Ukrainian Aviation Industry: Discussion

Turkey can still sell what components it already built for, & any F-35s delivered, if any, to other users.

Turkey has not had any F-35s delivered and the parts they have made wont fit any other type of aircraft... and I suspect the US would let any F-35 user know of the dire consequences if they decided to buy such parts from Turkey so Turkey could make some money on it... honestly that money is gone and even if they sold everything they had they likely wouldn't get a fraction of what they put in back.

Since they have 10 A-400Ms, new factory isn't needed, they can be in low rate production while other planes r built/repaired/upgraded.

According to Wiki they had 10 on order and have received 9... I have not seen any evidence that anyone has refused to supply parts for A-400Ms in Turkish service and I would doubt they would try that sort of shit. Turkey would probably leave HATO and their geographic location is just to valuable to HATO and the US for them to let that happen.

According to Antonov's estimates, the world market demand for An-70 aircraft for the period up to 2035 is 300 aircraft . With more orders, more factory spaces can be added.
Twin engine variant is also an option.

Yeah, they were going to buy 50 and they knew the Russian VDV was going to buy 250... its purpose was paratroop dropping at lower flight speeds than most aircraft that size can manage... everyone else would prefer it was faster because that means it gets to where it is going quicker.

It is a Paratroopers plane... how many paratroopers does Turkey have?

Ukraine might be a prosperous country with the best soil in this world and the industry of a superpower,

Saudi Arabia would be the same if they suddenly refused to sell oil to anyone...

More than anything Ukraine's aerospace industry now reminds me of Russia's in the 90s

Except that the Ukraine willfully did this to themselves... by choice...

it's sales in Western markets panned out to be disappointing anyway.

Like many promises from the west... give up communism and be welcomed back into the international community... that was right up there with no HATO expansion.... honest... and then it was... we made no such promises....

The Mi-38 and Ka-62 never panned out as joint projects and only now is Russia starting to field them in domestic versions; it lost a lot of time in the hope of co-operating with Europe.

Indeed but then Europeans wont even help each other and will stab each other in the back when it suits, so why expect them to be nice to Russia...

Of course the main problems with the Ka-62 and the Mi-38 is that they are not really urgent because the Mi-17 is still going strong, while some western helicopters have been adopted in place of the Ka-62 sized model...

Europe wont help fund a potential rival to compete for contracts around the world... they will actively destroy any cooperation that might be created with Turkey and China...

It is a Paratroopers plane... how many paratroopers does Turkey have?

It cam lift 10T more than the A-400M; with 4 jets as the An-188, probably 13-15T more.
Even if Turkey keeps her A-400Ms flying, An-188s will add new capabilities & more flexibility; Turks had an interest in them since 2018.  
Ukraine doesn't have many paratroopers either but she uses her 3 An-70s instead of selling them & building more smaller An-178s.

With the three An-70s, no one would buy three one off planes with no chance of getting cheap spare parts for... everything for them will be custom made and eye wateringly expensive.

With the An-188s... well lets see when they get the first one built and flying before we even talk about production...

If they put PD-35s on it it could replace the An-22 and C-17 around the world... but if is the biggest two letter word in the English language...

..the An-170 variant was seen as a maritime patrol aircraft.

it could still be reworked/purposed as a cargo plane. Turkey, Pakistan &/ China could buy some/all those designs & licence produce them in Ukraine &/ Turkey/Pakistan/China- Russia is out of it but there may be others to invest in the type. There must be something besides A-400Ms on the market that is better & more affordable, free of any sanctions.

I thought the An70 existed only as a single aircraft.

With just one aircraft there is nothing to talk about... the effort to reengine it would be enormous and probably cost several hundred million dollars... it would rapidly become the most expensive aircraft flying because essentially it will be a one off custom designed plane.

Of course the aircraft will become more expensive if they have to replace all the russian systems, and it will probably need a couple of years of testing before it can be certified, but it is not an impossible task, just not practical.

