2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

lyle6 wrote:
That very same Harop had much better video clarity on other strikes. I wouldn't put much stock in that footage given ongoing IOPs.

Well the Harop itself would perish on impact. That footage should be from another UAV, sent in for battle damage assessment.

Stealthflanker wrote:So the Azeri apparently engages the Armenian S-300.

http://gurkhan.blogspot.com/2020/09/300.html#more

Rather ugly Event.

It raises question on where is the cover for the S-300's and more importantly why it's still there in the first place for the Loitering munitions to loiter around.  The Azeri claimed to use Harop which is an anti radiation loitering munition. This can loiter for a long time and home in to radar emission. They are slow but this makes them ideal as radar may have difficulty in picking it (It in fact might filter it out as it could fly as slow as a bird)  It's not just RCS but also that a radar have a rejection notch for clutter, which set into a speed where typical object such as birds are rejected.  The drone can utilize it thus evades detection.

It's rather interesting if true, really goes to show how much a large fleet of cheap drones changes the game nowadays. Also argues in favor of what we have set up in Hmeymim with layers of AA operated from a single control center as a minimum. We've been pretty effective there at knocking out drone waves, so we know it can be done.

https://iz.ru/1067345/2020-09-30/pashinian-zaiavil-o-zhelanii-armenii-postroit-novye-otnosheniia-s-rossiei
So much for multivector policies. First Belarus, now Armenia. Who's next?

Nothing to help remind leaders of what real tangible support is like a gun to the face. Where is your Europe now Pasha?

Armenia versus Azerbaijan: balance of forces

The events of recent days in Nagorno-Karabakh may have the most serious consequences. The observed limited conflict in the shortest possible time can develop into a full-scale war, incl. with the involvement of third countries. Azerbaijan and Armenia are already preparing for more active actions, carrying out mobilization and other measures. It is necessary to consider the strength and capabilities of the participants in a possible war.

General issues

The National Army of Azerbaijan (NAA) is quite large and one of the strongest in the region. So, the Global Firepower rating puts it in 64th place in the world - significantly higher than its likely opponents. According to The Military Balance 2020, the total number of the NAA reaches almost 67 thousand people, the bulk of whom serve in the ground forces. There is a reserve of up to 300 thousand people. The NAA has ground forces, air force and naval forces, but the latter can not be considered in the context of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

The Armed Forces of Armenia are less numerous, and their potential is estimated lower. TMB reports about 45 thousand troops and 210 thousand reserve. Global Firepower ranks Armenia 111th out of 138 in the world. Due to its geographical location, the Armenian army includes only ground forces, air forces and air defense forces.

It is also necessary to consider the defense potential of the unrecognized NKR, which actively cooperates with Armenia. Up to 20 thousand people serve in the NKR Defense Army. with a reserve of up to 90-100 thousand. According to known data, military construction in the republic is carried out with the direct support of Yerevan. Assistance is provided with the solution of organizational issues, with the training of personnel, with equipment, etc. The specificity of the situation is such that in a number of situations it is impossible to determine which part of the military potential belongs directly to the NKR, and which is provided by friendly Armenia.

It should be noted that the numerical indicators of the three armies are now quite difficult to track. The reference books provide data as of the beginning of the year, but in recent days, the parties to the conflict have suffered significant losses. At the same time, there is still no exact data on the killed soldiers and destroyed equipment.

Land forces of Azerbaijan

The ground forces of Azerbaijan include 5 corps, between which 23 motorized rifle brigades are distributed. In the latter, there are infantry and tank battalions, as well as support units. There are two separate artillery brigades equipped with barrel and rocket systems, an engineering brigade, and several other formations.
According to TMB, at the beginning of this year, the NAA had 439 tanks, the basis of this grouping were T-72 of various modifications (more than 240 units) and T-90S (100 units). Motorized infantry uses more than 780 armored vehicles of various types. There are both old samples of Soviet production and new imported equipment. To combat enemy tanks, 10 self-propelled ATGM "Chrysanthemum" are intended; there is a large number of portable ATGM systems.
NAA has a fairly high rocket and artillery potential. There are 12 self-propelled guns 2S7 "Pion" with 203-mm guns. Also in operation there are more than 35 self-propelled guns of 152 or 155 mm of several types. The most massive self-propelled gun among the troops is the 2S1 "Carnation" - 44 units. There are 36 CJSC "Nona" and "Vienna". The towed artillery includes more than 200 units. armament with caliber up to 152 mm. In rocket artillery there are almost 150 units. MLRS of different types. There are both old Soviet "Grads" of 122 mm caliber, as well as modern 300-mm systems of foreign production.
Azerbaijan is armed with operational-tactical missile systems. These are four "Tochka-U" and two LORA products made in Israel. With their help, it is possible to defeat targets at a great depth of defense.
Military air defense as part of the NAA is being built on the basis of Soviet and Russian-made complexes, mainly of old types. There are samples of different classes, from portable to medium-range air defense systems. Also in service are the ZU-23-2 / 4 towed and self-propelled installations.

