The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

Since last week , Russia main theme of world media for events in Ukraine , I would write something related to the sanctions that the West could impose , and that according to some, could bring down the economy of the Russian Federation .

The facts of saying that the economy of the Russian Federation is extremely dependent on exports of primary energy , particularly crude oil ( with their associated refinery capacity - petroleum products ) and natural gas that make up 67.5 % of merchandise exports and 17.5 % of GDP. So , it is not dependent to the extent that they remained dependent export of primary energy ( Saudi Arabia , Iran , Kuwait , Iraq , UAE etc. . ) But is dependent to the same extent as the one Germany depends on exports of machinery , automobiles and chemical products ( 61 % of merchandise exports and 25.5 % of GDP) . Also not to be forgotten that Russia meets about 17 % of world demand for natural gas , 11 % crude oil and 11 % for petroleum products . Given the narrow global oil and gas market is written makes a global factor . So Russia and the world are dependent on Russian oil and gas exports .

Another important fact says that the Russian Federation due to the exports become financially independent country . In translation , Russia , that is, its economy is not financially dependent on the goodwill of the West or the East to finance its consumption and investment . Appearance speaking Russian Federation is not in the role of importer long as it contains the USA , UK , France or Croatia , but exporters long as China , Germany , and until yesterday , and Japan . Thus, the Russian Federation of the 1999th to 2013th in other states cumulatively exported debt by approximately 900 billion USD . Said reservoir makes it economically independent country and that is why the West is so hurt Russia's foreign and domestic policy . In translation , the West can not Russia nothing in her backyard as Russia can not do anything the West ( U.S. ) globally. This makes Russia a regional superpower , the United States and the global superpower .

I see that some people chant about sankacijama West to export Russian oil and gas . It is simply impossible because contracts are signed , and they signed most of the amounts that the existing infrastructure can support . In translation , the EU can not tell you how tomorrow will no longer import oil and gas from Russia than from Libya and Qatar , primarily because there is no infrastructure for such a thing , and secondly excess production capacity in these exporters . Likewise , Russia can not say the same about the EU. So , in that sense, the cards are stacked and the only thing we both can work through the construction of new infrastructure to provide new suppliers or buyers . We see that Russia is turning to Asia, Europe and Africa , the Middle East and America. But it takes time . In this sense, the Russian foreign exchange revenues from sales of oil and gas are secured . On the other hand , Russia may impose sanctions to say German or French export of chemical products , machinery and cars as an alternative to having it .

Second, the collapse in crude oil prices and natural gas prices on commodity exchanges also not realistic for this reason that the discrepancy between supply and demand is minimal, and this is confirmed by the prices on the world market . It is simply not there is excess production capacity as there is for example in the global manufacturing industry . Even if by some chance there as the largest OPEC producer on such proposals would hardly have responded positively , as the economies of its member states even more dependent on high cost of primary energy than the Russian economy . Another no less important reason is that , much of today's production of crude oil and natural gas from nekonvecionalnih source is cost effective at today's high prices, in the case of falling prices that production would become unprofitable .

The fact is , the economic , and thus political power of the West is declining . Germany is better to think twice about which direction they want to develop their economic relations with Russia . Even more so exports to the Russian Federation is almost 40 billion EUR ( EU approximately U.S. $ 123 billion - almost 90 % of their export manufacturing industry ) . And that's part of the pie that its direct competitive China , Korea , Japan and Taiwan are eager to take . Once you lose a customer it is very difficult to restore . Therefore, it is unlikely that Germany would support any sanctions that would accrue deepening crisis with Russia .

Russia is economically independent country and this fact Western elites hurts. In translation, in much of Spain, Portugal and Croatia to the West appears some undesirable power fot the West of the country economically can bring down on his knees, as long as Russia can not. To illustrate just one example, the Russian government gross debt is 190 billion or 10% of GDP, of which foreign creditors hold approximately 30% of the debt, or 3% of GDP. On the other side of the German national debt is approximately 80%, the U.S. and Britain 90%, France 95%, and the Italian 135% of GDP. For example, the national debt Croatian (state guarantees included) amounted to 82% of GDP, of which foreign creditors hold 42% of the debt.

