The Situation in the Ukraine. #6

magnumcromagnon wrote:

Starlight wrote:

flamming_python wrote:The panickers have arisen   

Porky will end up on the grill courtesy of his own hungry people, and yet some people are saying that he's gonna be retaking the Crimea. Gold.

The massacre in Odessa was a war crime and an act of war

The correct response to that is not to support Poroshenko's election (unless you have the mentality of a slave)

Soon Porky will starve the populations of Lugansk and Donetsk

The Ukrainian army will be just as starved with Poroshenko's rations of moldy bread.

Washington's geo-strategists have made Moscow completely impotent with the threat of more sanctions. Moldy bread is an easy problem for Wall Street financiers

TheGeorgian wrote:

TR1 wrote:Get real.

Crimea is staying. Poroshenko is yapping to the masses, he has no teeth whatsoever.

Territorial claims shift to here and there nowdays. It's about political value than anything else !

War isn't allways necessary to achieve that. If they can force Putin/Kremlin to rethink their decision, they will eventualy be able to reclaim it. After all that issue is not 100% done yet.

Yes but Putin has clearly cast his political fortunes on taking Ukraine.

I envisage no scenario in our lifetimes that Crimea will change hands. And the kind of steps needed to do it (if possible at all) are not in the interest or capability of Europe or the US either.

TR1 wrote:

I envisage no scenario in our lifetimes that Crimea will change hands. And the kind of steps needed to do it (if possible at all) are not in the interest or capability of Europe or the US either.

You are mistaken. If hundreds can be slaughtered with impuity, towns bombed for weeks on end, and hundreds of thousands (with the number accelerating) turned into refugees, because a frightened Russian elite doesn't want any more sanctions, then it is easy to have a scenario where increased sanctions could force a change of status of Crimea

Starlight is right we are losing because the oligarchs don't want to lose their money!!!
There must be immediate strikes against all military targets in Ukraine. After the west applies sanctions against Russia. Russia must conquer Ukraine build a new country (Novorussia) after this ensure the safety of the Russian population in the Baltic's. Secure the areas and take it under Russian control. Transnistria must become again a part of Russia. Full support for Syria and make it clear that any attempt of the west to try to intervene will be answered with immediate nuclear strikes.

Strizh wrote:Starlight is right we are losing because the oligarchs don't want to lose their money!!!
There must be immediate strikes against all military targets in Ukraine. After the west applies sanctions against Russia. Russia must conquer Ukraine build a new country (Novorussia) after this ensure the safety of the Russian population in the Baltic's. Secure the areas and take it under Russian control. Transnistria must become again a part of Russia. Full support for Syria and make it clear that any attempt of the west to try to intervene will be answered with immediate nuclear strikes.

Air strikes? The elite in Moscow is terrified of sending even one military aircraft over the skies of Donetsk

Forget about Baltics, forget about Ukraine. Just saving the people of Donbass would be a huge achievement, but this looks unlikely

Starlight wrote:

TR1 wrote:

I envisage no scenario in our lifetimes that Crimea will change hands. And the kind of steps needed to do it (if possible at all) are not in the interest or capability of Europe or the US either.

You are mistaken. If hundreds can be slaughtered with impuity, towns bombed for weeks on end, and hundreds of thousands (with the number accelerating) turned into refugees, because a frightened Russian elite doesn't want any more sanctions, then it is easy to have a scenario where increased sanctions could force a change of status of Crimea

It is their nation. Nations have violated rights of their citizens internally since day 1 of sovereignty. It changes...nothing.

Intervening further in Ukraine would be bad for Russia period, not just elites. It is not a board game like the tabletop generals in this thread think.

There is no realistic scenario for Crimea being forced away from Russia. None of the Russian trade partners and major oil importers have given two shits in the grand scheme of things. As soon as Ukraine calms down, its business as usual.

