German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in a speech in parliament on Thursday that EU partnership with Ukraine is not targeted against Russia, and pointed out that "terrirotial integrity of Ukraine cannot be called into question."
1. If Russia refuses the anexation asked, then has also to forget any influence that has internationaly. Will be hated from enemies (although cogratulated from them ) but aslo hated and abadond from friends..
2. Merkel said... and who beleived her ?
ITs important to respect Germanys view as she is the best Russian partner in EU.
There is no need to Annex Crimea just decalare her independent like Abkazia or S Ossetia.
So Crimea could be targeted by a color revolution? It's not like Russia annexed Crimea on the battlefield...Khrushchev gave Crimea to Ukraine arbitrarily, the Crimeans never voted on being annexed by Ukraine, then Crimeans (who are ethnic Russians and consider themselves as so) left on their own free will because they want to flee violent racists who like banning of languages and having prison terms for having dual citizenship, plus NATO already set the precedent with the secession of Kosovo from Serbia, NATO cant have their cake and eat it.
Austin wrote:Russia is no China or US .......the economic sanctions will badly impact Russia ....be warned and most country will now flock to NATO.
1.) Russia is too big of an economy for serious sanctions to be deployed, Europe's economy would completely collapse while Russia will just turn to China and India economically.
2.) Serious sanctions means that Russia won't have to abide by any international arms treaty or arms embargo, that means Russia can heavily arm Iran with no range limitation of missiles, fund rebellions (like the Soviet Union did), build up massive stockpiles of nuclear warheads...there's a reason why The U.S. State Dept. initiated the Nuclear Arms treaties...It's because theirs a huge gape between Russian and American ICBM technology, INF treaty benefits the Pentagon more than Russia due to NATO members like France, UK still having theater range nukes, the smaller the Russian nuclear stockpile, the greater the confidence grows of the Pentagon landing a successful nuclear first strike without retaliation.
Trained? No. Supported through these countries financially and by other means - yes. wrote:
Wrong, this facists were trained by even US military members.
http://rossiyanavsegda.ru/read/1689/
Training in medical first aid,physical training, how to place mines and direct mines (MON mines) ie claymore likes, training with all kind of small fire arms,sniper rifles, AT weapons (RPG), ambushes and radio communication and coordination.
Those who are seen on this pictures are Americans and British NATO members training facists youth for Ukrainian putsch.
Here their weapons arsenal delivered by British "colleagues". If i am not wrong this is even a british Sniper rifle. One of them with MP-40
And to authentify that this are actual facists and not just some guys trained.
US's Kerry threatens Russia with tough response to Crimean referendum
US Secretary of State John Kerry warned Russia Thursday that Washington and Europe were preparing a tough response to a breakaway vote in Ukraine's Crimea, depending on how Moscow reacts.
Russia will respond in some way to Sunday's referendum itself, Kerry told lawmakers, warning: "If there is no sign of any capacity to be able to move forward and resolve this issue, there will be a very serious series of steps on Monday in Europe and here with respect to the options that are available to us."
So anyway highlights of the week. Keep in mind I can't vouch for the veracity of all of these sources. Buyer beware, as they say.
- More repressions in Donetsk and Lugansk, things seem to have quietened down there as a result. Last major rallies were on the 9th of March.
However, a more organised movement is rising steadily, the 'South-East Front', with demands on holding referendums and so on. Here's a photo of their rally in Zaporozhia yesterday.
In Kharkov Cossacks and local anti-maidan self-defense units have vowed to organise a referendum on economic independence from Kiev http://lifenews.ru/news/128878
This happened after the regional council in Kharkov rejected an official referendum on federalisation, etc... as suggested by some local citizens initiatives: http://comstol.info/2014/03/politika/8746
- Pravyj Sektor is forming its own battalions for the repression of the 'Russian uprising' in Eastern Ukraine: http://novoross.info/politiks/23845-pravyy-sektor-formiruet-karatelnye-batalony-dlya-unichtozheniya-russkih-grazhdan-na-yugo-vostoke-ukrainy.html
- Ex-Kharkov governor, Mikhail Dobkin - under house arrest. But overall it looks like he's found a common language with them. Some are worrying that the new authorities will allow him to run for president in the May election, in order to represent the South-East regions votes, lose of course, and that way pacify the restless Eastern Ukrainian regions.