From this position of Russia's foreign policy stems Vladimir Putin. The biggest losers in this whole story without a doubt themselves Ukrainians who unknowingly agree to it, that the West (mainly the U.S.) over their backs weighs geopolitical power against the Russian Federation. Paid by consumers of petroleum products due to instability as rising price of crude oil on the market. That means even more USD and EUR for the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, a decline in the purchasing power of average people in the importing country. Now, the "experts" from Fitch us to say that the current dnaas less risky USD and EUR borrow Italy and Croatia than Russia.

medo wrote:http://news.yahoo.com/ap-interview-yanukovych-hopes-crimeas-return-125042682.html

ROSTOV-ON-DON, Russia (AP) — Ukraine's ousted president, Viktor Yanukovych, said Wednesday that he was "wrong" to invite Russian troops into Crimea, and vowed to try to persuade Russia to return the Black Sea peninsula.

Ukrainian president invite Russian troops into Crimea, so it was not an occupation.

etaepsilonk wrote:

medo wrote:
Ukrainian president invite Russian troops into Crimea, so it was not an occupation.

And KLA invited foreign troops into Kosovo. It's only a matter of perception.


----------------
Quite an old piece, but not sure if this was posted before:
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2014-03-19/news/sns-rt-us-ukraine-crisis-donetsk-governor-20140319_1_crimea-ukrainian-nationalist-pro-moscow-activists

medo wrote:
There is a difference between terrorist group and elected president of state.

magnumcromagnon wrote:

medo wrote:http://news.yahoo.com/ap-interview-yanukovych-hopes-crimeas-return-125042682.html

ROSTOV-ON-DON, Russia (AP) — Ukraine's ousted president, Viktor Yanukovych, said Wednesday that he was "wrong" to invite Russian troops into Crimea, and vowed to try to persuade Russia to return the Black Sea peninsula.

Ukrainian president invite Russian troops into Crimea, so it was not an occupation.

Yanukovych is such a useless dead weight and incompetent case of a politician, now he's backtracking on what he asked for? Does he not care about 97% of the Crimean people wanted to join Russia? Does he not care that 88% of Ukrainian soldiers stationed in Crimea defected to the Russian military, and was allowed to keep their military rank and status?

zg18 wrote:About sanctions and economic interdependence between Russia & West (Germany) from Croatian forum:

Since last week , Russia main theme of world media for events in Ukraine , I would write something related to the sanctions that the West could impose , and that according to some, could bring down the economy of the Russian Federation .

The facts of saying that the economy of the Russian Federation is extremely dependent on exports of primary energy , particularly crude oil ( with their associated refinery capacity - petroleum products ) and natural gas that make up 67.5 % of merchandise exports and 17.5 % of GDP. So , it is not dependent to the extent that they remained dependent export of primary energy ( Saudi Arabia , Iran , Kuwait , Iraq , UAE etc. . ) But is dependent to the same extent as the one Germany depends on exports of machinery , automobiles and chemical products ( 61 % of merchandise exports and 25.5 % of GDP) . Also not to be forgotten that Russia meets about 17 % of world demand for natural gas , 11 % crude oil and 11 % for petroleum products . Given the narrow global oil and gas market is written makes a global factor . So Russia and the world are dependent on Russian oil and gas exports .

Another important fact says that the Russian Federation due to the exports become financially independent country . In translation , Russia , that is, its economy is not financially dependent on the goodwill of the West or the East to finance its consumption and investment . Appearance speaking Russian Federation is not in the role of importer long as it contains the USA , UK , France or Croatia , but exporters long as China , Germany , and until yesterday , and Japan . Thus, the Russian Federation of the 1999th to 2013th in other states cumulatively exported debt by approximately 900 billion USD . Said reservoir makes it economically independent country and that is why the West is so hurt Russia's foreign and domestic policy . In translation , the West can not Russia nothing in her backyard as Russia can not do anything the West ( U.S. ) globally. This makes Russia a regional superpower , the United States and the global superpower .

I see that some people chant about sankacijama West to export Russian oil and gas . It is simply impossible because contracts are signed , and they signed most of the amounts that the existing infrastructure can support . In translation , the EU can not tell you how tomorrow will no longer import oil and gas from Russia than from Libya and Qatar , primarily because there is no infrastructure for such a thing , and secondly excess production capacity in these exporters . Likewise , Russia can not say the same about the EU. So , in that sense, the cards are stacked and the only thing we both can work through the construction of new infrastructure to provide new suppliers or buyers . We see that Russia is turning to Asia, Europe and Africa , the Middle East and America. But it takes time . In this sense, the Russian foreign exchange revenues from sales of oil and gas are secured . On the other hand , Russia may impose sanctions to say German or French export of chemical products , machinery and cars as an alternative to having it .

