Azerbaijan vs Armenia [Nagorno-Karabakh conflict]

Not sure what strategic value for Russia here. For 200 plus years Russia has been protecting Christian Armenian's from Turkish, Azerbaijan and Iranian Moslem's. Obviously the Armenians have been corrupted into thinking the West will protect them instead. If they want Russia out then certainly better use can be found for the 9,000 military and border guards plus the 2,000 peacekeepers there now. And yes I realize that about half of those 9,000 are ethnic Armenians serving in the Russian Forces. They can stay or go, their choice.

I am more concern about the fate of Artsakh people. Now they no longer have any effective mean to resist if Azeri government want to execute an ethnic cleansing or forced assimilation. Which is, on my belief, is likely to happen.

Politicians are corrupted, but it is the Artsakh people who took up arms and sacrifice blood and lives. They do not deserve such fate.

There is a source that claims that half the Artsakh rep. garrison of 2500 fighters was killed or wounded in the last 48 of hours of the fighting, with about 300-500 Azeri casualties but that the Azeris had +60k troops engaged. Huge amounts of drones and precision munitions. While Pashinyan was washing his hands of the affair and didn't involve Armenia in any way.

Well, just what is said. If true then it explains why the capitulation was so quick.

Armenia will not be burdened by Nagorno-Karabakh anymore. Pashinyan will face criticism, but hold on. Armenia will join NATO.
And once Azerbaijan 'reintegrates' Nagorno-Karabakh, it will have no more territorial issues and will move to join NATO too. And Turkey will very much encourage it to do so, so as to have another ally within the organization. You better believe it

Master plan by Russia and Iran right here

Turkey doesn´t want NATO (= Americans) there.

And what should Russia and/or Iran do when the Armenians can´t get their ass of the couch?
They "elected" a western puppet and half of the population always blaims Russia for all their own faults.
They let this shit happen time and again so let them have it.

The Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan expressed condolences to Russia in connection with the death of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh. This was stated in a message on the department’s website on Wednesday, September 20.

“We express regret about what happened, we offer deep condolences to the leadership of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, the command of the Russian peacekeeping contingent, the families and loved ones of the fallen servicemen,” the Ministry of Defense wrote.

The message also mentions that in order to investigate the circumstances of what happened on the spot, the investigative authorities of Azerbaijan and Russia are currently working together.

Earlier that day, a car carrying military personnel from the Russian peacekeeping contingent came under fire in the area of ​​the village of Dzhanyatag . The soldiers in the car died. The official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, said that the dead Russian soldiers took the blow to ensure peace in the region.

At the same time, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that since the beginning of hostilities in the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, Russian peacekeepers managed to save 3,154 people , 1,428 of them children. It was also reported that residents of the Mardakert, Martuni and Askeran regions were evacuated, and they were now provided with places to rest and food.

On September 19, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense announced the start of “anti-terrorist measures” of a local nature in Nagorno-Karabakh. The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry stated that the only path to peace in the region is the complete withdrawal of Armenian military personnel from Nagorno-Karabakh.

On September 20, the Nagorno-Karabakh authorities announced a unilateral ceasefire . The parties announced a complete cessation of hostilities from 13:00. The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed this agreement. A meeting of representatives of the local Armenian population and the central authorities of Azerbaijan is planned for September 21.

Relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia deteriorated against the backdrop of disputed ownership of Nagorno-Karabakh, which in 1988 declared secession from the Azerbaijani SSR. During the military conflict of 1992–1994, Baku lost control over the region.

https://iz-ru.translate.goog/1577220/2023-09-20/minoborony-azerbaidzhana-vyrazilo-soboleznovaniia-rf-v-sviazi-s-gibeliu-mirotvortcev?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Well at least they didn't send them out on purpose to die and use the incident to force a ceasefire

Like they did last time by sending a Russian Mi-8 into Azeri airspace

Still the cherry on top though. Accomplish nothing and have a few of your men killed by the aggressor in the situation for your troubles.

The Armenians won't thank Russia for 'saving its people' while the Azeris will still carry on morally supporting the Ukraine.
Fantastic.

Jesus Christ, just cut them loose already

They all want you gone anyway and you don't even get a thank you plus even Armenians are taking orders from Turks now

The Armenians in NK should go to Yerevan and deal with that idiot themselves. He sold them down the river. Now Russia should cut them lose for wasting Russia time with absurd policy decisions

Armenia will not be burdened by Nagorno-Karabakh anymore. Pashinyan will face criticism, but hold on. Armenia will join NATO.
And once Azerbaijan 'reintegrates' Nagorno-Karabakh, it will have no more territorial issues and will move to join NATO too. And Turkey will very much encourage it to do so, so as to have another ally within the organization. You better believe it

Still the cherry on top though. Accomplish nothing and have a few of your men killed by the aggressor in the situation for your troubles.

