The Situation in the Ukraine. #5

TR1 wrote:So tell me, how is getting stuck in Ukraine going to make anything better?

What gold mine are you all expecting Russia will find there?
There will be much more serious sanctions if actual intervention takes place. This isn't a "clean cut" like the Crimea was.

Russia already nabbed a strategic location and 2 million people from Ukraine. How the hell have we "lost" anything?

I was never a proponent of the idea that Russia should be getting overtly involved in Ukraine, and I'm not one now.
What I've suggested times and times again on this forum is MORE covert actions, and LESS reactionary thinking. Russia should be proactive.
What boggles my mind is that from a Wikileaked cable, it's obvious that people in the Kremlin were aware of the consequences if Ukraine warms up to NATO, but they seem to have left it on America's good will to act rationally, and not instigate civil war and ethnic/religious divide there for its own geo-strategic merit. It's like they've not read a single history book, or have been sleeping through the last twenty odd years of US interventionism and democracy spreading. Hell, I even posted an article (and a book excerpt) from Solzhenitsyn predicting this very same thing happening half a century ago!
Unless they have a grand plan and the Americans played right into their game here. I'll leave it to you to judge how credible that idea is. I have my doubts.

Another thing that is very hard for me to swallow is - how on earth did Russia not have assets on the ground, especially in the 'Right Sektor' and 'Svoboda'. Americans can manage to infiltrate the most secretive ultra Islamist terror cells, the Israelis have had their moles in Hamas, Fatah etc, but Russia didn't seem to have one in neither of the aforementioned orgs. How the hell is that possible? Heads need to roll in the FSB/SVR...I mean what do they do there, watch paint dry all day long? How can they be caught off-guard on what's about to happen in a country right next door that has 80% Russian speakers?! I have a hard time coming to terms with that.

Other thing that Russia can do is play the Slavic sentiment in many nations. Though this might not be a very good idea given the Russian ambiguous foreign policy, so it might back-fire terribly. But they can still play the economic PR, and it's an effin' winner in these times of economic crises especially in South-East Europe. The cancellation of SouthStream? It's a PR Godsend FFS! They should be heavily influencing 'assets' in Bulgarian media to illustrate to the Bulgarian population just how much they stand to lose for being allied to America! Same with every Balkan nation. The Macedonian Government bent over backwards to be a part of SouthStream, and there are number of Pro-Russian (many more Anti-NATO) analysts here, that would just LOVE to make the said argument ("a little push" might be needed though).

Of course Russia can always resort to playing exactly the same way the Americans do. It can instigate trouble in the Empire's periphery, (and why not!) even in the Empire itself (many issues that can be exploited) in order to distract the Empire from Ukraine. Like the cliché goes: It's a chess game. There are many options when playing Geo-Political Chess. Russia should exploit every line of action, not limit itself to defensive actions. Another cliché is that "The best defense is a good offense"...

Long story short: Russia needs to be ahead of the curve, not constantly galloping behind the US. Anticipate their moves, and plan accordingly...
So far I've not seen that happening.

We're going around in circles with some of these rants.

And Sepheronx is outta control!   

Seriously though, as long as Russia keeps open the logistics channels for rebels (it doesn't have to supply much itself, just turn a blind eye), and they keep pressing forward, or at least are not isolated and wiped-out - there is no urgent need to invade in support of them. It is cynical but it is thus. Time is very, very much on their side. And before you guys scream about Russia not invading in support of their people, etc... remember that these are not Russian citizens; the people of Pridnestrovie also waged a hard battle, and a longer one, before they won their freedom - and they did it with no open borders with Russia and with less help; just with Cossack volunteers and with what they got from the sympathetic 14th army.
The people of Abkhazia & South Ossetia had an even harder time.
No reason at all why Lugansk and Donetsk can't manage this.

Each day the Ukrainian military fails to make any headway in Donetsk and Lugansk, is each day that the rebels organize defenses better and seize more local administrative and military control, gain more supplies and volunteers, that the Ukrainian economy worsens and separatist statement threatens to develop further in Kharkov and Odessa, that the Ukrainian military loses what small vestiges of support it had among Lugansk and Donetsk, that nationalism and Russophobia in the Ukraine threatens to go into the hangover phase and subsequently becomes ripe for a counter-movement, that the Ukrainian people lose faith in the Ukrainian military and its political leaders too.