- Provocations in the Crimea, reports of firearms use, and now a cafe being mined by Right Sector radicals: http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=1372110&cid=5
One of the latest Ukrainian propaganda initiatives in Sevastopol is 'they don't allow us to speak Ukrainian', despite the fact that no-one speaks Ukrainian in Sevastopol: http://www.sevastopol.su/news.php?id=58656
BTW Anonymous has done it again, hacking Ukrainian-American military correspondences. Very juicy info: http://sporaw.livejournal.com/258830.html
Meanwhile the head of the Ukrainian chiefs of staff, now former head I guess, had his own statement to make about how the Ukrainian military should preserve neutrality, refused any criminal orders to fire on their own people, and not fire on Russian brothers either; http://odessa-antimaydan.com/obrashhenie-nachalnika-generalnogo-shtaba-vsu-k-soldatam-i-oficeram-ukrainy/
- In the Kherson region (bordering Crimea), local authorities have refused participation in the celebrations of the 70th anniversary of the battle of Kherson, and denied WWII veterans the opportunity to participate. Leaflets threatening Jews and Russians were also apparently spied in Kherson city: http://en.itar-tass.com/world/723370
- A small but symbolic pro-Russian rally in Bulgaria, with the participation of some members of the Syrian diaspora in Bulgaria too it seems
- Putin had a half-hour telephone conversation with the head (or ex-head) of the Crimea Tatar Medzhilis organisation. The Crimean Tatar leader emphasized how important it was to defend the Ukraine's territorial integrity, that the Crimea should remain a part of the Ukraine, what sort of threats the Crimean Tatar population could face from the new government to which Putin guaranteed that no such things will happen. Putin also touched on the subject of how Ukraine itself gained independence from the USSR in a large part through the organisation of a referendum; and the the current situation in the Crimea could follow the same principle: http://www.regnum.ru/news/polit/1777335.html
- Aeroflot and a couple other Russian airlines have diverted their flights so that they don't cross into Ukrainian airspace. One of Russia's biggest train-ticket sales sites meanwhile has already started listing the Crimea as Russian territory: https://twitter.com/anti_maydan/status/443889638160089088/photo/1/large
- Lukashenko requested more Russian air force fighters to be rebased onto Belarussian territory in order to counter the build-up in NATO. 9 planes and transport planes with equipment have already been redeployed, exercises are taking place. Likewise, large-scale VDV exercises are starting too, as well as exercises of the Southern Military District.
- An 'avtomaidan' convoy attempted to enter Crimean territory. Berkut showed them who's boss Payback for Maidan I guess, the people who tried to provoke them were front-line fighters back there.
- According to the Sevastopol city council, out of 34 Ukrainian military units there, 30 have either defected to the side of the Crimean authorities or have declared their neutrality until the referendum on 16th March. Unofficially, many Ukrainian servicemen have said that they are 'surrendering' on the 17th of March, and are enquiring as to whether they will be employable in the Russian military. Other reports say that conscripts from the Crimea serving in Ukrainian units are looking for ways to defect/return home.
Remember that video with the Ukrainian marine commander I posted? Well, here are some of his men, explaining their position. It differs quite a bit:
And here is an interview with a Ukrainian sailor from one of the blockaded units: http://www.kp.ru/daily/26205/3090824/ According to him, the overwhelming majority of the base is for the defection of their unit to the Crimean self-defense forces.
- And here's a view from the other side, an interview with a member of the Maidan self-defense force that have arrived from Kiev to Odessa, holds a reasonable position all in all
Capital flight from Russia may reach $50 billion per quarter under sanctions
If the sanctions affect only accounts of certain individuals, enterprises, operations or products, this will be “a mild scenario”, says Alexei Kudrin
ST. PETERSBURG, March 13. /ITAR-TASS/. Capital flight from Russia in 2014 may reach $50 billion per quarter if harsher sanctions are imposed on the country over the Ukrainian crisis, Alexei Kudrin, a member of the Presidium of the Russian president’s Economic Council, said.
If the sanctions affect only accounts of certain individuals, enterprises, operations or products, this will be “a mild scenario", Kudrin said at a joint meeting of the presidiums of the Unions of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs of St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region on Thursday, March 13.
He recalled that Western sanctions against Russia after the conflict with Georgia in 1998 had lasted about three to six months, and then the situation stabilized. “This may last longer now until the sides find some political solution. So we have to understand that there may be a second wave of sanctions,” Kudrin said.
“A key difference between the first and the second waves is the restrictions on currency operations carried out by our institutions in the international markets. This does not mean that operations will stop altogether and banks will have to work through correspondent accounts not at American or European banks but maybe in some other countries. We must understand that such measures were used in a number of instances. In this case, capital flight after the second wave [of sanctions] may reach 50 billion in the first and second quarters,” Kudrin said.
