorado wrote:

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:
Iran is a Front runner too, since they need a new fighter ASAP. Furthermore if the money is unfrozen as due, well Iran might find the means to invest a couple billions in at least two squadrons of the 35. Just to make those Strikes in Yem...Iraq more safely.

Not sure if about exact price ratio between Su-35 and Su-30SM but looks like ~1,5:1 and Su-30 is still a huge progress from F-5 or F-14.  I mean surely Iran would appreciate S-35 but ¨aggressive¨ Iran has a military budget 1/40th of the one of leading peace and human rights defender in the world. So buying 24 Su-35 or 36 Su-30SM is a huge difference. Not to mention potential of MiG-35

Weren't there a lot of rumors that Iran was looking to buy some J-10 fighters from China recently?

Anyway glad to hear that the VVS will get some more Su-35Ss. Some less credible sources are already saying 48 birds.

J10's are still No Go for export (bar the Pakistani batch). The only offer sofar has been FC1's/JF17's. Needless to say, even at the very interesting price, the Iranians would need something more potent and flexible.

Wonder why the J-10's are a no go for export. And even then, I have not seen a Pakistani variant flying. Just JF-17's.

Yeah, Iran would need something heavier and far more potent like Su-30SM or Su-35's. But I fear that China will end up getting all the contracts.

Ivan the Colorado wrote:

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:
Iran is a Front runner too, since they need a new fighter ASAP. Furthermore if the money is unfrozen as due, well Iran might find the means to invest a couple billions in at least two squadrons of the 35. Just to make those Strikes in Yem...Iraq more safely.

Not sure if about exact price ratio between Su-35 and Su-30SM but looks like ~1,5:1 and Su-30 is still a huge progress from F-5 or F-14.  I mean surely Iran would appreciate S-35 but ¨aggressive¨ Iran has a military budget 1/40th of the one of leading peace and human rights defender in the world. So buying 24 Su-35 or 36 Su-30SM is a huge difference. Not to mention potential of MiG-35

Weren't there a lot of rumors that Iran was looking to buy some J-10 fighters from China recently?

Anyway glad to hear that the VVS will get some more Su-35Ss. Some less credible sources are already saying 48 birds.

Iran is in dire need of everything fast and reasonably priced. IAF and USAF and who knows Turkey Saudis? So both Chinese and Russian toys can be welcomed here. BTW what about if not new than refurbished MiG-29s? Still can do the job not fancy though

Yup, Rostech confirmed. What IMHO is good news - taking into account Chinese-Us tensions about Spratley new more capable planes and S-400 will be handy.

BTW Brazil and Indonesia seem to be also interested. Good - unit cost will decrease for Russian AF.

http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20151119/1324098933.html

§Seph - nice forum, kudos need to advertise this maybe on RT or facebook groups for both pro Russian and anti-Russian propaganda (radio liberty so people have a chance to learn other point of view not only one true propaganda I will start propagation on Polish forums is Polish FBI will take a closer look on me so need to use more proxies maybe TOR

GunshipDemocracy wrote:Yup, Rostech confirmed. What IMHO is good news - taking into account Chinese-Us tensions about Spratley new more capable planes and S-400 will be handy.

BTW Brazil and Indonesia seem to be also interested. Good - unit cost will decrease for Russian AF.

http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20151119/1324098933.html

§Seph - nice forum, kudos need to advertise this maybe on RT or facebook groups for both pro Russian and anti-Russian propaganda (radio liberty so people have a chance to learn other point of view not only one true propaganda I will start propagation on Polish forums is Polish FBI will take a closer look on me  so need to use more proxies maybe TOR

Indonesia Poised to Buy Russian Su-35 Fighters
The Russian-Indonesian joint commission on military-technical cooperation will discuss the purchase of the Russian Sukhoi Su-35 fighters in late November in Jakarta, Indonesian Ambassador to Moscow Djauhari Oratmangun said Wednesday.

Earlier in November, head of the International Cooperation Department of Russian state technology corporation Rostec Viktor Kladov stated Jakarta decided to purchase newest Russian Su-35 Fighters and discussed the construction of service centers in Indonesia.

According to the diplomat, the fact that the Indonesian Defense Minister has recently made an official statement on the issue confirms the existence of the plans for the purchase of Su-35.

"It is a good sign, after which real agreements will emerge. In late November, a technical meeting of the joint commission on military-technical cooperation will be held, and this issue will be one of the main topics," Oratmangun told RIA Novosti in an interview.

However, he noted, a tender for the purchase of aircraft has not been announced so far.

GunshipDemocracy wrote:BTW Brazil and Indonesia seem to be also interested.

Brazil have recently bought Gripens (which they can barely afford), they aren't buying anything else for now

Dorfmeister wrote:

GunshipDemocracy wrote:BTW Brazil and Indonesia seem to be also interested.

Not that bad mate
Brazil have recently bought Gripens (which they can barely afford), they aren't buying anything else for now
http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20151109/1316985056.html


1) AFAIK so far 36 ordered is not going to replenish all Brazilian AF with new birds

2) Su-35 is much better choice for country of size of comparable with European continent

http://www.defesabr.com/blog/index.php/10/11/2015/site-russo-afirma-que-brasil-negocia-a-compra-de-cacas-russos-sukhoi-su-35/

Dorfmeister wrote:

GunshipDemocracy wrote:BTW Brazil and Indonesia seem to be also interested.

Brazil have recently bought Gripens (which they can barely afford), they aren't buying anything else for now

I still can't digest the price tag on Gripens. For a while I thought it would make sense for Serbia to get them, one engined plane should be cheap I figured, but oh boy was I wrong.
They make F-35 look affordable...