Armenian army

The ground forces of Armenia have 5 combined arms corps, including infantry, tank, artillery, anti-aircraft and other units. There are also two separate artillery brigades, an engineer regiment, etc.
The main striking force of the army is tank units, which have more than 100 armored vehicles of several types. This is mainly T-72A / B. The fleet of infantry armored vehicles includes 360 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles of Soviet production. There is an unknown number of MT-LB transporters, BRDM-2 armored vehicles, engineering vehicles of several types, etc. More than 20 self-propelled ATGMs "Kornet", "Konkurs" and "Shturm" are used.
Self-propelled barrel artillery includes approx. 30 units equipment, mainly ACS 2S3 "Akatsia" 152 mm caliber. Towed artillery - more than 130 guns of several types. In rocket artillery, 60 systems of three types are involved; the most powerful samples - 6 units. 9K58 "Smerch".
The Rocket Forces also have 16 OTRKs. This is up to 8 complexes "Elbrus", 4 "Tochki-U" and 4 "Iskander-M". These OTRKs differ in their characteristics and capabilities, but their joint operation provides a certain flexibility of use.
The air defense of the ground forces was built using old and new models of Soviet and Russian production. There are MANPADS "Igla" and "Verba", various short and medium-range systems such as "Osa", "Cub", etc. Such rarities as the S-75 and S-125 remain in service.

War in the air

The NAA Air Force has only one squadron of MiG-29 fighters (15 units) and one bomber and assault regiment on the Su-24 and Su-25 (more than 20 units). Also, 26 Mil-24 transport and combat helicopters can be used to engage targets. Support tasks are solved with the help of 4 military transport aircraft and 20 Mi-17 helicopters. There are 15 trainer aircraft.
Azerbaijan is trying to build an unmanned air fleet. To date, at least 16-18 imported UAVs of several types have been put into service, incl. products with a long flight duration and the ability to carry weapons.
The Air Defense Forces operate the long-outdated S-75 and S-125 complexes, as well as the newer Buk-M1. The newest model in their armament is the S-300PM / PMU2 air defense system.

Last year, the Armenian Air Force received 4 Su-30SM fighters, and 8 more aircraft are expected in the near future. Tactical aviation also includes one squadron of 14 Su-25 attack aircraft. There are no more than 10-12 Mi-24 helicopters. Only 4 military transport aircraft are in operation, incl. 3 Il-76, as well as up to 20 helicopters. Educational units have 14 units. technology. Measures are being taken to build the UAV air fleet - through the purchase of imported samples.
The strategic air defense of the Armenian armed forces is being built on the Soviet / Russian-made S-300PT and S-300PS complexes. There are no newer samples.

Numbers and potential

It is easy to see that the armed forces of Azerbaijan are superior to the army of Armenia in terms of quantity and quality. One of the main prerequisites for this is the difference in economic performance. Thus, Azerbaijan's GDP exceeds 47 billion US dollars, while in Armenia this figure does not even reach 13.5 billion. Due to this, Baku can allocate more than 2.8 billion for defense, while Yerevan has a military budget of only 1.38 USD billion

However, realizing the numerical and economic advantage is extremely difficult. In recent decades, the NKR, with the help of Armenia, has constantly been preparing to repel the attack of Azerbaijan and has built a fairly effective defense system. A breakthrough of such a defense can lead to serious losses of the attacking side, and at the same time to the waste of the main advantages in people and equipment.

NAA does not have an overwhelming and decisive superiority over the armies of Armenia and NKR. As a result, a full-scale conflict can quickly turn into a war of attrition - with low-intensity battles on the front line and with attempts to use long-range systems and complexes to destroy targets at great depths. In this case, the advantages of the countries over the enemy and the prospects for the development of events become dim.