According to Kudrin, the government may help Russian companies, which previously borrowed from foreign banks, obtain loans in Russian banks. “It can use the reserves it has for this purpose. I am not talking about the Reserve Fund or the National Welfare Fund. There are different forms of working with lending institutions, and guarantees are one of them. This range of proposals is being worked out now and may be ready within one to three weeks,” he said.
Yes, it's Estonia, but it wasn't mentioned. I wish we had such camps, the most I did in Young shooters was civil defence training, some shooting with Baikal air rifle, AKM assembly/dissemble. It's shame they train such people, lol they are not even their neighbours.
Russia will hardly gain anything. Crimea is a region with deficit, Ukraine has to give them more money than it gets in return. Most of Crimean gas, water and electricity comes from Ukraine.
Russia will have to invest billions upon billions into this shit - and even then given their level of corruption and low economic freedom, the result is not certain. Incorporating 2mln people is something Germany or Japan can afford but not Russia.
Ukraine is heavily dependent on nuclear energy – it has 15 reactors generating about half of its electricity. Ukraine receives most of its nuclear services and nuclear fuel from Russia. In 2004 Ukraine commissioned two large new reactors. The government plans to maintain nuclear share in electricity production to 2030, which will involve substantial new build. A large share of primary energy supply in Ukraine comes from the country's uranium and substantial coal resources. The remainder is oil and gas, mostly imported from Russia. In 1991, due to breakdown of the Soviet Union, the country's economy collapsed and its electricity consumption declined dramatically from 296 billion kWh in 1990 to 170 in 2000, all the decrease being from coal and gas plants. Today Ukraine is developing shale gas deposits and hoping to export this to western Europe by 2020 through the established pipeline infrastructure crossing its territory from the east. Total electricity production in 2009 amounted to 173 billion kWh, with 4 billion kWh net exports, and total capacity is over 52 GWe. In 2009, 41% of power came from coal and gas (approx 20% gas), 48% from nuclear (82.9 TWh) and 7% from hydro, according to the Ministry of Fuel and Energy. In 2009, 77.9 billion kWh net came from nuclear, according to IAEA. Nuclear plant comprises 26.6% of capacity, hydro 9.3%. A major increase in electricity demand to 307 billion kWh per year by 2020 and 420 billion kWh by 2030 is envisaged, and government policy was to continue supplying half of this from nuclear power. This would have required 29.5 GWe of nuclear capacity in 2030, up from 13.9 GWe (13.2 GWe net) now. In mid 2011 the Ukraine energy strategy to 2030 was updated, and in the electricity sector nuclear power's role was emphasized, with improved safety and increased domestic fuel fabrication. In mid-2012 the policy was gain updated, and 5000 to 7000 MWe of new nuclear capacity was proposed by 2030, costing some $25 billion Nuclear industry development Nuclear energy development started in 1970 with construction of the Chernobyl power plant, the first unit being commissioned in 1977. Though the Ukrainian nuclear industry was closely involved with Russia for many years, it remained relatively stable during the changes that occurred when the country became independent of the former Soviet Union. In fact, during that period and since, there have been continuing improvements in the operational safety and output levels of Ukraine's nuclear reactors. Ukraine's 15 nuclear power units at four nuclear power plants are operated by Energoatom, the country's nuclear power utility. Following the addition of two new VVER-1000 reactors in 2005, capacity increased to 13,168 which was 26.3% of the country’s total installed capacity. Energoatom expects nuclear to retain its contribution of 50-52% of Ukraine's electricity in 2020. All are Russian VVER types, two being 440 MWe V-312 models and the rest the larger 1000 MWe units – two early models and the rest V-320s. Power reactors have operated in Ukraine since 1977, and over 300 reactor years of operating experience have been accumulated. Load factors have increased steadily and reached 81.4% in 2004. A decrease of the country's load factor after 2005 is related to restrictions imposed by the national electricity grid. Early in 2010 it was at 73%. "Operational disturbances" at nuclear plants dropped from 71 in 1999 to 21 in 2009.