Turkey might buy 10 at most and the Ukraine can't afford any at all... even if Iran committed to buying 10 it would not even be cost effective to make a factory to build them... they would all be hand made and therefore enormously expensive... for a plane inferior to an Il-476 which they could buy for a fraction of the price and time delays assuming no problems with anything... which is unlikely.

Yes, there r only 2 An-70s now.
Antonov [had] plans to produce a number of versions, including the An-70-100 with new avionics to reduce crew sizes; the An-70PS search and rescue version; An-70T commercial transport; and An-70TK convertible civil passenger/transport.

I would not risk a single dollar on Antonov plans.

Most new projects r risky & require gov. support in 1 way or the other.

The problem for Antonov is that the Ukrainian government is dodgy and not reliable so their support or otherwise would mean nothing anyway...

Russia will most probably develop a maritime patrol aircraft based on the Tu-204. (In addition they will possibly do a smaller MPA based on the Il-114 ), I do not see why they should be interested in another Antonov.

I can say for sure they want to get rid of all their current holdings of Antonov aircraft.

Even if from tomorrow a new government promising love and friendship to Russia would be installed in Kiev, it would not be worth to have a large project dependent on them. Use them as alternative suppliers of minor parts and possibly final assembly for a few (ilyushin) aircrafts destined for their own country maybe, but nothing more.

They would have to offer to dissolve the Ukraine and become part of the Russian Federation and I can't see that happening, and the amount of money they would need to invest to get Antonov and Motor Sich up and working again would be mind blowing.... in the short term it would be a clever move from the west to slow down Russian growth and development, but they are too short sighted to see it.

it could still be reworked/purposed as a cargo plane. Turkey, Pakistan &/ China could buy some/all those designs & licence produce them in Ukraine &/ Turkey/Pakistan/China- Russia is out of it but there may be others to invest in the type. There must be something besides A-400Ms on the market that is better & more affordable, free of any sanctions.

Could and will are two very different things... you could put a rocket motor on a bus to make it fly but when it comes back down it will be totally destroyed... which is a complex and expensive way of destroying a bus... so you could but odds are you wont even if you need to destroy the bus.

China could make its own planes... it does not need to piss money into the Ukrainian money hole... I am sure they have already learned that lesson.

Turkey bought S-400 missiles from Russia and Pakistan bought Mi-17 helicopters from Russia... why do you think it would be so hard for them to buy Il-476 aircraft from Russia, and Il-276 aircraft... and even Tu-330s when the new engines become available....

Even if the new Russian engines take another 5 years it would still be faster than the Ukraine could make new planes with new engines put into serial production anywhere.

Unfortunately the project was frozen indefinitely due to pro-Ukrainian lobbying, but may have a second chance now...

Well that lobbying would have folded now... there is no need to support the An-70 in Russia now... in fact I would think a new project to use those propblades would be a valuable use for the development money spent to make them... try them on a Bear perhaps... an MPA version perhaps where speed is not the priority and endurance and efficiency is more important.

I doubt Putin will allow sale of IL-476s to Turks with current tense relations & pressing need for new transports in the VTA. The same with France & A-400Ms.
Turkey OTH wants to develop her own industry- hence her interest in the An-188 license production.

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:https://ukraina.ru/news/20201105/1029514675.html

Kiev changes again the head of Antonov for the second time in a few months.

By the way, Dimitri Kiva, that held this post a few years ago, moved in 2016 in Azerbaijan (was he responsible for the Azeri UAV strategy? )

On another news, apparently Kiev wants to order 3 new An-178... will they manage to satisfy this order?

Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. The Kiev regime typifies the svidomite retardation sweeping the ex-Soviet republics aside from
Russia. These clowns think that destroying all of their existing industries will open up the way for fresh NATzO friendly ones. This
level of retardation is simply stellar. We already see what happens when you get a makeover into a 4th world country, the only
jobs you have are sweatshop ones.

