2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

nomadski wrote:It does not matter, who started it. There is an unresolved situation. Karabag, is not the only area that Armenia has taken from Azeri control. They made advances elsewhere too.  Iran said, they will not tolerate war in region. Russia  needs to  stop giving support to Armenia, when it advances against Azeris. Iran may have to come in and clean the entire area. Push back invading Armenians. Turks. And ISIS scumbags. Azerbaijan is not Russian territory.  And Russia clearly and unfairly favours Armenia expansion. Iran will not be happy with that. Since Azeris are essentially Iranian, not Turks. So save your 1000 lbs bombs.........

This whole situation is related to geopolitics, pipeline politics and NATO expansion

In the late 80s/early 90s Armenian nationalism peaked. Probably they would have gone over to NATO long ago but see this situation happened in Nagorno-Karabakh. Which I'm not saying was Moscow's doing in and of itself. Armenians there were always pretty miserable due to Azeri rule in the Soviet era that treated them as 2nd class citizens; and the Armenian national intelligencia started organizing all these marches in the region in the late 80s all by itself; the same intelligencia was fiercely anti-Soviet and wanted independence from the USSR, and in short order got it.

The Azeris never had any problems being part of the USSR and weren't particularly nationalist; only in the early 90s due to the whole Nagorny-Karabakh situation as well as Moscow's attempts to reassert control in Baku which led to innocents dying - pushed the country towards an anti-Russian position, but even then not for long.

NATO (Turkey) has been sowing instability and trying to wrest the whole region from Russian influence for a while. The covert support for Chechen rebels, the revolution in Georgia and all sorts of promises to the Armenians. The big prize remains Azerbaijan; as that means instant access to Central Asia and all their oil and gas fields - which are at the moment selling to Russia for quite below market value.

The trouble for Turkey, is that there is no Turkic road to Azerbaijan so to speak. Only through Georgia - but the Georgians, regardless of their differences with Russia over Abkhazia and S. Ossetia, are fickle Turkophobes and always have been. There is the Azeri exclave of Nakhivchan, which is linked to Turkey, but not linked to Azerbaijan.
The newly formed 'Turkic Council' is also a factor, I remember in an interview one of their representatives said, that Armenia's southern territories were granted to it by Stalin and that it should hand them over to Azerbaijan. Which would conveniently link Turkey, Azerbaijan and the whole Caspian region. But I don't know how much of a factor this organization is, whether the plan really is to take a bit of Armenia proper, and how seriously the Azeris are into this stuff. My understanding is not much, Azeris only really care about getting Nagorny-Karabakh and the other territories back, and otherwise prioritize ties with Moscow.

If Russia gives Armenia up by refusing to aid it in Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia will quickly go over to NATO. This is not a situation that Iran will tolerate either, FYI. Neither any sort of land-swap whereby Armenia gives up its southern territory in exchange for Nagorny-Karabakh; as that would immediately cut off Iran from Armenia, guarantee Armenia going over to NATO, and in fact encircle Iran with NATO.
Make no mistake, Iran is covertly favouring Armenia as well in this stand-off. Especially given Azeri nationalism in north Iran and Azerbaijan's co-operation with Israel

On the whole this whole thing is a supreme shitshow and I don't even know how it's possible to resolve it. Only if Turkey somehow becomes a Russian ally and leaves NATO; but for that Russia's politics would have to change as well. I doubt Russia would be interested in Turkish influence over Central Asia and its own Turkic peoples - so probably scratch this option as well.

AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:Peace had always been the best option no doubt. If a land swap to be negotiated, this requires some action from both sides. A trade and energy route between Kars-Revan-Baku is profitable for every parties, with possible exception of Russia, as sustained but slow paced conflict benefits Russia making combatants dependent.

I have no time for Russian petty imperialism either and if a pipeline that excludes it is required for peace then I'm all for it.

But I think the question is greater and concerns NATO supporting future seperatism in Russia once it establishes itself in Central Asia, and so on. There is also Iran to consider.

Really the option in the 90s should have been taken. Not sure if it's too late now.