At the end of 1995 Zaporozhe unit 6 was connected to the grid making Zaporozhe the largest nuclear power station in Europe, with a net capacity of 5718 MWe. (The second largest station operating is Gravelines, near Dunkerque in France, with a net capacity of 5460 MWe.) In August and October 2004 Khmelnitsky 2 and Rovno 4 respectively were connected to the grid, bringing their long and interrupted construction to an end and adding 1900 MWe to replace that lost by closure of Chernobyl 1&3 in 1996 and 2000 respectively. They were completed by Energoatom using a consortium of Framatome ANP and Atomstroyexport. See fuller account of K2-R4 in Appendix below. In 1990 construction of three reactors (units 2-4) at Khmelnitski had been halted, though the site infrastructure for all four units was largely complete. Unit 3 was (and is) 75% complete, unit 4: 28% complete. These have been maintained to some extent since. An intergovernmental agreement with Russia on completing the two units was signed in mid-2010 and a contract with Atomstroyexport was signed in February 2011. Ukraine was hoping to sign a loan agreement for them late in 2012 and resume construction soon after.
As Sa'iqa wrote:Russia will hardly gain anything. Crimea is a region with deficit, Ukraine has to give them more money than it gets in return. Most of Crimean gas, water and electricity comes from Ukraine.
Russia will have to invest billions upon billions into this shit - and even then given their level of corruption and low economic freedom, the result is not certain. Incorporating 2mln people is something Germany or Japan can afford but not Russia.
Yes, it's Estonia, but it wasn't mentioned. I wish we had such camps, the most I did in Young shooters was civil defence training, some shooting with Baikal air rifle, AKM assembly/dissemble. It's shame they train such people, lol they are not even their neighbours.
Apparently, there were 2 dead from the Russian side, which is what got the crowd into a rage. The Maidan 'activists' here were only a part of who arrived, but they are the ones were armed with shields, pepper sprays, metal poles, etc... so they are the ones who got surrounded. One of them got knifed it seems and died too.
Anonymous Ukraine is battling the forces in Ukraine that are funded and directed from the West and attempting to overthrow the democratically elected government of the sovereign country of Ukraine.
Anonymous Ukraine is operating in what can only now be described as a war zone and the security measures they are forced to take are extreme. A member of Anonymous Ukraine who wishes to remain anonymous spoke to the Voice of Russia about the operations and the recent release of e-mails between Vitaly Klischko and the Lithuanian Presidential advisor. The e-mails show that Klitschko was intentionally planning to destabilize the country, is being instructed and funded from abroad and has his accounts in Germany. Greetings citizens of the world. We are Anonymous Ukraine. The Anonymous Hacktivist Collective worldwide is partially divided on the issue of Ukraine. This has to do with the western mass media propaganda and the conflicting reports that are coming out of the country. This is sad as some Anons are unknowingly supporting the dark forces at work in Ukraine. Members of Anonymous Ukraine are aware of the internal meddling by the United States, NATO and the European Union into the internal sovereign affairs of Ukraine. Anonymous Ukraine supports peace and the right of the people to self determination. The Bandera Nazis and fascist thugs that are beating and killing police and members of the security services of Ukraine do not represent the will or the wishes of the people of Ukraine. The people of Ukraine do not want European Union integration. The people of Ukraine do not want NATO on their territory. The people of Ukraine voted for President Yanukovich to lead them in fair and just democratic elections. The people of Ukraine plea to the President and to Russia for help in stopping the siege of Ukraine by Nazi thugs and murderous gangs. The people of Ukraine do not want to see their beloved capital Kiev occupied by Nazi killers and burned to the ground. The people of Ukraine want their independence to be recognized and be allowed to determine their own fate without pressure from US, NATO, European Union. The people of Ukraine want peace and want the Bandera Nazis to be stopped once and for all. Anonymous Ukraine does not like nor support what is happening in Ukraine now. The so-called opposition is trying to tear Ukraine apart. Anonymous Ukraine has released the e-mails of one of the leaders of the so called opposition and will continue to expose the moves by the west to subvert the sovereign country of Ukraine. The e mails released by Anonymous prove that Vitaly Klichko is a puppet of the West and is being financed through intermediaries in Lithuania. The e mails also prove that Klitchko has bank accounts in Germany and is receiving funding for his coup d’état from the West. We will continue fighting these puppets. The western puppet opposition leaders will hurl Ukraine into chaos. We appeal to the president of our country. The people of Ukraine urge you. President Yanukovich, to restore order and bring calm and stability and disperse the gangs of robbers and Nazis. Anonymous Ukraine will strike at all of the web resources of western hirelings and fascists. Anonymous Ukraine calls for Ukraine to be unified and independent. The government of Ukraine promoted the country's integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions despite the reluctance of Ukrainian people. Ukrainian citizens realize that signing of the Association Agreement with the European Union will lead to the collapse of Ukrainian economy in the near future. We express our support to the people of our country. We want Ukrainian government and EU leadership to understand that people of Ukraine do not want their country to become a raw material donor to Europe. Ukraine must be free. We do not want to be dependent on other countries or organizations. Ukrainian people do not need a speculative Association Agreement with the European Union. Ukraine does not need to be a part of Russia-led Eurasian customs union. We do not need to be servants of NATO. Ukraine does not need European Union. Ukraine does not need NATO. Ukraine should not be anybody's servant. We stand for independent Ukraine. We declare the continuation of Operation Independence. We will strike at the web resources of countries and organizations that pose a threat to freedom and independence of Ukraine! Operation Independence continues… Expect us We are Anonymous Ukraine. We are Anonymous. We are Legion. We Do Not Forgive. We Do Not Forget. Expect Us.
