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The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

sepheronx

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Post n°101

Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

sepheronx Tue Dec 17, 2013 2:55 pm

Hannibal Barca wrote:So in other words if the pro-American dogs of West Ukraine decide to join EU, join NATO and use MOTOR SICH and ANTONOV and Ukrainian soil to harm and if possible submit Russia then the best Russia should do is to advice Russians in Ukraine to leave their homes and settle somewhere in Siberia where there is plenty of land in abundance and probably let the food hot in the oven to welcome uncle Sam's soldiers.

That's why New Zealand will never rule the world

I may not entirely agree with the idea, he has a point. It may just be a losing battle and it may be in Russia's best interest to watch the country burn from outside. On that note, continue to fund the East in hopes that it will split from rest of Ukraine.

Antanov and Motor sich are no longer real competitors. Actually, may be bad for Ukraine overall as Antanov could be forced merge with EADS and that would be that for Ukrainian industry, while Russia produces pretty much whatever they needed from Motor sich, as they saw this coming long ago (Thanks to Yushenko of course). Only real threat is certain markets thanks to Ukraines tank Industry that Europe may try to gain a foothold in, as well as farming.

TR1

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Post n°102

Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

TR1 Tue Dec 17, 2013 3:19 pm

Lol what is Motor-Sich and Antonov going to do?

Ukraine doesn't make any choppers that actually use their engines. If Russia and Ukraine go there own ways, you think Europe is going to adopt Motor-Sich to their designs? Nope, say goodbye to any real future, since they make most of their money via Russia.

Same with Antonov, nobody wants their An-148, they sure as hell don't want the An-70 competing with the A-400.

Regular

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Post n°103

Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

Regular Tue Dec 17, 2013 3:28 pm

GarryB wrote:Most of Eastern Europe had better living standards than Russia and Soviet republics... when the cold war ended did those eastern european countries thank Russia?

For me it would be like hostage thanking it's captor. But I can thank Russia for swift military withdrawal with no provocations. I can thank for weapons they left for our newly formed military. Biggest thank goes for border demarcation as Kaliningrad bit is tricky one. I can thank for giving our capital back from Poland too.
But I can't blame Russians. Before that Poland annexed our capital, Germany took over port city and the government while had army that was willing to fight, they ordered to surrender and then fled. It if it wasn't Red army, it would be someone else marching our streets. Victims weren't saints too.

Hannibal Barca

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Post n°104

Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

Hannibal Barca Tue Dec 17, 2013 3:33 pm

OK guys I reverse the argument.
If Russia's hand is so much better than Europe to this struggle then what exactly you afraid of?
And why Europe is still on the fight?
And why if Americans have no grip in the matter should win half Ukraine for free?

Hannibal Barca

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Post n°105

Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

Hannibal Barca Tue Dec 17, 2013 4:14 pm

OK just watched the press conference. It is sealed. Russia will "adopt" Ukraine backed -obviously- by China's economic mighty.
Indeed, the Eastern superpowers will not profit financially by this, but is an important intermediate step securing your status while you work towards the conclusive resolution of European Union.

sepheronx

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Post n°106

Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

sepheronx Tue Dec 17, 2013 4:15 pm

Hannibal Barca wrote:OK guys I reverse the argument.
If Russia's hand is so much better than Europe to this struggle then what exactly you afraid of?
And why Europe is still on the fight?
And why if Americans have no grip in the matter should win half Ukraine for free?

I dont believe they should. As well, the fight for Ukraine from EU and USA makes sense for people outside of Russia - to corner Russia to force it to make decisions bases not on their own good. When Russia is cornered, economic embargoes could be forced and Russia would have to meet US demands. There is also possibility with aid of Ukraine, to destabilize multiple areas of Russia to seek independance and thus able to pick resources as they please, while average Russian will pretend it is all good for them, less and less territory for themselves, less say in the world, ect. EU is first step, NATO will follow short after. Ukraine will house large military formations from various countries mofe hostile to Russia, and Russians on here will start crying about it, even though it was their own incompetence that helped drive this mess

I show no sympathy anymore. Russia will lose due to forced economics and they will end up losing even more. Tomorrow it will be Belarus and Kazakhstan, later on parts of Russia itself.

