GarryB wrote:Maintainence and attrition replacements will still be needed, plus hopefully export orders will have most plants busy.
Certainly civilian products will also keep the lines busy too.
Uralvagonzavod produces civilian equipment as an example:
- Railway cart systems like tankers and carts (transportation of goods via rail)
- Construction working equipment like excavators and miniloaders
- Railmover
- Tractors
This company is known for producing T-72 and T-90 type tanks and heavy tank like systems.
Kamaz produces military grade trucks but also produces majority of Russia's shunting trucks and semi's used for logistics. This same goes for UAZ and Zil and all the rest.
In the future, there should be more. At one point, Izmash used to produce cars and motorbikes, but it doesn't look like it anymore. Would like to see other products from Izmash on the market like cutlery, tools, etc.
Kyo wrote: Kimppis wrote: Viktor wrote: Kimppis wrote:I did some VERY unscientific calculations...
It would be interested to see those calculations and perhaps even make some corections with the help of other members.
I showed pretty much all of them in that post.
As I said, VERY unscientific.
Russian military spending was supposed to be $90 billion before the fall of the ruble. That still stands, because of Russia's domestic military industry. By purchasing power, Russia GDP is (was, before ruble lost its value) around 40% higher than in dollar terms. So I simply increased that 90 billion by 40%. I did the same thing with China.
They certainly get more bang for their buck than the western militaries, in dollar terms, as we can see with the current Russian modernization. So around $130 billion could be a more accurate figure when we compare Russian military spending to some other countries, especially in the west.
Interesting. Generally speaking international economic comparisons can be very misleading because they use the exchange rate, which in monetary terms might mean something, but in real economic terms it means almost nothing. I fully agree with Kimppis that Russia certainly gets more punch for their buck than western militaries in US dollar terms, but the purchasing power of the ruble in the internal Russian economy is much higher than it would appear to be when converted to an international currency. It all depends on the prices' level (including manpower costs), which in Russia are significantly lower than in western economies. Therefore, I would agree to raise Russia's GDP by something around 40% in dollar terms for the effect of international comparisons, although I would raise Russia's and China's military budget by a much higher level due to much lower wages. The cost-effectiveness of investing the equivalent of one dollar in the Russian or Chinese military is tremendously higher than investing the same dollar in western military countries. That's why Russia, with its much lower budget is building a military might that raises concerns in the US/EU.
Problem with Nominal GDP comparisons is that once your currency drops in value greatly, so does its GDP nominal value compared to other countries (which are all compared within USD). This is a flawed logic as this is mentioned under GDP PPP:
For example, if the value of the Mexican peso falls by half compared to the US dollar, the Mexican Gross Domestic Product measured in dollars will also halve. However, this exchange rate results from international trade and financial markets. It does not necessarily mean that Mexicans are poorer by a half; if incomes and prices measured in pesos stay the same, they will be no worse off assuming that imported goods are not essential to the quality of life of individuals. Measuring income in different countries using PPP exchange rates helps to avoid this problem.
Which is the exact thing happening in Russia. Just because the value of the Ruble dropped in half, does not mean that their wealth or the nation itself is half as rich as before. This is important as Russia produces all goods for military and imports have dropped significantly for military production (technically, reason for MCST and Mikron is to replace imports of semiconductors for military production. Elbrus 2C+ processor is used for radar systems as an example).
At 32% of budget (if it is even close to that, don't know total budget numbers), that is still less than what US spends on a budget for their military. Russia also has a significant amount spent on social welfare (people are given free education through the state run universities, now free housing for families with 3 or more kids, public medical care system so you don't go broke for a basic doctors visit, etc). After all of that, that still leaves the nation with roughly 35% left in budget to spend on infrastructure projects, venture funds, etc. That is still a lot of money. Not to mention that the previous two ties into the third aspect in bringing in a higher budget and helping reduce governments work in infrastructure development as many companies who work in the military and civillian sphere, will get enough money to expand productions and increase workforce (which creates more taxable income), example is Almaz Antey as of recent (building two new facilities as example), and medical needs and schooling needs which creates new technologies that can be used in multipurpose.
One major aspect to all of this is the cost of a soldier in Russia and the Cost of the equipment vs anywhere else. A T-90A tank, which is equivelent to any other modern MBT, costs roughly $2M per unit, while an Abrahms or Leopard II (which are usually on par with the T-90A in performance) is estimated at around $4 - $5M per unit. That is double or more than average price of T-90A. Another one that is coming up recently is the India's Rafale Bid. A Rafale costs roughly $150M per unit in what the contract states (mind you, that also includes maintenance and what not), while the Su-30MKI (which is arguably either better or the same) costs about a 1/3 of that (this is export price, which is higher than Russian prices by normal) at a $50M per unit. Su-30MKI has a farther ferry range, high payload, and about similar electronics onboard (actually, both use same Thales HUD, Domacles pod and possibly EW equipment) while Su-30MKI has a more advanced PESA radar with the Bars-M while Rafale is possibly more low observable than Su-30MKI (not verified). PAK FA aircraft at first may cost upwards to $100M per unit, and you will get yourself a 5th gen jet with advanced AESA radar similar to the Irbis-E Hybrid Radar on Su-35S, far more advanced electronic suite, its own Optoelectronics pod, internal weapon bays, greater range and speed than a Rafale, while still being $50B cheaper. After the devaluation of the Ruble, it now allows Russian military equipment to be even more cheaper for outsiders to purchase, thus exports will be greater. In the coming while, Iraq and Egypt are interested in more Russian mil equipment, and that can expand to Argentina, Brazil, further orders with India and China.
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How can anyone believe such bullshit? A nation that cannot feed its army ..and depend everything from the outside.. do not have anymore anything of value to sell other than its womens ,that is on the middle of a war and losing territory and needs US and EU to get energy from Russia???
