The Situation in the Ukraine. #6

Firebird wrote:So Suktievilli from Georgia eats his tie.
And Twatsenyuk eats plastic flags.

Where does America dig these clowns up from?

__________
A tactical thing, I'm wondering if it would be worth having unrest in Odessa,Kharkov etc?
I know the limited Resistance numbers mean it would be hard gaining control of these places just yet. And its better to win the fight in Donbass 1st.

But if the junta troops are having to travel between Donbass and say, Odessa, they can be picked off by guerilla style tactics?

I haven't heard a lot about rebellions outside Donbass recently (because people are concentrating the fight on Donbass) but perhaps this tactic would work. Esp if weapons were sent in from Transnitria etc.

I also note that there is discussion its dangerous to travel on roads between Donbass and elsewhere, because Shite Sektor are attacking cars.

its all a matter of moral
the situation in Donbass has to be stabilised first , that is the Uks get f..ked for good over there first

then the hope  will do the rest. At the moment dont expect the population to act as they are not yet sure  what is Russias intentions.
Start wining .. and the avalanche will start as the potential is there.. waiting for the moment

Ukraine’s prime minister resigns as coalition falls apart

As intense fighting continued Thursday in eastern Ukraine, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk announced his resignation after two parties said they would pull out of the governing coalition, according to news service reports.

“I am announcing my resignation in connection with the collapse of the coalition,” Yatsenyuk said in parliament. He said parliament could no longer do its work and pass necessary laws, according to the Associated Press.

The nationalist Svoboda party and the Udar party led by former boxer Vitali Klitschko pulled out of the coalition. Speaker Oleksandr Turchynov said it was up to those parties to propose a candidate for temporary prime minister to lead the government until early parliamentary elections can be held.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/intense-battles-continue-in-eastern-ukraineaustralia-to-send-police-to-guard-crash-site/2014/07/24/2c6bc1c0-1315-11e4-8936-26932bcfd6ed_story.html

It's a little too early for this but I think is important after all this debacle finish to push all the non Russian out of Ukraine once and for all.
They are a factor of instability and permanent backwardness.

flamming_python wrote:

Morpheus Eberhardt wrote:
FP,

Are you being paid for this?

I haven't forgotten the conversation we had about a couple of month ago.

Yes, I am being paid for this, I've switched allegiences to the Ukrainian government, SLAVA UKRAINY!!  

And what conversation?

Yeeew.   By the way, has Ukraine ever thanked Russia for gifting it with so many foreign territories or all that it talked about was Holodomor and such?   

[quote="flamming_python

Anyway, I think my government is lying, and so too are the rebels whose leaders and principles I've held in high regard. Not sure of it, but I think it's more probable than not.

[/quote]

That's the most curious thing. If your government is lying and the rebels too, they're going to be crucified if they're caught red-handed. Already the Western politicians and media have decided who the main culprit is even if no official results have been released yet. Just imagine what's going to happen if they actually find a real evidence against either Russia or the separatists. If Putin knows there was the separatists' hand or is a possibility to be himself exposed as having the slightest connection with this action, the most logical move would be to find a way to wash his hands of them, tough luck, but he has to save his own country and himself. Instead, he does the opposite, despite of the fact that Russia is permanently threatened with harder and harder sanctions. Why does he do it if he's lying? Does he hope there's no chance for the truth to come out or what?

Here is how I am seeing it:

- US claims it has evidence of Russia's involvement, but does not release anything. All that is being said are so called evidence from twittersphere and youtube.
- Russia states they are not involved and provides satellite photo and radar reading evidence.
- US still has not provided anything
- 10 questions were asked by Russia, which none have been answered so far
- US claims they have evidence of Russia using artillery from Russia to Ukraine
- Video being used as evidence shows it very well could be from North Ossetia. So in other words, not close to Ukraine.

The thing is, the US keeps stating they have evidence, but none is shown at all. And members like Flaming Python is starting to believe what the west is stating, which makes little sense. I mean, should we not have evidence before pointing fingers? Innocent till proven guilty? And as such, who has a bigger history for false flags and destabilizing countries? Lets see, US is funding and arming terrorists in Syria. Funded and armed groups in Afghanistan. Funded and supplied groups in Iraq. Funded and armed groups in Libya. Created false evidence for invasion of Iraq. Claimed they have evidence that Syria used chemical weapons. Whatever happened to that? After it was pretty much shown that it could be fake or not from Syrian government, they couldn't commit to Syria. So now Ukraine, after McCain and the likes show up, and audio evidence showing Nuland involved, happens and the country destabilizes; yet somehow Russia is to be blamed?

