Russia Defence Forum

Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Military Forum for Russian and Global Defence Issues


+49
caveat emptor
owais.usmani
Viktor
Rodion_Romanovic
Tsavo Lion
ultimatewarrior
T-123456
Admin
Walther von Oldenburg
Tingsay
Isos
medo
Hannibal Barca
LMFS
ATLASCUB
Odin of Ossetia
The Ottoman
VladimirSahin
jhelb
Grazneyar
KiloGolf
Sinan
miketheterrible
AlfaT8
Airman
eehnie
airstrike
PapaDragon
TurkMaster
Resistance
higurashihougi
max steel
George1
BTRfan
Project Canada
antonherzen
KoTeMoRe
Backinblack
GunshipDemocracy
Rodinazombie
franco
GarryB
flamming_python
NationalRus
Werewolf
JohninMK
Turk1
Stealthflanker
sepheronx
53 posters

    Russia and Turkey

    LMFS
    LMFS


    Posts : 5158
    Points : 5154
    Join date : 2018-03-03

    Russia and Turkey - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia and Turkey

    Post  LMFS Thu Jun 14, 2018 3:16 pm

    http://tass.com/defense/1009379

    Turkey in talks with Russia on other technical issues in addition to S-400 systems

    The head of the Turkish Defense Industry Secretariat didn't name specific aircraft models

    MOSCOW, June 13. /TASS/. Turkey is interested in purchasing other military hardware from Russia in addition to S-400 air defense missile systems and is holding negotiations on other technical issues, Head of the Turkish Defense Industry Secretariat Ismail Demir said in an interview with TGRT TV Channel on Wednesday.

    "Now our negotiations with Russia are not limited only to the S-400 issue and dialogue on other technical themes is underway," he said, thus responding to a question about the probability for Turkey to buy fifth-generation fighter jets not only from the United States (F-35 aircraft) but also from other countries, including Russia (Su-57 planes).

    "I wouldn’t name specific aircraft models but I can say that negotiations with other partners on these technical issues are underway," Demir said.

    As he pointed out, the dialogue with Russia "is underway on a whole range of issues in various fields and spheres, on joint production and cooperation" in the defense industry.

    It was reported in November 2016 that Turkey was in talks with Russia on purchasing S-400 air defense missile systems. The contract’s signing was confirmed by the Russian side on September 12, 2017 and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan announced at the time that Turkey had already made an advance payment under the contract.
    ...

    The logical reaction to US threats is... to expand the military cooperation with Russia lol1
    LMFS
    LMFS


    Posts : 5158
    Points : 5154
    Join date : 2018-03-03

    Russia and Turkey - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia and Turkey

    Post  LMFS Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:43 pm

    Turkey Defence Minister, royally slamming US Very Happy


    Turkey slams US demand to nix S-400 deal as ‘blackmail’
    June 14, 17:44 UTC+3
    The Defense News web portal reported earlier on Thursday that Washington was proceeding with its plans to deliver the first 5th-generation F-35 fighter jet to Turkey on June 21

    ANKARA, June 14. /TASS/. Turkish Defense Minister Nurettin Canikli slammed the US demand to give up the deal to purchase S-400 air defense missile systems from Russia as ‘blackmail,’ the Anadolu news agency reported on Thursday.

    "Such a demand goes beyond any permissible norms of diplomacy and trade relations. The fulfilment of this demand is unacceptable. The situation can be characterized as blackmail," the Turkish defense minister said.

    Canikli also said that Turkey "is fulfilling all its commitments" and expected "timely deliveries of F-35 fighter jets" from the United States.

    The Defense News web portal reported earlier on Thursday that Washington was proceeding with its plans to deliver the first 5th-generation F-35 fighter jet to Turkey on June 21, even though it was dissatisfied with Ankara’s decision to purchase S-400 surface-to-air missile systems from Russia.

    US Department of Defense Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Europe and NATO Thomas Goffus told a panel at the Atlantic Council think-tank in Washington on Wednesday that Turkey’s purchase of S-400 missiles "is not helpful" and "our preference is that they do not acquire S-400."

    However, despite all these warnings, "it appears that the [US] Defense Department has no plans to keep Turkey from getting its first F-35 or to put restrictions on its use at Luke AFB," The Defense News reported.

