Russian population

Hannibal Barca wrote:Indians immigrate more than Chinese, have better demographics, are more convenient labour force, e.g. they already start turning Singapore to Indian majority. IMO the one child policy was worse than 100 H-bombs. Commies almost spoiled it right there, still we don't know the full scale of this blunder. 

No. One child policy was enforced only on people who were at the bottom of the economic pecking order. Not on middle class or upper class.

In S-E Asia you will find people of Indian decent only in Singapore & Malaysia, around 10%-15% of the population. Brits took them there as slaves.

I understand in both Australia & Canada preference is given to Indians who are Muslims or Sikhs so that western governments can create terrorist/militant from members of these groups and use it against India.

In any case given how complex India is ( several fault lines, heterogeneous etc) I don't think this country will remain beyond 2030. It will probably disintegrate. Of course UK, US along with China will see to it.

Hannibal Barca wrote:Actually Western Europe and South India have similar flow characteristics that's why they have also similar genetic progression.

Didn't get this part. Europeans similar to Indians? That too South Indians?

Hannibal Barca wrote:PS what you say about Russians in Australia I second, although with my limited exposure to the country.

Western Government & press have universal exclusive role for Russian women as "prostitutes" and Russian men are brain-washed psychotic KGB trained zombie assassins.  Since Australia has no culture of its own they also subscribe to such western stereotypes of Russians.

"Mongoloids" have no idea were this came from.  All countries there are ethically Chinese or Indians or a mix, like Europe is either Germanoids or Slavs. Japan and Korea are 100% Chinese. Mongols are basically a mix of Turks and Chinese. Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh 100% Indians. Indonesia, Nepal, Tibet more in between. Afghanistan is an Indian-Persian mixture.

That's a wrong generalization! Mongoloid & Caucasian races have sub-races within them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongoloid#Subraces
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caucasian_race#Subraces
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_groups_in_Europe#European_ethnic_groups_by_sovereign_state
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_groups_in_Europe#Linguistic_classifications

All the Turkic peoples native to Central Asia are of mixed Caucasoid and Mongoloid [not Chinese!] origin. Turkic people display a great variety of ethnic types.[120] They possess physical features ranging from Caucasoid to Northern Mongoloid. Mongoloid and Caucasoid facial structure is common among many Turkic groups, such as Chuvash people, Tatars, Kazakhs, Uzbeks, Bashkirs, also such Mongoloid and Caucasoid features are present in some Russians in different proportions, less or more. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongoloid#Turkic_peoples
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongols

Nor the Japanese & Koreans r Chinese:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_groups_of_Japan
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korea#Demographics

The Indians r not homogeneous people, with several races & dozens of ethnic groups: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_people
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India#Languages

These people r not ethnically the same as Indians:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sri_Lanka#Languages
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan#Languages
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladesh#Languages

Australia could welcome more immigrants from L. America & ask the US who doesn't want them to help bring them in:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_American_Australians
https://www.quora.com/How-are-Hispanics-treated-in-Australia

Presently, there r ~60M people South of the Rio Grande living below the poverty line. In total, Latin Americans account for 130 million of the nearly 500 million who live in chronic poverty worldwide. https://borgenproject.org/10-facts-about-poverty-in-latin-america/

In 2014, 28.5% of the region’s population was in situations of poverty (168 million people), a percentage that increased to 29.8% in 2015 (178 million) and to 30.7% in 2016 (186 million people). Extreme poverty, meanwhile, rose from 8.2% in 2014 (48 million people) to 10% in 2016 (61 million people). https://www.cepal.org/en/pressreleases/poverty-increased-2016-latin-america-and-reached-307-population-percentage-seen

Does anyone know if the information in the link below is true?

https://www.rbc.ru/society/23/01/2019/5c489d9d9a79470c1a910c92?from=main_right

It says that in the year of 2018, the population of Russia decreased by almost 87 thousand people.