Usually, the ones yelling the loudest are the guilty ones. US seems to be screaming at this point throwing sanctions after sanctions in order to make sure limelight is off of them and their guilt.

flamming_python wrote:

Morpheus Eberhardt wrote:
FP,

Are you being paid for this?

I haven't forgotten the conversation we had about a couple of month ago.

Yes, I am being paid for this, I've switched allegiences to the Ukrainian government, SLAVA UKRAINY!!  

And what conversation?

Well, the conversation is in one of these threads, most probably in this one.

sepheronx wrote:Here is how I am seeing it:

- US claims it has evidence of Russia's involvement, but does not release anything.  All that is being said are so called evidence from twittersphere and youtube.
- Russia states they are not involved and provides satellite photo and radar reading evidence.
- US still has not provided anything
- 10 questions were asked by Russia, which none have been answered so far
- US claims they have evidence of Russia using artillery from Russia to Ukraine
- Video being used as evidence shows it very well could be from North Ossetia.  So in other words, not close to Ukraine.

The thing is, the US keeps stating they have evidence, but none is shown at all.  And members like Flaming Python is starting to believe what the west is stating, which makes little sense.  I mean, should we not have evidence before pointing fingers?  Innocent till proven guilty?  And as such, who has a bigger history for false flags and destabilizing countries?  Lets see, US is funding and arming terrorists in Syria. Funded and armed groups in Afghanistan.  Funded and supplied groups in Iraq. Funded and armed groups in Libya.  Created false evidence for invasion of Iraq. Claimed they have evidence that Syria used chemical weapons.  Whatever happened to that?  After it was pretty much shown that it could be fake or not from Syrian government, they couldn't commit to Syria.  So now Ukraine, after McCain and the likes show up, and audio evidence showing Nuland involved, happens and the country destabilizes; yet somehow Russia is to be blamed?

Usually, the ones yelling the loudest are the guilty ones.  US seems to be screaming at this point throwing sanctions after sanctions in order to make sure limelight is off of them and their guilt.

All those speeches of US having evidences against Russia or Syria,Iran or any other country is just talk to create in western worlds for the average stupid citizen the perception that those countries are evil and the entire "civilized" world is against those "rogue countries".

All those laughable sanctions of some private persons in russia have not the goal to actually sanction russia but again just to create the open public perception that Russia is getting isolated, the US knows they can not isolate russia in economy, military nor politically, but when they can do is to keep the worlds divided, west and east, since all the economy crisis, anger against US for the blatant lies and military aggressions against countries that were never a threat to any NATO country, the spying, the blackmailing and so on, all that is damaging US image and the slave status of all NATO countries under USA are threatend by the more and more awakening sheeps and start to get grumpy towards their own regimes and the US empire.

They have no capabilities to take on russia in any field be it military,political or economy, they can harm it with this stupid claims of proof here and evidence there and false flag operations in Ukraine but they can not change the situation like it is, US is falling and that is unavoidable, soon there will be no country with the name UNITED states of america and the only way US knows how to help their dying economy is by experience of creating major wars, like WW1 flase flag operation with Lusitania that framed Germany as evil and justified entrance of war, WW2 Pearl Harbor even tho US intelligence new it in advance after intercepting and cracking japanese code, or Tonkin False Flag and more. The US economy always sky rocketed in major wars and that is how they avoid getting bankrupt. And that is the reason why they so eagerly push for a war in Europe with Ukraine vs Russia and trying to tune Poland to go against russia, that is what they want.

They can try. But eventually, their talk will run out when other countries will be targeted and they start to question things. Right now, they are useful idiots.

I say Russia should one up them, and agree to sell Gas to Ukraine and Europe, only at the expense that Ukraine pays off their gas debts, and Russia gets to set the price they want. As well, anyone wanting to sell crap to Russia through the west, should go through extreme VAT so Russian gov can use the money to build alternative, and let EU rot. EU is in trouble, since they rely billions on sales to Russia. Hence why they are not really enthusiastic as US is. As for Ukraine, well, that country was messed to begin with.