    More:
    http://tass.com/defense/1009574

    And American nationalists also royally fuming about the delivery of the F-35 Laughing

    https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1007178638075154432

    Maybe I am a bad person, but I am enjoying how the external façade of this false "alliance" is finally crumbling after US tried to get Erdogan killed. What an spectacular failure for the US foreign policy, truly epic.

    BTW, the scale of Turkish military development is nothing short of impressive. Would not exclude Russia cooperating in the development of an aircraft with Turkey in the future, Erdogan even suggested to help developing the S-500 Shocked Shocked
    ATLASCUB
    ATLASCUB


    Posts : 1154
    Points : 1158
    Join date : 2017-02-13

    Russia and Turkey - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia and Turkey

    Post  ATLASCUB Sat Aug 18, 2018 6:37 pm

    LMFS wrote:Turkey Defence Minister, royally slamming US Very Happy


    Turkey slams US demand to nix S-400 deal as ‘blackmail’
    June 14, 17:44 UTC+3
    The Defense News web portal reported earlier on Thursday that Washington was proceeding with its plans to deliver the first 5th-generation F-35 fighter jet to Turkey on June 21

    ANKARA, June 14. /TASS/. Turkish Defense Minister Nurettin Canikli slammed the US demand to give up the deal to purchase S-400 air defense missile systems from Russia as ‘blackmail,’ the Anadolu news agency reported on Thursday.

    "Such a demand goes beyond any permissible norms of diplomacy and trade relations. The fulfilment of this demand is unacceptable. The situation can be characterized as blackmail," the Turkish defense minister said.

    Canikli also said that Turkey "is fulfilling all its commitments" and expected "timely deliveries of F-35 fighter jets" from the United States.

    The Defense News web portal reported earlier on Thursday that Washington was proceeding with its plans to deliver the first 5th-generation F-35 fighter jet to Turkey on June 21, even though it was dissatisfied with Ankara’s decision to purchase S-400 surface-to-air missile systems from Russia.

    US Department of Defense Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Europe and NATO Thomas Goffus told a panel at the Atlantic Council think-tank in Washington on Wednesday that Turkey’s purchase of S-400 missiles "is not helpful" and "our preference is that they do not acquire S-400."

    However, despite all these warnings, "it appears that the [US] Defense Department has no plans to keep Turkey from getting its first F-35 or to put restrictions on its use at Luke AFB," The Defense News reported.

    More:
    http://tass.com/defense/1009574

    And American nationalists also royally fuming about the delivery of the F-35 Laughing

    https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1007178638075154432

    Maybe I am a bad person, but I am enjoying how the external façade of this false "alliance" is finally crumbling after US tried to get Erdogan killed. What an spectacular failure for the US foreign policy, truly epic.

    BTW, the scale of Turkish military development is nothing short of impressive. Would not exclude Russia cooperating in the development of an aircraft with Turkey in the future, Erdogan even suggested to help developing the S-500 Shocked Shocked

    A lot to be cooperated on in the security sphere with Turkey....as for MIC-MIC cooperation.....unmanned drones, optics and precision guided weaponry stand out to me. They got a good stock of decent hardware Russians could get a good look at.

    When it comes to aircraft, Turkey's better off buying Russian hardware and if they want to do something domestic, go for CAS aircraft.... simpler, cheaper.

    The pipedream of developing 5th gen as an equal partner with Russia or a European poodle is just a dream. Assembly and some components at best ala the F35 deal w/ U.S or what Russia has with India.
    LMFS
    LMFS


    Posts : 5158
    Points : 5154
    Join date : 2018-03-03

    Russia and Turkey - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia and Turkey

    Post  LMFS Sat Aug 18, 2018 10:51 pm

    ATLASCUB wrote:A lot to be cooperated on in the security sphere with Turkey....as for MIC-MIC cooperation.....unmanned drones, optics and precision guided weaponry stand out to me. They got a good stock of decent hardware Russians could get a good look at.

    When it comes to aircraft, Turkey's better off buying Russian hardware and if they want to do something domestic, go for CAS aircraft.... simpler, cheaper.

    The pipedream of developing 5th gen as an equal partner with Russia or a European poodle is just a dream. Assembly and some components at best ala the F35 deal w/ U.S or what Russia has with India.

