The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

Hmmm... looks like things are starting to heat up in Donetsk.
Anti-Maidan protesters storm regional govt building in Donetsk

Any news on Luhansk?

Austin wrote:The market capitalisation of Moscow's main MICEX stock index has fallen $58.4bn (£35.2bn) since Friday - more than the $51bn (£30.5bn) Russia spent on preparations for the Winter Olympics in Sochi, Reuters news agency reports.

Pretty effin' serious!
Again - I HOPE they've anticipated all this before moving ahead...

I hope too.

I just say return to the barracks .....just keep the self defence force in Crimea and keep a close watch for any agression on Russian citizen.

Things will cool down ......the Bandits are just bunch of nuts who will fall on their own when they accept IMF loan.

Ckeck out the very end of this video  



Zubr?

flamming_python wrote:

Regular wrote:@macedonian
Did I say otherwise?
I partly agree. But we are not georgians. Morale is pretty damn high and we don't fuck around in army. We have only one task. Stay functional for atleast a month. How well it would work in real life, well I bet more than what georgians did. Don't forget about poles too

Regular, no offense, but the Lithuanian army won't stand 12 hours against a Russian armoured offensive. It would be rapidly split and divided, what will happen is that units will be completely cut-off, comms, etc... would be compromised or disabled by EW, etc...
And then what Lithuanian soldiers will do next is their business; try and escape encirclement, blend into civilian population and wage a partisan war, surrender, etc...

Morale is simply a function of how fucked you are. Yes, training and discipline helps, but mainly while there is some sort of front to keep, while you are sure that your country can keep on fighting and that others are fighting with you, etc...
If you are completely overrun; confusion will reign and that's when morale will drop.

About the Georgians; they were doing rather well at least for the first 12 hours until Russia sent in its forces; then they started getting nervous; but they only completely broke when command itself gave the order for them to just leg it back to Tbilisi; armoured vehicles were simply left abandoned, etc... the collapse of the front and confusion is what actually drove the soldiers to panic; not the battles with Russian forces.

No offense taken. You are damn right and that is reality we understand. We are not pursuing air force for same reasons. I see advantages Russian army has as devastating factor. I only meant to say that it would cost Russia lives and time and money to gain questionable gains, it wouldn't be walk in the park. I know that mechanised battalion would be only mechanised in name. It could take less than 12 hours to decapitate army command. But I have confidence in our lower chain of command. If main target is Lithuania(highly unlikely due to not transit nature of the country and other factors ) then we would be damned as COIN and pressure would be devastating, but according to our command our expectation is at least a month is possible. For today's warfare pace it's pretty long. But probably it only applies if Russia would move westwards and it would stretch out it's troops and logistic chain. I'm not sure if NATO would actually fight in the buffer zone   Morale is important when individual actions have to be taken. We still use some soviet methods of training troops, especially when it comes to reconnaissance.
Still Russia can secure channel to Kaliningrad and there is really no need to completely engage in all out insurgency. And I myself would probably die standing in a reservist que:D I imagine it would nearly impossible to call and organise reserves.

Regular wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

Regular wrote:@macedonian
Did I say otherwise?
I partly agree. But we are not georgians. Morale is pretty damn high and we don't fuck around in army. We have only one task. Stay functional for atleast a month. How well it would work in real life, well I bet more than what georgians did. Don't forget about poles too

Regular, no offense, but the Lithuanian army won't stand 12 hours against a Russian armoured offensive. It would be rapidly split and divided, what will happen is that units will be completely cut-off, comms, etc... would be compromised or disabled by EW, etc...
And then what Lithuanian soldiers will do next is their business; try and escape encirclement, blend into civilian population and wage a partisan war, surrender, etc...

Morale is simply a function of how fucked you are. Yes, training and discipline helps, but mainly while there is some sort of front to keep, while you are sure that your country can keep on fighting and that others are fighting with you, etc...
If you are completely overrun; confusion will reign and that's when morale will drop.

About the Georgians; they were doing rather well at least for the first 12 hours until Russia sent in its forces; then they started getting nervous; but they only completely broke when command itself gave the order for them to just leg it back to Tbilisi; armoured vehicles were simply left abandoned, etc... the collapse of the front and confusion is what actually drove the soldiers to panic; not the battles with Russian forces.