The Armenians won't thank Russia for 'saving its people' while the Azeris will still carry on morally supporting the Ukraine.
Fantastic.

Lots of criticism about how Russia is handling NK but what are their other options? Is Russia supposed to bomb and kill Azerbaijan's military forces in defense of territory recognized under international law as Azerbaijan?

The alternative to this negotiated ceasefire is literally letting the Azeris genocide what's left of the ethnic armenians in NK that were abandoned by Pashinyan's government, nobody was coming to save them. As for Azerbaijan joining NATO, if you think Iran is going to allow Azerbaijan to join NATO and give the US(and Israel by Proxy) access to the Caspian sea then you haven't been paying attention.

Also, how is Armenia going to join NATO without Turkey's approval? Lots of chickensh*t Doomer squawking without a basic understanding of the geopolitical situation in the Caucasus.

Also, how is Armenia going to join NATO without Turkey's approval? Lots of chickensh*t Doomer squawking without a basic understanding of the geopolitical situation in the Caucasus.

Interesting that Armenia has lost without seeming to fight itself, but it Russia is at fault.

This map shows the region:



So we are talking about Armenia with or without NK having a tenuous corridor to Iran and no connection to Russia or the Caspian Sea might turn to America or HATO.

I would ask what difference that makes to Russia. Azerbaijan occupying or not occupying NK makes little difference to Armenia if they do not claim the land as Armenian or as an independent autonomy. If they wont help then what is Russia to do?

NK and Armenia are already cut off from Russia and the Caspian Sea and Armenia and NK and Azerbaijan joining HATO or Turkey really only changes things for Iran, but I rather suspect the west wants to protect Azerbaijan and destroy Armenia so they can pump oil from the Caspian Sea and Caspian Sea states like the Stans to Turkey and to Europe.... but the conflict in NK and Russian peace keepers and of course Armenia are in their way.

It is actually quite a huge deal for the west... they stopped implementation of the CFE treaty because of Russian troops deployed in South Ossetia and Abkhazia in what they considered to be Georgia, these Russian troops in NK, and of course the Russian troops in Moldova in Transnitria.

Well now it looks like they got NK and probably therefore also Russian peacekeepers will have no real reason to stay, but then Azerbaijan still needs to cross Armenian territory with their pipes... but they already do don't they?

Most of Azerbaijans income comes from oil and gas exports which would make them rather easy to defeat in a open and fair conflict... blow up their oil and gas storage and infrastructure and they will be broke and the west will have no need for them.

Don't really understand what is actually going on because there is obviously a lot going on behind the scenes.

GarryB wrote:NK and Armenia are already cut off from Russia and the Caspian Sea and Armenia and NK and Azerbaijan joining HATO or Turkey really only changes things for Iran, but I rather suspect the west wants to protect Azerbaijan and destroy Armenia so they can pump oil from the Caspian Sea and Caspian Sea states like the Stans to Turkey and to Europe.... but the conflict in NK and Russian peace keepers and of course Armenia are in their way.

Russia holding Armenia in its orbit is pointless even in that case. There is a pipeline from Azerbaijan to Turkey via Georgia already. I think this is just Azerbaijan and the Turks wanting to cut out the middleman.

Other than purely sentimental reasons, the thing is the cold hard calculus for Russia means there is little point in bothering. Particularly when the Armenians won't even defend themselves.

Disagree .Russia , Iran , and China are not doing enough to protect their own land routes , to Europe and each other , that pass through the Caspian and the Caucasus . A land route through the Caucasus to the Black Sea and beyond , will be vital for China and Iran . And for Russia / Iran a land route will be vital too . This means the territorial integrity of Armenian populated areas , that act as a counter- weight to a NATO / American / Turkish expansion , must be protected .

I suggested having a development plan for the region . Or as the R. Azeris  say " a plan of integration . " This should allow for equal access for transportation , across the region , and a non- build-up of armies and foreign forces , and investment in border regions to facilitate a homogeneous population , over time . But why then to disarm the people in NK region ? If all they had was defensive small arms ? And they carried no war into R. Azer region ? If all these arms did , was to make ethnic cleansing difficult and costly ?