    You are right, Turkey got a lot of partnerships with Western companies to manufacture modern components, definitely worth for the Russians to check that out. Now that the Turks are feeling the heat of economic warfare Russia can be a very convenient partner and these technologies can be a bargaining chip for the Turks

    F-35 is going nowhere, it looks worse every day (maybe they somehow manage to save it, but from todays perspective it will be difficult without any of the two countries losing face massively). The TF-X is cool but is getting progressively difficult to imagine how they are going to finance it. Su-35/30 and AD at nearly domestic prices in exchange of cooperation in so many spheres can be a good way out of the military checkmate than a further deterioration of relationship with US could mean for Turkey.
    Admin
    Admin


    Posts : 2926
    Points : 3798
    Join date : 2009-07-10

    Russia and Turkey - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia and Turkey

    Post  Admin Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:17 am

    LMFS wrote:The TF-X is cool but is getting progressively difficult to imagine how they are going to finance it.

    Financing is the biggest question, S&P just rated them so low below junk they can't even sell their bonds.  Qatar lent them $15 billion but as the lira slides and their accounts deplete they aren't going to have enough money to buy food and oil much less stealth fighters and missiles.
    GunshipDemocracy
    GunshipDemocracy


    Posts : 6165
    Points : 6185
    Join date : 2015-05-17
    Location : fishin on Stalin´s Strait between Mexico and Canada

    Russia and Turkey - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia and Turkey

    Post  GunshipDemocracy Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:46 am

    Vladimir79 wrote:
    LMFS wrote:The TF-X is cool but is getting progressively difficult to imagine how they are going to finance it.

    Financing is the biggest question, S&P just rated them so low below junk they can't even sell their bonds.  Qatar lent them $15 billion but as the lira slides and their accounts deplete they aren't going to have enough money to buy food and oil much less stealth fighters and missiles.

    This is ad for Russia too. Govt change or policy change in Turkey is what US wants. I hope not only Quatar but also France (EU) also helps. Just to secure own interests.
    Admin
    Admin


    Posts : 2926
    Points : 3798
    Join date : 2009-07-10

    Russia and Turkey - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia and Turkey

    Post  Admin Sun Aug 19, 2018 2:34 am

    GunshipDemocracy wrote:
    This is ad for Russia too. Govt change or policy change in Turkey is  what US wants. I hope not only Quatar but also France (EU) also helps. Just to secure own interests.

    Turkey has $180 billion in foreign debt they must repay before the end of the year. They have no way to borrow money to roll that debt over. Qatar is lending $15 billion with little hope of getting it all back. Russia does not have this kind of money to not get returns, neither does France who is expecting to be repaid the previous loans.
    GunshipDemocracy
    GunshipDemocracy


    Posts : 6165
    Points : 6185
    Join date : 2015-05-17
    Location : fishin on Stalin´s Strait between Mexico and Canada

    Russia and Turkey - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia and Turkey

    Post  GunshipDemocracy Sun Aug 19, 2018 2:46 am

    Vladimir79 wrote:
    GunshipDemocracy wrote:
    This is ad for Russia too. Govt change or policy change in Turkey is  what US wants. I hope not only Quatar but also France (EU) also helps. Just to secure own interests.

    Turkey has $180 billion in foreign debt they must repay before the end of the year.  They have no way to borrow money to roll that debt over.  Qatar is lending $15 billion with little hope of getting it all back.  Russia does not have this kind of money to not get returns, neither does France who is expecting to be repaid the previous loans.

    meh help here is not paying this for Turkey but rather debt restructuring not to let country get into turmoil. 15 billions can be just enough to give something and let debts to restructure.
    Admin
    Admin


    Posts : 2926
    Points : 3798
    Join date : 2009-07-10

    Russia and Turkey - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia and Turkey

    Post  Admin Sun Aug 19, 2018 3:51 am

    GunshipDemocracy wrote:

    meh help here is not paying this for Turkey but rather debt restructuring not to let country get into turmoil.  15 billions can be just enough to give something and let debts to restructure.

    What is the point of restructuring debt when there is no hope of it getting paid off? The lira is not coming back. No one is coming to bail Turkey out. There will be mass defaults across 50% of the Turkish corporate sector. Qatar might have come in with a cash injection but that is just more money Turkey must repay at the $ exchange rate. Kicking the can down the road doesn't solve the problem.
    LMFS
    LMFS


    Posts : 5158
    Points : 5154
    Join date : 2018-03-03

    Russia and Turkey - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia and Turkey

    Post  LMFS Sun Aug 19, 2018 6:35 am

    Who are the owners of that debt? I read it was basically EU banks... so this is a either a great way to screw Turkey and EU with one hit or a really efficient one to get your allies allied against you...
    GunshipDemocracy
    GunshipDemocracy