No offense taken. You are damn right and that is reality we understand. We are not pursuing air force for same reasons. I see advantages Russian army has as devastating factor. I only meant to say that it would cost Russia lives and time and money to gain questionable gains, it wouldn't be walk in the park. I know that mechanised battalion would be only mechanised in name. It could take less than 12 hours to decapitate army command. But I have confidence in our lower chain of command. If main target is Lithuania(highly unlikely due to not transit nature of the country and other factors ) then we would be damned as COIN and pressure would be devastating, but according to our command our expectation is at least a month is possible. For today's warfare pace it's pretty long. But probably it only applies if Russia would move westwards and it would stretch out it's troops and logistic chain. I'm not sure if NATO would actually fight in the buffer zone   Morale is important when individual actions have to be taken. We still use some soviet methods of training troops, especially when it comes to reconnaissance.
Still Russia can secure channel to Kaliningrad and there is really no need to completely engage in all out insurgency. And I myself would probably die standing in a reservist que:D I imagine it would nearly impossible  to call and organise reserves.

There won't be any invasion of Lithuania in the foreseeable future. Mainly because it's not needed, Lithuania already sits in Russia's pocket.

macedonian wrote:

Austin wrote:The market capitalisation of Moscow's main MICEX stock index has fallen $58.4bn (£35.2bn) since Friday - more than the $51bn (£30.5bn) Russia spent on preparations for the Winter Olympics in Sochi, Reuters news agency reports.

Pretty effin' serious!
Again - I HOPE they've anticipated all this before moving ahead...

Any sensible govt wouldn't be too concerned about short term market movements.
The key thing is fundamentals.

A sorted out Ukraine would be very good for Russia... and the Ukraine.
Altho the looneys of Lvov and their foreign backers would obviously still lie and bicker.

Much of the Ukraine is orientated towards Russia in its industry and commerce. Esp aerospace etc. The problem is that the sensible part of the Ukraine is being hamstrung by corrupt foreign shitstirring influences. It would be great for both Russia and the Ukraine to be producing topquality new products at Motor Sich, Antonov and the like. The Ukraine's industry simply cannot benefit to the same level by shunning Russia and joining the Euroloons. THATS why they really threw the toys out of the pram and resorted to such appalling tactics so much. They couldn't hope to match Russia's offer.

Its all about synergy. In commerce, 1+1 is often much more than 2.

In other words, any Russian action would pay for itself many times over. In financial and many other ways.

There are so many informations and disinformations about Ukraine that I don't know, what is really happening there. For now Crimea seems quiet. What about other regions?

Firebird wrote:

macedonian wrote:

Austin wrote:The market capitalisation of Moscow's main MICEX stock index has fallen $58.4bn (£35.2bn) since Friday - more than the $51bn (£30.5bn) Russia spent on preparations for the Winter Olympics in Sochi, Reuters news agency reports.

Pretty effin' serious!
Again - I HOPE they've anticipated all this before moving ahead...

Any sensible govt wouldn't be too concerned about short term market movements.
The key thing is fundamentals.

A sorted out Ukraine would be very good for Russia... and the Ukraine.
Altho the looneys of Lvov and their foreign backers would obviously still lie and bicker.

Much of the Ukraine is orientated towards Russia in its industry and commerce. Esp aerospace etc. The problem is that the sensible part of the Ukraine is being hamstrung by corrupt foreign shitstirring influences.  It would be great for both Russia and the Ukraine to be producing topquality new products at Motor Sich, Antonov and the like. The Ukraine's industry simply cannot benefit to the same level by shunning Russia and joining the Euroloons. THATS why they really threw the toys out of the pram and resorted to such appalling tactics so much. They couldn't hope to match Russia's offer.

Its all about synergy. In commerce, 1+1 is often much more than 2.

In other words, any Russian action would pay for itself many times over. In financial and many other ways.

In my opinion, partition of Ukraine will be the best solution for peace in this region. Up to now western part with financial help made two revolutions against elected president and government, which were elected with eastern votes. If they stay together, there will be constant unrests and revolutions and sooner or later civil war, even if it will not be this time. Any government voted from the east will be thrown by the western part. I hope partition of Ukraine will be reached in peaceful way.

medo wrote:

Firebird wrote:

macedonian wrote:

Austin wrote:The market capitalisation of Moscow's main MICEX stock index has fallen $58.4bn (£35.2bn) since Friday - more than the $51bn (£30.5bn) Russia spent on preparations for the Winter Olympics in Sochi, Reuters news agency reports.

Pretty effin' serious!
Again - I HOPE they've anticipated all this before moving ahead...