Unless the Turks plan ethnic cleansing , and disturbing the territorial integrity of Armenian lands ? So we have to wait on the powerless Armenian population , that can not defend themselves ? Or their sell-out leaders , to take action ? Before we do something ? Well it will be too late by then . Americans have for decades been giving ethnic Armenians easy residence in the USA , ethnic cleansing by immigration means ! And now Russia " helps ? " civilians out of NK too ? Ethnic cleansing by emigration means ?

Azerbaijani servicemen suspected of causing the death of Russian peacekeepers have been detained, and the commander of the unit of the republic's Armed Forces, of which they were part, has been removed from command. This was reported by a source in the Russian military department.

According to the source, the command of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces removed from duties the commander of the republic’s army corps, whose subordinates opened fire on the car of Russian peacekeepers, which led to their death. In addition, the first suspects in the shooting have already been detained, and the investigation continues. As already reported, it is being conducted jointly by Russian and Azerbaijani law enforcement officers and the military.

The commander of the corps of the Azerbaijani armed forces, whose subordinates are guilty of the death of military personnel of the Russian peacekeeping contingent, has been relieved of his duties. The first suspects in the crime were detained - said the source.

Let us recall that a car with Russian servicemen from the peacekeeping contingent was fired upon with small arms in the area of ​​the settlement of Janyatag (Chankatakh) in Nagorno-Karabakh, which led to the death of the peacekeepers. According to various sources, there were four or five dead, one of them was the deputy commander of the Russian peacekeeping contingent, Ivan Kovgan. The Ministry of Defense has not made an official statement.

Today, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, in a telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin, apologized, expressing condolences to the families and friends of the victims. He also offered to provide financial assistance to the families of the dead peacekeepers. Aliyev confirmed that Azerbaijan will conduct the most thorough investigation of the incident, and all those responsible will be punished.

https://topwar-ru.translate.goog/226573-istochnik-soobschil-o-zaderzhanii-pervyh-podozrevaemyh-v-rasstrele-avtomobilja-s-rossijskimi-mirotvorcami-v-nagornom-karabahe.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en

This now killed officer, the deputy commander of the Russian peacekeeping contingent, Ivan Kovgan, was also, by the sound of it.in his normal job deputy commander of submarines of the Northern Fleet. I can imagine that this has upset the Kremlin quite badly.

Along with his men a sad loss.

Four officers and a conscript were killed. Reaction will be same as in 2020 , when Azeri shot down Mi-24. Zilch.

Probably another CIA planned ambush. These things don't just happen. They just don't. And the CIA camps out in all the hot spots of the world to try and see how they can make things worse. See if they can get a shooting war going between all 3 sides.

JohninMK wrote:This now killed officer, the deputy commander of the Russian peacekeeping contingent, Ivan Kovgan, was also, by the sound of it.in his normal job deputy commander of submarines of the Northern Fleet. I can imagine that this has upset the Kremlin quite badly.

Along with his men a sad loss.

caveat emptor wrote:Four officers and a conscript were killed. Reaction will be same as in 2020 , when Azeri shot down Mi-24. Zilch.

It's Russia's own fault just as it was with the Mi-8 loss during the last war, don't get it twisted.
Having men there in a middle of a war with no plan other than to facilitate the surrender of one side. It happens.

Dont think Russia should be feared machiavellian style. Putin is not an Ivan or Stalin. This war has taught me the opposite of what our msm says. Putin's regime has been showing extreme restraint. Also I find cynics and doomers who think they can so better to be tiresome. Also they certainly do not help morale. I have been to forums and seen how poisonous it is. I have also witnessed the fabled Russian liberal, who hates anything Putin does or hates even anything current day Russia does. Both doomers and liberals frequently shit on Russian military kit to the po9nt that they think stuff like the Su-57 is inferior and the program should be canceled even now! Astonishing ignorance and even naivete. With some there is also malevolence. But I also sense an overwhelming inferiority complex. It is amazing to behold. Us Americans do not have this. In fact the opposite. Either an ignorant and deluded kind of superiority that is held not knowing our position.

I have a pretty objective view on things. Not trying to be arrogant or anything. Putin's regime is playing a very long game. We are in a very, very risky place. All of us. Thr whole world. I think Putin's regime is well aware. I think it would be wise for Russians to keep frosty, keep their wits about, and hang their hat on Putin's plans. There is no stable alternative anyways at the moment and frankly Putin is probably up there in the top ten greatest leaders in a century. A rare bird.