    Posts : 6165
    Points : 6185
    Join date : 2015-05-17
    Location : fishin on Stalin´s Strait between Mexico and Canada

    Russia and Turkey - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia and Turkey

    Post  GunshipDemocracy Sun Aug 19, 2018 3:04 pm

    [quote="Vladimir79"]
    GunshipDemocracy wrote:

    What is the point of restructuring debt when there is no hope of it getting paid off?  The lira is not coming back.  No one is coming to bail Turkey out.  There will be mass defaults across 50% of the Turkish corporate sector.  Qatar might have come in with a cash injection but that is just more money Turkey must repay at the $ exchange rate.  Kicking the can down the road doesn't solve the problem.  


    You look a bit like an accountant to me. This is now not about economy but politics. Both crisis "suddenly popped up" and saving private Ergogan. Look at Greece is 10 years with no hope o payments. Turkey requires much less help, it has bigger chances to rise again and is much more geopolitically important. Demographically and economically much bigger. Also as NATO Black Sea keeper, for EU as a barrier for refugees (guess what Ergodan can do).

    And yes Turkey can pay it back. It is not about bankrupting Turkey but about Erdogan's removal by US. Not all players want to support US.
    GunshipDemocracy
    GunshipDemocracy


    Posts : 6165
    Points : 6185
    Join date : 2015-05-17
    Location : fishin on Stalin´s Strait between Mexico and Canada

    Russia and Turkey - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia and Turkey

    Post  GunshipDemocracy Sun Aug 19, 2018 3:07 pm

    LMFS wrote:Who are the owners of that debt? I read it was basically EU banks... so this is a either a great way to screw Turkey and EU with one hit or a really efficient one to get your allies allied against you...

    "stable genius" is the master of this game Smile Joe Us want to punish EU firms for Nord Stream 2 and Iran. Guess what will be stricke back...
    PapaDragon
    PapaDragon


    Posts : 13467
    Points : 13507
    Join date : 2015-04-26
    Location : Fort Evil, Serbia

    Russia and Turkey - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia and Turkey

    Post  PapaDragon Sun Aug 19, 2018 3:41 pm

    GunshipDemocracy wrote:.......
    And yes Turkey can pay it back. It is not about bankrupting Turkey but about Erdogan's removal by US. Not all players want to support US.

    Erdogan would be more than willing to support USA if it weren't for his ego getting in the way.

    I am not saying that Russia should not use opportunity to make progress in dealing with Turkey but should they go for it they better make sure they get stuff they need in advance otherwise they will get ripped off and played for idiots as usual​.


    LMFS wrote:Who are the owners of that debt? I read it was basically EU banks... so this is a either a great way to screw Turkey and EU with one hit or a really efficient one to get your allies allied against you...

    If USA is trying to screw over EU I see no reason for Russia to get involved.

    Don't interrupt your​ enemies while they are harming themselves.
    Admin
    Admin


    Posts : 2926
    Points : 3798
    Join date : 2009-07-10

    Russia and Turkey - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia and Turkey

    Post  Admin Sun Aug 19, 2018 4:43 pm

    GunshipDemocracy wrote:You look a bit like an accountant to me. This is now not about economy but politics. Both crisis "suddenly popped up" and saving private Ergogan.  Look at  Greece is 10 years with no hope o payments. Turkey requires much less help, it has bigger chances to rise again and is much more geopolitically important. Demographically and economically much bigger. Also as NATO Black Sea keeper, for EU as a barrier for refugees (guess what Ergodan can do).

    And yes Turkey can pay it back. It is not about bankrupting Turkey but about Erdogan's removal by US. Not all players want to support US.

    The politics is just a mask, the fundamentals of the economy are the meat and potatoes of the issue.  The slide of the lira didn't just pop up, it has been happening over the last decade, it has just been exacerbated by Erdogan's mismanagement of the economy to get re-elected.  Greece submitted to the IMF conditions and is paying off their debts, they have even sold islands to raise money.  Turkey does not have a public debt problem, it has a corporate debt problem which is what keeps the population employed and paying taxes.  If those banks and corporations default, which is 50% exposed right now, then you will see millions of unemployed people in Turkey that had jobs last year.  Government revenue will collapse and then they will have a public debt problem along with hyperinflation, high unemployment, energy and food shortages.  