Any sensible govt wouldn't be too concerned about short term market movements.
The key thing is fundamentals.

A sorted out Ukraine would be very good for Russia... and the Ukraine.
Altho the looneys of Lvov and their foreign backers would obviously still lie and bicker.

Much of the Ukraine is orientated towards Russia in its industry and commerce. Esp aerospace etc. The problem is that the sensible part of the Ukraine is being hamstrung by corrupt foreign shitstirring influences.  It would be great for both Russia and the Ukraine to be producing topquality new products at Motor Sich, Antonov and the like. The Ukraine's industry simply cannot benefit to the same level by shunning Russia and joining the Euroloons. THATS why they really threw the toys out of the pram and resorted to such appalling tactics so much. They couldn't hope to match Russia's offer.

Its all about synergy. In commerce, 1+1 is often much more than 2.

In other words, any Russian action would pay for itself many times over. In financial and many other ways.

In my opinion, partition of Ukraine will be the best solution for peace in this region. Up to now western part with financial help made two revolutions against elected president and government, which were elected with eastern votes. If they stay together, there will be constant unrests and revolutions and sooner or later civil war, even if it will not be this time. Any government voted from the east will be thrown by the western part. I hope partition of Ukraine will be reached in peaceful way.

i think the same too, although partition will not be good for Ukrainians because they will loose way to sea and other important regions. I hope to be peaceful, but i think because of the reason i mentioned it will be through war

medo wrote:

Firebird wrote:

macedonian wrote:

Austin wrote:The market capitalisation of Moscow's main MICEX stock index has fallen $58.4bn (£35.2bn) since Friday - more than the $51bn (£30.5bn) Russia spent on preparations for the Winter Olympics in Sochi, Reuters news agency reports.

Pretty effin' serious!
Again - I HOPE they've anticipated all this before moving ahead...

Any sensible govt wouldn't be too concerned about short term market movements.
The key thing is fundamentals.

A sorted out Ukraine would be very good for Russia... and the Ukraine.
Altho the looneys of Lvov and their foreign backers would obviously still lie and bicker.

Much of the Ukraine is orientated towards Russia in its industry and commerce. Esp aerospace etc. The problem is that the sensible part of the Ukraine is being hamstrung by corrupt foreign shitstirring influences.  It would be great for both Russia and the Ukraine to be producing topquality new products at Motor Sich, Antonov and the like. The Ukraine's industry simply cannot benefit to the same level by shunning Russia and joining the Euroloons. THATS why they really threw the toys out of the pram and resorted to such appalling tactics so much. They couldn't hope to match Russia's offer.

Its all about synergy. In commerce, 1+1 is often much more than 2.

In other words, any Russian action would pay for itself many times over. In financial and many other ways.

In my opinion, partition of Ukraine will be the best solution for peace in this region. Up to now western part with financial help made two revolutions against elected president and government, which were elected with eastern votes. If they stay together, there will be constant unrests and revolutions and sooner or later civil war, even if it will not be this time. Any government voted from the east will be thrown by the western part. I hope partition of Ukraine will be reached in peaceful way.

Well Putin talked about a Federal Ukraine. He also mentioned how Denmark and Greenland are one "kingdom" but Greenland is an "autonomous country". And Greenland is not part of the EU.

The East and South of Ukr are clearly connected with Russia. The West has too many idiots, and lets face it, colloboration on sensitive stuff would be problematic.

Ultimately Russia has to get Kiev under its wing. This is too important to give over to Nazis and terrorists, given Russia's history. Unfortunately, despite Kiev being part of Russia not that long ago, its now infested with too much of the Lvov disease.

Finally there is the Carpathians. There is NO WAY Russia should allow that to become militarised by NATO. It is a vital defence of the East Slavic World.

But the next problem is that there are pockets of minorities all over. Like Russian leaners in the Far West.

A big question would be how a Federal Ukraine was set up.

And ironically, Russia has (or shall I now say "HAD") no problem with closer Euro ties. However, as Putin said, it must treat Russia as an equal, not as a Brussels gimp.

The sad part was, there were numerous plausible solutions, but the EU and US thought they could take the piss and abuse Russians and Russia-leaning Ukrainians. Still... its good to know who your friends/partners are... and AREN'T!

flamming_python wrote:

About the Georgians; they were doing rather well at least for the first 12 hours until Russia sent in its forces; then they started getting nervous; but they only completely broke when command itself gave the order for them to just leg it back to Tbilisi; armoured vehicles were simply left abandoned, etc... the collapse of the front and confusion is what actually drove the soldiers to panic; not the battles with Russian forces.