Second, the collapse in crude oil prices and natural gas prices on commodity exchanges also not realistic for this reason that the discrepancy between supply and demand is minimal, and this is confirmed by the prices on the world market . It is simply not there is excess production capacity as there is for example in the global manufacturing industry . Even if by some chance there as the largest OPEC producer on such proposals would hardly have responded positively , as the economies of its member states even more dependent on high cost of primary energy than the Russian economy . Another no less important reason is that , much of today's production of crude oil and natural gas from nekonvecionalnih source is cost effective at today's high prices, in the case of falling prices that production would become unprofitable .

The fact is , the economic , and thus political power of the West is declining . Germany is better to think twice about which direction they want to develop their economic relations with Russia . Even more so exports to the Russian Federation is almost 40 billion EUR ( EU approximately U.S. $ 123 billion - almost 90 % of their export manufacturing industry ) . And that's part of the pie that its direct competitive China , Korea , Japan and Taiwan are eager to take . Once you lose a customer it is very difficult to restore . Therefore, it is unlikely that Germany would support any sanctions that would accrue deepening crisis with Russia .

Russia is economically independent country and this fact Western elites hurts. In translation, in much of Spain, Portugal and Croatia to the West appears some undesirable power fot the West of the country economically can bring down on his knees, as long as Russia can not. To illustrate just one example, the Russian government gross debt is 190 billion or 10% of GDP, of which foreign creditors hold approximately 30% of the debt, or 3% of GDP. On the other side of the German national debt is approximately 80%, the U.S. and Britain 90%, France 95%, and the Italian 135% of GDP. For example, the national debt Croatian (state guarantees included) amounted to 82% of GDP, of which foreign creditors hold 42% of the debt.

From this position of Russia's foreign policy stems Vladimir Putin. The biggest losers in this whole story without a doubt themselves Ukrainians who unknowingly agree to it, that the West (mainly the U.S.) over their backs weighs geopolitical power against the Russian Federation. Paid by consumers of petroleum products due to instability as rising price of crude oil on the market. That means even more USD and EUR for the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, a decline in the purchasing power of average people in the importing country. Now, the "experts" from Fitch us to say that the current dnaas less risky USD and EUR borrow Italy and Croatia than Russia.

http://www.forum.hr/showpost.php?p=49259002&postcount=4957

medo wrote:http://news.yahoo.com/ap-interview-yanukovych-hopes-crimeas-return-125042682.html

ROSTOV-ON-DON, Russia (AP) — Ukraine's ousted president, Viktor Yanukovych, said Wednesday that he was "wrong" to invite Russian troops into Crimea, and vowed to try to persuade Russia to return the Black Sea peninsula.

Ukrainian president invite Russian troops into Crimea, so it was not an occupation.

etaepsilonk wrote:Hey, medo. Now that Yanukovich (legally elected president and all that) dismissed Russian troops in Ukraine, maybe they should withdraw now?   

arpakola wrote:

Blackwater's instructor trains Ukrainian neo-nazis

Yanukovych is such a useless dead weight and incompetent case of a politician, now he's backtracking on what he asked for? Does he not care about 97% of the Crimean people wanted to join Russia? Does he not care that 88% of Ukrainian soldiers stationed in Crimea defected to the Russian military, and was allowed to keep their military rank and status?

And as I said, that difference is of one's perception.
For example, terrorist organisation SNC is recognized as legitimate government of Syria by quite a few countries.

Hey, medo. Now that Yanukovich (legally elected president and all that) dismissed Russian troops in Ukraine, maybe they should withdraw now?

What did he do for Berkut police unit, which defend him and Kiev for months?

So far I am still puzzled as to why did Putin seize Crimea. Can you elaborate on this?

Cuz it's clear that the seizure of Crimea will not solve any of Russia's problems, it will only create new ones.

Suddenly there are 2 millions of new people from a deficit region that need wages and pensions.

And Russian economy is facing a huge slowdown, prices of gas have already started falling and maxed out oil prices will start soon.

Russians will not create prosperity in Crimea if they can't even create it in their own country.

Only two possibilities come to my mind: either Putin is a madman who dreams about being a Tsar or the entire invasion is aimed at internal consumption. This option seems to be plausible - Putin is trying to divert the attention of people away from internal problems of their country, by playing on nationalist sentiments in Russia. By doing it he creates a "Russia str00nk" illusion that his foolish people then swallow.

flamming_python wrote:

magnumcromagnon wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

Regular wrote:

magnumcromagnon wrote:"We must shoot'em in the head" - a Ukrainian Nazi sponsor to the counter-coup protesters in the East:

It's even more pathetic when You realise that this guy is Russian.

When Russia invaded the Crimea he made a video lambasting Putin, but also calling on everyone not to fire on Russian soldiers, etc... because they are the same people as them.