The only serious thing that can threaten this whole process is if Putin really does cut off the rebels logistics channels; and puts them into a very bad position, therefore helping stabilize and cement the pro-Western government that committed massacres against pro-Russians and that was illegally installed in an unconstitutional coup by the very same powers that now threaten Russia to start helping stabilize it, or else..
I'm all for some grand strategy and chessboard moves, not taking the bait, etc... but this would be a great mistake, betrayal.. a moment of weakness if Putin did this that Russia would not be able to recover from in a long time.

However in regards to outright intervention - just because America keeps pushing more sanctions on Russia no matter what it does, that doesn't mean that the best option is an outright military invasion of the Ukraine.
Like I said, there are plenty of other reasons why that would be a less than ideal decision;
- crushing the budding anti-war movement in the Ukraine,
- potentially getting involved in very bloody partisan warfare,
- more bloodshed and killings of civilians, possibly ethnic cleansing in parts of the Ukraine not occupied by Russian forces,
- risking losing some support (not to be taken for granted giving the circumstances) from China, India and ex-Soviet countries,
etc...

I would like to make sure that none of what I am going to say would be misconstrued in any way, but I would like to address some of the specific points that have been made in this forum.

TR1 wrote:So tell me, how is getting stuck in Ukraine going to make anything better?

Based on military/scientific grounds, irrespective of Russia's objectives, the duration of any Russian involvement in Ukraine or any other region of the world will only be determined by Russia. No other region in the world (e.g., US or Solomon Islands) can have any influence on Russia's timetable.

In other words, for Russia to get "stuck" in Ukraine, Russia has to want to get "stuck" in Ukraine; it has to be part of the movie script that Russia writes.

Let me be clear and emphasize that here, irrespective of me knowing it or not, I am not suggesting that Russia should or is going to move into “Ukraine”, or that Russia should not or is not going to make such a move.

ASF wrote:I don't really think EU would dig it's own grave.

EU’s fate will be decided by its masters; EU has nothing to do with it.

TR1 wrote:Yeah because actually serious economic isolation is a good thing right   ?

By the way, I wasn’t the person that voted you down here.

I would actually like to give a response to your post. At the same time, without being rude, I should mention that since your comment is such a non sequitur at so many levels, I have to reserve a response for some other time in the future.

However, considering the nature of your post, your choice of the emoticon is all the more “interesting”.

A civil war in the Ukraine is not in anyones interests... least of all Russias.

The BEST result of a Russian invasion is enormous expense, isolation from the EU, all of the EU countries with significant Russian populations suddenly treating them real bad and isolating them in case they "try something". And the prize would be a broken and debt ridden Ukraine that will cost billions just to patch fix, with solutions decades away that will likely cripple the Russian economy for a decade or two.

For the Ukrainians themselves... the pro EU Ukrainians will see it as an attempt to drag them back into the Soviet Union and will fight tooth and nail against that. For the Pro Russians they can sit back and do nothing because all their freedoms are being fought for.
For the Neocons in the west the ultimate goal is achieved... send in some snipers and some people to make home made bombs and turn Ukraine into Afghanistan for the next 5 years.

If Russians are being abused and killed... let them choose to either fight back or vote with their feet and move to Russia.

To be brutally honest I get really annoyed at Kiwis who go on holiday in Asia and get caught in customs with drugs and who seem to think the New Zealand government should somehow get them off the death penalty.

If you move to a different country then you live by their rules and customs... if there is a problem then take part in democracy and deal with it yourself. Don't expect the home country to jump in and save you.

Russia invading the Ukraine would make it no better than the US invading Grenada.

