2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

Here we go again...another clash, how serious is it, I don't know  


https://twitter.com/301_AD/status/1310116033831858176?s=19


https://www.facebook.com/Artsakh1.am/videos/329363071472097/

[size=13]Armenian government introduces martial law, announces general mobilization [/size

https://tass.com/world/1205523

This could be provocation by elements, to try get Turkey fight Russia. War by proxy. Or it could turn into one. Why Russia / Iran, not send troops along Armenia / Azer border in Nagorno, a line of separation? Stop troop movement and firing? Stop it forever. Not allow uncle scumbags to take advantage? Turn into zone of peace.

Russian an-124 flew to Armenia probably bringing stuf.

Azerbaijan said lost 1 helicopter. Armenia said they destroyed 4 and 15 UAV.

Armenia said Azerbaijan used Polonez 300km rockets and Smerch MLRS which may lead to Armenia using Iskander.

UAV videos shows vehicles being hit in both sides.

Armenia lost at least 1 Osa AD system Azerbaijan said 12 destroyed but is probably for propaganda.

It seem Turkey flew one TB2 drone inside Armenia and could have used weapons which may lead Armenia to ask help of Russia as per agreement.

It is possible, that both sides turn to be supported against the other, by outside forces. I think Russia and Iran, should not follow the divide and rule politics of NAZTO.  Instead  be a neutral peacemaker. Notice, I did not say peacekeeper. Which is a passive role. I think  both Russia and Iran have a direct stake in peace, in the region, but Turkey and NAZTO, does not. We should each try to and subdue any fire, coming from any side. And keep both sides separated. An answer to a missile fired from one side, is not giving missile to other side, to fire back. The answer is S400 operated by Russia, to shoot down. Nullify both sides attacks. Not escalate.......CIS volunteers can be sent in. Create demarcation line. Nip this in the bud.

Russia is the main weapon supplier of both. I doubt they will send an S400 when both countries have multiple MLRS and drones that can cover the area.

They also have a base in Armenia and some mig-29SMT.

The best would be su-34 for you idea.

But Armenia thanks to its 4 su-30SM and other jets could have total air dominance. They need to be carefull when attacking Azerbaijan AD system however. But if they succeed in destroying them then they will be free to bomb them day and night.

Well either AD is useful or not. If Russian AD will not stop all attacks by Rockets, then neither side AD can be useful either. So what is point in destroying AD. Everyone will still bomb everyone else.

But I don't think AD is useless. What you say, is that Russia will not be neutral. Destroying Azeri AD, as you say, will allow non stop bombing . Well do Azeri have ability for non stop bombing of Armenia?

And if not, then, there will not be a balance of forces. No peace. Armenia advancing. Azeri feeling they need outside help. Oh, ask NAZTO Turkey........ Then Russia at war with NAZTO, with caucuses destroyed, a bridge for Iran and Russia.

Armenian AF is capable enough to launch some stand off missiles at Azerbaijani ad systems. Once they are destroyed, their AF can then do more bombing runs against Azerbaijan ground units. Issue is that Azerbaijan also has an AF.

So both sides may be better off using rockets and other long range strike weapons.

nomadski wrote:
Well  either AD is useful or not. If Russian AD will not stop all attacks by Rockets, then neither side AD can be useful either. So what is point in destroying AD. Everyone will still bomb everyone else.

But I don't think AD is useless. What you say, is that Russia will not be neutral. Destroying Azeri AD, as you say, will allow non stop bombing . Well do Azeri have ability for non stop bombing of Armenia?

And if not, then, there will not be a balance of forces. No peace. Armenia advancing. Azeri feeling they need outside help. Oh, ask NAZTO Turkey........ Then Russia at war with NAZTO, with caucuses destroyed, a bridge for Iran and Russia.

For artillery strikes you need reccon plateform. Azerbaijan uses its drones but if Armenia get total air dominance they will destroy thise drones and their planes will spebd all the time looking for MLRS and artillery and any military vehicles. Everything will be destroy as soon as it is spotted.


@Mike Azerbaijan air force is quite weak and old. Even the AD is not that good. They have a couple of S-300 and buk but that's old and probably maintained by Ukraine. They have 12 ukrainian mig-29 and 12 su-25. The 4 su-30SM will deal with them fairely easily. They can also use kh-31 to destroy Azeri early warning radars.

Armenia is beter armed right now and without external help they would have more chance to win.

Armenian capital is next to Turkish 3rd Army. I mean, walking distance.

An army equal to entire population of Revan is just some yards away capital Revan.

No Armenian defences exist at all, as they would be all vulnerable.

I dont know what Armenia is trying to do but they are active on a soil which even the occupant republic is not recognized by Armenia.

Defending ethnic Armenians, perhaps the most basic instinct known to the animal world. Survival of the species.
And the Turkish Army would have to get through 4,500 Russian defense forces and 4,000 Russian border guards. So consider carefully.