Last edited by magnumcromagnon on Fri Mar 14, 2014 7:38 am; edited 1 time in total
I'm not sure what to makes of this, some resemblance of false provocations? Only time will tell:
http://sporaw.livejournal.com/258830.html
Correspondence of US Army Attache Assistant in Kiev
We have hacked e-mail correspondence of US Army Attache Assistant in Kiev Jason Gresh and a high ranking official from Ukrainian General Staff Igor Protsyk.
It appears that they are planning to conduct a series of attacks on Ukrainian military bases in order to destabilize the situation in Ukraine.
Particularly, Jason Gresh writes to Igor Protsyk that it’s time to implement a plan that implies “causing problems to the transport hubs in the south-east of Ukraine in order to frame-up the neighbor. It will create favorable conditions for Pentagon to act”, says Jason Gresh.
In his turn, Protsyk writes to some Vasil and tells him to arrange an attack on an airbase of 25 aviation brigade of Ukrainian air force stationed in Melitopol.
This Vasil is responsible for arranging the details of the attack, gathering of the gunmen and providing them with a map of sites that are chosen to be attacked.
We strongly recommend everyone to look through these documents. There you will find all the details. (Anon)
From: Василь Лабайчук <krivonis.te@gmail.com> To: kolyarny@gmail.com CC: igor.protsyk@gmail.com Subj: Потрібно терміново пошуміти Date: Tue, 11 Mar 2014 09:20:46 -0700
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Олег, потрібно терміново пошуміти від імені москалів на аеродромі у Мелітополі. Це треба зробити до 15 березня. Сам розумієш чому. Перш за все тобі треба зв'язатися з Пашком Тарасенко. Ти його повинен знати, він із місцевої Свободи і володіє темою. До тебе приїдуть 10-12 хлопців з Центру. Найкращі бійці Тризуба. Головним там Мишко, ти його теж повинен знати. Подробиці дізнаєшся у нього. Треба людей зустріти та забезпечити усім необхідним. Дійте обережно. Розмовляти тільки російською мовою. 25 бригада зараз виконує бойові завдання, тому не чините великої шкоди літакам. Там є багато металолому, з ним можна робити усе. Пошкоджені літаки вам вкажуть. Необхідно, щоб усе було як дійсна атака сусідського спецназу. Але без трупів. Дай мені ще раз твій рахунок. Гроші прийдуть вчасно, не хвилюйся. Дивись додаток. Це приклад дій. Рішення приймай особисто.
(карта действий с пометками в аттаче - в пост не выкладывал, т.к. большая -- sporaw)
From: Igor Protsyk <igor.protsyk@gmail.com> To: krivonis.te@gmail.com Subj: Активні дії у Мелітополі Date: Tue, 11 Mar 2014 05:50:35 -0700
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Василь, потрібно дуже швидко провести активні дії у Мелітополі. Там 25 авіатранспортна бригада. Треба замарати наших заклятих друзів та добрих сусідів. Гадаю, що ти зрозумів мене. Тільки дійте уважно та обережно. 25 бригада зараз на бойових завданнях, так що не чините літакам великої шкоди. Там є вже пошкоджені літаки, ось з ним можна робити усе. Їхни бортові номери вам дадуть. Пам'ятай, треба, щоб усе було як дійсна атака російського спецназу. Комбриг там розумна людина. Подробиць він знати не буде, але у крайньому разі до нього можна звернутися. Ми його попередимо.