    No, Turkey cannot pay it back.  $180 billion is due within months, no one is lending to Turkey but Qatar and the $15 billion isn't going to stop a $180 billion tidal wave of defaults.

    Erdogan is just making it a hard landing instead of soft, all of this is inevitable.
    eehnie
    eehnie


    Posts : 2425
    Points : 2428
    Join date : 2015-05-13

    Russia and Turkey - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia and Turkey

    Post  eehnie Sun Aug 19, 2018 5:01 pm

    In this kind of situations is disturbing to see the staunch capitalists calling to public powers and money to save the ruins of the private operators.

    Are not defaults part of the capitalism? Is not intervention in the economy just socialism? In these cases all the capitalist hawks want socialism to save them. When the socialism is to give Social Security and education to the citizens then is bad.

    Turkey has the option of leaving the private operators that must default to default thanks to the US economic war and then to invest in the defaulted companies at low cost with the purpose of saving the employment.

    What the IMF and other capitalist powers made to Greece was to predate the country at the cost of the Greek citizens and in defense of the corporations.

    The countries can also predate foreign private operators in defense of the citizens.


    Last edited by eehnie on Sun Aug 19, 2018 5:15 pm; edited 1 time in total
    Admin
    Admin


    Posts : 2926
    Points : 3798
    Join date : 2009-07-10

    Russia and Turkey - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia and Turkey

    Post  Admin Sun Aug 19, 2018 5:12 pm

    The sector most heavily in debt is banking, let that collapse and the whole thing stops. They have borrowed in dollars and lent in lira, now that the lira is half what it was last year there is no way they can get paid back to repay the dollars they borrowed abroad.
    eehnie
    eehnie


    Posts : 2425
    Points : 2428
    Join date : 2015-05-13

    Russia and Turkey - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia and Turkey

    Post  eehnie Sun Aug 19, 2018 5:25 pm

    Vladimir79 wrote:The sector most heavily in debt is banking, let that collapse and the whole thing stops.  They have borrowed in dollars and lent in lira, now that the lira is half what it was last year there is no way they can get paid back to repay the dollars they borrowed abroad.

    I observed lots of cases of banking ruins in our neighbor Spain in the last decade. How the situation was solved by the wrong way, without loses for the absorbers, when the observers were private operators, and with public absortions of the worst ruins with heavy loses for the public sector, that leaded even to the European rescue of Spain.

    I know perfectly when and how a gouvernment can do it avoiding loses.

    Is not this an economic war? Turkey can select which to default.
    GunshipDemocracy
    GunshipDemocracy


    Posts : 6165
    Points : 6185
    Join date : 2015-05-17
    Location : fishin on Stalin´s Strait between Mexico and Canada

    Russia and Turkey - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia and Turkey

    Post  GunshipDemocracy Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:25 am

    Vladimir79 wrote: The politics is just a mask, the fundamentals of the economy are the meat and potatoes of the issue.  []

    true it's always fight for resources . But you  need to add one more parameter time. Turkey place wont move and still is close to Iran, Syria and closes Black Sea.  And population dynamics is positive.  Those are resources powers are going to recon with in mid or longer term. Greece followed IMF and austerity because this was political not economical move. EU showed who's paying piper's tune.


    BTW What immediate economic benefit is from war Afghanistan?  short temr - hundreds of billions spent and none effects?
    Long term definitely is - No access form north to India for Iran or Russia. Cradle of war and exporting Islamist terrorists and channel to produce traffic drugs to Russia and Chin.  To nam efew







    No, Turkey cannot pay it back.  $180 billion is due within months, no one is lending to Turkey but Qatar and the $15 billion isn't going to stop a $180 billion tidal wave of defaults.


    Of course it can.  You think that banks say ok we've lost 180 blns?  and gone bankrupts ot some ask govts to subsidize them and start chain reaction for major crisis in EU? Unlikely debts will be reschedules, restructured.

    The question is on which political conditions?
    Admin
    Admin


    Posts : 2926
    Points : 3798
    Join date : 2009-07-10

    Russia and Turkey - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia and Turkey

    Post  Admin Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:52 pm

    GunshipDemocracy wrote:

    true it's always fight for resources . But you  need to add one more parameter time. Turkey place wont move and still is close to Iran, Syria and closes Black Sea.  And population dynamics is positive.  Those are resources powers are going to recon with in mid or longer term. Greece followed IMF and austerity because this was political not economical move. EU showed who's paying piper's tune.

