IF US+NATO leaves Afghanistan with Pakistan in dominant position in Afghanistan a new sort of Taliban will come into being which will be friendly to Pakistan as it also will be supplied militarily and economically by Pakistan.
That is not a new Taliban... it is the same old Taliban.
The CIA drones killing innocent civilians in Pakistan are trying to get Taliban based in Pakistan. The Taliban operate openly in Pakistan because Pakistan supports them and has supported them in the past.
It will be a new problem for IRAN as well.
It is the same old problem for Iran and Russia.
The US did a huge favour for Iran in both Afghanistan AND in Iraq, which is why Iran has done diddly squat to interfere.
Saddam was a Sunni muslim... like Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.
NOT a Shia muslim like Iran.
The US did Iran a favour by removing the Sunni muslims from power in Iraq and Afghanistan, and when they leave Iran can expect a Shia majority government in Iraq because the Shia are the majority...
In Afghanistan... well no one can guess what will happen there... most of the west believed that when the Soviets left in 1989 that the muj would sweep straight into power within a year, but with the Soviets gone they spent more time fighting amongst themselves and the puppet regime stayed in power till the mid 1990s against all experts best estimates.
A fully supported and funded Taliban could easily sweep aside the current opposition as it is mostly US/UK based... when they leave however, I think there will be turmoil, but I think the US will leave behind enough "advisers" to allow the current regime to survive a while, but it all depends about the outside support for the Taliban from Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, and how that compares with the support the other factions get from Russia, Iran, and the US.
If Russia and the US support the same factions they might hold out longer than most believe... especially if Iranian backed factions can be brought on board too... if not then it will be an all out multiple way conflict that will destroy all that has been built and Afghanistan will stay poor and fked up.
Have you heard that all Afghanistan leaders have been assassinated. No one has died natural death.
Very few warlords in war torn countries die natural deaths.
Russia's main worry will be Central Asia turning "politically" Islamic.
The Talibans harsh rule of Afghanistan while they were in power is the best defence against the spread of their power. The Taliban were welcomed into power as liberators but pretty soon the people realised that even communism is not so harsh as the Talibans form of rule.
Poverty is rampant in Central Asia and I don't be surprised if they are exploited by "rich" Arabic speaking countries down the line based on their shared religion similarly like Afghans. Look current generation of Central Asia are not very religious, having been brought up with Soviet values. but are bets are off when you consider newer generation. Central Asia is up for grabs, frankly speaking and to put it bluntly.
The terrible irony is that there is enormous wealth beneath their feet in Afghanistan, but it is made worse because the people of Afghanistan have no chance to benefit from it no matter what happens. Either the Taliban will rule and might exploit it on the side to generate revenue, or America will win and western companies will go in like they do in oil rich countries and bribe officials and take most of the wealth for themselves...
Garry, Do you really think drug trade is the biggest worry for its neighbors?
Yes.
This isn't cold war part two... the new threat isn't the spread of radical islam... the threat is law and order and quality of life. Solve those problems and Russia will be happy, and apart from the flow of drugs from Afghanistan then Afghanistan has little to interest Russia. Russia should be helping Tajikistan to better patrol its rugged borders with UAV technology and indeed UCAV technology, as well as training and equipping border patrol personnel.
For Afghanistan it can be a customer for small arms and helicopters and vehicles, but I can't see Russia going back in there again... the last time it was a country on their border... now it is a country on their neighbours border.
They can certainly offer a helping hand to Karzai and let Afghanistan join the CSTO and similar orgs, but at the end of the day the Taliban are not fighting Russia, so civil relations should be possible if they prevail too.
You dont have to invade another country to do things. e.g. Pakistan never invaded Afghanistan.
That is quite true, but Russia is not allowed a sphere of influence so because Afghanistan is not a direct neighbour then interests can only be commercial.
No, not for India or Iran or some others for that matter. Look it is their decision to leave or stay after all. But they have a big hand in problems in Afghanistan, they should stay there, not to mention it is going to create even bigger problems in whole region and for their own interests in the region.
I doubt Iran prefer US/UK forces in Afghanistan over the Taliban and in many ways the same is true for Russia. Afghanistan was a perfectly containable problem when the Taliban had almost total control, and I don't see why that would be any different if they seize power again.
Of course if they do try to seize power again with US/UK forces out of the country it is highly likely the US will stop them. I rather doubt the US/UK forces will pull out completely, they will have special forces "advisors" left behind able to call in air support from nearby... either UAV air bases in Afghanistan or Tajikistan as eyes and ears at the very least.
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