-- COL Igor PROTSYK Chief, Bilateral Military Cooperation Division Main Directorate for Military Cooperation and PKO General Staff, Armed Forces of Ukraine tel +38044 481-5407 cell +38067 407 97 40 e-mail: i.v.protsyk@mil.gov.ua e-mail: protsyk@ukr.net
From: "Gresh, Jason P" <GreshJP@state.gov> To: igor.protsyk@gmail.com, i.v.protsyk@mil.gov.ua Subj: Peninsula Date: Sun, 9 Mar 2014 17:57:09 +0200
Delivered-To: igor.protsyk@gmail.com Received: by 10.220.4.2 with SMTP id 2csp62561vcp; Sun, 9 Mar 2014 08:57:15 -0700 (PDT) X-Received: by 10.224.51.74 with SMTP id c10mr35436450qag.33.1394380635325; Sun, 09 Mar 2014 08:57:15 -0700 (PDT) Return-Path: <GreshJP@state.gov> Received: from haig2.state.gov (haig-ee.state.gov. [169.253.194.10]) by mx.google.com with ESMTPS id f6si8135208qap.24.2014.03.09.08.57.14 for <igor.protsyk@gmail.com> (version=TLSv1.2 cipher=ECDHE-RSA-RC4-SHA bits=128/128); Sun, 09 Mar 2014 08:57:15 -0700 (PDT) Received-SPF: pass (google.com: best guess record for domain of GreshJP@state.gov designates 169.253.194.10 as permitted sender) client-ip=169.253.194.10; Authentication-Results: mx.google.com; spf=pass (google.com: best guess record for domain of GreshJP@state.gov designates 169.253.194.10 as permitted sender) smtp.mail=GreshJP@state.gov Received: from EEAPPSEREDG02.appservices.state.sbu ([10.47.98.102]) by haig2.state.gov with ESMTP id s29FgT0w013967-s29FgT0x013967; Sun, 9 Mar 2014 11:42:29 -0400 Received: from EEAPPSEREX06.appservices.state.sbu (10.47.98.206) by EEAPPSEREDG02.appservices.state.sbu (10.47.98.102) with Microsoft SMTP Server (TLS) id 14.3.158.1; Sun, 9 Mar 2014 11:57:13 -0400 Received: from KIEVMB01.eur.state.sbu (10.168.34.7) by EEAPPSEREX06.appservices.state.sbu (10.47.98.206) with Microsoft SMTP Server id 14.3.158.1; Sun, 9 Mar 2014 11:57:13 -0400 Content-Class: urn:content-classes:message MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.5 Subject: Peninsula Date: Sun, 9 Mar 2014 17:57:09 +0200 Message-ID: <71C9088C4C6F7A4582772808F54C25520349E214@KIEVMB01.eur.state.sbu> X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Peninsula Thread-Index: Ac87sDqNfxCUW94zShqj0tXF8YAqGQ== From: "Gresh, Jason P" <GreshJP@state.gov> To: <igor.protsyk@gmail.com>, <i.v.protsyk@mil.gov.ua> X-FEAS-SYSTEM-WL: 10.47.98.102
Ihor,
Events are moving rapidly in Crimea. Our friends in Washington expect more decisive actions from your network. I think it's time to implement the plan we discussed lately. Your job is to cause some problems to the transport hubs in the south-east in order to frame-up the neighbor. It will create favorable conditions for Pentagon and the Company to act. Do not waste time, my friend.
Respectfully, JP
Jason P. Gresh Lieutenant Colonel, U.S. Army Assistant Army Attaché U.S. Embassy, Kyiv Tankova 4, Kyiv, Ukraine 04112 (380-44) 521 - 5444 | Fax (380-44) 521 - 5636
The National Security Advisor Shivshankar Menon’s remark to the effect that Russia has “legitimate interests” in the Ukraine developments, as much as other interests are involved, is a statement of fact at its most obvious level.
Russia’s interests in a stable, friendly Ukraine are no less than what India would have with regard to, say, Nepal or Bhutan. Delhi simply cannot afford to have an unfriendly government in Kathmandu or Thimpu, and it is hard to overlook the gravity of Russian concerns that ultra-nationalists staged a violent coup in Kiev.
But Menon’s statement inevitably becomes a big statement, not only because he is a profoundly experienced and thoughtful scholar-diplomat but also given the high position he holds and his key role as an architect of India’s foreign policy in the recent years. Simply put, he is India’s voice on the world stage.
To be sure, what Menon said will reverberate far and wide and would have been the content of many coded cables relayed by the antennae atop the chancelleries in Chanakyapuri to the world capitals yesterday.
The point is, what Menon said is one of the most significant statements made by Delhi in a long while regarding the contemporary international situation. No doubt, the Ukraine is a defining moment in the post-cold era world politics and by reflecting on its templates, Menon voiced India’s concern over the dangerous drift in world politics.