Regular wrote:What I learned about this conflict. Standoff ammunition, long range artillery are the king and the rest are the targets. Barely any direct engagement.. I guess it's terrifying for ground troops

PapaDragon wrote:
Azeris are making good use of Turkish and Israeli loitering munitions and UAVs

Russia is making progress here but they are definitely late in the game so they don't have much to offer to Armenia in this department

Fortunately they did supply them with some Iskanders (25) so if needed they can put some hurt on Azeri vital points

Still there is definitely a hole in the Russian inventory, they better get on this already

The Armenians are holding out on the Azeris - they haven't even tapped into the good sh*t like their Buk-M1-2 and Tor-M2MK batteries both of which are busy defending the main strategic zones of Armenia. Buk batteries, specifically have been the bane of Turkish drone operations whenever they are redeployed to their operating sector in Syria while Tor batteries are responsible for no-selling routine micro-UAS swarm attacks on Russian airbases for years now. They are also reserving the right to call upon their Russian allies for the moment so the situation can and will change drastically in the next few days depending on the Armenian leadership's decision.

PapaDragon wrote:
I read that this latest flare up is actually result of oil price crash which rattled Azeri economy and political system as a result

While Russia was able to adapt (and improve it's standing) in this new situation other nations much more reliant on petroleum sales have been living a nightmare

Azerbaijan doesn't have other industries like Russia or massive pile of cash like Saudi Arabia so this seems to be Hail Mary pass in order to ride out the storm ("bright" idea courtesy of Sultan Erdogan himself most likely)

But they are much more vulnerable than they seem, one missile (Armenian or otherwise) in any of their oil facilities and they will be cooked financially (and politically)

They have no income apart from energy rents; stick a fork in it - they're done.

Maximmmm wrote:

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:

The only solution to avoid war indefinitely would be that both of them (or at least Azerbaijan) would return being part of the Russian state as it was during the russian empire, and partially also during the Soviet times, but I doubt this would be feasible,  unless Turkey and Azerbaijan do not screw up terribly.  This would have the added benefit of giving a land connection between Russia and Iran.

Another interesting idea could have been making Azerbaijan a joint Russian Iranian protectorate,  with Russia managing the northern part country including Baku and up to a few tens km south of it, and Iran managing the south of Azerbaijan....

I think anybody you talk to in private would agree that being reabsorbed into a larger nation that guarantees the security of all ethnicities is the only bloodless way out of the conflict, but Russia has neither the political will nor the military heft (as we would have to confront Turkey directly in that case) to do this. And the countries involved will never vote themselves out of existence.

I think there is one major argument for getting involved militarily on the Armenian side: it is the only place we can expand our foothold in the caucasus.
- Georgia is out of the question, that ship has sailed.
- The azeris train their troops in Turkey and Ukraine and are effectively a turkish protectorate, so there's very little chance of suddenly swinging them 100% into the other direction.

That leaves the Armenians, they're part of an alliance (a useless one, but hey what can you do), we already have military bases, we control their rail system and we have cultural ties as the representatives of a christian-led civilization.
Right now both sides think we're helping the other side and are responsible for prolonging the conflict, so we don't necessarily lose out diplomatically either.

The two major problems would be dealing with Iran and Turkey.
-Iran is reasonable, albeit fickle. I'm sure we could negotiate something reasonable with them to gain access to their Armenian border.
-Turkey is a problem but they've shown that the only time they come to the table is if their adventuring troops come back in body bags. That means any current stance that tries to solve things via negotiation is useless.

I understand that the Kremlin may prefer to help Armenia in private, with arms shipments and maybe some "wagners" of our own, but the problem is that we lose out on the political obligations and public support that we would get from Armenia if we intervened openly.
Putin's kremlin really hates intervention though, it took us 4 years and the near collapse of the Syrian state to get involved there and Crimea only happened because it was one of the few red lines that we're actually serious about. The way Moscow shut down the Donbass is still a crime in my books. So I still predict a tactical victory for the azeri/turk side here.

lol, Iran's borders with Armenia are wide open; they've been serving as their lifeline ever since independence. And w/o their co-operation we wouldn't have been able to supply anything to Armenia since the colour revolution in Georgia in 2003.

And Iran is very discreet, about it's backing of Armenia, but nevertheless it sometimes gets out into the open

Like these vids filmed yesterday, a Russian convoy passing into Armenia through Iran.

https://twitter.com/ProfBShaffer/status/1310309227785719808
https://twitter.com/SdFPspNu7efbK72/status/1310497815802544128

Hmm, smells like Pantsirs.
Question is - to shore up the Russian base and borderguards on Armenia's border with Turkey, or is Russia bold enough to supply these Pantsirs to the Armenians directly?

As for what you predict.
No, this will end with Erdogan waiting under the Catherine the Great statue again for a meeting with Putin. They guy is beyond retarded and this stunt is the most absurd gamble yet. He's getting desperate.