Tinfoil hat maybe, but point of NATO was to combat Russia and keep it down. In many opinipn, best way to deal with Russia is make it insignificant. To do that, is to strip it away of its resources and land mass.

You need to understand that many Russians do not see long term, only short. Many of them are seeing this as a victory because Ukraine is poor. What they dont see is that it is the continuation of circling Russia and trying to make it insignificant. Problem they cant grasp is that many of them think that economics is unbiased and they can sell to anyone anywhere, but if many borders are blocked and most of their partners cannot be reached or dealt with, then see their money go bye bye. As well, Russia isnt domestic consumption reliant. Watch as its economy craps out because no one buys from them anymore.

sepheronx

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Post n°107

Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

sepheronx Tue Dec 17, 2013 4:40 pm

Sorry if that came off as offensive, but too many with same short term mindset.

Im getting real emotional over this. I think ill stop.

Last edited by sepheronx on Tue Dec 17, 2013 5:03 pm; edited 1 time in total

Viktor

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Post n°108

Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

Viktor Tue Dec 17, 2013 4:49 pm

I guess this is it. Very Happy

Ukraine scores $15 billion from Russia, 33% gas discount

Ukraine gets $8bn investment from China

Hannibal Barca

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Post n°109

Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

Hannibal Barca Tue Dec 17, 2013 4:53 pm

Yeah Viktor already said it in the last post of the previous page that should have been unnoticed cry

Of course like always I "decorate" it with my own comments Wink

TR1

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Post n°110

Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

TR1 Tue Dec 17, 2013 4:57 pm

Viktor wrote:I guess this is it.

Ukraine scores $15 billion from Russia, 33% gas discount

Ukraine gets $8bn investment from China

Yay, more propping up of the failed Ukrainian economy.

sepheronx

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Post n°111

Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

sepheronx Tue Dec 17, 2013 4:57 pm

Viktor wrote:I guess this is it.

Ukraine scores $15 billion from Russia, 33% gas discount

Ukraine gets $8bn investment from China

Dont see how the chinese deal will affect the decision on EU or what not, but $8B is a great start for Ukraine.

Viktor

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Post n°112

Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

Viktor Tue Dec 17, 2013 5:24 pm

sepheronx wrote:Dont see how the chinese deal will affect the decision on EU or what not, but $8B is a great start for Ukraine

China HKND Group also said they are considering up to 10 bin $ investment in Ukraine (during the visit of Janukovic to China) .

When you see sepheronx, Russia and China tides are better than ever in history as their goal is the same.

They coordinate their foreign policy toward Japan, Syria, Libya etc and I would not be surprised if this is just another demonstration of the same.

sepheronx

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Post n°113

Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

sepheronx Tue Dec 17, 2013 5:29 pm

Would be interesting, if it was coordinated between china and russia. Botg money is drop in a bucket but a lot for Ukraine.

Now Russia needs to use money to invest in border areas and prop up importantareas of Ukraine, to make sure it will get money back from investments plus not have to continuously bail the country out.

Firebird

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Post n°114

Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

Firebird Tue Dec 17, 2013 5:52 pm

I actually wonder how much of the media sensationalism has clouded people's judgements.
Its only a few W Ukrainians who REALLY want a separate state. Sure they might poison a few Central Ukr. minds.

I really dont think it would be bad for the West Ukraine to disappear (but NOT become NATO focussed), provided Central, S and E remain Russia focussed.

Moving on, I think Russia has a fair bit of leeway in terms of what it can do to prop up/regenerate the Ukraine. Much of Europe sees the Ukraine as a liability. And the Americans will just cause trouble wherever they can. (Not ALL Americans, just the American political class).

The emergence of China in all this is interesting.. As I've always said, I think long term Russia should be a partner of the EU, ASEAN and India. Sorry, but I think China is too powerful, too much into "showing face" to be given too much freedom long term. However, the 2 CAN work together against the American meddling. Hopefully in time, America's foreign policy will mature in regards the modern Russia, and Cold War nonsense will end.

So I wonder, if China is Russia's ally in sorting the Ukraine out, what will China expect back, if this cooperation is to have a long term validity?