Strizh wrote:Starlight is right we are losing because the oligarchs don't want to lose their money!!!
There must be immediate strikes against all military targets in Ukraine. After the west applies sanctions against Russia. Russia must conquer Ukraine build a new country (Novorussia) after this ensure the safety of the Russian population in the Baltic's. Secure the areas and take it under Russian control. Transnistria must become again a part of Russia. Full support for Syria and make it clear that any attempt of the west to try to intervene will be answered with immediate nuclear strikes.

I am so glad you children don't make policy.

Most of Europe cant understand why Russia hasnt intervened.
Much of America is disgusted by America's troublemaking in the Ukraine.

So why the fuck is Putin allowing Russian people in Donbass (yes Russian people, banned from having Russian passports!) to be treated like how Bush treated Saddam Hussein?

TR1 wrote:

Intervening further in Ukraine would be bad for Russia period, not just elites. It is not a board game like the tabletop generals in this thread think.

There is no realistic scenario for Crimea being forced away from Russia. None of the Russian trade partners and major oil importers have given two shits in the grand scheme of things. As soon as Ukraine calms down, its business as usual.  

Russia will probably have to follow instructions, as with Milosevic. If not, there will be consequences. Geo-politics is broader and sits above oil trade

Everybody knows that the Russian government encouraged the people of Donbass (who in all fairness wanted to be free from Kiev for some time), and then stopped supporting them. It stopped because the elite is afraid of further sanctions

You think sanctions will be good for the average Russian?

Hint, no, they will not.

TR1 wrote:You think sanctions will be good for the average Russian?

Hint, no, they will not.

If you are terrified of anything, including sanctions, then you have lost already (But life for a self sufficient country like Russia may actually mostly continue as before)

TheGeorgian wrote:

TR1 wrote:Get real.

Crimea is staying. Poroshenko is yapping to the masses, he has no teeth whatsoever.

Territorial claims shift to here and there nowdays. It's about political value than anything else !

War isn't allways necessary to achieve that. If they can force Putin/Kremlin to rethink their decision, they will eventualy be able to reclaim it. After all that issue is not 100% done yet.

Your living in delusion man , if you think that Russia will give away Crimea ,just to not annoy Poroshenko or Obama.
Don't sit waiting for that. To attack Crimea is a declaration of war against Russia and Russia will wipe Ukraine in a few hours all their army.
I actually believe they will do it but for others reasons.. NATO CIA mercenaries cronies are in Ukraine border helping the neonazis ,and nothing stop them to launch a missile against any part of Russia.. But such attack have nothing to do ,with taking crimea back but with
Revenge . And a attempt to provoke Russia into fighting Ukraine in a major war.


You know why NATO do not give Ukraine and Georgia a membership ?
Because both of them have high probability to provoke Russia into a war again.. And it will look very bad Russia fighting
A NATO member and US and its allies doing nothing.. Simply NATO is not going to risk world war 3 with Russia and a nuclear war ,
for 2 small countries that they absolutely cares nothing about.

Vann7 wrote:

You know why NATO do not give Ukraine and Georgia a membership ?
Because both of them have high probability to provoke Russia into a war again.. And it will look very bad Russia fighting
A NATO member and US and its allies doing nothing.. Simply NATO is not going to risk world war 3 with Russia and a nuclear war ,
for 2 small countries that they absolutely cares nothing about.

You are mistaken

NATO membership is not required for NATO to start a war. Look at Yugoslavia. NATO member Turkey invaded Cyprus, killing 6,000 people and it is still in occupation. NATO can make excuses to attack Ukraine or Georgia as it did in Afghanistan

The Odessa massacre (and the fear of the Russian elite to respond) started Russia's defeat in Ukraine

Starlight wrote:

TR1 wrote:You think sanctions will be good for the average Russian?

Hint, no, they will not.

If you are terrified of anything, including sanctions, then you have lost already (But life for a self sufficient country like Russia may actually mostly continue as before)

Yeah who needs a growing economy and a rising standard of living, North Korea is the way to go.

TR1 wrote:

Starlight wrote:

TR1 wrote:You think sanctions will be good for the average Russian?

Hint, no, they will not.