It's Just my humble amateurish opinion.
Russian politics, esp Putin, were talking about protecting Russians abroad. They were moulding idea of russian identity, culture and how much it's unique. For me it looked similar as what Ukrainians tried to do, minus etno-fascizm(but it still does exist in light form). All this self praising was aimed to build russian world. It looks that it can really backfire.
I don't know what would have been the best for Russia. Should it acted with hard power and went for short, but decisive air campaign or act like it does now. At the start of ATO Russia could've sent Ukrainian army running when they entered separatist territories.. No boots were needed. I don't know what would be different than now, I don't know how West would reacted to this, but the fact is that no matter how Russia is backpedaling, West still pushes it to the corner.
After all that talk by Putin how Russia will intervene if civilians will die and not acting when Ukraine crossed every red line You can imagine. How do Russians abroad see Russia now?
Why did Russia gave false hope? People would have not taken up arms, volunteers wouldn't cross the border with brand new military kamaz trucks and all that. Some rebels said that Russia promised them aircover.. Why Russia got involved, but never commited? And You wonder Russia has no allies.
US on otherhand showed that they have final word in Europe. And they found Russian belly. Now it will take Russia into submission.
Things look grim for Russia

Russia invading the Ukraine would make it no better than the US invading Grenada.

But US invaded Grenada! And supported many separatists and anti-communists in South America

Some rebels said that Russia promised them aircover..

Russia never promised a direct military support.

Asf wrote:

Some rebels said that Russia promised them aircover..

Russia never promised a direct military support.

Officially, no, but some seps mentioned that on vk. And there was a video of rebel mentioning it. Was it a rumor or ukrainian dezinfo, idk.

But US invaded Grenada! And supported many separatists and anti-communists in South America

Indeed they did... and I think they were wrong to do so, just as I think it would be wrong for Russia to invade the Ukraine now.

Russia said it reserved the right to intervene in situations where Russian lives were under threat... that is not to say they will invade everytime a Russia life is at risk or ended.

You have to use military force with some intelligence... you have to ask if military force will make things better or worse.

In this case I think Putin believe sending Russian troops into East Ukraine would make things worse and I agree... not that he consults me regarding such things... he still hasn't sent me any of the presents I have asked for...    

Officially, no, but some seps mentioned that on vk.

They asked him via Twitter, may be?)

TR1 wrote:

sepheronx wrote:So South Stream is dead.

I wonder if our Russian members here will now stop and think "Maybe we should actually do something in East Ukraine then", as regardless on how Russia acts, US is pushing for more sanctions and limiting business with Russia.  Lose Ukraine entirely, and you will be more controlled ekconomically from outside pressure.  Seems that this current leadership is incompetent in this case.

Yeah because actually serious economic isolation is a good thing right ?

What about political isolation Russia faces now around the world .. if they dont act..
Can you imagine Putin going around  in countries .. and laughing behind his back ? saying

here comes the chicken ..  or through him yogurt on his face??
because those things are coming.. if he let his people to the Poroshenko teeth, beleve me..

Not sure if this was posted before:

ATO Forces Arrested a Group of Terrorists in Krasnyi Lyman
by Petro Zamakis on June 5, 2014

During the antiterrorist operation in Krasnyi Lyman Ukrainian forces managed to take the city under their control. They destroyed a major group of terrorists and arrested the others.

Check this link. They ALL LOOK LIKE CIVILIANS to me

Well most, if not all...

5 May 2014.First attempt to storm Semenovska near Slavyansk by Ukraine Special Forces Alpha and Jaguar.

Giving the fact that USA is interfering in the cultural identity and propagating in slavic nations a hostile conditioning of slavic people to distance themselfs to identify themselfs as slavic people and the constant russophobic Propaganda which is propagated especially in Baltic states like Lithunia and Estonia which even today youngsters are spewing out such blatant Propaganda about the "Russians trying to restore Soviet Union" and kill again Estonians into Millions. Yes such Nonsense you can hear from quite a significant number of Estonians, they were fooled for decades to hate Russians and believe they are actually German which is one of the reasons why they are prone for SS Division glorification which they hold parades.

Russia immidiatley needs to restore a Pan-slavism policy to counter this propaganda which shatters one and the same people into hostile nations towards each other and mainly russia and believe of themselfs being a fabricated identity and ethnicity.

This is one of my critic points towards Putin, because he does not want to follow Pan-slavism, i don't say that all slavic Nations should become one again, i just say they should be again reminded who they really are and not biting their own people just to please their masters in Pentagon, like Poland loves to do.