Everything seems a little vague and ambigious at the moment. But I get a feeling the Kremlin isn't over worried. That suggests they have various plans. As someone said (probably Lavrov), "Americans play poker, Russians play chess..."

etaepsilonk

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Post n°115

Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

etaepsilonk Tue Dec 17, 2013 5:56 pm

Wow, that is a lot of money. Has Ukraine agreed to join CU?

Firebird

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Post n°116

Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

Firebird Tue Dec 17, 2013 6:06 pm

etaepsilonk wrote:Wow, that is a lot of money. Has Ukraine agreed to join CU?

I'm sure its got various terms attached. For instance, the EU's modest offer meant something like 40% gas price increases to consumers etc.

The loans will possibly be secured against assets. Certain terms will need to be met. And the money would come in tranches ie chunks, if targets are reached. That is standard with these types of deals.
I think Russia has been hit for more than 15bn in the past - on arms deals when there has been a regime change etc in the M East.

The sad part of it all was that Russia actually wanted to help many millions who are... basically Russian, and many more millions who are certainly not anti-Russian.

I wonder if the Ukraine could eventually federalise in some way, instead of partition? Perhaps the problems were exacerbated by financial difficulties. Actually, I'm sure they made things much worse. Maybe now, things can be cleared up.

Last edited by Firebird on Tue Dec 17, 2013 6:09 pm; edited 1 time in total

Viktor

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Post n°117

Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

Viktor Tue Dec 17, 2013 6:07 pm

Putin: Russia, Ukraine are strategic partners

Bit by bit Ukraine is falling back in line ... Very Happy

Firebird

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Post n°118

Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

Firebird Tue Dec 17, 2013 6:10 pm

Viktor wrote:

Putin: Russia, Ukraine are strategic partners

Bit by bit Ukraine is falling back in line ...

I think some people are digging out their Putin voodoo dolls over in Lvov.. Laughing

TR1

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Post n°119

Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

TR1 Tue Dec 17, 2013 6:25 pm

Firebird wrote:

etaepsilonk wrote:Wow, that is a lot of money. Has Ukraine agreed to join CU?

I'm sure its got various terms attached. For instance, the EU's modest offer meant something like 40% gas price increases to consumers etc.

The loans will possibly be secured against assets. Certain terms will need to be met. And the money would come in tranches ie chunks, if targets are reached. That is standard with these types of deals.
I think Russia has been hit for more than 15bn in the past - on arms deals when there has been a regime change etc in the M East.

The sad part of it all was that Russia actually wanted to help many millions who are... basically Russian, and many more millions who are certainly not anti-Russian.

I wonder if the Ukraine could eventually federalise in some way, instead of partition? Perhaps the problems were exacerbated by financial difficulties. Actually, I'm sure they made things much worse. Maybe now, things can be cleared up.

How about helping the many more millions of ACTUAL Russians inside Russia?

Every penny that is inserted into Ukraine would pay itself back more, and without numerous strings attached, if it was invested into Russia itself. We are massively underdeveloped in many sectors, its not like we have reached a point where direct money injection leads little future gain.

We are already bankrolling Bateka and his Kingdom, I guess Ukraine is next.

etaepsilonk

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Post n°120

Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

etaepsilonk Tue Dec 17, 2013 6:46 pm

TR1 wrote:

Firebird wrote:

etaepsilonk wrote:Wow, that is a lot of money. Has Ukraine agreed to join CU?

I'm sure its got various terms attached. For instance, the EU's modest offer meant something like 40% gas price increases to consumers etc.

The loans will possibly be secured against assets. Certain terms will need to be met. And the money would come in tranches ie chunks, if targets are reached. That is standard with these types of deals.
I think Russia has been hit for more than 15bn in the past - on arms deals when there has been a regime change etc in the M East.

The sad part of it all was that Russia actually wanted to help many millions who are... basically Russian, and many more millions who are certainly not anti-Russian.

I wonder if the Ukraine could eventually federalise in some way, instead of partition? Perhaps the problems were exacerbated by financial difficulties. Actually, I'm sure they made things much worse. Maybe now, things can be cleared up.

How about helping the many more millions of ACTUAL Russians inside Russia?

Every penny that is inserted into Ukraine would pay itself back more, and without numerous strings attached, if it was invested into Russia itself. We are massively underdeveloped in many sectors, its not like we have reached a point where direct money injection leads little future gain.