Maybe they plan on launching brand new line of wood stoves so they need skilled management to supervise the cutting edge production process?

I doubt Putin will allow sale of IL-476s to Turks with current tense relations & pressing need for new transports in the VTA.

AFAIK they are negotiating another batch of S-400 that may include domestic production of the missiles... why would Russia not sell transport planes to Turkey?

The same with France & A-400Ms.
Turkey OTH wants to develop her own industry- hence her interest in the An-188 license production.

You already said there was a Chinese plane in production that was essentially based on the An-70... why would Turkey not simply buy some of those?

BTW they ordered 10 A-400Ms and have 9 of them... what makes you think they need more?

On another news, apparently Kiev wants to order 3 new An-178... will they manage to satisfy this order?

Will be telling... if they actually make them then there is a chance Turkey and other countries might order some too... But I wont be holding my breath...

BTW they ordered 10 A-400Ms and have 9 of them... what makes you think they need more?

There are rumours that EU will sanction Turkey and forbid the sell of spare parts for their A-400M that was used to bring their syrian proxies in Libya.

Very soon they will have none flyable in service.

Until the sanctions are applied they are meaningless.

If they are applied their simplest and cheapest option would be to buy those Chinese transports you say are modelled on the An-70... which would be very amusing because they could probably buy 50 for the price of the 10 A-400M aircraft... and with such a purchase they could probably justify replacing avionics and systems with Turkish systems and equipment and get into talks of international sales of a Turkish/Chinese version.

They could also buy Il-476 aircraft instead of A-400Ms and do the same... replace some Russian components with Turkish components and offer to sell such modified aircraft to countries that would not normally buy Russian aircraft but are friendly to Turkey like Pakistan and Saudi Arabia and places like Malaysia and Indonesia etc etc.

When the US said Turkey couldn't have their F-35s because they bought S-400 I thought that was a lucky escape for Turkey because F-35 will just be too expensive to operate for such countries... and the S-400 is a very good system. But getting Il-476s or that Chinese transport instead of the A-400M might be another good deal for them to save money and get better aircraft for a better price...

I mean Turkey was making wing components for a fifth gen fighter... there will be parts of large transport aircraft they could probably easily make for themselves too...

If they are applied their simplest and cheapest option would be to buy those Chinese transports you say are modelled on the An-70... which would be very amusing because they could probably buy 50 for the price of the 10 A-400M aircraft... and with such a purchase they could probably justify replacing avionics and systems with Turkish systems and equipment and get into talks of international sales of a Turkish/Chinese version.

I doubt they r at that level with the PRC; in any case, the PLAAF needs them more & it'll be a long time before any could be delivered. China could also sanction them later with parts sales &/ support ban.

They could also buy Il-476 aircraft instead of A-400Ms and do the same... replace some Russian components with Turkish components and offer to sell such modified aircraft to countries that would not normally buy Russian aircraft but are friendly to Turkey like Pakistan and Saudi Arabia and places like Malaysia and Indonesia etc etc.

they r not in the same class, & Turkey doesn't need these heavy fuel guzzlers; the 2 last nations u posted already ordered A-400Ms; the others can get a few 2nd hand IL-76s from other operators & modify/modernize/upgrade them in Ukraine for le$$.
The An-188 is the safest & cheapest option for Turkey- Ukraine isn't in a position to sanction any1, & will be so for as long as she exists.

Turkey won't need more than 10 An-188s; for those, Ukraine & Turkey would get parts (if not stockpiled already) before starting producing them. Some, like avionics could be cannibalized from their A-400Ms &/ C-130s.

Both Ukraine & Turkey knew of the danger of sanctions on parts, yet went ahead with mutual interest in the type. Either the ratio of foreign parts isn't big, or they expect to get them regardless, &/ find their substitutes.

I doubt they r at that level with the PRC; in any case, the PLAAF needs them more & it'll be a long time before any could be delivered. China could also sanction them later with parts sales &/ support ban.