Nah, the Georgians absolutely failed in every instance in the war.

Any time there was South Ossetian militia resistance, the Georgians failed to secure or even take an objective.

Though actual battles were more like ambushes and accidental encounters, nothing major.

I would say partition should be on Dnieper river. True, some people will move on the other side of river, but river itself is a good border also if western part become member of NATO, what I think it will, because any move from NATO have to cross the river. 20 years ago war was prevented with Crimea canceling referendum for independence, but the problem is in Ukraine itself, that is why there are constant revolutions and unrests as well as corruption and robbery from oligarhs.

medo wrote:I would say partition should be on Dnieper river. True, some people will move on the other side of river, but river itself is a good border also if western part become member of NATO, what I think it will, because any move from NATO have to cross the river. 20 years ago war was prevented with Crimea canceling referendum for independence, but the problem is in Ukraine itself, that is why there are constant revolutions and unrests as well as corruption and robbery from oligarhs.

That would mean the loss of much of Kiev (a monumental disaster) and also, places like Odessa (disaster).

I think it has to be Non NATO territory in the West. Otherwise NATO will have scored a victory, and will cause even more outrage.

ALso many Russians/Russian leaners would be 3rd class citizens in a Neo-Nazi state over in the West.

With Federalisation, people can do their own thing AND be subject to basic moral norms against minorities who act properly.

But its gone beyond that now. The West acted appallingly in this matter in sponsoring Nazis seize much power. The Ukraine's worst are now committing human rights crimes against  Russians and those allied/with affinity to her.

Firebird wrote:

medo wrote:I would say partition should be on Dnieper river. True, some people will move on the other side of river, but river itself is a good border also if western part become member of NATO, what I think it will, because any move from NATO have to cross the river. 20 years ago war was prevented with Crimea canceling referendum for independence, but the problem is in Ukraine itself, that is why there are constant revolutions and unrests as well as corruption and robbery from oligarhs.

That would mean the loss of much of Kiev (a monumental disaster) and also, places like Odessa (disaster).

I think it has to be Non NATO territory in the West. Otherwise NATO will have scored a victory, and will cause even more outrage.

ALso many Russians/Russian leaners would be 3rd class citizens in a Neo-Nazi state over in the West.

With Federalisation, people can do their own thing AND be subject to basic moral norms against minorities who act properly.

But its gone beyond that now. The West acted appallingly in this matter in sponsoring Nazis seize much power. The Ukraine's worst are now committing human rights crimes against  Russians and those allied/with affinity to her.

As I say, some people will have to move on different sides of river to be safe, but this is a point of partition in political process, that both sides get equal. Eastern pro-Russia Ukrainians will lost western parts, but will have more stable eastern parts. Whole Ukraine will be a very dangerous trojan horse with constant unrests and revolutions. Better to leave that part and have stable economy and defense in your half. This will be victory for both sides.

medo wrote:There are so many informations and disinformations about Ukraine that I don't know, what is really happening there. For now Crimea seems quiet. What about other regions?

http://euronews.com/2014/03/03/ukraine-pro-russian-protesters-take-government-building-in-donetsk/

According to this guy (anti-Maidan blogger from Kiev who evacuated to Russia as his blog was on the list of one's published by the Maidanites), instead of 'Titushki' pro-Russians are now being called 'Russian-provocateurs', 3 traffic cops were murdered, more witch-hunts, mass anti-Russian hysteria, hmm what else is new?
http://flackelf.livejournal.com/

In Russia meanwhile we have TV propaganda, invasion of a neighbouring state, hysteria about threats to Russian-speakers in the Ukraine, break-up of an anti-war demo, disarming of Ukrainian military units despite the fact that they've remained neutral all throughout, etc...
But all in all nowhere near as bad as in the Ukraine right now.

TR1 wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

About the Georgians; they were doing rather well at least for the first 12 hours until Russia sent in its forces; then they started getting nervous; but they only completely broke when command itself gave the order for them to just leg it back to Tbilisi; armoured vehicles were simply left abandoned, etc... the collapse of the front and confusion is what actually drove the soldiers to panic; not the battles with Russian forces.

Nah, the Georgians absolutely failed in every instance in the war.

Any time there was South Ossetian militia resistance, the Georgians failed to secure or even take an objective.