They had "defended" ethnic Armenians by killing each and every Azerbaijani on their way, since Karabakh was surrounded by ethnic Azerbaijani settlements.

Azerbaijan is operating in Azerbaijani soil. This is recognized by all UN countries including Russia. This is not Georgia shelling Abkhazia. Because Russia considers Abkhazia as a sovereign state. But as for Azerbaijani territory, Russia does not recognize any sovereign states within Azerbaijan.

So, if Russians get killed in Azerbaijan, Russia can not diplomatically ask a compensation as their political stance is at odds with what is on the ground.

AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:They had "defended" ethnic Armenians by killing each and every Azerbaijani on their way, since Karabakh was surrounded by ethnic Azerbaijani settlements.

Azerbaijan is operating in Azerbaijani soil. This is recognized by all UN countries including Russia. This is not Georgia shelling Abkhazia. Because Russia considers Abkhazia as a sovereign state. But as for Azerbaijani territory, Russia does not recognize any sovereign states within Azerbaijan.

So, if Russians get killed in Azerbaijan, Russia can not diplomatically ask a compensation as their political stance is at odds with what is on the ground.

And why then is Turkey in Cyprus?

franco wrote:

AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:They had "defended" ethnic Armenians by killing each and every Azerbaijani on their way, since Karabakh was surrounded by ethnic Azerbaijani settlements.

Azerbaijan is operating in Azerbaijani soil. This is recognized by all UN countries including Russia. This is not Georgia shelling Abkhazia. Because Russia considers Abkhazia as a sovereign state. But as for Azerbaijani territory, Russia does not recognize any sovereign states within Azerbaijan.

So, if Russians get killed in Azerbaijan, Russia can not diplomatically ask a compensation as their political stance is at odds with what is on the ground.

And why then is Turkey in Cyprus?

As per guarantorship.

Isos wrote:

nomadski wrote:
Well  either AD is useful or not. If Russian AD will not stop all attacks by Rockets, then neither side AD can be useful either. So what is point in destroying AD. Everyone will still bomb everyone else.

But I don't think AD is useless. What you say, is that Russia will not be neutral. Destroying Azeri AD, as you say, will allow non stop bombing . Well do Azeri have ability for non stop bombing of Armenia?

And if not, then, there will not be a balance of forces. No peace. Armenia advancing. Azeri feeling they need outside help. Oh, ask NAZTO Turkey........ Then Russia at war with NAZTO, with caucuses destroyed, a bridge for Iran and Russia.

For artillery strikes you need reccon plateform. Azerbaijan uses its drones but if Armenia get total air dominance they will destroy thise drones and their planes will spebd all the time looking for MLRS and artillery and any military vehicles. Everything will be destroy as soon as it is spotted.


@Mike Azerbaijan air force is quite weak and old. Even the AD is not that good. They have a couple of S-300 and buk but that's old and probably maintained by Ukraine. They have 12 ukrainian mig-29 and 12 su-25. The 4 su-30SM will deal with them fairely easily. They can also use kh-31 to destroy Azeri early warning radars.

Armenia is beter armed right now and without external help they would have more chance to win.

Fair point.

If they manage to destroy most of Azerbaijan's Airforce and air defense systems, then I think Azerbaijan will be forced to pull back it's aggression.

Turkey is the main problem.

The Armenians have rights in karabag. So do Azeri. There are about 40 to 50 thousand Azeri refugees, out of karabag. The solution is not difficult. Divide karabag, according to relative size of populations, pre - war.  Into contiguous regions, bordering each territory. Until a solution is found, the cause of conflict, temporary advances or retreats, will not solve the problem.

In Syria, the Russians, for whatever reason, adopted a total defensive policy, as regards Israeli attacks. It seems to work. At least in the short to medium term. At least for Russia. Why not adopt the same policy here?  Nullify any offensive by the Azeri side. And not allowing Armenia to launch offensives either.  Iranians can help here too. Best with agreements. Station peacekeepers along line of contact.

Allowing one side, an advantage, will not lead to peace. But only prolong the war. Leaving the sides alone in this, may not work either. As it has not worked so far. Active diplomatic, and peacemaking effort is needed. But if I am wrong, the Russians can go ahead and bomb day and night. See what happens. The Turks, will love this move. Become real problems.

Azerbaijan is open to land swap but it is Armenian side that is reluctant.

Ağdam, Cebrail, Fuzuli, all Azerbaijani settlements prewar. No one lives in these regions as of now, as their residents are either killed or forced to leave.

If Armenia offers to give up these regions for recognition of Armenian sovereignty in ethnically Armenian lands prewar in return, then things can be spoken.

But Armenia considers entire occupation zone to be Armenian, which is false.

What I learned about this conflict. Standoff ammunition, long range artillery are the king and the rest are the targets. Barely any direct engagement.. I guess it's terrifying for ground troops