    BTW What immediate economic benefit is from war Afghanistan?  short temr - hundreds of billions spent and none effects?
    Long term definitely is - No access form north to India for Iran or Russia. Cradle of war and exporting Islamist terrorists and channel to produce traffic drugs to Russia and Chin.  To nam efew[

    Turkey acts like Incirilik is the only place the US can put a base to get to Afghanistan while Georgia is begging to join NATO.  If the US moves in there it will undo all of the gains we have made.  Having Turkey as a buffer state was good for us because it kept the US out of the Caucasus.  Trump doesn't have a care in the world about angering nations, he does what he wants.

    Of course it can.  You think that banks say ok we've lost 180 blns?  and gone bankrupts ot some ask govts to subsidize them and start chain reaction for major crisis in EU? Unlikely debts will be reschedules, restructured.

    The question is on which political conditions?

    Banks don't restructure insolvent companies, they liquidate them.
    GunshipDemocracy
    GunshipDemocracy


    Posts : 6165
    Points : 6185
    Join date : 2015-05-17
    Location : fishin on Stalin´s Strait between Mexico and Canada

    Russia and Turkey - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia and Turkey

    Post  GunshipDemocracy Tue Aug 21, 2018 7:30 pm

    Vladimir79 wrote:
    Turkey acts like Incirilik is the only place the US can put a base to get to Afghanistan while Georgia is begging to join NATO.  If the US moves in there it will undo all of the gains we have made.  Having Turkey as a buffer state was good for us because it kept the US out of the Caucasus.  Trump doesn't have a care in the world about angering nations, he does what he wants.


    Tramp can twit anything. He is a half way form impeachment and before senate elections. He does all to survive not to rule the world. True he doesn't care abut other nations. But who cares? only realities count.
    Georgia never gets to NATO or suddenly south Ossetia and Abkhazia problem starts to get hot. Or Yemen gets missiles or Iran new fighters. There are many leverages for Russia too. Besides Turkey can be used by China as example: you can be damned by US but using Reminbi will save your ass.

    This is one of hardest hits to US hegemony so far.





    Banks don't restructure insolvent companies, they liquidate them.


    so you believe banks just like that loose 180blns USD? Like GM? Fargo Wells? Goldman Sachs? Deutshe Bank? how many French companies dies in 2008? bg ones?
    real life examples prve banks dont want to loos money.

    Grece is still insolvent and exists. Whats more EU says about success Smile
    Admin
    Admin


    Posts : 2926
    Points : 3798
    Join date : 2009-07-10

    Russia and Turkey - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia and Turkey

    Post  Admin Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:37 pm

    GunshipDemocracy wrote:
    Tramp can twit anything. He is a half way form impeachment and before senate elections. He does all to survive not to rule the world. True he doesn't care abut other nations. But who cares? only realities count.
    Georgia never gets to NATO or suddenly south Ossetia and Abkhazia problem starts to get hot. Or Yemen gets missiles or Iran new fighters. There are many leverages for Russia too. Besides Turkey can be used by China as example: you can be damned by US but using Reminbi will save your ass.

    This is one of hardest hits to US hegemony so far.

    Trump isn't going anywhere soon and that is the reality.  He is unhinged enough to test us in Georgia just to prove he is not a Russian agent.  

    What is China going to do for Turkey?  Lend you money to buy infrastructure made by Chinese?  The last thing Turkey needs is to be in the Chinese debt trap.  It is clear as emerging market currencies crash the world still sees the US dollar as the safest bet.  The only currency that has a chance of replacing it is the Euro and that would only happen if the US economy collapsed which it doesn't look like it is doing.


    so you believe banks just like that loose 180blns USD? Like GM? Fargo Wells? Goldman Sachs? Deutshe Bank? how many French companies dies in 2008? bg ones?
    real life examples prve banks dont want to loos  money.

    Grece is still insolvent and exists. Whats more EU says about success Smile

    They will offer an IMF bailout, but if Erdogan refuses there is no recourse.  Most of the debt is owed by Turkish banks who have reserves in European banks as collateral for the loans they are making in lira.  Those assets would be seized and collapsing the lira to the level of the Venezuelan bolivar.  That amounts to $80 billion.  Turkish corporations have about $20 billion in the EU that could be seized.  It would be an $80 billion write off if Turkey refuses their conditions and goes to capital controls.  The ECB is not going to make loans to wreckless banks under the control of Erdogan who will not abide by the ECBs demands.