I just find pathetic and Pure Idiocy the comments of Trolls saying Russia lies ,Rebels lies but without providing a single reason why.     "Oh no ..i have the "feelings" my government lies and Rebels did it." Then i say to them your feelings are worth of shit in this discussion.  Just show any tangible information that we could discuss ,debunk or confirm about Russia "lies" or Rebels "lies" when they say they didn't shot it down.

-We have lots of factual evidence (and unconfirmed but appears to be credible information) that points
that not only  Ukraine shoot down the plane but that it was a staged event to frame the Pro Russian side..
just like the chemical weapons attack In Syria.
-We have like Lots of Information , that Ukraine lie and lie and lie and then more lies..
-We have LOTS MORE information that the US state department LIES all the time..not only in Ukraine but in
every fucking world conflict that they create.
-Russia is the only one that released empirical information from its radars..and all other nations just limit to say Russia did it.

For anyone following the Ukraine conflict every day all information released will see that is very Obvious that the plane was a staged fabricated event. Yet for Psaki Trolls all they see is ":Russia screw it" and "Rebels did it"
that "Russia lies" and "Rebels lies".. and that stated with a fresh face without providing any information to backup their claims .     All i can say i lost all my respect for them. I can't stand discussions with people that bury
his head in the sand and refuse to see anything , and just claim things for the fun of it. There are lots of trolls online  like that ,and the last thing i expected to see is old time members with some positive past to turn overnight into trolls too.  I will prefer if people cannot discuss or defend its position with information than better keep their "feelings" for themselves ,they mean nothing in a discussion about Ukraine.  

And more on the topic..
The new developments in Ukraine i can notice the following things...

-A major breakup on the unity of Ukraine Government.albeit this is pretty Obvious for any sane person
but psaki trolls.     

Looks like the first signs of a major collapse of Poroshenko government (probably connected with the plane crash)
and or the serious casualties withing the army.  A plane crash.. 300 people die.. all information outside western and trolls propaganda shows Ukraine did it and suddenly major Divisions in Ukraine Governments overnight.

-The Dutch government ,Australia ? and Poland? pushing for helping Ukraine directly with armed "police" . To "protect the crash site" that no one is attacking.

-US Senators and Pentagon pushing NATO to increase the conflict and provide weapons (more help and more heavier and advanced weapons) to Ukraine to wipe the Rebels.

-US political elite hopeless crying for the lack of sanctions to Russia. Their failure to isolate them. Seems
the European Union will not shoot in their own foot after all and isolate Russian trade from europe .

-Latest info shows that Ukraine army is not doing very well .They winning territory but the cost for it is very high.
Looks like defeating the Rebels while still possible will be something historians know as a Pyrrhic victory.


that the consequences for "winning" will be catastrophic for Kiev ,because there will be too many Casualties on their side ,on civilians too and because the cost to their economy and the political disaster . Even if the Rebels are routed to Russia ,the negativity and unarmed resistance against kiev will continue. but in all Ukraine this time..
I really don't think Ukraine could survive for another year as one united government and could avoid a major full scale civil war. This is the reason , why the White House and major NATO allies wants Russia to invade ukraine. because it will help them to unite and .With a little magic from their western media and more false flags . Russia will be blamed for many civilians killed. And this is the reason why i believe Russia needs to avoid invading Ukraine as long as possible.. and just keep things undercover if they have to help.

MY GOSH THE U.S. STATE DEPT. EVIDENCE..........IT'S SOCIAL MEDIA LIKE YOUTUBE AND TWITTER...       

If anyone remembers the Syrian invasion hysteria was revolving around social media hysteria like "GayGirlinDamascus" who was exposed as a complete hoax/fraud, it was not a young gay girl living in Damascus, but a straight middle aged American man living in Scotland, but the media in America was propping up this complete jackass of a fraud as some real authentic thing:








...This is the level of sensationalist yellow Hearst press journalism coming from Western media, meanwhile actual journalists such as Pepe Escobar and Seymour Hearsh exposed lies concerning the Syrian invasion hysteria, to the point that anything involving the U.S. State department claiming to be evidence related to justifying invading Syria can not be trusted. On the same lines the likes of Pepe Escobar has exposed many yellow journalist sensationalist lies concerning Libya, Syria, and Ukraine is no different:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Others/Escobar.html

Intrigado wrote:[quote="flamming_python

Anyway, I think my government is lying, and so too are the rebels whose leaders and principles I've held in high regard. Not sure of it, but I think it's more probable than not.