Russia invaded Crimea? This is news to me, because last time I checked Russia had a legal military base in Crimea since 1997, and a military prescence in Crimea since the 1700's! There's this saying here in America "Remember the Alamo", I think in this scenario we should have a saying "Remember the Crimean War" pointing out the obvious fact that the Russians had a military presence in Crimea since forever, and that the British, the French, and the Turkish military powers have been trying to take that piece of land for themselves, I think those facts are quite relevant even today.

Well I guess the more correct thing to say is seized it.

But yeah, we took it alright. Like taking candy from a baby. First it was their's, now it's ours   

flamming_python wrote:

magnumcromagnon wrote:

medo wrote:http://news.yahoo.com/ap-interview-yanukovych-hopes-crimeas-return-125042682.html

ROSTOV-ON-DON, Russia (AP) — Ukraine's ousted president, Viktor Yanukovych, said Wednesday that he was "wrong" to invite Russian troops into Crimea, and vowed to try to persuade Russia to return the Black Sea peninsula.

Ukrainian president invite Russian troops into Crimea, so it was not an occupation.

Yanukovych is such a useless dead weight and incompetent case of a politician, now he's backtracking on what he asked for? Does he not care about 97% of the Crimean people wanted to join Russia? Does he not care that 88% of Ukrainian soldiers stationed in Crimea defected to the Russian military, and was allowed to keep their military rank and status?

......

He failed them, just like he failed to come to the conference on Feb 23rd in Kharkov where all the heads of the eastern regions were waiting for him. Instead he sent a video claiming he was being followed, and then after the conference everyone else fled too.
Like medo said - most of all, Yanukovich betrayed his own supporters

Laughable that he's going to come to Putin now and beg for the Crimea back. He should be delivered into the arms of the Ukrainians just for this insult.
If it wasn't for him none of this would have happened, his country would still be viable and whole.

ON TARGET: Putin’s moves in Crimea reveal West’s hypocrisy

As the situation develops in Ukraine, it is incredible to watch the hypocrisy of Western leaders as they attempt to demonize Russian President Vladimir Putin for his blatant aggression in Crimea.

Hillary Clinton, the former U.S. secretary of state, expressed the opinion that Putin must live in a “different world” if he thinks it is possible to simply redraw the map of Europe. This would be the same Hillary who stood by hubby Bill when the United States led a NATO bombing campaign against Yugoslavia in 1999.

The premise of that campaign was to support a militant Albanian separatist movement in the autonomous region of Kosovo. For 78 days, NATO warplanes pounded targets throughout Yugoslavia, destroying much of the power grid and killing over 1,200 innocent civilians in the process.

Following a negotiated ceasefire, NATO ground troops poured into Kosovo, and the U.S. promptly constructed a massive military base known as Camp Bondsteel on the disputed territory. In February 2008, without the benefit of any referendum, the Kosovo Albanians unilaterally declared their independence from Serbia.

This was of course rejected by those Serbs still living in protected enclaves within Kosovo, and by the Serbian government. The U.S. was the first country to recognize an independent Kosovo and, to date, the strong-arm tactics of the U.S. State Department have convinced 108 countries, including Canada, to follow suit. Apparently it is possible to redraw the map of Europe.

Closer to home, we have Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird leading the anti-Putin charge with the inevitable comparison of the Russian leader to Adolf Hitler.

It was this same Canadian dynamic duo that ensured Canada had a leading role in the 2011 NATO air campaign against Libya. It must be remembered that while the United Nations passed a resolution for NATO to enforce a no-fly zone over Libya, no one ever authorized a bombing campaign with the ultimate goal of regime change there.

Hundreds of Libyan civilians were killed during that NATO air campaign, which was commanded by Canadian Lt.-Gen. Charles Bouchard and included Royal Canadian Air Force combat planes.

With NATO’s direct support, Libyan president Moammar Gadhafi was eventually captured by the rebels and beaten to death in cold blood. With not a single NATO soldier killed or wounded in the conflict, Canada prided itself on the victory and staged an elaborate celebration on Parliament Hill. However, without any NATO presence on the ground, the victory over Gadhafi loyalists soon soured as Libya descended into armed anarchy.

Given all the positive media coverage for NATO’s success in Libya, there has understandably been almost no mention of the fact that a new rebellion is underway in that country.

Since last October, a new band of Libyan rebels has seized and held the crucial oil exporting port facilities in eastern Libya. Without any oil flowing, the central treasury in Tripoli (now held by the former rebels) is broke. Even the Libyan ambassador to Canada in Ottawa, Fathi Baja, has agreed with the assessment that his country is a failed state.