Menon’s remark draws comparison with the stance taken by China over the Ukraine crisis. With its trademark pragmatism — despite its much-vaunted ’strategic partnership of coordination’ with Russia — China underscores that the Ukraine is a complex issue where Beijing needs to coolly prioritize its self-interests. (See my earlier blog “China steers pragmatic course on Ukraine“) What is going to be the impact of the Ukraine crisis on the US’ strategy of ‘pivot’ to Asia? This will be the question uppermost on the Chinese mind. The point is, the US cannot take on Russia and China at the same time. It simply lacks the capacity to do that.
In fact, China’s State Councilor Yang Jiechi held a phone conversation on Thursday with US National Security Advisor Susan Rice where he “expounded China’s principled position” on the Ukraine situation (read sanctity of sovereignty and territorial integrity), called on all parties (including Moscow) to “exercise restraint and strive to settle the crisis through political and diplomatic means so as to prevent the situation from being aggravated.” (here). Quite obviously, China estimates that the fire that has been lit in Ukraine cannot be easily doused and a protracted confrontation between the West and Russia would work to China’s advantage. Put differently, China is indulging in doublespeak. Its propaganda apparatus queers the pitch for the West’s confrontation with Russia and, in fact, blatantly admits that Moscow is also fighting China’s cause by resisting western hegemony, while at the same time, Beijing’s diplomacy marks a careful distance from the Russian stance and takes to the high ground of ‘principles’.
Never once Beijing’s official statements came anywhere near taking note of Russia’s “legitimate interests”. The irony is that even Washington recognizes that Russia has interests in Ukraine and this was explicitly acknowledged by none other than President Barack Obama himself in yet another hour-long phone conversation with President Vladimir Putin yesterday. (White House readout). In fact, US-Russia consultations are under way and Putin has been constantly discussing Ukraine with his counterparts in ‘Old Europe’.
Be that as it may, can it be a coincidence that even as Obama was announcing limited US sanctions against Russia, Beijing got some brilliant news from the Americans?
It came in the way of a remark by the US ambassador to Japan Caroline Kennedy who said publicly in Tokyo on Thursday that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to the Yasukuni Shrine a couple of months ago (which upset Beijing to no end) was not a “constructive” move, after all, “because we really need to keep looking forward.” (China Daily).
Pray what took Ambassador Kennedy so long to sing the pleasing tune — and, she did it on a day China announced yet another big hike in defence expenditure. It will be worthwhile to see how Washington reacts to the hike in China’s military budget, which used to be upfront. The initial remark by the US state department has been noticeably mild.
All things taken into account, therefore, Menon’s statement yesterday needs to be carefully understood and put in its full perspective. What stands out ultimately is that India and Russia continue to enjoy a special trust on core issues of concern. Does India enjoy this level of mutual trust with any other big power? To my mind, the answer is a resounding ‘No’.
Trust, when genuine and mature, need not be worn on the sleeve or bandied about in sugar-coated rhetoric and purple prose. The fact that Menon made a suo moto statement rather than a solicited one — and that he was not called upon to supplement a high-level phone conversation that the two leaderships at the highest level just had regarding Ukraine — would enhance its meaning all the more for the Kremlin.
From Now on, No Compromises Are Possible For Russia
By Valentin Mândrăşescu, Editor of The Voice of Russia’s Reality Check. Former commodity trader, economist, journalist. Nomadic lifestyle. When not in Moscow, he can be found travelling across Eastern Europe.