....anyway my intelligence agree that Russians winning on the battlefield for the time being.

I think Russia should stop building South stream pipeline and all pipes and money invest in building pipeline through China to India. Before winter they have to close pipelines through Ukraine for EU, because EU doesn't want their gas. India and China will be more than happy to get cheaper gas.

I really think Russia biggest mistake was not in Ukraine but to develop its economy very dependent to the European Union
that is a colony of U.S.  Now the Western NeoCons THugs blocked the South Stream pipeline blackmailing Bulgaria to do it.
HAd Russia first looked into EuroAsia ,and made those pipelines with CHina a decade earlier they will be fully covering now
All Asia and be selling far more GAS to Asia than they sell to Europe..   After the Russian Economy was well setup with EuroAsia,
with their Own Banks and CUrrency And the Shangai Cooperation Organization fully developed.. (the Euro Asia version of NATO with China,India,IRAN,kasakistan and other former Soviet Republics.. and yeah why not North Korea too)  Russia could have EASILY developed a Military alliance like never seen before in the planet before and the organization have several miltary Bases along the Border with Turkey Ukraine and Baltic States.. and will have allowed easily for Russia to simply show the finger to NATO and simply Invade Ukraine and restore Order , splitting Ukraine in parts after the coup..taking all South and Eastern Ukraine all the way to Belarus border all the way to Kiev borders.. Creating a New Country friendly to Russia with many Russian People. And none of the NATO countries will have dare to fight such formidable force and Obama sanctions will be worth of any shit..  

So in this ideal world Russia ,Russia will not be alone anymore with countering NATO. And for example Russia World alliance will have its own United Independent Nations political organization , and have already declared an invasion in Syria and Ukraine as soon the war start
and NATO start financing with money or weapons one side. And Russia  will not have to deal alone with the cost of any war anymore or worry about any Economical Trade relations.. Imagine what kind of military Force Russia ,China ,India ,IRAN ,Kasakistan ,other former soviet republics and yes North Korea could produce? add there Latin Countries.. Like Venezuela ,Ecuador ,Cuba, Nicaragua ,Brazil.Argentina.  Basically more than half of world population will be fully organized economically and militarily and will be able totally neutralize NATO criminal direct or proxy wars in the world. In that ideal world Russia -and Allies will be countering Major NATO axis of Terror and Russia will never have to worry about the Economy of invading a Nation like Ukraine if the cost are all shared by Half of the world.  Im sure ,that in the same way many people here
will easily donate $20 - to $100 dollars to help ending a provoked war by NATO and millions of civilians suffering for the war..many leaders of small nations will also love to help.. So the major Problem is ORGANIZATION. The bad guys seeking the world domination are well organized , and anyone else looking for its independence and developments not.  So Russia needs to organize a strong alliance and change seek to fully integrate its economy into EuroAsia.  In this Ideal World Russia with the exact same army they have ,they could have easily Invaded SYria and Ukraine as soon  the war start and will have the military ,economical and political support of 60-70% of the world.

US and its Mafia allies really needs to be kicked real hard in the Ass ,so they no longer fuel the violence or wars in the world or sabotage others nations  economies just because they want to be independent . But the The problem is lack of organization and not lack of Force . which they have plenty.. As long the US empire exist.. Terrorism ,wars and illegal overthrow of government will exist. I can't think
of a single regional war in the world or major revolution since 9/11 that was not involved United States or its major allies ,specially if the nations fight for their independence . Whether is Middle east ,Africa ,Europe or Latin America. Hopefully Russia will wake Up after Ukraine conflict and seek to develop a strong military alliance with EuroAsia.

