The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

etaepsilonk wrote:On the contrary, it's pretty understandable, actually.

The thing is, almost every Ukrainian politician is a corrupt crook, only looking after his/her bank account. And such people are selling themselves very easily. Considering that highest capital accumulations are now in pro-Maidan people's hands, and huge western aid package is on the horizon, those politicians know very well where they can get the most benefits.

EVERY politician is a crook. That's not the point here. Point is that Russia has its interests (strategic/economic) there, there's also a large naval base, and a sizable Russian minority (which is actually a majority in that particular region). And so far - we've seen NO MOVE to defend any of those. I find this *very* hard to believe!


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Regular wrote:I hope these things wont be over with total victory by Kiev. Other regions seem to bow to their new overlords. Russian population will fold without serious fight.
What can Russia do? I fail to imagine non military response. Ukraine already is economic corpse, soft power won't do much.

That would be true if there weren't any ethnic Russians there. But with a great number of them - there's PLENTY Russia can do. Still it does NOTHING.
Which leads me to believe that this is a part of some plan.

Regular wrote:
What can Russia do? I fail to imagine non military response. Ukraine already is economic corpse, soft power won't do much.

As I was saying before, Russia can't invade Ukraine, it will loose.

The way I see it, the only way Russia wins this round is by the appearance of Ukrainian Fidel Castro  

etaepsilonk wrote:

Regular wrote:
What can Russia do? I fail to imagine non military response. Ukraine already is economic corpse, soft power won't do much.

As I was saying before, Russia can't invade Ukraine, it will loose.

The way I see it, the only way Russia wins this round is appearance of Ukrainian Fidel Castro   

Russia didn't invade Syria and still didn't lose.
There are ways other than invasion that can be put into play here.

macedonian wrote:

etaepsilonk wrote:

Regular wrote:
What can Russia do? I fail to imagine non military response. Ukraine already is economic corpse, soft power won't do much.

As I was saying before, Russia can't invade Ukraine, it will loose.

The way I see it, the only way Russia wins this round is appearance of Ukrainian Fidel Castro   

Russia didn't invade Syria and still didn't lose.
There are ways other than invasion that can be put into play here.

Well, Assad does have a spine, doesn't he?


And, of course, other options indeed do exist.
Probably the easiest of them is to recognize interim government and call it a day.

@macedonian So You think they are waiting for Russian blood? International community doesn't care much about russians anyway. And if new government will gain control Russians will be under their iron boot so it will be very hard to organise their own maidan.
@etaepsilonk I hope You've ment to say Russia will loose in non military way. Military wise it would be walk in the park. Small fast 888 operation would be perfect if Russia could find good pretext.
Who is Ukrainian F.Castro? Is it the guy from Pravy Sektor?

Regular wrote:
@etaepsilonk I hope You've ment to say Russia will loose in non military way. Military wise it would be walk in the park. Small east 888 operation would be perfect if Russia could find good pretext.

Actually, I've precicely meant, that Russia would loose militarily.
Todays' wars are fought not only by armies, but also by coalitions. And 888 war is actually a good example of that. Remember, that initially, Tskhinvali was defended not by Russian army, but by S. Ossetian army, with small peacekeeper contingent in support.
Without those, "Didi Gupta" bridge would have fallen in the hands of Georgians and re-capturing that narrow pass would have been EXTREMELY difficult.


"Who is Ukrainian F.Castro? Is it the guy from Pravy Sektor?"

No, I meant an Ukrainian analogy of Cuban revolution of 1959.

Also, I assume that you view F. Castro negatively. If so, may I ask why? In my opinion, he's one of the greatest people of our time   

Depict me a single scenario where Russia could be defeated by Ukrainian army?
Training, morale, competence and equipment advantages are on russian side. Fast covert operations by VDV and marines could decapitate ukrainian army faster than Georgian.

I don't view Castro negatively, but he is the reason of embargo of Cuba. I've understood that you refered to embargo rather than to a leader. Ukrainians have no such leader like him. I don't even know whom they trust now.

