Vladimir79 wrote:
Trump isn't going anywhere soon and that is the reality. He is unhinged enough to test us in Georgia just to prove he is not a Russian agent.
What is China going to do for Turkey? Lend you money to buy infrastructure made by Chinese? The last thing Turkey needs is to be in the Chinese debt trap. It is clear as emerging market currencies crash the world still sees the US dollar as the safest bet. The only currency that has a chance of replacing it is the Euro and that would only happen if the US economy collapsed which it doesn't look like it is doing.
Of course Trump is one step away form being impeached. And his enemies wont stop for a minute. It is not about Russia. Russia here is an excuse as all Russian trace. Trump was not just to be there during 2016 elections. Manafort case + Cohen is accusing Trump because Trump is so strong?
As for USD is reserve currency because Saudis and co were selling il only for USD (co called petrodollars). IMF/WB were lending in USD. All countries trying to escape
USD payments either changed abruptly govts of had "humanitarian interventions".
US build dollar based systems since Brenton-Woods and then added Washington Consensus. US is not going to collapse but is declining fairly rapidly in geopolitical terms. Look at real GDP map: PPP Worlds GPD ~130 trlns USD - USA 20. Not bad decline from 50% in 1945 til 15% 2018. Since parallel financial system starts crumbling will speed will increase. And yes destruction of US economy although nice morally is not in interests neither Russia nor China. Its G\gradual decline is.
China is not yet the champ because it needs to build the whole world of parallel financial system. Look at BRICS/Asiatic banks. crude already started... BRICS bank is lending in USD only? nope. Welocme to Renmibi world.
China's economy is already 20% bigger then US. In 2030 is gonna be
50% bigger. IMF data is you please.
https://www.quora.com/What-will-happen-when-China’s-GDP-surpasses-the-US
OK lets agree to disagree. Turkey is not going to shut down, nothing tragically happens. US has slight chance to avoid internal political turmoil. hope it wont escape for its own good.
Euro? EU is walking on thin ice with Italy/Greece or Spain debts not to mention own French or Belgian. Draghi cut printing money form paper after trillion of € were "quantitatively eased"
Well so you call thsi healthy balance sheet?
If and only if Europe unites more less ot federal state has chance to bo so called emission center. US will decline in world terms, china will arise, EU can go both ways. India goes up as all asia.
The question is what Russia will do but this is not current tropic Im afraid.
Most of the debt is owed by Turkish banks who have reserves in European banks as collateral for the loans they are making in lira. Those assets would be seized and collapsing the lira to the level of the Venezuelan bolivar. That amounts to $80 billion.
This is story for accountants, mathematically and balance sheet wise correct. aBut we both know there is no accounting in politics. The question is what besides refugees other leverages has Erdo on EU?
Im sure he is not defenseless/
Greece has completed it's IMF bailout terms. It is currently solvent as long as there is not another global financial crisis.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-18/why-three-rescues-didn-t-solve-greece-s-debt-problem-quicktake
with impoverished population and ~200% debt/GDP unlikely is healthy. But what IMF or ECB are to say: we fucked up money?for hals of trillion € ? no they will wait 10-20 years before Greece starts repayments.