The population of Russia as of January 1, 2019 was 146,793.7, and it was the first time since 2009 that the poplation of Russia declined.

That is correct. There was a number of deaths (old people) that exceeded birth rates and with much stricter rules in immigration, many foreigners were either kicked out or still waiting to be kicked out. So they are not considered Russians. Harder to migrate to russia as well unless one is ethnic Russian through ancestry.

Quite likely, fertility rates have been declining since around 2015-16 (a global phenomenon). Depends on the annual migration figures, which I'd imagine vary quite a lot from year to year at the moment.

Russia's fertility rate is still reasonably high by European standards, though, I think. TFR is now around 1.55, when it was actually 1.7 back in 2014-15. And to be honest, 80,000 is pretty much +- 0.

   
Source: https://twitter.com/Cicerone973/status/1045813263152422912

I expect it to decline a bit further till at least 2023 or so when some of the younger generation now starts to have kids.

GustavoHF wrote:Does anyone know if the information in the link below is true?

https://www.rbc.ru/society/23/01/2019/5c489d9d9a79470c1a910c92?from=main_right

It says that in the year of 2018, the population of Russia decreased by almost 87 thousand people.

The population of Russia as of January 1, 2019 was 146,793.7, and it was the first time since 2009 that the poplation of Russia declined.

Well. There's a doubt that I always had. Does this number of the Russia Population in 2019 above includes all the migrants that live in Russia, like the 3 or 4 million of Ukranians, and all the other ilegal immigrants of Central Asia and other parts of the former USSR?
I'm asking this, because I know that each country has a way to work. For example, the United States includes all the aliens that live there.

Some of them fear deportation & avoid being counted. Also many left to fight in Syria & will never come back.

Anatoly Karlin's demographics update for 2019:

http://www.unz.com/akarlin/russian-demographics-in-2019/

My summary:

The rate of natural increase declined from -134,456 (-0.9/1,000) in 2017, to -218,394 in 2018. The population was estimated at 146,793,744 as of Jan 1, 2019, down from 146,880,432 exactly one year ago. If accurate, this would mark the first time since 2007 that the population of Russia has declined.

In reality, I suspect not, because immigration is usually underestimated. Russia’s population increased substantially after the 2010 Census, necessitating post hoc adjustments.

I calculate Russian Total Fertility Rate was ~1.57 children per woman in 2018, down from 1.62 in 2017. Overall EU fertility rate should now be in the 1.50s (natives at 1.45) and the US at 1.74 (natives: 1.64), so all three have very similar fertility rates at the moment.

Prediction: the retreat in Russian TFR observed in 2016-18 will halt, modestly recover, and stabilize at around 1.7 children per woman by the early 2020s.

I calculate that life expectancy was ~73.2 years in 2018 (up from 72.7 in 2017). Moscow’s LE was 77.9 years in 2017, up from 73.3 years – the average Russian LE today – back in 2008. One way of looking at this is that mortality trends in Russia are basically tracking improvements in Mosocw with a lag of ten years, so we could be looking at entrance into the range of developed world life expectancies by the late 2020s.

Decrease in mortality continues:

Homicide rates fell from 6.0/100,000 in 2017 to 5.2/100,000 in 2018, returning Russia to its typical historical range before alcoholization epidemic. The US also had a big drop, but Russia should still overtake in 2019 or 2020. I expect Russia to eventually converge to a homicide rate of 1-2/100,000 one or two decades down the line. Moscow already at 1.9 as well.

Russia is no longer any sort of outlier even amongst developed Western countries in terms of suicide rates.

Russian infant mortality has been rapidly improving ever since, reaching 6.0/1,000 in 2016, 5.5/1,000 in 2017, and 5.1/1,000 this year. This would actually now put Russia ahead of the US (5.9) and New Zealand (5.7), though most of the rest of the developed world and Visegrad continues to outperform it.