    Greece has completed it's IMF bailout terms. It is currently solvent as long as there is not another global financial crisis.
    GunshipDemocracy
    GunshipDemocracy


    Posts : 6165
    Points : 6185
    Join date : 2015-05-17
    Location : fishin on Stalin´s Strait between Mexico and Canada

    Russia and Turkey - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia and Turkey

    Post  GunshipDemocracy Wed Aug 22, 2018 10:52 pm

    Vladimir79 wrote:

    Trump isn't going anywhere soon and that is the reality.  He is unhinged enough to test us in Georgia just to prove he is not a Russian agent.  

    What is China going to do for Turkey?  Lend you money to buy infrastructure made by Chinese?  The last thing Turkey needs is to be in the Chinese debt trap.  It is clear as emerging market currencies crash the world still sees the US dollar as the safest bet.  The only currency that has a chance of replacing it is the Euro and that would only happen if the US economy collapsed which it doesn't look like it is doing.




    Of course Trump is one step away form being impeached. And his enemies wont stop for a minute. It is not about Russia. Russia here is an excuse as all Russian trace. Trump was not just to be there during 2016 elections. Manafort case + Cohen is accusing Trump because Trump is so strong?

    As for USD is reserve currency because Saudis and co were selling il only for USD (co called petrodollars). IMF/WB were lending in USD. All countries trying to escape
    USD payments either changed abruptly govts of had "humanitarian interventions".

    US build dollar based systems since Brenton-Woods and then added Washington Consensus. US is not going to collapse but is declining fairly rapidly in geopolitical terms. Look at real GDP map: PPP Worlds GPD ~130 trlns USD - USA 20. Not bad decline from 50% in 1945 til 15% 2018. Since parallel financial system starts crumbling will speed will increase. And yes destruction of US economy although nice morally is not in interests neither Russia nor China. Its G\gradual decline is.

    China is not yet the champ because it needs to build the whole world of parallel financial system. Look at BRICS/Asiatic banks. crude already started... BRICS bank is lending in USD only? nope. Welocme to Renmibi world.


    China's economy is already 20% bigger then US. In 2030 is gonna be 50% bigger. IMF data is you please.

    https://www.quora.com/What-will-happen-when-China’s-GDP-surpasses-the-US

    OK lets agree to disagree. Turkey is not going to shut down, nothing tragically happens. US has slight chance to avoid internal political turmoil. hope it wont escape for its own good.


    Euro? EU is walking on thin ice with Italy/Greece or Spain debts not to mention own French or Belgian. Draghi cut printing money form paper after trillion of € were "quantitatively eased"
    Well so you call thsi healthy balance sheet?

    If and only if Europe unites more less ot federal state has chance to bo so called emission center. US will decline in world terms, china will arise, EU can go both ways. India goes up as all asia.

    The question is what Russia will do but this is not current tropic Im afraid.










    Most of the debt is owed by Turkish banks who have reserves in European banks as collateral for the loans they are making in lira.  Those assets would be seized and collapsing the lira to the level of the Venezuelan bolivar.  That amounts to $80 billion.  

    This is story for accountants, mathematically and balance sheet wise correct. aBut we both know there is no accounting in politics. The question is what besides refugees other leverages has Erdo on EU?

    Im sure he is not defenseless/





    Greece has completed it's IMF bailout terms.  It is currently solvent as long as there is not another global financial crisis.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-18/why-three-rescues-didn-t-solve-greece-s-debt-problem-quicktake

    with impoverished population and ~200% debt/GDP unlikely is healthy. But what IMF or ECB are to say: we fucked up money?for hals of trillion € ? no they will wait 10-20 years before Greece starts repayments.





    GarryB
    GarryB


    Posts : 40516
    Points : 41016
    Join date : 2010-03-30
    Location : New Zealand

    Russia and Turkey - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia and Turkey

    Post  GarryB Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:27 am

    Would be beneficial if Putin made some real warnings instead of just reacting to western aggression.

    News of the US moving from Turkey to the Ukraine or Georgia should lead to warnings that NATO bases in Georgia would lead to referendums on SO and Abkhazia joining the Russian Federation, or bases in the Ukraine could lead to referendums regarding the independence of parts of the Ukraine, or their joining of the Russian federation too.