That's the most curious thing. If your government is lying and the rebels too, they're going to be crucified if they're caught red-handed. Already the Western politicians and media have decided who the main culprit is even if no official results have been released yet. Just imagine what's going to happen if they actually find a real evidence against either Russia or the separatists. If Putin knows there was the separatists' hand or is a possibility to be himself exposed as having the slightest connection with this action, the most logical move would be to find a way to wash his hands of them, tough luck, but he has to save his own country and himself. Instead, he does the opposite, despite of the fact that Russia is permanently threatened with harder and harder sanctions. Why does he do it if he's lying? Does he hope there's no chance for the truth to come out or what?

funny thing to say  for participants  of a bloody civil war...
but no one seems to notice this video..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdqIDYnSNq8

Иностранный метеоспутник зафиксировал момент работы комплекса "Бук" в инфракрасном диапазоне. Бандеровцы попались на этот раз конкретно.
Поля белые, потому что съемка ведется в тепловом диапазоне и, соответственно, темная почва сильнее греется. По этой же причине быстро исчезает остывающий след от ракеты.
Не нужно спорить, чем велась съемка, возможно это спутник дистанционного зондирования земли или высотный самолет-разведчик - это сейчас не важно и рано раскрывать источники. Видео публикуется для того, чтобы те, кто надо, знали - контроль ведется, видеозаписи - есть.

А вот и пошли подтверждения:
Вице-спикер Госдумы РФ Сергей Неверов выдвинул любопытную версию: к крушению Boeing-777 может быть причастен “правая рука” Коломойского, Юрий Береза.
Руководитель спонсируемого господином Коломойским карательного батальона «Днепр» Юрий Береза – профессиональный зенитчик. Совпадение это довольно занятное, учитывая, что у Коломойского, который владеет авиакомпаниями в Днепропетровске, были все возможности, чтобы заставить диспетчеров отклонить малайзийский самолет от курса.

Перезаливайте, потому что оригинал постоянно удаляют, это тоже перезалито.

Yatsenyuk speaking...

 http://www.newsru.com/world/24jul2014/yatsenyuk.html

Some of his parting remarks translated by me:

"У нашего правительства сейчас нет ответа на вопрос, чем платить зарплату, чем завтра утром заправить БТРы, как мне заплатить людям, которые погибли и их семьям. Откуда? С каких денег? Как содержать армию и вооруженные силы, как не деморализовать дух десятков тысяч людей, которые не сидят в этом зале, а которые в траншеях и под пулями сидят. Может, мы о них подумаем?!"

"Our government does not currently have the answer to the question, what to pay the army with, what to fill up the BTRs with tomorrow morning, how am I supposed to pay the people who died and their families? With what money? How to keep supporting the army and the armed forces, how not to demoralize the spirit of tens of thousands of people, that do not sit in this room, but are in the trenches and under fire. Maybe, we should think of them?!"  

the NATO puppet .. last night had to study a lot to learn his poem..

=================================================

Strelkkov... keep sending coffins to Lviv..

...^^^Just as credible as social media evidence...      

magnumcromagnon wrote:

Psaki Trolls -> " I have the feeling that Russia lie and Rebels lie.. It was a putin's missile ."


In more news..
Is amazing how Biased is Moscow TImes..   
Is like the Rusophobia heaven their articles and their editors..
Is like BBC/CNN in Russia.. they now have headlines discussing how the World Cup in 2018 in Russia will look like
with a boycott of the European Union for what they believe are "Russian actions in Ukraine" .

So basically the entire article is
1) Promoting a sabotage of the world cup in 2018 in Russia .
2) And mentioning as a Psaki "Facts" that Russia is responsible for the civil war in Ukraine
  and the Shoot down of the malasyan plane.
 in no place there is any possibility to blame kiev for anything happening in the conflict.  