I'm not saying to idolize the guy. There are some things in his past that disturb me. That said if I was Russian I would look to the past and present and ask myself if Putin has utterly failed. I think one of his greatest blunders was miscalculation of western resolve, though lately I think he had little choice as he is well aware that the current neocon/neolib cliques are scared of losing power and as a result are extremely dangerous, like a cornered animal. Putin's regime of course would know this. Also Putin felt he had to try and reach a bloodless solution even at great risk and cost. After the initial pell mell mess ups and loss of men and equipment the military reshaped itself in reply and have been doing good so far. With all this ultimately I would keep a skeptical, watchful eye on Putin's regime but I would for now trust it. Again that is if I were a Russian.

If Russia were to have a regime change right now I'd say with 94 percent probability it would be disastrous  Fhe west wants the destabilization of regime change and want ANYPNE other than Putin. Also with these geopolitical games in the Caucasus you got turks and jews and what Russians call the Anglo elite working to control the environment. We have damned white papers from multiple RAND tier think tanks discussing it in detail. Thr turks and jews are an extension of American and Bong foreign policy, though they obviously have ulterior motives and the west knows it. I dont know what is wise to do in this situation. It is veeeery tricky. I'd say Russia is right in waiting and seeing what will go on and Russia should act accordingly along with China.

Sorry for my long diatribe. What do you guys think and feel with all this?

Edit:added a sentence

TMA1 wrote:What do you guys think and feel with all this?

Aside from the fact is one likes VVP or not, there is one thing that is undeniable.
He will be remembered by the history of being paired with Peter the Great and Catherine the Great.
We can already start to call him Vladimir the Great, it will be easier
People have a weak memory and tend to forget the things just a few years behind.
Plus there are new generations born who can't remember the past.
When Putin appeared on the stage back in 1999, Russia was on its knees. The country was on the edge of secessionism. Very close to Brzezinsky strategy of dividing it. Balkanization of Russia was just around the corner, financed and pushed by the very same money.
Now Russia is world's fifth economy, and this thing is hilarious too, as the other three out of four are de facto bankrupted.
Oh yeah, I know that self-proclaimed political strategists, economy Nobel price non-winners just because of the world conspiracy against them, and field marshalls second to Alexander the Great only would have done everything much, much better.
And faster.
And more.
It is easy when one has a full stomach. Easy to forget how the pensioners in Yeltsin Russia were dying of hunger.

caveat emptor wrote:Four officers and a conscript were killed. Reaction will be same as in 2020 , when Azeri shot down Mi-24. Zilch.

The Ukrainians thought the same too when they were shelling Donetsk with near impunity for 9 solid years.

But then Russia finally let loose and now 400k hohols are rotting in the ground to date.

Your Turanic buttbuddies are next. There won't even be a NATO to save them.

flamming_python wrote:It's Russia's own fault just as it was with the Mi-8 loss during the last war, don't get it twisted.
Having men there in a middle of a war with no plan other than to facilitate the surrender of one side. It happens.

I agree with you. This was, before everything, a failure of foreign policy. Where you threw soldiers into dangerous situation, without any strategy or end goal. 
As for this situation or shooting down of Mi-24, I will not say that Azeris don't take any blame, as their army and other government structures, are filled with pan-Turkic assholes. From the picture of the of last "incident", it was obvious that they were killed from short distance and that many bullets were fired, while it is also also obvious that UAZ Patriot was clearly and well marked as Russian.
But, first and foremost this whole affair is  a foreign policy failure.

lyle6 wrote:The Ukrainians thought the same too when they were shelling Donetsk with near impunity for 9 solid years.

But then Russia finally let loose and now 400k hohols are rotting in the ground to date.

Your Turanic buttbuddies are next. There won't even be a NATO to save them.

This mission is done. And, future of Gyumri military base in Armenia is under question. Armenia might leave  CSTO. If they do, base will be closed.

This base represented a perfectly zero value and could be cut off at any single moment.
What are we to whine about now, what is trendy? Don't want to fall behind the X trends, you know....

It sounds like there has been some kind of deal in Artsahk. And Artsahk militia are handing over their weapons to Russian peace keepers.

https://www.rferl.org/a/cease-fire-nagorno-karabakh-ethnic-armenians-azerbaijan/32601754.html

The helicopter that got shot down in 2020 happened exactly the day before a deal was reached too. The CIA knows when a deal is done. And just takes some Russian lives the day before just because. And Putin has seemed to completely defanged the FSB so none of it gets answered