Actually the best scenario is that Ukrainian Generals could meet with Russian Gernerals, and they can discuss the dire consequences of the Neo-Nazi mob making Ukraine join NATO and bringing in ABM bases. The warning of thermonuclear war is needed to wake them up from their slumber and recapture Kiev from the fascists, we need a Ukrainian General Sisi to take over under emergency powers. This is a last resort effort, I would never advocate military takeover with emergency powers if the consequences weren't this dire, thousands may die to save millions from thermonuclear hell-fire and megadeath.

Regular wrote:Depict me a single scenario where Russia could be defeated by Ukrainian army?

By using superior duct-taped BTR-4s?   

Nah, just kidding. In fact, I wasn't talking about Ukrainian army. Sure, Russian army would mop the floor with it, but it's not really important.
What is important, is that Russians would have to hold Ukrainian territory, that would definitely require large resources (maybe even a mobilisation). Also, there they would definitely face a  self-sustaining partisan warfare, supported by guess who?   
So, the way I see any potential Russian invasion, is that it would take long time, large casualties, and VERY vague accomplishemts.


Alternatively, leaving operations to "free Ukrainian army" of some sort would be SO MUCH easier and cheaper.
The only trouble is, so far there are no grounds for such organisation.





"I don't view Castro negatively, but he is the reason of embargo of Cuba."

No, he isn't. America is the reason for embargo of Cuba.


To magnum:
"Actually the best scenario is that Ukrainian Generals could meet with Russian Gernerals, and they can discuss the dire consequences of the Neo-Nazi mob making Ukraine join NATO and bringing in ABM bases. The warning of thermonuclear war is needed to wake them up from their slumber and recapture Kiev from the fascists"

Not gonna happen.

Regular wrote:I don't view Castro negatively, but he is the reason of embargo of Cuba. I've understood that you refered to embargo rather than to a leader. Ukrainians have no such leader like him. I don't even know whom they trust now.

The overwhelming majority of the world opposes the embargo, even America's closest allies Great Britain and Israel oppose the embargo. The real reason they wan't the embargo is because is that they can't control Cuba and in over 600 assisnation attempts have failed to kill Castro, and strategically Cuba could make a world of difference in a hot war with Russia or China. If the NATO ABM base expansion keeps continuing the only practical measure would be to have a massive ABM/Naval/Air force base from either Russia, China, or both in Cuba to send a message to the Strangelove's and Bonapartistes at the Pentagon.

magnumcromagnon wrote:
If the NATO ABM base expansion keeps continuing the only practical measure would be to have a massive ABM/Naval/Air force base from either Russia, China, or both in Cuba to send a message to the Strangelove's and Bonapartistes at the Pentagon.

Development of FOBS seems a much better and cheaper option.


Oh, just noticed that:
To werewolf:
NOT IN THIS THREAD!
GARRYB

I foresee a ABM shield in Ukraine aimed at "protecting Europe from Iran" in other words, aimed at Russia in the coming years.

I agree, Russia needs to invest more money in Anti-Radiation missiles and PGM's to deal with the ABM threat.  Make them long range as well, so they can strike while in Russian territory where it is safer.  As well, more Electromagnetic pulse technology to deal with electronics of the enemy.

More satellites and UAV's wouldn't hurt either.  As well, start replacing older Delta's with maybe a newer delta (since Bulava is having issues and Borei will take more time) and more sineva's, while removing silo based ICBM's and increase more mobile ICBM's.

At this point, Ukraine is a failed concept. Russia needs to count its losses and start increasing strategic weaponry at its borders (not at least until someone in the west does something first) and look at alternatives to dealing with the ABM threat. At this point, Ukraine will continue to slip into economic disaster so it will be a burden on EU so money will keep flowing from EU pockets, all the while there will be continuous animosity among the people in the country.

sepheronx wrote:I foresee a ABM shield in Ukraine aimed at "protecting Europe from Iran" in other words, aimed at Russia in the coming years.

ABM shield in Ukraine is pointless, unless it would be against IRBMs only.

etaepsilonk wrote:

sepheronx wrote:I foresee a ABM shield in Ukraine aimed at "protecting Europe from Iran" in other words, aimed at Russia in the coming years.