Abortion in Russia continues to decline to normal country levels.

Vs. Ukraine:

Great Russians have always had lower life expectancies than Ukrainians. This is a remarkably stable pattern since late Imperial times

The crossover point in 2015 at 71.4 years for both. By 2017, Ukrainians were living 72.0 years to 72.7 in Russia, and the gap will increase further in 2018.

This story is repeated across other indicators of public health. For instance, I noted that Crimea had an infant mortality rate of just 3.7/1,000 in 2018, down from 6.9/1,000 in 2013 (its last year in the Ukraine). Ukraine’s rate in 2017: 7.6/1,000, barely down from 8.0/1,000 in 2013. Russia went from 8.2/1,000 in 2013 to 5.1/1,000 last year. Russia’s “annexation” of Crimea has saved thousands of lives. [         ]

Predictions and the national projects:

My “predictions” are pretty basic. Hopefully 2019 will mark a final turnaround in the fertility collapse, though the numbers for late 2018 indicate that we haven’t quite reached bottom yet. Life expectancy, and other health indicators, should continue to improve.

The Russian government recently released its thirteen “national plans” – a massive infrastructure and capacity building program that will plow $400 billion into Russia’s roads, bridges, and hospitals over the next five years.

The two plans most relevant to Russian demographics are the following: Healthcare ($30 billion). This program aims to improve mortality from diseases of the circulatory system, dropping it by a quarter. While Russia has seen major improvements on this score (dropping from ~900/100,000 in the early 2000s to 575/100,000 by 2018, it still has a long way to go; typical rates in the EU are well less than 200/100,000.

There is a major emphasis on improving hospital accessibility and prophylactic care.

There’s even a goal of quadrupling medical equipment exports from $250 million to $1 billion annually (while that’s almost a rounding error in terms of Russian exports, this would presumably imply developing a domestic medical equipment industry – could this be a protective measure against the prospect of ramped up US sanctions?

Demographics ($50 billion). Goals include increasing healthy life expectancy, increasing the fertility rate to 1.7 children per woman. However, in terms of spending, the vast bulk of the spending – around 90% of it – will go specifically on financial support for families with children and preschooling. There will also be mortgage rates of 6% for families with two or more children.

You're back, huh?

I didn't read it that way. But in any case it's clear from those plans that the medical equipment industry going to improve considerably between now and 2024. As you said, I'd imagine a lot is still imported, and a 4x increase even in exports would probably signify a large decline in imports as well.

Karlin is very familiar with Hellevig's work and from what I've read, he's very aware that exports aren't the same thing as the overall economy, especially in Russia's case.

Both Rosatom and Kalashnikov make medical equipment. Schwab as well (all of Rostec). Just examples.

After Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan & Armenia form a new Confederation with Russia, the combined population will increase by ~9+42+3+18+33+6+3=~114M.
Most except Armenia have large ethnic Russian/Ukrainian & mixed populations:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarus#Demographics
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Moldova
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_demography_of_Kazakhstan#Census_of_1999
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uzbekistan#Demographics
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyrgyzstan#Ethnic_groups
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenia#Ethnic_groups

From the above: ~146,7M in the RF today+114M=260.7M in the new state if it would happen this year. Of course, by the time it does, the #s will be somewhat different.
For comparison, in 1990 the USSR population was ~287.7M
Btw, the 3 Muslim Stans have positive population growth:
https://www.reinisfischer.com/population-changes-former-soviet-union

GustavoHF wrote:[

Well. There's a doubt that I always had. Does this number of the Russia Population in 2019 above includes all the migrants that live in Russia, like the 3 or 4 million of Ukranians, and all the other ilegal immigrants of Central Asia and other parts of the former USSR?
I'm asking this, because I know that each country has a way to work. For example, the United States includes all the aliens that live there.