Russia still has plenty of time to redeem itself in the eyes of Europe and North America. But if it continues on its current path and FIFA — often impervious to the political nuances of host nations of the World Cup — rules that Russia will still host

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/what-russia-s-world-cup-would-look-like-if-hit-by-a-european-boycott/504046.html



As you can see the article central message ,from top to end.. is that Russia needs to change "what they doing in Ukraine" if it wants to have the world cup.  This is a perfect example of garbage media . That blames Russia without ANY evidence of who shoot down the plane.  Is media war.. there is no question what we see.  All American and Zionist media is 24 hours trying to demonize Russia for the illegal war in Ukraine and the malasyan plane.. Anyone with memory of the Syrian civil war ,will notice how it was the same bullshit in that conflict. Russian Government will need to setup media in most in europe to counter the Neocons Propaganda world wide.. because majority of EU and American society do not see alternative media other than what they are told by the mainstream news.

http://ria.ru/world/20140725/1017459906.html

"17 июля командиру 156-го зенитного ракетного полка было предписано провести тренировку боевых расчетов по прикрытию наземной группировки войск в пригороде Донецка — развернуть дивизионы, отработать проводку целей и выполнить весь алгоритм по сопровождению и условному уничтожению целей ракетой ЗРК "Бук-М1", — рассказал собеседник агентства.

По его словам, несмотря на то что командирам батарей были выданы разблокировочные ключи на проведение пусков ракет, реальный запуск ракеты 9М38М1 не был предусмотрен.

"Для участия в тренировке в Днепропетровск с авиабазы Кульбакино 229 бригады тактической авиации в Николаеве были направлены два самолета Су-25. Перед ними была поставлена задача провести воздушную разведку и обозначить контрольные цели в районе сосредоточения группировки АТО к западу от Донецка", — сообщил источник.

"После входа одного из самолетов в зону обнаружения ЗРК "Бук" он был взят на сопровождение боевым расчетом батареи, расположенной у населенного пункта Зарощенское. По всей видимости, по трагической случайности через какое-то время маршруты полетов малайзийского Boeing и Су-25, несмотря на разницу в эшелонах, совпали, слившись на экране в одну крупную точку, что стало фатальным для гражданского борта — в момент схождения целей на одном азимуте система сопровождения автоматически перестраивается на ведение той, которая имеет наибольшую площадь", — отметил он.

При этом источник не смог объяснить причину несанкционированного пуска ракеты. "Этим вопросом занимаются сотрудники СБУ, которые около половины десятого вечера забрали командира батареи с экипажем", — пояснил он, добавив, что не располагает данными о ходе разбирательства.

РИА Новости http://ria.ru/world/20140725/1017459906.html#ixzz38SWkne00

Ria comes with news, that Ukrainian army shot down Malaysian airliner by accident during air defense exercise in Donetsk region, where one of batteries unexpected launch a missile. In exercise for Buk divisions were 2 Su-25 as real targets and 1 Su-25 which was tracked cross its path with airliner. If there is air defense exercise in Donetsk area (maybe for case if Russia attack), than maybe even Ukrainian fighters launch some air to air missiles on target drones.

http://vz.ru/news/2014/7/24/697070.html
thats a nice one..

For the trolls that do not know what a false flag attack is.. and do not believe the US and allies could
blatantly lie to fabricate any tragedy for political gains or promote a war..  Watch the following video.. (2hours long)  Shows the History of False flag attacks.. how they are done.. How US Gov and its major allies have been the source
of major world terror attacks. And how in the same day they plan a major Incident where civilians die ,they also run training exercises to justify their presence near the crime scene.




Jen Psaki Trolls: "Russia Rebel's did it..it ..it was putin's missile.."   

===========================

The glorius ATO managed to down the Moscal super cruser..
(Slava ukraina..)   



an other Super jet .. potensial target of the glorius AA batteries of ATO

It drives me nuts how they use the term West to give the impression that they are many.
Last time I checked all the European puppets where bankrupt, poor, heavily unemployed and occupied with low lifes from far away lands.
Only retards fill affiliation with United States this days.

doesnt look like Mistral .. does it ?

==========================

Slava ATO

The Australian government is now looking to pull a stunt.. and send no less than 100 armed military "police force"
/special forces to the crash zone to "protect it". To protect it from Who? can anyone explain me? Who in hell are they going to fool ? NATO is now seeking to send a trojan Horse of military and spies that will help Kiev to defeat the Rebels.