Maximmmm wrote:

flamming_python wrote:
lol, Iran's borders with Armenia are wide open; they've been serving as their lifeline ever since independence. And w/o their co-operation we wouldn't have been able to supply anything to Armenia since the colour revolution in Georgia in 2003.

And Iran is very discreet, about it's backing of Armenia, but nevertheless it sometimes gets out into the open

Like these vids filmed yesterday, a Russian convoy passing into Armenia through Iran.

https://twitter.com/ProfBShaffer/status/1310309227785719808
https://twitter.com/SdFPspNu7efbK72/status/1310497815802544128

Hmm, smells like Pantsirs.
Question is - to shore up the Russian base and borderguards on Armenia's border with Turkey, or is Russia bold enough to supply these Pantsirs to the Armenians directly?

As for what you predict.
No, this will end with Erdogan waiting under the Catherine the Great statue again for a meeting with Putin. They guy is beyond retarded and this stunt is the most absurd gamble yet. He's getting desperate.

Yes of course, that's also what I'm referring to, but I expect that if we chose to intervene openly in exchange for significant political concessions from Armenia, we'd need to renegotiate with Iran. At the end of the day they're not an ally, they're a fair-weather friend and somebody we can make a deal with. They would not be too jazzed to see Russian influence and control over Armenia shoot up.  
It's the same thing we saw in Syria, it took a few rounds of high-level negotiations to smooth out our cooperation.

As for the prediction, yeah maybe, but again today we see the Kremlin calling for talks and de-escalation from both sides. So who knows, time will tell. If you were in the neighborhood, I'd bet you a beer.

They're an ally and have been for some time.

After the US dumped the Kurds last September, they passed over to be Moscow's pawns - albeit they have some trouble realizing it for now.

In exchange the US reaffirmed Turkey's loyalty.
Plan neo-Ottomanism has suffered a defeat, now the plan is pan-Turkism, with an eye to getting through to Central Asia and its energy resources, and then invoking seperatism in Russia, China and Iran.

Well it's not exactly a great plan as the US and EU can't be too open about things and have to pretend to still be rooting for the Armenians and democracy (but then again Russia and Iran have the same problem with their Turkic populations; which are reasonably loyal to them but still it's better not to kick up a fuss), while having to deal with the opposition of Russia, China and Iran to said plan; with Iran being more than a match for any Azerbaijan or Central Asian country, and Russia/China easily outmatching Turkey and the smithering of covert EU/US support that can get through. Not to mention the economics of things; Turkey is a good-sized regional economy but Azerbaijan is entirely dependent on oil, while Central Asia is entirely dependent on trade with Russia and China.

The Arabs aren't too exhilarated with Turkish meddling either in their own countries. Neither the Greeks, albeit the EU/US might now try to force the Greeks and Turks to make up. Bulgaria won't be enthusiastic about the idea either.

As for what the Kremlin is calling for, what Tehran is calling for, what Brussels is calling for, what Washington is calling for - these are just words. They don't reflect the situation in actuality. The only ones who are being honest about their support are funnily enough Turkey.
It's enough to note that Russian MiG-29s overflew Yerevan just yesterday
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1310538359958376449

Iran has just today shot down an Azeri or Turkish drone which intruded into its airspace.
https://twitter.com/HAbdolhossein/status/1310903289719001089
This is a message of course. Iran has no patience with Erdogan's retarded plan and for being a NATO tool. Were Iran a neutral country it would probably forgo the interception of a drone that likely clipped its airspace accidentally.

The Azeris have at their side Turkish intelligence and officers, Syrian terrorists, possibly some pan-Turkic barely literates from Central Asia later on, and maybe some Pakistani Islamists if they're 'lucky'.
On the minus side they'll have to forgo Shamil Basayev and his merry band this time round. But hey, maybe some Ukronazi mercenary pilots will make up for it.

As for the Armenians; for now just their huge incoming diaspora, as well as Russian supplies & intelligence, but no doubt Wagner as well if things continue to escelate. I wonder if the Revolutionary Guard/Hezbollah crew turn up. Well really the possibilities are now endless; maybe the YPG, maybe some Orthodox crew mercs (Greece/Serbia/etc...).
Georgia hasn't been allowing its own Armenians to cross the border into Armenia and volunteer; they were clashing with Georgian border guards last night. Also Georgia denied Russia airspace access to supply Armenia at US request yesterday.
Georgia is an interesting country to watch. Which will win out, their beef with Russia or their Turkophobia and Islamophobia?