Third parties may participate in a possible war. Turkey has already openly declared its readiness to support Azerbaijan. On the side of Armenia, according to various estimates, Iran and Russia can come out - although this possibility has not yet been confirmed by officials. One way or another, the participation of any foreign country can seriously change the balance of power and give one of the parties to the conflict serious advantages.

War or peace

The next stage of the armed confrontation in the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic began several days ago, and over the past time all sides have suffered significant losses. Despite all intentions and actions, none of the parties to the conflict can count on a quick and decisive victory. On the contrary, there are risks of dragging out battles and / or involving third countries in the conflict - with obvious negative consequences.

The existing correlation of forces between Azerbaijan, Armenia and the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic is such that the continuation of the fighting will not be able to radically change the previously existing situation. Accordingly, the optimal solution is a ceasefire and a return to the peace process. Most likely, this will not allow countries to quickly get all the desired results, but it will prevent new senseless losses.

They destroyed some sa-8 which had their radars on and didn't see the attack coming. The system is not perfect.

But looking at the video you see they didn't hide them but put in places easy to spot from the top.

That video not only didn't show anything, you can't see a fucking thing.

You can't be seriously that stupid to believe a blog post with shit video?

On wow.

Isn't Gur Khan that guy butthurt over Crimea? Isn't he Ukrainian?

miketheterrible wrote:That video not only didn't show anything, you can't see a fucking thing.

You can't be seriously that stupid to believe a blog post with shit video?

On wow.

Isn't Gur Khan that guy butthurt over Crimea? Isn't he Ukrainian?

Are you serious ? Gur-Khan is A Kholoptov and He is Russian. The one which is Ukrainian was A Tarasenko.

Mistaken him for Andrei

Still stand by my point, you can't see shit in the video.

Most drones these days have video footage far better than this.

So many videos.. Armenians shooting at drones with AKs or completely ignoring them until they fall in their heads.

Syrian express is also coming. Will be very interesting to see how it will end.

Azeri and armenian soldiers seem to drop like flies while artillery and drones rule the battlefield.

I'm certain Armenia was given advance notice that they would be facing lots of drones. So where are their AD? How bout electronic warfare? Russia has made so many anti drone systems from experience in Syria, how come Armenia hasn't adopted them?

miketheterrible wrote:I'm certain Armenia was given advance notice that they would be facing lots of drones.  So where are their AD? How bout electronic warfare? Russia has made so many anti drone systems from experience in Syria, how come Armenia hasn't adopted them?

Probably money for that lined up someone's pocket, only sane explanation. I don't think they are prepared, unlike the other bunch. Hmm, maybe time to use iskanders and hit the infrastructure of Azerbaijan just to calm them down?

So Turkey has vowed to help Azerbaijan "take back occupied lands". Turkey is thus instigating this conflict and is engaged in a war crime by incitement.

Of course any BS claim on "occupied land" pulled straight from the ass will be considered legitimate.

If Turkey gets heavy with its military involvement then Russia should:

1) Call a UN Security Council Meeting. It does not matter if NATzO members will pretend that Turkey is squeaky clean.

2) Engage in military action to stop Turkish meddling.

kvs wrote:So Turkey has vowed to help Azerbaijan "take back occupied lands".   Turkey is thus instigating this conflict and is engaged in a war crime by incitement.  

Of course any BS claim on "occupied land" pulled straight from the ass will be considered legitimate.  

If Turkey gets heavy with its military involvement then Russia should:

1) Call a UN Security Council Meeting.  It does not matter if NATzO members will pretend that Turkey is squeaky clean.

2) Engage in military action to stop Turkish meddling.

Once Armenia hits Azerbaijan with an Iskander, I think both Turkey and Azerbaijan will cool down.

miketheterrible wrote:

Once Armenia hits Azerbaijan with an Iskander, I think both Turkey and Azerbaijan will cool down.

Out of curiosity, if anyone here were i/c of targeting for that Iskander where would you send it and why there?

Regular wrote:Azeri and armenian soldiers seem to drop like flies while artillery and drones rule the battlefield.

