If the Tu-PAK-DA is designed subsonic, this project will fall clearly under the performance of the new generation of the Tu-160 (which will be able to carry the same hypersonic weapons) and this will be the main reason of the failure of the Tu-PAK-DA. The Tu-160 will be ordered instead.
You are mistaken.
They are not just developing two versions of the Tu-160 to see which is better.
they are rebuilding the tu-160 because they want a long range supersonic strategic cruise missile carrier... their problem is that they only have about 14 of them which is not a viable force... they need more than double that for it to be worth the effort.
The problem is that having 150 Tu-160s would be expensive and also not totally ideal.
What would be more useful is to have 50 supersonic Tu-160s and to have maybe 80-100 subsonic but more stealthy bomber/cruise missile carriers.
they are going to reduce the costs of the PAK DA by making it very similar to the Tu-160 in terms of structure and design, though removing the swing wing capability would make it much cheaper and much simpler to buy and to operate.
And future aircraft carrier at the turn of 2025-2030's not necessary to have such characteristics as supersonic speed. It should be as long as possible and unobtrusively to be on duty in the air, so that, without going into the affected area, to release their means of destruction on their targets.
Ie their future bomber does not need to be supersonic. Critical features mentioned are endurance with being in the air for long periods and to be unobtrusive... ie stealthy. Being able to use long range stand off weapons and attack the enemy without going into enemy territory are the key.
Why make the PAK DA supersonic when its missiles can be hypersonic?
However, we are so coordinated with the industry organization of all work that the preparation for the production of the Tu-160 and a new image for the PAK DA is carried out simultaneously. The maximum number of process steps will be the same.
As I suggested a while back they will make the PAK DA in the same factory that makes the upgraded Tu-160M2s.
The Tu-160M2 as the new supersonic bomber completely re-engineered as per the article and another version Tu-160M3 looking much the same and containing the same electronics etc systems but a much simpler and cheaper build with lower thrust engines and a fixed wing both optimised for sub-sonic performance and duration.
Agree, but for the stealth to be effective it needs all internal weapons carriage so the PAK DA model could have an enlarged internal volume to allow more fuel and more weapons to be carried... along with more emphasis on stealth and a lower speed requirement should make it a very useful addition to the fleet.
The faster aircraft could be fitted with air to air missiles to defend themselves... but more importantly the Blackjack is able to fly at supersonic speed for quite a distance but an upgraded model with more powerful engines and a design update could be made to supercruise at say mach 1.7... which would greatly extend range and reduce flight times to launch positions...
It is the same reason that leaded to the development and the orders of the BTR-82 (variant of the BTR-80), in a moment when the Bumerang was being also developed.
In many ways the BTR-82 is the T-90AM or Su-35. They have taken the base platform (ie BTR-80, T-90M, and Su-27SM) and removed as many faults and problems and then upgraded as far as practically possible without going to a new design.
In this case the Tu-160 has plenty of growth potential even just with modern manufacturing techniques and new materials. The fact that they intend to unify the design with the new PAK DA suggests that there is not too much wrong with the Blackjack, but I suspect changes will be made to get the best possible result...
But, at same time, we can say safely that the orders of the Tu-160 will switch to the Tu-PAK-DA only if the new aircraft overperforms clearly the old. If not the new aircraft will have the same future of the BTR-90, if not worse (without orders).
Actually I think it would be better compared with the BMP-1 and BMP-2 situation.
The BMP was revolutionary, but its design was hampered by the missile technology of the time.
The requirement was to be able to kill the M60 tank with the main armament. The AT-3 missile could not engage a target effectively within 300m or so. That meant the main gun of the BMP had to penetrate an M60 tank within 500m or so so it had to be a 73mm rocket launcher. Later models of the ATGMs led to the 73mm gun being replaced by the 30mm cannon on the BMP-2 but it was actually found that the 30mm and the 73mm guns actually complimented each other. The 30mm was good for a range of targets but some targets required more HE power so the 73mm gun was still useful.
The final result was the BMP-3 with a 30mm cannon and a medium velocity 100mm gun firing a good HE shell.
The point is that stealth and speed are useful. Having a fast strategic bomber is useful but having a slower stealthier bomber would be useful too.
They will be able to combine costs on these two types and they will be different enough to be both useful and capable. And being new builds they can operate for half a century to come.
Mobility increases safety, this is valid for all the branches. On land the trend should be to go to full to mobile launchers except for the missiles that are too big for it. And on air platforms I do not see the Russian Armed Forces accepting some downgrade in mobility from the current modern launchers (Tu-160).
Having a few supersonic bombers does not make sense... the blackjack is not fast enough to evade decent medium range SAMs. It will use standoff range to avoid them.
Having stealthy and fast bombers complicates the problems of the enemy.
Having two types means the Bears and old Blackjacks can be replaced... and the Backfire can be replaced in service by a subsonic aircraft able to carry a heavy conventional payload...
Only if you count not the costs of the loses in combat.
In the strategic role both aircraft will use 5,000km range stand off cruise missiles.
I would bet that the Tu-160 has not been the aircraft with higher operational costs for Russia in Syria.
The fuel bill would make your eyes water.
I would bet that the Tu-160 has not been the aircraft with higher operational costs for Russia in Syria.
If the Russian S-400 battery in Syria was a NATO battery neither the Tu-160 nor Tu-95 would be at risk because both would be launching their cruise missiles from 2,000km range plus.
Speed would no more protect the Blackjack than it would the Bear...
It is the stand off range of the weapons that will keep both types safe.
Stealth is effected by distance... a PAK DA from 4,000km is not going to be detected by anything...
One of the reasons the Tu-95 is in service is its low cost operations... the same could be said for the B-52, though I dare say the fuel bill from 8 thirsty engines is not likely better than from 4 efficient turbofans in the B-2 but they found all sorts of ways to make the B-2 expensive...