Vann7 wrote:I really think Russia biggest mistake was not in Ukraine but to develop its economy very dependent to the European Union
that is a colony of U.S.  Now the Western NeoCons THugs blocked the South Stream pipeline blackmailing Bulgaria to do it.
HAd Russia first looked into EuroAsia ,and made those pipelines with CHina a decade earlier they will be fully covering now
All Asia and be selling far more GAS to Asia than they sell to Europe..   After the Russian Economy was well setup with EuroAsia,
with their Own Banks and CUrrency And the Shangai Cooperation Organization fully developed.. (the Euro Asia version of NATO with China,India,IRAN,kasakistan and other former Soviet Republics.. and yeah why not North Korea too)  Russia could have EASILY developed a Military alliance like never seen before in the planet before and the organization have several miltary Bases along the Border with Turkey Ukraine and Baltic States.. and will have allowed easily for Russia to simply show the finger to NATO and simply Invade Ukraine and restore Order , splitting Ukraine in parts after the coup..taking all South and Eastern Ukraine all the way to Belarus border all the way to Kiev borders.. Creating a New Country friendly to Russia with many Russian People. And none of the NATO countries will have dare to fight such formidable force and Obama sanctions will be worth of any shit..  

So in this ideal world Russia ,Russia will not be alone anymore with countering NATO. And for example Russia World alliance will have its own United Independent Nations political organization , and have already declared an invasion in Syria and Ukraine as soon the war start
and NATO start financing with money or weapons one side. And Russia  will not have to deal alone with the cost of any war anymore or worry about any Economical Trade relations.. Imagine what kind of military Force Russia ,China ,India ,IRAN ,Kasakistan ,other former soviet republics and yes North Korea could produce? add there Latin Countries.. Like Venezuela ,Ecuador ,Cuba, Nicaragua ,Brazil.Argentina.  Basically more than half of world population will be fully organized economically and militarily and will be able totally neutralize NATO criminal direct or proxy wars in the world. In that ideal world Russia -and Allies will be countering Major NATO axis of Terror and Russia will never have to worry about the Economy of invading a Nation like Ukraine if the cost are all shared by Half of the world.  Im sure ,that in the same way many people here
will easily donate $20 - to $100 dollars to help ending a provoked war by NATO and millions of civilians suffering for the war..many leaders of small nations will also love to help.. So the major Problem is ORGANIZATION. The bad guys seeking the world domination are well organized , and anyone else looking for its independence and developments not.  So Russia needs to organize a strong alliance and change seek to fully integrate its economy into EuroAsia.  In this Ideal World Russia with the exact same army they have ,they could have easily Invaded SYria and Ukraine as soon  the war start and will have the military ,economical and political support of 60-70% of the world.

US and its Mafia allies really needs to be kicked real hard in the Ass ,so they no longer fuel the violence or wars in the world or sabotage others nations  economies just because they want to be independent . But the The problem is lack of organization and not lack of Force . which they have plenty.. As long the US empire exist.. Terrorism ,wars  and illegal overthrow of government will exist. I can't think
of a single regional war in the world or major revolution since 9/11 that was not involved United States or its major allies ,specially if the nations fight for their independence . Whether is Middle east ,Africa ,Europe or Latin America. Hopefully Russia will wake Up after Ukraine conflict and seek to develop a strong military alliance with EuroAsia.

Russia is well aware of all this, but they need time. 20 years ago US was in peak of it power, while Russia and China was in its lowest. They have to rebuild their countries. 15 years ago, there were no oil or gas pipelines to Russian Far East, now they reach China and Pacific. 15 years ago Russia have to import food, now they are exporters of food. They have to build and modernize their industrial complex to modernize its economy and army. They have to rebuild their communications. All this need time and that is why US could easily terrorize and manipulate the World from their upper hand position and with power of printing limitless amounts of FIAT money. Difference between now and 15 years ago is, that now Russia already sell oil and gas in Asia and in Pacific region. With more pipelines they will only increase sells in this region ans could reduce sell to EU. But to play dirty, Russia could also fuel civil war in Iraq and Libya, to prevent selling of gas and oil from them to EU. With Russia closing its pipelines and Libya in civil war, EU have no alternative to replace the shortage of gas and oil and this will be a great blow to EU economy.

A page or so back, I made the pt about Putin not having intervened in Chechnya, Ossetia etc early on.
That wasn't meant as a defence of the non intervention in Donetsk etc. More that I was thinking "was Russia's foreign military policy ever any good in the 1st place".