When, on February 21st, Washington decided to default on the agreement signed between Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich and the so-called “democratic opposition,” including Neo-Nazis, it finally crossed the red line. Washington has defaulted on all of its key agreements made with USSR/Russia during the last 30 years. Gorbachev was promised that Eastern Europe would not be taken into NATO. Country by country, it became part of NATO, and Yugoslavia was dismantled despite Russia’s objections. The US acted as the winner of the Cold War and guided its policies by the famous principle of “Vae victis!” Woe to the vanquished! The “hawks” in Washington think they can push Russia around indefinitely, that Russia, in order to become an “accepted partner” in the West, would still try to negotiate, be diplomatic and peaceful. Washington’s defaulting on an explicit agreement regarding Ukraine’s future and the prospect of NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine finally convinced Vladimir Putin and a big part of the Russian elite that there is no point in negotiating with the US. It means that from now on, no compromises are possible. For America, the situation in Ukraine is a geopolitical game, another opportunity to hurt Russia’s interests. For Russia, it’s not a geopolitical game. It’s a matter of national identity, it’s an ethnic matter. Almost every Russian I know has relatives in Ukraine. Roughly a third of Russian senators and members of the government were born in Ukraine. Dmitry Yarosh, the leader of the biggest neo-Nazi group in Ukraine, issued a statement in which he called on Russia’s most wanted Chechen terrorist, Doku Umarov, to commit acts of terrorism in Russia. “Many Ukrainians with arms in the hands” had supported Chechen militants in their fight against Russians, the statement said, but “it is time to support Ukraine now.” What would have happened to a warlord somewhere who called on Al-Qaeda to commit acts of terrorism in the US? He would have been killed by a drone strike without international warrant or court decision. If the US does this, then other countries are entitled to act in a similar manner. The fact that the neo-Nazi leaders and their soldiers haven’t been disarmed despite the EU-brokered agreement signed on February 21st proves that they and not the “official government” are actually in control of the situation. But the US doesn’t care about the fate of the Russians who don’t want to live in a neo-Nazi-led state. The US wants to dislodge Russia from the region, and nothing else matters. There are rumors circulating in the expert community in Moscow – and I have strong reasons to believe they’re true – that the decision to tackle the Crimean issue was taken by Putin personally. He has full support from a number of top officials, especially from the army and the secret services, who have no assets and no business abroad that can be seized by the US. Also, in 2013, the Parliament passed a law barring Russian officials from owning assets, except real estate, outside Russia. So, the officials whose assets will be frozen by the US sanctions are criminals under Russian law anyway – and Putin might even welcome the move. The hard-liners in the Kremlin have received a tremendous boost from the US. Now, everyone who advocates for a softer stance on Ukraine and everyone who advocates for an “agreement with the US” is looked upon as too stupid to understand that Washington won’t honor its end of the bargain or as paid by Washington to lead Russia into another agreement that will once again be broken. America has lost most if not all of its ranking sympathizers or allies in Russia because they are either actively shunned or because they have to be silent. Putin’s ratings are at two-year highs. Even his fiercest critics understand that his involvement in Ukraine has tremendous popular support. He will no longer have to cater to the needs of the pro-Western community. He is now supported not only by his usual conservative electorate, but also by the communists and nationalists who like his decisive actions and his disregard for America’s objections. From the economic point of view, everyone should get ready for tough actions from Moscow. Sergei Glazyev, the most hardline of Putin’s advisors, sketched the retaliation strategy: Drop the dollar, sell US Treasuries, encourage Russian companies to default on their dollar-denominated debts, and create an alternative currency system (reference currency) with the BRICS and hydrocarbon producers like Venezuela and Iran. Of course, some “anonymous sources” told RIA Novosti and Reuters that Glazyev was speaking “as an academic” and not in his official capacity, but it must be pointed out that those sources didn’t dare identify themselves. On the other hand, Glaziev’s projects more often than not become the cornerstone of Putin’s external policy, including the Customs Union and the Eurasian Union. The Western media ignore another key supporter of hardline economic measures, Putin’s ally and trusted friend, Rosneft president Igor Sechin. At last October’s World Energy Congress in Daegu, South Korea, Sechin suggested that it was “advisable to create an international stock-exchange for the participating countries, where transactions could be registered with the use of regional currencies.” Until February 21st, Moscow was content with the slow expansion of its economic sphere of influence. Now, the hard-liners have the possibility to go all in and pursue their radical projects and strategies. Here, in Moscow, almost everyone is certain that we’ll see a rerun of the “Georgian war” and that Crimea will be attacked by Ukrainian army at some point before March 16th. If you’re a trader, sitting on the fence for a week or putting on some hedges may be a very good idea. By Valentin Mândrăşescu, exclusive for Testosterone Pit. The US offered Ukraine $1 billion in aid, the EU $15 billion. The IMF is working on its aid package. All to shift losses from lenders, bondholders, hedge funds... to taxpayers in other countries. But it won’t rescue the economy. Because it’s a cesspool of corruption and plundering oligarchs. Read... Aid for the Ukraine “Will Be Stolen” – Former Ukrainian Minister of Economy
TheArmenian wrote: and create an alternative currency system (reference currency) with the BRICS and hydrocarbon producers like Venezuela and Iran.
This spoke loudly to me . There is an urgent need for an alternative currency system for BRICS , especially Russia , India and South Africa . Question is what would be this alternative currency ?
flamming_python wrote:Apparently, there were 2 dead from the Russian side, which is what got the crowd into a rage. The Maidan 'activists' here were only a part of who arrived, but they are the ones were armed with shields, pepper sprays, metal poles, etc... so they are the ones who got surrounded. One of them got knifed it seems and died too.
and hear is view presented by the NATO NGO .. self defined as.. news agency VICE
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