2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

The land swap idea, only concerns the displaced refugees. Of course it can work. Land exchanged in proportion to size of displaced persons. But for the sake of peace a road plan can be agreed also. One along Azeri / Georgian border, linking Russia to Armenia from North. The other road from Azerbaijan along Azeri / Iranian border, south through Nakichevan to Turkey. For transit of civilian goods.

George1 wrote:Russia should not accept this

Attack on Azerbaijan equal to attack on Turkey — senior Ankara official

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said earlier in the day that his country is ready to support Azerbaijan in the conflict both at the negotiating table and on the battlefield

https://tass.com/world/1206409

Turkey's ruling regime is so childish. All these ex-USSR states are demented. Like Ukraine and Georgia we have Azerbaijan acting like the gift of land and creative borders
made by Trotsky and Lenin are some thousands of years old ancestral entitlement. BS borders have been one of the primary sources of bloodshed over the last 100+ years.
Be it by western imperialists in the Middle East and Africa or Soviets in the USSR. Borders were created that ignored local ethnic distributions and were capricious self
interested concoctions. Like Kuwait and Iraq. Kuwait is a fiction created by the British to control Iraq's access to the seas.

Since none of the warring factions want to deal with reality a controlled ethnic redistribution is needed to be imposed by force. Nagorno-Karabakh needs to be
merged with Armenia by shifting to be adjacent to Armenia's current border. This means both Azeris and Armenians will have to move. And Azerbaijan has no
case in claiming that this land belongs to it. Even if they appeal to some "history" from 1500 years ago. Back then there were no such thing as nations with
borders. The closest came empires but they territory was nebulous as well. Exact borders and national identity arose in most of the world through imperialist
European imposition. For most of history we had ethnic groups which were either fully mobile or quasi-mobile.

Exceptions would be internal borders in places Like China and India but they are hardly globally common. And there was lots of blood and strife in those countries that gave them
their internal borders.

Karl Haushofer wrote:Russia will do nothing.

Famous last words

Karl Haushofer wrote:Russia will do nothing.

You never post here until some situation you can spin as Russia letting someone down.

Actually if Russia does nothing then the scenario of WWI will be avoided. Alliance entanglements are what transformed some local conflict
into a world war. Russia does not exist to fight wars for other countries.

If Turkey acts alone to help the Azeris, then an international coalition can be assembled to suppress such meddling. If Russia gets involved
together with Turkey then you have the alignment of two camps forming and a potentially bigger war.

The Ottoman wrote:Turkey and Russia benefits both from this war. Armenia and Azerbaijan need new weapons. This fighting will hold on max a week and the status quo wil remain.

A lot of dollars for the Turkish Republic and the Russian Federation. They need this very hard in these times.

Arms sales to Armenia and Azerbaijan are chump change for the Russians. I suspect that Azeri sales subsidize Armenia's heavily discounted weapons sales indirectly anyways (modern missile and air defense batteries are ridiculously expensive for the economy of Armenia), so there's really not much gain in the entire venture. On the other hand the increased readiness posture which includes massive preparations for cross border ops exercises do cost a pretty penny similar to actual warfare itself, minus the loss in manpower, and that is money that could be used for better things than signaling.

Since no agreement is possible right now. And two sides are incapable, even when ceasefire in force, to reach mutual beneficial agreement. Then the realistic  choices for  Russia / Iran are ,  to enforce as far as possible, a freezing of all offensive actions by Armenia and Azeri side. And maintain as far as possible a static situation, as regards ground forces, based on current positions, on the line of contact. No forceful territorial conquest can be allowed, even if it involves the recapture of previous lost territory, since forceful recapture is not guaranteed to stop. And is not the answer to the problem either. Since return to previous geography of separate mixed populations, was not practical. Only a rational separation by agreement, of homogenous populations and territory, can work.

Stealthflanker wrote:So the Azeri apparently engages the Armenian S-300.

http://gurkhan.blogspot.com/2020/09/300.html#more

Rather ugly Event.

It raises question on where is the cover for the S-300's and more importantly why it's still there in the first place for the Loitering munitions to loiter around.  The Azeri claimed to use Harop which is an anti radiation loitering munition. This can loiter for a long time and home in to radar emission. They are slow but this makes them ideal as radar may have difficulty in picking it (It in fact might filter it out as it could fly as slow as a bird)  It's not just RCS but also that a radar have a rejection notch for clutter, which set into a speed where typical object such as birds are rejected.  The drone can utilize it thus evades detection.

That very same Harop had much better video clarity on other strikes. I wouldn't put much stock in that footage given ongoing IOPs.

Pashinyan stated Armenia's desire to build new relations with Russia

Armenia wants to build qualitatively new relations with Russia. This was stated by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at a meeting with journalists in Yerevan on Wednesday, September 30.
The war broke out: what and who aggravates the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh?
Yerevan and Baku reject possibility of negotiations until ceasefire

"Nothing has happened in the relations between Armenia and Russia (after the change of power in Armenia in 2018 - Ed.) and there are no nuances that were not present in our relations, for example four or seven years ago. But relations between any countries are dynamic," "Interfax" quotes him.

According to him, Armenia's goal in its relations with Russia is "building relations of a new level and quality".

"I am sure that we are going along this path. It may not be a very iridescent path, but I don't think the word "iridescent" is very appropriate especially in the geopolitical context," the premier added.

On the eve, Russian President Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The leaders discussed the aggravation of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh. During the conversation, Putin expressed concern over the ongoing fighting in the region.

Another aggravation of the situation in the unrecognized Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh occurred on September 27. Armenia and Azerbaijan accused each other of shelling and death among military and peaceful population.

According to the latest data voiced by Armenian Defense Ministry representative Artsrun Hovhannisyan, 137 armored vehicles have been destroyed in Nagorno-Karabakh since the beginning of the conflict escalation, 72 drones, seven helicopters and one Azerbaijani aircraft have been shot down.

It was noted in Baku that during the battles about 130 armored vehicles, more than 200 artillery, missile launchers, mortars and about 25 enemy air defense systems were destroyed.

Relations between Yerevan and Baku remain tense because of the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh's ownership. The region, located in the eastern part of the Armenian Highland, announced its withdrawal from the Azerbaijani SSR in 1988. However, Baku considers the territory its own.

https://iz.ru/1067345/2020-09-30/pashinian-zaiavil-o-zhelanii-armenii-postroit-novye-otnosheniia-s-rossiei
So much for multivector policies. First Belarus, now Armenia. Who's next?