We are already bankrolling Bateka and his Kingdom, I guess Ukraine is next.

Before coming to any conclusion, why don't we search for additional information, such as, to what terms UA has agreed? Because I SINCERELY doubt, that those money would be given to Ukraine just for free.

Firebird

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Post n°121

Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

Firebird Tue Dec 17, 2013 8:04 pm

TR1 wrote:

Firebird wrote:

etaepsilonk wrote:Wow, that is a lot of money. Has Ukraine agreed to join CU?

I'm sure its got various terms attached. For instance, the EU's modest offer meant something like 40% gas price increases to consumers etc.

The loans will possibly be secured against assets. Certain terms will need to be met. And the money would come in tranches ie chunks, if targets are reached. That is standard with these types of deals.
I think Russia has been hit for more than 15bn in the past - on arms deals when there has been a regime change etc in the M East.

The sad part of it all was that Russia actually wanted to help many millions who are... basically Russian, and many more millions who are certainly not anti-Russian.

I wonder if the Ukraine could eventually federalise in some way, instead of partition? Perhaps the problems were exacerbated by financial difficulties. Actually, I'm sure they made things much worse. Maybe now, things can be cleared up.

How about helping the many more millions of ACTUAL Russians inside Russia?

Every penny that is inserted into Ukraine would pay itself back more, and without numerous strings attached, if it was invested into Russia itself. We are massively underdeveloped in many sectors, its not like we have reached a point where direct money injection leads little future gain.

We are already bankrolling Bateka and his Kingdom, I guess Ukraine is next.

OK maybe I'm confusing you with what I'm saying. What I mean is that some in the Ukraine are saying that Russia is an exploitative enemy. I'm saying that thats bullshit, because the Ukraine is a matter of personal pride and identity for Russia.

On your pt, I think the deal would only have been done if it made complete economic sense to Russia
ie for every rouble spent, it would be safe and provide an instant return. The commercial idea of synergy ie changing cash into assets, which instantly have a higher worth. Like a corporate merger etc.

In other words, clinching a Ukraine deal means more money for those inside the Federation... imediately.

Furthermore, Russia has ready access to the whole world's capital markets these days. Investors are interested in synergy, profiles of risk vs return, sharing expertise etc etc. I think what happened was that Russia had more synergy with the Ukraine than the EU did.

I think Putin knows that prosperity needs to be spread across Russia, across all social groups. I'm not saying he doesnt have some faults. But I think the Ukraine would have been driven by what is best for Russians, what is best economically, not some personal vanity project.

The presidential address was interesting in terms of what the govt seems to be interested in investing in. Unfortunately, many of these things will take time, but atleast things seem to be moving in the right direction..

http://rt.com/politics/official-word/presidential-address-federal-assembly-177/

Firebird

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Post n°122

Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

Firebird Tue Dec 17, 2013 8:05 pm

etaepsilonk wrote:

Before coming to any conclusion, why don't we search for additional information, such as, to what terms UA has agreed? Because I SINCERELY doubt, that those money would be given to Ukraine just for free.

Maybe a little money was given for free. But yes, it will have terms. Not exploitative terms, just ones that mean it isn't dead money. It will be interesting to see what is announced in the forthcoming period.

etaepsilonk

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Post n°123

Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

etaepsilonk Tue Dec 17, 2013 8:35 pm

Firebird wrote:

etaepsilonk wrote:

Before coming to any conclusion, why don't we search for additional information, such as, to what terms UA has agreed? Because I SINCERELY doubt, that those money would be given to Ukraine just for free.

Maybe a little money was given for free. But yes, it will have terms. Not exploitative terms, just ones that mean it isn't dead money. It will be interesting to see what is announced in the forthcoming period.

Well, the thing is, currently, gas market price is 400 USD. Russia agreed to lower it to 270 USD. Plus, 15 bln is not "little money" AT ALL. Unless Russia's government is composed of idiots (I mean, not actual idiots, but idiots of governmental standart lol!

), there's simply NO WAY, that Ukraine could recieve this amount of benefits without offering something BIG. Question is, what UA actually offered?