PapaDragon wrote:

Dorfmeister wrote:

GunshipDemocracy wrote:BTW Brazil and Indonesia seem to be also interested.

Brazil have recently bought Gripens (which they can barely afford), they aren't buying anything else for now

I still can't digest the price tag on Gripens. For a while I thought it would make sense for Serbia to get them, one engined plane should be cheap  I figured, but oh boy was I wrong.
They make F-35 look affordable...

MiG-35 will come as cavalry )

BTW Косово је Србија

GunshipDemocracy wrote:http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20151109/1316985056.html


1) AFAIK so far 36 ordered is not going to replenish all Brazilian AF with new birds

2) Su-35 is much better choice for country of size of comparable with European continent

http://www.defesabr.com/blog/index.php/10/11/2015/site-russo-afirma-que-brasil-negocia-a-compra-de-cacas-russos-sukhoi-su-35/

Sorry mate, I'm not buying it... Even if the Gripen is not the "perfect plane" for Brazil (I'm convinced a heavier plane like the Su-30/35 would be a better choice) they've been struggling these last 10 years to decide what to buy and when to buy it (let's put aside all the corruption bla bla around the deal).

But I'll be happy to offer you a beer if Brazil sign any order with Russia now or in 5 years time. Up to now they're only rumors with nothing really serious behind them. Remember that a few years ago they had "signed" (sic) for Rafales...

Western and European jets and helicopters are literally useless looking at what limited capabilities they have and the price tag. Everything outperformed by Su-35 for less.

https://vpk.name/news/180528_v_latinskoi_amerike_hotyat_zakupit_rossiiskie_mig29m_i_su30mk2.html

МЕХИКО, 28 апр - РИА Новости. ВВС ряда стран Латинской Америки изыскивают возможности для закупки в России самолетов МиГ-29М, Су-30МК2 и Бе-200, сообщил журналистам начальник управления департамента маркетинговой деятельности АО "Рособоронэкспорт" Александр Денисов, возглавляющий делегацию компании на выставке FAMEX-2017 в Мексике.

"Высокотехнологичная продукция предприятий авиационной промышленности России позволяет Рособоронэкспорту удерживать лидирующие позиции в авиационном сегменте мирового рынка вооружений, в том числе в латиноамериканском регионе. Некоторые страны Латинской Америки уже прислали заявки на закупку российских учебно-боевых самолетов Як-130. Кроме того, ВВС ряда стран изыскивают возможности для закупки в России самолетов МиГ-29М, Су-30МК2 и Бе-200", - сказал Денисов.

Interesting news. Some Latin American states show interest to buy Russian MiG-29M, Su-30MK2 and Be-200 jets. Interesting is by the fact, that Su-30MK2 production line, after delivery of the last 2 Su-30MK2 to Vietnam, is closed. This could mean KNAAZ will restart production of Su-30MK2 jets and to support it, RuAF could buy some more Su-30M2 to work with newly modernized Su-27SM3. It seems Su-30MK2 is the most optimal fighter for Latin American states, as it is capable long range multirole fighter jet, still on the top between Latin American fighters and far cheaper than Su-30SME from Irkut or Western light fighters like F-16C/D or Gripen, not to say Eurofighter or Rafale. MiG-29M is also good option, but I doubt it is cheaper than Su-30MK2.

Russia set to become leader in military aircraft market in next decade

Experts share the view that Russia’s portion of the military aircraft market will be 27% over the next ten years, the head of the Federal Service for Military and Technical Cooperation said

LE BOURGET, June 19. /TASS/. Russia is bound to take the leading position on the global military market within the next ten years, with a 27% share, head of the Federal Service for Military and Technical Cooperation, Dmitry Shugayev, said Monday.

"Experts share the view that Russia’s portion of the military aircraft market will be 27% over the next ten years. We tend to believe it, and we should be optimistic, after all, and push ourselves to strive for this figure. And 27% is the first place, by the way," he said at the International Paris Air Show in Le Bourget.

Shugayev noted that the federal agency has 98 cooperation contracts sealed with foreign countries, adding that Russia had delivered $15 bln worth of military equipment overseas during the previous year. "We are holding on to second place," he added.

The service head stressed that neither Europe nor NATO had ever occupied more than a minor share of the market share when compared to Russia’s military and technical cooperation. "Our markets are well-known: these are Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America," Shugayev explained.


More:
http://tass.com/defense/952159

Peru, Myanmar, Bangladesh interested in purchasing MiG-35s

The talks are currently underway and the MiG aircraft corporation expects them to be successful

KUBINKA, August 22. /TASS/. Peru, Myanmar and Bangladesh are interested in the MiG-35 plane, and negotiations with representatives from these countries will be held at the Army-2017 military technical forum, CEO of the MiG aircraft corporation Ilya Tarasenko said on Tuesday in the Patriot Park, Moscow Region.

Read also
Russian Defense Ministry plans to begin purchases of MIG-35 fighter jets as of 2018

"We plan to discuss deliveries of MiG-35 planes. We have a lot of negotiations on the agenda. These are our usual regions: CIS, Southeast Asian countries, Myanmar, Bangladesh and Peru," he said.

Tarasenko noted that the talks are currently underway and the corporation expects them to be successful.

The MiG-35 is a 4++ generation multi-role fighter that was designed on the basis of the MiG-29K/KUB and MiG-29M/M2 aircraft. Flight tests for the MiG-35 started on January 26, and an international presentation of the plane was held on January 27 in the Moscow Region.


More:
http://tass.com/defense/961399

All these 3 countries have old MiG-29s