Maximmmm wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

They're an ally and have been for some time.

After the US dumped the Kurds last September, they passed over to be Moscow's pawns - albeit they have some trouble realizing it for now.

In exchange the US reaffirmed Turkey's loyalty.
Plan neo-Ottomanism has suffered a defeat, now the plan is pan-Turkism, with an eye to getting through to Central Asia and its energy resources, and then invoking seperatism in Russia, China and Iran.

Well it's not exactly a great plan as the US and EU can't be too open about things and have to pretend to still be rooting for the Armenians and democracy (but then again Russia and Iran have the same problem with their Turkic populations; which are reasonably loyal to them but still it's better not to kick up a fuss), while having to deal with the opposition of Russia, China and Iran to said plan; with Iran being more than a match for any Azerbaijan or Central Asian country, and Russia/China easily outmatching Turkey and the smithering of covert EU/US support that can get through. Not to mention the economics of things; Turkey is a good-sized regional economy but Azerbaijan is entirely dependent on oil, while Central Asia is entirely dependent on trade with Russia and China.

The Arabs aren't too exhilarated with Turkish meddling either in their own countries. Neither the Greeks, albeit the EU/US might now try to force the Greeks and Turks to make up. Bulgaria won't be enthusiastic about the idea either.

As for what the Kremlin is calling for, what Tehran is calling for, what Brussels is calling for, what Washington is calling for - these are just words. They don't reflect the situation in actuality. The only ones who are being honest about their support are funnily enough Turkey.
It's enough to note that Russian MiG-29s overflew Yerevan just yesterday
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1310538359958376449

Iran has just today shot down an Azeri or Turkish drone which intruded into its airspace.
https://twitter.com/HAbdolhossein/status/1310903289719001089
This is a message of course. Iran has no patience with Erdogan's retarded plan and for being a NATO tool. Were Iran a neutral country it would probably forgo the interception of a drone that likely clipped its airspace accidentally.

The Azeris have at their side Turkish intelligence and officers, Syrian terrorists, possibly some pan-Turkic barely literates from Central Asia later on, and maybe some Pakistani Islamists.
On the minus side they'll have to forgo Shamil Basayev and his merry band this time round. But hey, maybe some Ukronazi mercenary pilots will make up for it.

As for the Armenians; for now just their huge incoming diaspora, as well as Russian supplies & intelligence, but no doubt Wagner as well if things continue to escelate. I wonder if the Revolutionary Guard/Hezbollah crew turn up. Well really the possibilities are now endless; maybe the YPG, maybe some Orthodox crew mercs (Greece/Serbia/etc...).
Georgia hasn't been allowing its own Armenians to cross the border into Armenia and volunteer; they were clashing with Georgian border guards last night. Also Georgia denied Russia airspace access to supply Armenia at US request yesterday.
Georgia is an interesting country to watch. Which will win out, their beef with Russia or their Turkophobia and Islamophobia?

I think you're over-estimating Iran here. Yes they're much better off collaborating with us on these issues, but that doesn't mean there isn't internal opposition to letting our influence grow too much in their border regions. We're just lucky that the west is retarded enough to keep piling on sanctions and driving us together, just like with Belarus now.
But I think we both agree on the fundamental thing, that cooperation with Iran will continue in this situation.

Jets over Armenia is nothing new, we've had an airbase there for years and the Migs are local. If we saw Su-35's, then that would actually mean that we're enhancing the local military presence.

Georgia is a puppet state at this point, Jens just came out again today saying Georgia needs to focus on joining Nato, I don't expect anything from them.

Next few days will be interesting for sure.

Georgia is a puppet but they're paranoid about Turkish influence as all hell, all the Turks coming to Georgia and getting citizenship there, particularly in Adjaria which has a large population of Georgian muslims dating back from the times under the Ottomans.
Georgia is a fairly feeble country economically and with constant destabilization and wrests of political influences. It's not unfeasible that unrest there should begin were this pan-Turkic brotherhood to start forming up. And this is a key issue because Georgia is the only land and pipeline route for Turkey to Azerbaijan at present time.
Without it Turkey can still get there by air; over Pakistan, Afghanistan, into Central Asia, over the Caspian and into Azerbaijan. But it's a major pain and large-scale logistics would be hard to organize, not to mention the pipeline would be subject to Georgian bargaining.