JohninMK Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:58 pm
As an Englishman I wish you guys had voted for independence as I believe all should have a choice. There may well be, as said above, lots of oil under the sea to the west of Scotland but North Sea experience show that it would be years, if not decades, before it was being pumped out and turned into tax revenue. Also, it will be very expensive to do so. The problem that Scotland would have is trying to maintain its current level of prosperity until then. The following puts it pretty bluntly and there is a very good chart at the link showing the effect of different oil prices.
Oil Price Crash and SNP Independent Scotland
Nothing illustrates the magnitude of the potential catastrophe that was the SNP's economic programme for an Independent Scotland (I.S.) that was reliant on an oil price well NORTH of $120 so as to turn Scotland into the promised land of milk and honey, the picture being painted was of an Independant Scotland (I.S.) of a paradise on earth, not that far removed from reality then that which the Syrian I.S. paints for the worlds gullible muslims that crave a fast track to paradise.
With every dip in the oil price SNP propaganda responded with the price drop being just temporary instead as we have seen a year on the economic collapse of an Independent Scotland would have been spectacular even worse then that of Bankrupt Greece, e SNP's Economic Baldrick-esk Master Plan for an Independent Scotland that was wholly based on reaping huge rewards from North Sea oil exports where SNP propaganda had convinced many Scots to Vote to effectively commit economic and social suicide by voting Yes in last Septembers referendum that came close to achieving the catastrophe on the basis of propaganda implying upwards of £7 billion in North Sea oil tax revenues that would be raised to finance Scotland's budgetary black hole, which in the fever pitch of the campaign had reached the heights of £11 billion so as to exaggerate the degree to which Scotland could prosper and fill the void left by the withdrawal of the English subsidy that currently amounts to £9 billion per year.
Even the Governor of the Bank of England stepped in at the start of the year by warning "the Scottish economy was heading for a “negative shock”.
The problem with SNP economic propaganda is that it was based on a oil price being well NORTH of $100 per barrel, however a sub $50 oil price does not just mean that an Independent Scotland would have made half the forecast tax revenues i.e. £3.5 to £5 billion, instead the reality is that an Independant Scotland today would be forced to bear COSTS in support of a collapsing oil industry, just as the UK government has stepped in to support the Scottish oil industry to the tune of £1.5 billion. So an Independant Scotland would today have a negative cash flow from North Sea oil of about -1.5 billion a year and it is this that illustrates the magnitude of the catastrophe that Scotland only just missed if they had fallen for SNP nationalist fanaticism.
However the rhetoric from SNP fanatics has not changed and given the impending May 2017 EU referendum then Scotland could still vote to commit suicide and thus trigger a series of 'inevitable' consequences that turns the video warning into a reality, much as which has taken place in Syria and Ukraine.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article52068.html
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