In v recent history, from Lvov to |Vladivostock was all one country. Then a drunk, self-serving opportunist idiot (Yeltsin), togther with a like minded individual who was nothing more than a state governor decided that one country would be split in 3. Ofcourse it was as democratic as.. Genghis Khan. Yet this nonsense is given credence today. Who by? A Kenyan dickhead thousands of miles away. One who doesn't know 1st thing about any of it.

So why is it Kiev has moral authority to bomb civillians ANd Moscow doesn't have moral authority to defend them?

Answer:Ofcourse not! Only Moscow, not Kiev has the moral authority. To suggest otherwise is ridiculous, plain bizarre. This all feels like a hangover of the really bad old days. Doctors forced to sell shit on the subway to make ends meet, oligarchs robbing homes and share certificates from their rightful owners, scum driving round in Bentleys.

I dont feel that Kiev will be shaken up by this. Maybe Moscow will. Is Russia the place it was in 1992?
Surely not...!

PS ofcourse there is the issue of the "secret Putin masterplan". Well ofcourse we all wait for that.
But one thing I feel is, either you are a master, or you are a slave...
700bn USD in state of the art rearnamament inc PAk Fa, Bulava etc doesn't suggest slave.
And yet corrupt wankers in Kiev think they can murder 100s of Russians, while Moscow stands back.
Something doesn't make sense. Only time will tell what.

Hannibal Barca wrote:....anyway my intelligence agree that Russians winning on the battlefield for the time being.

My "+" vote for being on-topic.

The Ukraine is the most unsuccessful country in Europe. It started with everything, and is now a collapsing state.

I fail to see how it could possibly get any better, even if a ceasefire is declared, etc... the Ukrainian economy is ruined and is heading down the tubes; I for one don't want a single ruble to go into that place - Putin is negotiating with Poroshenko for what - to salvage some of this wreck? Why?

I think the Ukraine in its current borders was a historical mistake. I don't deny the need for a Ukrainian national state - but why were so many Russian regions included; Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa, Crimea, Kharkov, Kherson, etc...
The only thing that this country has been successful at since 1991 - is nationalism; largely of the ethno-nationalist variety - and it has been very successful in that respect, to the point where its now promoting WW2-era Ukrainian Nazi slogans not only in Kiev and central Ukraine but even among the historic Russian regions, etc... and many people are enthusiastically lapping them up as symbols of 'Ukrainian unity', forgetting what these slogans actually stand for and how their own forefathers had fought against this same menace. Absolutely disgraceful - people within the Ukraine government; CIA-linked officials, oligarchs, Western Ukrainian nationalists with foreign links, etc... has been using the Ukraine's money (largely from trade with Russia) to manufacture propaganda and nationalism.
It matters not for the nationalist Ukrainian, that their country stands to lose all independence and its economy, the main thing is and always has been - independence from Russia. This would in their mind, allow them to 'Ukraininize' the population further, which is the priority right now, and wipe out as much vestige of Russian influence and language as possible. They care about nothing else.

And look what's happening now as a result - Russo-Ukrainian relations are being poisoned. If the Ukraine kept itself to the western and central regions, even including Kiev, Poltava, Kirovograd... fine whatever, I doubt there would have been any particular conflicts between Russians and Ukrainians, maybe some Ukrainian butthurt but otherwise they could have been another Belarus.

some interesting little info..about a car bomb explosion in kiev same day Poroshenko become President and
anti-Government rallies in Kiev that same day ,blocking the streets against the law of mandatory military service.
So it looks pretty much the easter Ukraine is far from the only problems of kiev.. and there is a split growing in Ukraine
Society even in the Pro EU cities.

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Ополченцы под Луганском захватили три танка Т-64 украинских ВС

Источник: http://politikus.ru/events/21114-opolchency-pod-luganskom-zahvatili-tri-tanka-t-64-ukrainskih-vs.html
Politikus.ru
http://politikus.ru/events/21114-opolchency-pod-luganskom-zahvatili-tri-tanka-t-64-ukrainskih-vs.html

Eric Morse: Canadian fighters in Ukraine might make Harper nervous
http://ottawacitizen.com/news/world/canadian-fighters-in-ukraine-might-make-harper-nervous

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Kings of Ukrainian Gas
http://antac.org.ua/en/2012/08/kings-of-ukrainian-gas/