First of all why would China impose sanctions on Turkey... that is a game the west plays... Russia and China generally only impose sanctions in response to sanctions.

Second it is not a big deal... if China does not want the sale then Il-476s will certainly be much cheaper than anything Ukraine could make and anything Turkey buys from the EU.

As I mentioned their biggest problem is volume... they likely only need 10-20 at most which is not really enough to justify too many changes and modifications.

operators & modify/modernize/upgrade them in Ukraine for le$$.

Ukraine doesn't have the capacity to upgrade anything, and would likely end up ripping Turkey off.

The Il-476 is a much more capable aircraft than the A-400M and is probably more fuel efficient as well.

The Il-76 is an excellent plane that is popular and widely used... the Il-476 is even better.

The An-188 is the safest & cheapest option for Turkey- Ukraine isn't in a position to sanction any1, & will be so for as long as she exists.

Wrong on so many levels. The An-188 is a suggestion... it does not exist and if Turkey can't afford to order 500 and pay for production facilities to be built then it is unlikely to ever be economically viable. The Ukraine is on a very short leash with the US at the other end... after picking S-400s over F-35s and now trying to buy non EU transports I really don't think the US will let the Ukraine bypass HATO weapons buying protocol.

The Ukraine isn't in a position to make car licence plates let alone a new transport plane design that is largely untested.

Turkey won't need more than 10 An-188s;

That is a bad thing... if they had orders for hundreds of An-188s then some investors might put up some money to create production facilities, but for an order of 10 for Turkey and perhaps 3 more for the Ukraine it simply would not be worth it...

for those, Ukraine & Turkey would get parts (if not stockpiled already) before starting producing them.

From where? Who has parts for An-188s?

Some, like avionics could be cannibalized from their A-400Ms &/ C-130s.

Which means their A-400Ms and now C-130s become unusable faster because parts are being stripped to make a new plane that will need a complete redesign if it is going to be fitted with A-400M and C-130 parts... and if the problem is that they can't get parts for their A-400M then why on earth would they include parts from the A-400M in their alternative replacement.... that is just stupid.

That is like Venezuela saying... hey we have American F-16s we can't use any more because they are not supplying parts and support any more... instead of just buying off the shelf equivalents that wont be sanctioned like MiG-29M aircraft, you would be suggesting they get Iran to make an F-5 variant that uses parts from their F-16s and F-4s to fly... a frankenstein piece of shit that would never fly... but the Iranians are suggesting it so it should be a good idea...

Turkey does not need to do anything at the moment because the EU has not imposed any sanctions on them and even if they did they could say they are leaving HATO and are going to close all HATO bases in Turkey and send all foreign troops home and the EU will drop all sanctions and be a good bitch for a change.

Of course for most of those aircrafts there are already existing Russian parts that could be delivered...since Russia was involved in their creation.

The Ukraine wont cooperate with Russia in their programme with Iran to produce An-140s... why would they cooperate with Russia in a programme to make An-188s for Turkey?

Ukraine would not be happy seeing Russia make money out of what they see as their plane even though they can't make it themselves.

Or alternatively western firms will be happy to design and produce dedicated solutions, if Ukraine and or Turkey can pay of course... and hoping that no sanction will block the delivery after the parts will have been already paid, of course...

The only countries in Europe that can make parts for a transport plane... already do... it is called the A-400M. Why would they help Turkey evade the sanctions their own countries are imposing on Turkey?

Both Ukraine & Turkey knew of the danger of sanctions on parts, yet went ahead with mutual interest in the type. Either the ratio of foreign parts isn't big, or they expect to get them regardless, &/ find their substitutes.

It is all just talk at the moment... most likely from Turkey to try to convince Europe not to impose sanctions on the A-400M.

The Ukraine has said a lot of things over the years... including that Russia is invading their country and trying to steal the Donbass region too...