AFAIK Russian statistics only include citizens, neither legal nor illegal immigrants tho. Russians either already or will soon introduce much simplified procedure for become Russian citizen. Besides post soviet bloc - (Russian speaking immigrants) you can always let specialist for any country come to Russia , study and work. The biggest challenge wont be IMHO attracting immigrants. Once economy jump starts it is easy. The problem will be assimilation i.e. how many immigrants you can "import" not to destabilize social, ethnic, deduction situation..

The Interior Ministry calculated how many migrants are in Russia illegally

Today, there are about 10 million foreigners in Russia, about 2 million of them stay in the country illegally

https://tj.sputniknews.ru/migration/20181221/1027799228/mvd-podschitali-skolko-migrantov-nahoditsya-russia-nelegalno.html

Tsavo Lion wrote:After Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan & Armenia form a new Confederation with Russia, the combined population will increase by ~9+42+3+18+33+6+3=~114M.
Most except Armenia have large ethnic Russian/Ukrainian & mixed populations:

yup, because half of Armenia is living/working in Russia.

TL wrote: From the above: ~146,7M in the RF today+114M=260.7M in the new state if it would happen this year. Of course, by the time it does, the #s will be somewhat different.
For comparison, in 1990 the USSR population was ~287.7M
Btw, the 3 Muslim Stans have positive population growth:

with Ukraine it will tke more time. First to detox normal people minds form tens of years of russophobic propaganda. Best approach
IMHO is to steadily increase immigration flow + assimilation.

After reunification, the visa-free regime with the EU will be annulled, if not earlier, & they all will have to go to Russia to find work. Many will settle down there.

For those who don't understand Russian: he calculated the total population by taking into account 30% artificial official census increase, annual grain production, export & consumption per person (incl. to produce meat), & adding official urban & rural populations together. He got 3 figures: 90M, 86M, & 92M.
The average is (90+86+92):3= 89.3M. The lady quoted earlier stated a total figure of 89M Russians.

To correct my earlier post: ~89.3M in the RF today+114M=203.3M in the new state if it would happen this year. Of course, by the time it does, the #s will be somewhat different.
For comparison, in 1990 the USSR population was ~287.7M

There were 147 million people in the Russian SFSR in 1989.

Those figures were also doctored to look better than reality, so don't trust the Soviet statistics that lied in everything.
Even if we trust them:
Sebastien Peyrouse of the Woodrow Wilson Institute wrote: “The collapse of the Soviet Union and the achievement of independence by its republics created an unprecedented situation. ..in each year of the 1980s, about 15 million citizens changed their place of residence within the Soviet Union, and large numbers of some ethnic groups, most notably Jews, Germans, and Armenians, were successful in emigrating. An estimated 2 million Jews left the Soviet Union between 1945 and 1991
http://factsanddetails.com/russia/Minorities/sub9_3a/entry-5138.html
https://www.prb.org/russiasdemographicdeclinecontinues/

In spite of continued immigration, Russia's population has been declining for much of the past decade after peaking at 148.7 million in 1992. By the beginning of 2002, the population had fallen by 4.3 million from its peak to 144.0 million. Since 1992, the excess of deaths over births has been 7.7 million. Net immigration to the country of 3.6 million has compensated for less than half of the natural decrease. In each of the last three years, the natural decrease of the population has been over 900,000. ..
Total migration from Russia to countries beyond the FSU since 1989 has been 1.1 million, less than one percent of the 1989 population. ..
there are estimates of up to 500,000 Russian woman lured into sexual slavery since the breakup of the Soviet Union. ..
Since 1989, there has been a total net immigration to Russia from the non-Russian FSU states of 3.7 million. ..
In the 1989 USSR population census, a total of 25.3 million people living outside of Russia stated that their nationality was Russian. Since that time, there has been a net migration to Russia of 3.0 million Russians representing 12% of the diaspora population,..
https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/migration-dilemmas-haunt-post-soviet-russia

The above was published on Oct 1, 2002. Many of immigrants don't hold Russian passports & r not counted; some may & do leave & never come back. Also, before & after that date, many Russians may have died abroad or weren't buried in regular cemeteries.