If you are terrified of anything, including sanctions, then you have lost already (But life for a self sufficient country like Russia may actually mostly continue as before)

Yeah who needs a growing economy and a rising standard of living, North Korea is the way to go.

The frightened oligarchs will be enormously grateful for your support!
Maybe those who are being massacred and bombed by Washington's stooges in Kiev would prefer North Korea!

flamming_python wrote:

You know, back in Stalin's time, people like you would have been executed as suspected provocateurs attempting to ferment panic among the population/troops.

Your making absolutely no sense! Can you explain?

So now the Oligarchs are the bad guys?

But Putin, who this forum was all over before this Ukraine-mess, and his circle of thieves are ok?

I think you guys are barking up the wrong tree...the following is my own interpretation of events.

It's not so much sanctions that Russia is worried about but a serious permanent break down of relations with the EU. As the saying goes, war is a continuation of policy via other means. And policy and war are almost always about gaining some economic advantage. In short, the US policy is to build a virtual wall between the EU and Russia and prevent further economic cooperation/integration between them.

Russia's policy is to have a working relationship with the EU and as a bonus, try to steer the EU (or at least it's major members) towards a more independent foreign policy position instead of blindly following Washington at it's own detriment.

Russia doesn't want just the Donbass enclave. It wants a Ukraine that will serve as a bridge for it's economy towards the EU.

I think the Russian leadership are convinced that the Kiev regime is unsustainable and that it will not be around for long. They believe that after the fall of the regime, they can engineer a federal Ukraine where the Russian regions will be able to join the Customs Union, while the western regions can have their EU association.

Maybe the Kiev regime wont be around too long. It doesnt need that long to commit mass slaughter of civillians.

Real countries operate on a principle of deterrence. Thats why Russia spends trillions on ICBMs etc.
If you wont apply your deterrent, you have no credibility. People can piss around, but these are Russians in Donbass, Odessa, Kharkov etc. They might be Russians from Donbass etc, rather than Russians from Muscovy, but they're still Russians. Whatever Ukr passport law precludes.

And as for sanctions, they won't work. Europe NEEDS Russian oil. The US hardly trades with Russia (except for vital rockets and titanium). And most people cant understand why Russia hasnt finished thejob mths ago.

I know people involved in the sanctions business. Its all bullshit. You simply sell via a 3rd party country. Or via a 3rd party country company. Iran is public enemy number one in the US. And American companies happily trade with em all day. There's also the element of tit for tat.

America was simply trying to fuck up the EU. And the EU saw thro it.

As for the BRICS meeting, wasnt all this decided mths/yrs back? Why should that be the latest justifn for non intervention. The Ukraine has a shitpot military, it doesnt need BRICS approval.

As for sanctions, how exactly are they going to affect the course of this war, considering that Russia's involvement was minimal-to-none anyway?

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" By the evening of July 7 in support of Strelkov voted the entire political leadership of DNR - Boroday, Gubarev, Pushilin, Tsarev."

America's basically been saying "make sure Donbass lose the war". Otherwise we'll bring in more sanctions.

And we had Jen Pskanky taunting Russian journalists over the slaughter by hohols.

Russia should say "an eye for an eye" and start causing shit on American soil. It was interesting to note the RT article today talking about US militias vs Latino illegal migrants...

Maybe Russia should arm the Latinos to "reclaim their land" or whatever..

Firebird wrote:Maybe the Kiev regime wont be around too long. It doesnt need that long to commit mass slaughter of civillians.

What are the casualty figures so far?...I wouldn't call it a mass slaughter if you compare it to similar conflicts. It's starting to heat up now, but until recently it's been a sort of a phony war.

Anyway, by saving the bulk of the fighters from the Slavyansk front, the pro-Russians have bought themselves some time. The most important point is probably Saur Mogila heights which they control. If they can hold it, the Kiev regime forces will find it hard to move on Donetsk (difficult to establish supply lines without control of the heights). It was the sight for hard battles in WWII as well. There are reports that Ljashko's battalion has lost about 2/3 of it's personel assaulting the Saur Mogila heights in the past few days.