Let’s review a few of the major military interventions that have taken place over the past 15 years:

•In 1999, NATO bombed Yugoslavia without UN sanction for 78 days, militarily occupied the territory of Kosovo, later recognized it as independent and redrew the map of Europe.

•In 2001, the U.S. invaded Taliban-controlled Afghanistan without UN sanction to apprehend Osama bin Laden. For more than 12 years, NATO troops attempted and failed to bring about democracy in that country through military means.

•In 2003, the U.S. falsified the pretext that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction to invade the sovereign state of Iraq. The U.S. pulled out after a decade-long occupation, but Iraq remains gripped by widespread sectarian violence led by al-Qaida extremists.

•Then there was the 2011 NATO fiasco in Libya that directly resulted in the spread of heavily armed al-Qaida militants into Mali in 2012.

On the flip side, we have Russia’s (thus far) bloodless annexation of Crimea, complete with a favourable referendum result to illustrate local support.

Given those comparative results, it seems that Putin truly is living in a different world.

http://thechronicleherald.ca/opinion/1195386-on-target-putin-s-moves-in-crimea-reveal-west-s-hypocrisy?utm_source=website&utm_medium=mobi&utm_campaign=full-site

Werewolf wrote:

arpakola wrote:

Blackwater's instructor trains Ukrainian neo-nazis

Look at the weapons on the table.

TAR-21 israeli weapons another proof they got their fingers in coups in countries like it was proven in lybia,syria and egypt.

Speaking to journalists after the meeting, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen expressed hope that the suspension would not affect Russia's participation in joint international projects in Afghanistan, such as anti-drug efforts.

He also expressed hope that Russia's maintenance of Afghan air force helicopters and providing a transit route for deliveries of cargo to and from Afghanistan will not be affected.

GarryB wrote:If Ukraine survives till election time then everything will be fine... they wont like losing the Crimea to Russia but what can they do about it?

Russia was in exactly the same position at the end of the cold war till a couple of weeks ago.

Eventually this will blow over as long as there is no escalatation and there is no need for that.

Of course the funny thing is that NATO has decided to end all practical civilian and military cooperation with Russia... but here is the kicker...

Speaking to journalists after the meeting, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen expressed hope that the suspension would not affect Russia's participation in joint international projects in Afghanistan, such as anti-drug efforts.

He also expressed hope that Russia's maintenance of Afghan air force helicopters and providing a transit route for deliveries of cargo to and from Afghanistan will not be affected.

Hahahahahahahaha... personally I would continue to assist Afghanistan with their helicopters... as long as Afghanistan supports Russian activities in Crimea of course... a stable Afghanistan is in Russias interests... but allowing NATO to use Russian rail links and air space for their violation of Afghan sovereignty... well Russia can't assist NATO hippocrasy...

Read full article here:  http://en.ria.ru/world/20140402/188973288/NATO-Suspends-All-Practical-Coooperation-with-Russia---Statement.html

Werewolf wrote:

arpakola wrote:

Blackwater's instructor trains Ukrainian neo-nazis

Look at the weapons on the table.

TAR-21 israeli weapons another proof they got their fingers in coups in countries like it was proven in lybia,syria and egypt.

TR1 wrote:You guys make way too liberal use of the word neo-nazi.

arpakola wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

magnumcromagnon wrote:

medo wrote:http://news.yahoo.com/ap-interview-yanukovych-hopes-crimeas-return-125042682.html

ROSTOV-ON-DON, Russia (AP) — Ukraine's ousted president, Viktor Yanukovych, said Wednesday that he was "wrong" to invite Russian troops into Crimea, and vowed to try to persuade Russia to return the Black Sea peninsula.

Ukrainian president invite Russian troops into Crimea, so it was not an occupation.

Yanukovych is such a useless dead weight and incompetent case of a politician, now he's backtracking on what he asked for? Does he not care about 97% of the Crimean people wanted to join Russia? Does he not care that 88% of Ukrainian soldiers stationed in Crimea defected to the Russian military, and was allowed to keep their military rank and status?

......

He failed them, just like he failed to come to the conference on Feb 23rd in Kharkov where all the heads of the eastern regions were waiting for him. Instead he sent a video claiming he was being followed, and then after the conference everyone else fled too.
Like medo said - most of all, Yanukovich betrayed his own supporters

Laughable that he's going to come to Putin now and beg for the Crimea back. He should be delivered into the arms of the Ukrainians just for this insult.
If it wasn't for him none of this would have happened, his country would still be viable and whole.

true..
he is waste of space..