Sevastopol is out of question, the fleet can comfortably sit there until 2050 already.
Any relations with GTS are unlikely. With "streams" and expanding LNG facilities, the Ukrainian pipes are slowly becoming of less relevance.
Promise "not to join EU" is unreliable.
Recognition of Ossetia and Abhazia? Probably not Rolling Eyes

Military transit to Transnistria? It's not that Moldovan army is a significant threat, anyway.
Prevention of possible destabilisation? Currently, Russian army can pretty much mop the floor with Ukrainian army already.
Maybe they sold the Crimean peninsula? Very Happy

I doubt that, coz there would be quite a lot of problems with integrating it in Russia's economy. And besides, I don't think that in this field Putin would go for anything but gold medal, if you know what I mean Twisted Evil

I really struggle to see any offerings, other than joining Customs Union, to be honest dunno

Last edited by etaepsilonk on Tue Dec 17, 2013 9:09 pm; edited 5 times in total

flamming_python

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Post n°124

Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

flamming_python Tue Dec 17, 2013 8:41 pm

Russia got robbed today

Go EuroMaidan, Go! Very Happy

zino

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Post n°125

Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

zino Tue Dec 17, 2013 9:29 pm

etaepsilonk wrote: Sevastopol is out of question, the fleet can comfortably sit there until 2050 already.

But without new ships. And the issue is not related to Sevastopol but to the entire BSF asset (Novorossiysk would be the same).

etaepsilonk wrote: Any relations with GTS are unlikely. With "streams" and expanding LNG facilities, the Ukrainian pipes are slowly becoming of less relevance.

agree

etaepsilonk wrote: Promise "not to join EU" is unreliable.

Uh? Agree of course.

etaepsilonk wrote: Recognition of Ossetia and Abhazia? Probably not

Insignificant IMO

etaepsilonk wrote:I really struggle to see any offerings, other than joining Customs Union, to be honest

Yanuk cannot (doesn't want to) do such a promise

According to regnum.ru here is the list (without details of course, copy and paste English translation)

By the end of the sixth session of the Russian-Ukrainian Interstate Commission, which took place today, December 17, signed 14 documents, reports IA REGNUM .

1. Minutes of the sixth meeting of the Russian-Ukrainian Interstate Commission.

2. Russian-Ukrainian plan activities for joint celebration of the 200th anniversary of the birth of Taras Shevchenko in 2014

3. Action Plan for the settlement of trade restrictions in bilateral trade between the Russian Federation and Ukraine for 2013-2014.

4. Agreement between the Government of the Russian Federation and the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine on the implementation of measures of state support for the resumption of normal production aircraft An-124 with D-18 and their modifications.

5. Protocol between the Government of the Russian Federation and the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine on the supply of goods for industrial cooperation in 2014.

6. Memorandum of understanding to enhance cooperation in the field of shipbuilding between the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Industrial Policy of Ukraine.

7. Agreement between the Government of the Russian Federation and the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine on joint action by organizing the construction of transport crossing through the Kerch Strait.

8. Agreement between the Government of the Russian Federation and the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine on Early Notification of a Nuclear Accident and the exchange of information in the field of nuclear and radiation safety.

9. Protocol between the Government of the Russian Federation and the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine on the definition of the checkpoint on the Russian-Ukrainian state border "Kujbyshevo" for joint control of the supervisory bodies of the Parties.

10. Protocol between the Government of the Russian Federation and the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine on Amendments to the Agreement between the Government of the Russian Federation and the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine on cooperation in joint control of persons, vehicles and goods in the Ukrainian-Russian state border.

11. Agreement on Cooperation between the Federal Service of the Russian Federation for Drug Control Service of Ukraine and the State Drug Control.

12. Joint action plan of the Ministry of Civil Defence, Emergencies and Disaster Relief of the Russian Federation and the State Service of Ukraine of Emergencies in the context of an intergovernmental agreement on cooperation in the prevention of industrial accidents, natural disasters and elimination of their consequences.

13. Memorandum of Understanding between the Federal Space Agency (Russian Federation) and the National Space Agency of Ukraine on cooperation in the field of aerospace industry.

14. Additions to the contract dated 19 January 2009 between the open joint stock company " Gazprom "and the National Joint Stock Company" Naftogaz of Ukraine "buying and selling natural gas in 2009-2019

Would be nice to have some other members opinion about that content.

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