But no conspirasy theory is too far fetched when it comes to Russia... obviously this is bitter western experts trying to explain the difference in population because they say Stalin and Lenin killed 30 million people... so it would make sense for there to be 60 odd million people less today... I mean what is a few million Russians here or there... they are only Russians and these don't give a shit about them...

Even Western based institutions who keep tabs on this state Russia's population at about 144M or higher. Tsvao, may I make a recommendation and take your meds and stop watching fake news? Because everyone even world bank, CIA world fact book and alike all mention Russia's population.

So the world is wrong but one person with a shitty YouTube video is correct?

Wow. Even Russian government states how many they have. And they do hold census too.

KVS is correct.

kvs wrote:
There were 147 million people in the Russian SFSR in 1989.   There clearly has been enhanced mortality and migration.   But to claim that 57 million people disappeared
is utter BS.    

cmon why only 57mln?  Id say 67m! especially if i got paid  by "independent NGO"

Tsavo Lion wrote:

There were 147 million people in the Russian SFSR in 1989.

Those figures were also doctored to look better than reality, so don't trust the Soviet statistics that lied in everything.

do you trust US stats? Im so cool US never cooks books

BTW how many millions people died of hunger uring great depression? Any stats?

Tsavo clearly is retarded.

Even doing the math the video proclaims is stupid because:
1) not everyone consumes the same
2) food production has increase considerably yet population has been stagnant so of course exports would increase
3) biggest flaw would be that it's rather easy for authorities to get names of everyone in the nation as they can count based upon who has paid their taxes, who hasn't and the calculation for pension.

Maybe we should take into account in calculation based upon the grey sector too, right? Maybe just add them in.

The calculation starts off as wrong cause it assumes the government is lying so they cut off 30% instantly.

Pathetic really.

GarryB wrote:But no conspirasy theory is too far fetched when it comes to Russia... obviously this is bitter western experts trying to explain the difference in population because they say Stalin and Lenin killed 30 million people... so it would make sense for there to be 60 odd million people less today... I mean what is a few million Russians here or there... they are only Russians and these  don't give a shit about them...

Stalin was in the office ~ 30 years, Around million people die in Russia now out of natural causes. So Stalin is responsible by 30 millions

Putin can be blamed for 20 millions so far

That's how they made it in the USA

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics

The USSR census didn't record a population drop either during the famine 30s, FYI. The 1926 Soviet census recorded 147 million people, while the 1937 census recorded at least 162 million. The 162 million figure was reportedly a figure Stalin tried to suppress, as he had expected an increase to 170 million, though there is some historical quibbling over whether the 162 million figure was a lowball estimate.
No, I don't trust the US statistics either:  
About 600,000 people died in the 1918 flu in the United States, and hardly anyone now considers it a topic worth mentioning. The government at the time even suppressed knowledge of it because it would take away from the war effort. 7 million people over 12 years translates to roughly 600,000 surplus deaths per year. And since most famine deaths are typically due to diseases brought about by weakened immune systems, I could see very easily how something like this would get ignored for not being newsworthy.
https://www.revleft.space/vb/threads/138742-7-million-people-most-likely-starved-in-the-US-Great-Depression-during-1933
http://www.pravdareport.com/world/105255-famine/

During the Soviet rule, many of those who allegedly died of natural causes may have their death certificates issued as such to hide the real causes of death & falsely recorded as such. With ~10M + 47M dead in the Civil War & WWII =~57M, + Ms more died sooner than normal after 1991. Combine that with decreased birthrate & it's easy to understand why the official #s r being exaggerated to keep the illusion that not all is so bad. Finally, food consumption varies & that's why the 86M has the biggest margin of error in it. However, it's still close to & between  the other 2 figures.