http://rt.com/news/175444-armed-police-ukraine-mh17/

I really hope Putin don't fall for this very stupid idea.. who are they going to use their weapons?
Against Kiev? NATO have been calling the Rebels terrorist. And supporting 100% the Fascist junta in kiev.
Then one of the australian die and later is used to blame the Rebels.. i really Hope Russia come to their senses
and do not allow such armed operation to enter in Rebels zone.  in fact even disarmed Military is dangerous ,
well trained special forces can disarm the Rebels and take their guns..  or kiev can hide weapons in any place and help the australians to get them.  This is what i hate of NATO , they really believe they are more smarter than anyone and that the world is stupid. Australia should not be trusted at all. Is a fucking trap ,the bastards not happy with the murder of 300 civilians in the malasyan plane ,now wants to use NATO military under the cover of "protecting" the crash site.  Rebels will be forced to send 5 soldiers for every one Australia sends to protect and monitor them . This is wasted resources for the rebels that could be used for combat ,to closely follow every NATO military thug they send. IF Russia allows such Stunt in Rebels zone , it could cause a major problem to rebels security .Cross fingers Russia do not buy is such a trap.

Update..
Look what an Australian have said at RT about the idea of Australian police going to Ukraine..

quote@blkvtr1k
As an Aussie we are nothing like Americans although our government is a NWO puppet. One of our names for Americans is a "seppo" short for septic tank ie full of poo. I really would not want to be one of the federal police going as this is a huge potential false flag when it is so obvious that the NWO / USA is trying to start a war with Russia over the BRICS IMF and dumping the USD look what happened to JFK , Gaddafi, Hussain when they tried to move away from Central banks..

sepheronx wrote:Here is how I am seeing it:

- US claims it has evidence of Russia's involvement, but does not release anything.  All that is being said are so called evidence from twittersphere and youtube.

I agree with most of your post but this is just .... c'mon seriously. This is laughable. Of course Russia is involved in this be it with arms delivery, supplies, surveilance, intelligence etc, mercenaries and volunteers, instructors etc. Assuming it's not the case is stupid. It's there, only the exact degree on how much Russia supports the rebels is unclear. I even believe the separatists have an edge over the Ukrainian military in terms of satelite surveilance and intel from their big brothers. There really is no other explanation on why the seps are able to mount such precise counter attacks and artillery strikes while the Ukranians are constantly running into ambushes.

Sorry but I even believe Russia is directly pointing out positions of Ukr military so that the rebels can strike. They maybe even providing artillery support. It's not like anyone could track back where shells/Grad missiles were shot from.

footage of Ukr military position being shelled. Assume it's Grad missiles because of explosion type

TheGeorgian wrote:

sepheronx wrote:Here is how I am seeing it:

- US claims it has evidence of Russia's involvement, but does not release anything.  All that is being said are so called evidence from twittersphere and youtube.

I agree with most of your post but this is just .... c'mon seriously. This is laughable. Of course Russia is involved in this be it with arms delivery, supplies, surveilance, intelligence etc, mercenaries and volunteers, instructors etc. Assuming it's not the case is stupid. It's there, only the exact degree on how much Russia supports the rebels is unclear. I even believe the separatists have an edge over the Ukrainian military in terms of satelite surveilance and intel from their big brothers. There really is no other explanation on why the seps are able to mount such precise counter attacks and artillery strikes while the Ukranians are constantly running into ambushes.

Sorry but I even believe Russia is directly pointing out positions of Ukr military so that the rebels can strike. They maybe even providing artillery support. It's not like anyone could track back where shells/Grad missiles were shot from.

Its called logistics.. I do believe Russia is supplying logistics to the Rebels (in retaliation with NATO interference in the war with logistics and advisors and private mercenaries black water fighting with kiev ,) because they have a clear view of Ukraine army positions. But from that to Russia turning into monkeys and shooting down a civilian plane by mistake.. thats simply not possible.. IF Rebels had any BUK  ,they will had logistics too and professional operators from Russia ,and they will have all the intelligence in the world to know when the kiev planes are about to takeoff ,from where they will come at what altitude they are what to hit and what not to hit . So the chances Rebels could commit a mistake with a Russian professional operating a BUK missiles is very very low.will have to be a drunk operator. Simply you cannot be certified in Russia to use any Sam defense unless you know how to identify civilian planes in radar. International airliners use special code of being Civilian planes ,that every pilot recognize to avoid any accident and they mistaken for something else. There are even International routes . Highways in the air that only Airlines can use.. Russia could also be providing them with light weapons and not so light.. but the heavy weapons the Rebels have all of them were taken from the ukie army. like Tanks ,Self Propelled artillery ,Cannons etc. Rebels even captured one SU-25 that had an emergency landing from the ukie airforce but for sure it have no weapons after a day of use. So will be useless unless is to escape to Russia.