ABM shield in Ukraine is pointless, unless it would be against IRBMs only.

Most ABM shields are like that. Besides tests of old two stage scud like missiles, they have not tested anything close to a Topol missile. But the perception is still there and may give ideas to others that it is alright to attack Russian's or push even more against russia cause they have a "defense" against them. Even if it isn't 100% guarantee of an intercept.

sepheronx wrote:

etaepsilonk wrote:

sepheronx wrote:I foresee a ABM shield in Ukraine aimed at "protecting Europe from Iran" in other words, aimed at Russia in the coming years.

ABM shield in Ukraine is pointless, unless it would be against IRBMs only.

Most ABM shields are like that.  Besides tests of old two stage scud like missiles, they have not tested anything close to a Topol missile.  But the perception is still there and may give ideas to others that it is alright to attack Russian's or push even more against russia cause they have a "defense" against them.  Even if it isn't 100% guarantee of an intercept.

SM-3 Block 2B (?) are supposed to be pretty capable against ICBMs, but that's not my point.

With the shield in Poland, range from there and from Alaska are converging at ICBMs path from Russia to America similarily. With ABM sites further south, southern sites would be in a disadvantageous position.

So, Ukraine for ABM site is not a very convenient location.

Hovewer, placement of OTH radar would be VERY advantageous.

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Anyway, moving along.


"Ukraine: Crimea calmed protests , parliamentary session did not take place

It is reported that the situation near the Crimean Supreme Council (Parliament ) building in Simferopol calmed down and scheduled an extraordinary meeting on the status of the peninsula in Ukraine took place because the absence of the necessary quorum of MPs .

Instead of the planned sessions were held in the Crimean Supreme Council for discussion on the political situation in Ukraine.

The regional parliament speaker Volodymyr Konstantinovas before the scheduled meeting, assured the separation from the Ukrainian scenario will not be discussed , and appeared in the press speculation on the subject is just a provocation .

"Crimean parliament does not split from the Ukrainian question , - said V. Konstantinov , calling for people to respect peace. - This is a provocation aimed at discrediting the same body ."

Following the publication of the information that an extraordinary meeting does not happen, the Crimean Tatar leader Riphath Čiubarovas posted by the Crimean victory " and urged his supporters to leave the protest site. Crimean Russian community representative stated that the peninsula " Mosques , Churches and Synagogues should be reserved " collaborative effort . "

ELTA previously reported that on Wednesday in front of the parliament building in Simferopol Crimea immediately protested the two groups - pro-Russian minded people and the new Ukrainian government supporting the Crimean Tatars and the nationalists . Both groups masquerading as stones and bottles , a small group of radicals tried to break into the parliament building. At the scene found a corpse , it is believed that the victim died from acute myocardial infarction.

Near the parliament building cause of the explosion has not been determined."

http://www.delfi.lt/news/daily/world/v-putino-isakas-ginkluotosioms-pajegoms-buti-pasiruosus-bombarduoti.d?id=64134462#ixzz2uS5gNPCO


So, parliament of Simferopol appearantly wants Crimea to remain a part of Ukraine.

Ukraine needs Russia, as without the Russian trade the economic situation will make Ukraine collapse even the EU wont be able to stop or support it. Russia offered Ukraine $15bn and cheaper gas prices, the EU's offer was $9bn with strict EU rules/guidelines, Ukraine need to think whats a better offer, also Ukraine has collossal amounts of work needed to get to EU standard and this will cost collossal amounts of money. I personally believe Ukraine would be better off staying closer to Russia, the Economist(magazine) predicts Russia's economy to over take UK and Germany's by 2020 so with another reason to carefully consider. The EU isnt in perfect shape but Ukrainians like to think it is. I think Ukrainians will realise this IF they ever do get into the EU. But i suppose in time Ukrainians will realise that the grass isnt always greener on the other side.

d_taddei2 wrote:Ukraine needs Russia, as without the Russian trade the economic situation will make Ukraine collapse even the EU wont be able to stop or support it.