Though actual battles were more like ambushes and accidental encounters, nothing major.

They did nearly get to the Roki tunnel, and had secured a good amount of Tskinvali or is that just my imagination?

flamming_python wrote:According to this guy (anti-Maidan blogger from Kiev who evacuated to Russia as his blog was on the list of one's published by the Maidanites), instead of 'Titushki' pro-Russians are now being called 'Russian-provocateurs', 3 traffic cops were murdered, more witch-hunts, mass anti-Russian hysteria, hmm what else is new?
http://flackelf.livejournal.com/

In Russia meanwhile we have TV propaganda, invasion of a neighbouring state, hysteria about threats to Russian-speakers in the Ukraine, break-up of an anti-war demo, disarming of Ukrainian military units despite the fact that they've remained neutral all throughout, etc...
But all in all nowhere near as bad as in the Ukraine right now.

TR1 wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

About the Georgians; they were doing rather well at least for the first 12 hours until Russia sent in its forces; then they started getting nervous; but they only completely broke when command itself gave the order for them to just leg it back to Tbilisi; armoured vehicles were simply left abandoned, etc... the collapse of the front and confusion is what actually drove the soldiers to panic; not the battles with Russian forces.

Nah, the Georgians absolutely failed in every instance in the war.

Any time there was South Ossetian militia resistance, the Georgians failed to secure or even take an objective.

Though actual battles were more like ambushes and accidental encounters, nothing major.

They did nearly get to the Roki tunnel, and had secured a good amount of Tskinvali or is that just my imagination?

for a hour

http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/721875

Italian FM: no boycotting of G8 summit in Sochi.

Confirmed by italian press.

Let's hope the hysteria will go down.

zino wrote:http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/721875

Italian FM: no boycotting of G8 summit in Sochi.

Confirmed by italian press.

Let's hope the hysteria will go down.

Who really cares about G8, a phony meeting that officially was meant to be suggestion for collective economical benefit while everyone does the quite opposite, everyone in reality tries to only enrich themselfs, especially EU and US.

A total waste of tax payers money for a meeting that has no purpose and has never achieved any benefitial revenues for the collective.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VodgK8ltQaI

Wait! Is that (2:27) a large hovercraft there in Fedosia? Spoil of war or is it Russian?

Little humour to lighten the mood

Feel sorry for the non-Russian speakers here, you guys are missing out   

If the Western response is going to be this weak, taking Crimea might not be a bad idea. I thought the response would be much more aggressive.

flamming_python wrote:According to this guy (anti-Maidan blogger from Kiev who evacuated to Russia as his blog was on the list of one's published by the Maidanites), instead of 'Titushki' pro-Russians are now being called 'Russian-provocateurs', 3 traffic cops were murdered, more witch-hunts, mass anti-Russian hysteria, hmm what else is new?
http://flackelf.livejournal.com/

In Russia meanwhile we have TV propaganda, invasion of a neighbouring state, hysteria about threats to Russian-speakers in the Ukraine, break-up of an anti-war demo, disarming of Ukrainian military units despite the fact that they've remained neutral all throughout, etc...
But all in all nowhere near as bad as in the Ukraine right now.

TR1 wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

About the Georgians; they were doing rather well at least for the first 12 hours until Russia sent in its forces; then they started getting nervous; but they only completely broke when command itself gave the order for them to just leg it back to Tbilisi; armoured vehicles were simply left abandoned, etc... the collapse of the front and confusion is what actually drove the soldiers to panic; not the battles with Russian forces.

Nah, the Georgians absolutely failed in every instance in the war.

Any time there was South Ossetian militia resistance, the Georgians failed to secure or even take an objective.

Though actual battles were more like ambushes and accidental encounters, nothing major.

They did nearly get to the Roki tunnel, and had secured a good amount of Tskinvali or is that just my imagination?

"Georgians getting near the Roki tunnel" was one of the more amusing and desperate items of propaganda that I have witnessed in "real time".

I know there were actually a few prole-feed outlets, at the time, that actually were trying to suggest that story!

There are many problems with that story. One of the problems is the issue of the timing; of course, by the time any mention of the Roki tunnel had been made in the media, the Russians had already transferred the forces they wanted to transfer trough the tunnel.

Another aspect of the story that's really cute is that it would have been easier for the Georgian, or anybody else for that matter, to land there forces on mars (with enough silk ties to feed them, of course) than to get near the Roki tunnel.