    Russia should also make it clear that NATO bases near Russian borders will be actively targeted by nuclear weapons... in addition to the capital and major cities of the countries those bases are in...

    Russia should make it clear it has no intention of invading or occupying any part of the EU or Europe, but if a country in the region wants to make itself a threat to Russia with NATO forces in their territory then they become a threat that will be eliminated in the case of a conflict... ie not invaded... destroyed.

    That might make them back down, or it might make them even more aggressive... either way the people of the west will know where they stand so if they let NATO get more aggressive and their governments impose more sanctions on Russia then they were warned... it will be their choice.
    GunshipDemocracy
    GunshipDemocracy


    Posts : 6165
    Points : 6185
    Join date : 2015-05-17
    Location : fishin on Stalin´s Strait between Mexico and Canada

    Russia and Turkey - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia and Turkey

    Post  GunshipDemocracy Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:43 am

    GarryB wrote:
    to the Ukraine or Georgia should lead to warnings that NATO bases in Georgia would lead to referendums on SO and Abkhazia joining the Russian Federation, or bases in the Ukraine could lead to referendums regarding the independence of parts of the Ukraine, or their joining of the Russian federation too.


    I think this is is on table. But US doesn't seem to be willing for compromise.




    Russia should make it clear it has no intention of invading or occupying any part of the EU or Europe, but if a country in the region wants to make itself a threat to Russia with NATO forces in their territory then they become a threat that will be eliminated in the case of a conflict... ie not invaded... destroyed.

    dangerous game - ths is a trump card (not Tump) for Us propaganda machine: Russia is aggressive. And most of EU conreis want proper economical reactions withc Russia but elites are Us dependent.  Step by step with Sputnik work/RT alliances with "right wing" parties in EU thing can move forward.

    Visit on Austrian Wedding w coincidental? FPO freedom party (not pro EU/US) they say fascist lol1 lol1 lol1





    Kneissl was nominated by the populist anti-mass migration party FPÖ as a non-party member for the post of Foreign Minister of Austria in the government of Sebastian Kurz. Kneissl is the third woman to hold this function.[8] Her nomination might also be linked to the reserves expressed by head of state Van der Bellen on other FPÖ-endorsed candidates for the post. [1] Kneissl was praised by FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache as "a great personality, a female Kreisky perhaps in the future when it comes to mediation, acceptance and advertising for Austria abroad." [1]


    +++

    In her public writings and appearances Kneissl has often sharply criticised the European Union and raised controversy with remarks on migration.[1] In July 2016, after the Brexit referendum, she criticised European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker as "cynic of power", "rowdy" and "arrogant", who "behaves as a Brussels Caesar, who has made it his goal to break agreements, if it seems useful."[7] A quote from her book "My Middle East" also caused controversy, as she criticised Zionism, founded by Austro-Hungarian publicist Theodor Herzl, as a "blood and soil ideology" based on German nationalism in the 19th century.[1] On the issue of refugees, migration, and integration she was also accused of serving stereotypes. At the height of the refugee crisis in 2015, Kneissl pointed out that most of them are economic migrants and that asylum seekers are "80 percent" young men between the ages of 20 and 30. In September 2015, she said on public television that one of the reasons for the revolts in the Arab world was "these many young men", "testosterone-controlled", "who no longer managed to get a wife today" because they have neither work nor their own home, and thus could not achieve "status as a man in a traditional society".[1] S





    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karin_Kneissl






    it will be their choice.


    anybody asks people in democracies? with elites in Poland sendign children to american schools and having accounts in the west?

    lol1 lol1
    Hannibal Barca
    Hannibal Barca


    Posts : 1457
    Points : 1467
    Join date : 2013-12-13

    Russia and Turkey - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia and Turkey

    Post  Hannibal Barca Thu Aug 23, 2018 5:48 am

    Lira stabilised, end of story.

    Washington's attempt failed even more miserably than SA attempt with Qatar. They are also losing economic war with China BIG TIME. First results start coming out and they look very bad, USA economy is not stimulating as it was hoped.

    Trump in panic mode, whining that Erdoğan deceived him, and begs for quick release to not lose face, release Brandson and everything will be fine again twittes where really pathetic. 

    Hey there is nobody more anti-Turkish than me here, but I always analyse objectively.

    Sponsored content


    Russia and Turkey - Page 11 Empty Re: Russia and Turkey

    Post  Sponsored content


      Current date/time is Mon Nov 18, 2024 6:25 am