Well, I think that it's up to Ukrainian people to decide that.

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Anyway... Now, that this Ukrainian issue is more or less settled, does anyone know, when we could expect Euroredsquare?   

macedonian wrote:Any of you guys wanna post any updates, that'd be fine by me.
It's kinda weird that some of you post more on American forums rather than here (well, in my opinion at least).
I find it weird also - to have to check mp.net for the latest updated info on the RUSSIAN minority, rather than a RUSSIAN forum.
But maybe that's just me. Carry on...

I have not posted on MP.net since my original account got banned.

If I did I would get stuck in a flame war within seconds. There is just so much stupidity on there.

magnumcromagnon wrote:Looks like Crimean Tartars are protesting, the main Tartar political party is made up of Islamists with ties to Al Qaeda. If "Euro-Maidan" takes over the entirety of Ukraine, one can see a violent civil war brewing not just between the Russophobes and the Russophiles, but with Tartar Islamists probably fighting both sides as well.

What now?

etaepsilonk wrote:

Regular wrote:
@etaepsilonk I hope You've ment to say Russia will loose in non military way. Military wise it would be walk in the park. Small east 888 operation would be perfect if Russia could find good pretext.

Actually, I've precicely meant, that Russia would loose militarily.
Todays' wars are fought not only by armies, but also by coalitions. And 888 war is actually a good example of that. Remember, that initially, Tskhinvali was defended not by Russian army, but by S. Ossetian army, with small peacekeeper contingent in support.
Without those, "Didi Gupta" bridge would have fallen in the hands of Georgians and re-capturing that narrow pass would have been EXTREMELY difficult.


"Who is Ukrainian F.Castro? Is it the guy from Pravy Sektor?"

No, I meant an Ukrainian analogy of Cuban revolution of 1959.

Also, I assume that you view F. Castro negatively. If so, may I ask why? In my opinion, he's one of the greatest people of our time   

Uh, no. There are plenty of other avenues for Russia to batter GEorgia into retreat.

Militarily Ukraine would be a cakewalk.
Just the international condemnation would be a problem.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/27/world/europe/russia.html?hp&_r=0&gwh=026E9A11C0536DE682EA5175EFF27D41&gwt=pay

So it begins. *laughs like an evil maniac*.

TR1 wrote:

Uh, no. There are plenty of other avenues for Russia to batter GEorgia into retreat.

Militarily Ukraine would be a cakewalk.
Just the international condemnation would be a problem.

The goal of 888 war was not to batter Georgia, but primarily, to recapture Tskhinvali and surrounding regions.
Remember, this town is center of what little business S. Ossetia has. Second biggest town is Java with 1500 people. So, loss of Tskhinvali would have easily meant complete S. Ossetian dependence on it's bigger brother in the north.

With regards o Ukraine, yes, beating Ukraine's military would be a cakewalk, just like it was a cakewalk for ISAF to beat Taliban in 2001    See where I'm heading?

Ukraine=/= Taliban. No history of tribal resistance at all like the Afghans.

Yes yes, the Ukranian nationalists of the 40s, whatever. You think Ukranians of today are gonna do that? Please.
And nobody is talking about full Russian occupation of the nation either. I'm not even advocating any intervention, but if there was, it would be limited to Russian objects (Sevastopol, large Russian population centers).

TR1 wrote:Ukraine=/= Taliban. No history of tribal resistance at all like the Afghans.

Khmelnitsky begs to differ    



"And nobody is talking about full Russian occupation of the nation either."

That's precicely there the problem lies. Failure to occupy ALL of Ukraine, not only parts of it creates "safe zones", just like Pakistan is a "safe zone" for Taliban. I'm ,of course, not counting areas easy to defend, like Crimea, Odessa. But that's definitely the case for "continental" Ukraine.
And don't forget, that the west WILL support partisan efforts against Russian army.




"I'm not even advocating any intervention, but if there was, it would be limited to Russian objects (Sevastopol, large Russian population centers)."

How can you be sure that Russian population would even support this Russian army? So far they showed very small resistance to Maidanists-banderas.