There is neither Armenian or Azeri soldiers dropping like flies and even less long range artillery and drones ruling the battle, on both sides the bulk of the fighting is between the mechanized and infantry forces advancing and retreating when some heavier armoured units appear on the other side with even some tank vs tank engagement.

Rarely ,on both sides, some surveillance drones (when surviving.....and losses on both sides  among UAVs are heavy ) manage to provide near the contact line the position of some scarcely mobile enemy units allowing an aimed artillery strike or attack from UAVs that obviously are recorded on video simply because UAVs are equiped with this type of equipment, but those instances represent a truly minuscule portion of the battlefield operations.

Several of the attacks recorded (several of which show mine's explosions passed for artillery attacks) have caused only minor damages and others damages well within repair in short times passed for "destruction of the enemy vehicle" by the propaganda of both sides.

Most of the irrepairable losses are just the effect of LOS engagement with heavy caliber direct fire involved.

Nothing unusual or noticeable here....

stealthflanker wrote:So the Azeri apparently engages the Armenian S-300.

http://gurkhan.blogspot.com/2020/09/300.html#more

Rather ugly Event.

No authorative source even from Azerbaijan have proposed this information....even less on the basis of a similar video .

Gur Khan unfortunately, since a while, has taken a "bad road" if we talk of geopolitical allignement (for the chronicle lately the old Ukrainian adversary Alex -that ,for what is given to know, now live in the US- became suddenly a friend....and that is truly not a good sign) and in this dispute is openly lined up along one side . the Azerbaijan one.

Therefore tons of salt taking news from him......

Armenian C-300 and Бук batteries are only now menaced to be moved toward the area to cover the conflict zone and if it would be done is only to cope with the possible intrusion of a foreign nation Air Force ,not surely against the battlefield drones that at the moment represent less than a problem even for the few short to medium range outdated AD present in the area.

Tactical UAVs on both sides are at now the equipment suffering by far the major losses in this conflict and that in a situation of very low density and quality of the AD systems and almost complete absence of specialized EW equipment.

JohninMK wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:

Once Armenia hits Azerbaijan with an Iskander, I think both Turkey and Azerbaijan will cool down.

Out of curiosity, if anyone here were i/c of targeting for that Iskander where would you send it and why there?

An s-300 or the fighter jets. Turkey still maintains some f-16 in Azerbaijan since their exercices there. Azeri have ~12 mig-29. No air power abd they loose.

MoD is a valuable target but must be empty. No tactical gain by destroying it.

Azerbaijan has also an oil industry that would greatly affect their economy.

Their iskander, a part of them, is from russian stocks and missiles too. They can even strike deep in Turkey if they need to.

If Russia attacks Turkey then NATO must attack Russia?

Yes. Otherwise It loses all legitimacy as an alliance.

An ally that doesnt protect you is useless.

JohninMK wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:

Once Armenia hits Azerbaijan with an Iskander, I think both Turkey and Azerbaijan will cool down.

Out of curiosity, if anyone here were i/c of targeting for that Iskander where would you send it and why there?

The airforce base that the supposed F-16 flew from.

If Armenia can prove it.

George1 wrote:If Russia attacks Turkey then NATO must attack Russia?

No they won't. Turkey will need to hit first and then they can forget Nato which won't risk a war for Azerbaijan and Erdogan's drems of a new Ottoman empire.

George1 wrote:If Russia attacks Turkey then NATO must attack Russia?

If Russia attacks Turkish soil and Turkey calls in the NATO articles then yes, NATO will be forced to mobilize for war with Russia.

Isos wrote:

JohninMK wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:

Once Armenia hits Azerbaijan with an Iskander, I think both Turkey and Azerbaijan will cool down.

Out of curiosity, if anyone here were i/c of targeting for that Iskander where would you send it and why there?

An s-300 or the fighter jets. Turkey still maintains some f-16 in Azerbaijan since their exercices there. Azeri have ~12 mig-29. No air power abd they loose.

MoD is a valuable target but must be empty. No tactical gain by destroying it.

Azerbaijan has also an oil industry that would greatly affect their economy.

Their iskander, a part of them, is from russian stocks and missiles too. They can even strike deep in Turkey if they need to.

Yup I second that, striking air bases is always a good bet in this day and age, especially considering their reserves drone-wise are only so big.

For the alliance stuff, I'm not sure how article 5 works if your troops are attacked on a mission that isn't NATO approved ("formally" at least) on foreign soil.