Russia-Belarus Relationship

Lukashenko needs to go now. He outlived his usefulness and is causing more headache than not.

he does this now and then to show his people that he's in charge of the country and wont be swayed but normally back tracks or quietly forgets what threats he made. The thing is he knows he/Belarus needs Russia and Russia could replace him if needed. He doesnt have as much support as he thinks he has and i actually think Belarussians would be happy to see him even if it means they get a pro kremiln leader in his place. Maybe Putin will become president of Belarus once he finishes his term in Russia hahahahha:lol!:

Think this is more about the fact that Russia banned oil sales to Ukraine. Basically Ukraine tries to buy from Belarus now. Moscow and Minsk have agreed to stop all oil sales to Ukraine. Lukashenko gives himself deniability with this tough talk and looks like hes tough on Kremlin. In reality the Union State has just cutoff the gas to all of Ukraine due to "bad oil" and "repairs".

it will happen
Union State of Russia and Belarus
https://tass.com/pressreview/1078229

Russian, Belarusian PMs to discuss integration roadmaps in Moscow on November 19

Belarusian Prime Minister Sergey Rumas said earlier that draft roadmaps on closer integration between the two countries would be submitted to the presidents by December 1

MOSCOW, November 5. /TASS/. Russian and Belarusian Prime Ministers, Dmitry Medvedev and Sergey Rumas, will meet in Moscow on November 19 to discuss integration roadmaps.


"A meeting of the Council of Ministers of the Union State of Russia and Belarus will be held on November 19 in Moscow. Its topics will include roadmaps on further integration," Oleg Osipov, spokesman for the Russian government, told TASS on Tuesday.

Belarusian Prime Minister Sergey Rumas told TASS earlier in the day that after the Council of Ministers session on November 19, he and his Russian counterpart would meet with those ministers who had not yet agreed their positions on integration with their counterparts.

He also said that draft roadmaps on closer integration between the two countries would be submitted to the presidents by December 1.

In December 2018, Presidents Vladimir Putin of Russia and Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus made a decision to set up an intergovernmental working group to promote closer integration. According to the Belarusian prime minister, the updated Union State development program would include roadmaps by economic sectors. It is planned to issue 31 such roadmaps.

https://tass.com/politics/1087051

https://regnum.ru/news/economy/2767256.html

Belarus is going to use Baltic states and Ukrainian ports instead of Russian ones...

Ah. The friendship... they remember only when they have to ask for discounts or free money...

If they want so much to use Ukrainian and Baltic ports, why they don't ask money to them?

Belarus is looking for alternatives to Russian oil and new routes for transporting raw materials to its own refineries.

“We are considering the possibility of supplying raw materials from the CIS countries, the Middle East, and Africa to our refineries both through Ukrainian ports and through the ports of the Baltic states, ” Svetlana Gurina, deputy chairman of the Belneftekhim concern , said in an interview with the Belarusian publication.

According to her, this decision is motivated by the next stage of the tax maneuver in Russia, which is "one of the risks of competitiveness of Belarusian refineries)."

“The losses from the tax maneuver for the Belarusian economy over the nine months of this year amounted to about $ 250 million,” Gurina said.

For this reason, Belarus is exploring alternative channels for the supply of raw materials to oil refineries, and, according to Gurina, in the current conditions the attractiveness of routes through the ports of Ukraine and the Baltic countries will increase.

Earlier, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko also said that the republic was looking for alternative options for oil supplies from Russia. Then it was a question of deliveries via the Odessa-Brody pipeline, by reverse from Gdansk and through the ports of Latvia and Lithuania. The Baltic states and Ukraine are interested in such changes, since Russian cargo in recent years has been withdrawn from the ports of these countries.

Earlier, the Belarusian Oil Company (BNK) announced plans to increase the supply of oil products through the territory of Lithuania. That is, despite the anti-Belarusian rhetoric (in particular, on the construction of the Belarusian NPP) and statements about the possible transfer of goods from Lithuanian Klaipeda, the republic’s refineries maintain close cooperation with their Baltic partners.

Clearly no loyalty there, or they are trying to get a better price by trying to pretend there is competition.

That is OK because then Russia can do the same and look to alternatives to using Belarus ports and roads and rail services...

GarryB wrote:Clearly no loyalty there, or they are trying to get a better price by trying to pretend there is competition.

That is OK because then Russia can do the same and look to alternatives to using Belarus ports and roads and rail services...

Well, one of the issue is that they have some residual of the soviet heavy industry there (also to process oil and for petrochemical products).
I do not know if they were ever modernised since the end of USSR but possibly they are not competitive in a free market if they need to buy russian oil at a heavily discounted price...

The Russian government was subsidising  this country as if it was a Russian  federal district to help their economy and to keep them in the russian orbit, but I do not believe  that it was in the agreement that Belorussia  could look for alternatives to russian ports. I understand that for the ports Ukrainian and Baltic state countries the loss of the Russian market was a huge one, but they brought them this by themselves.  Russia now developed their own modern ports and facilities and since they are paying the bill (e.g. subsidising belorussian industries and providing huge discounts in raw materials) having some return would be the minimum to expect.

Otherwise Belorussia can buy american or Saudi oil at full price and Russia can instead build new petrochemical plants somewhere in its own territory.

Belarus is heading to a Maiden themselves and Lukashenko is done for.  One way or another, that guy is done.  So is Belarus.

Its better that Russia takes all their investments back.

Costs of these alternatives are way too much for Belarus which isnt a rich country.  And these countries have no money to subsidize Belarus.

So Belarus is just shooting himself a foot.

Russia will need to at least try to obtain Belarus. It was historical Russian land and losing that will be bad. So they just gotta get Lukashenko out.

A Crimea-like operation would be welcome. Most of Belarus is heavily pro-Russian and Belarussian army will not oppose a Russian takeover.

I don't think RUssia did not draw lessions from the Euromaidan.

Otherwise Belorussia can buy american or Saudi oil at full price and Russia can instead build new petrochemical plants somewhere in its own territory.

I would expect the Russians should be processing their own oil and instead of exporting crude oil, they should be exporting the refined products instead.

This is what Russia was doing with the Ukraine for 15-20 years and they ended up with nothing good... though using ukrainian helicopter engines and ship engines and other ukrainian products meant they could focus on upgrading everything else, and then when the ukraine shut the door, Russia had a bit of a scramble because all of the new technologies they needed to develop to replace the Ukrainian ones, but at the end of the day it makes Russia stronger to make its own stuff, and of course rather than using Soviet era facilities they can make brand new state of the art assets and also change the programme.

Before they had all different aircraft engines, but now they appear to be creating a family range of related designs using the latest design technology and materials, and to expand the range of uses from aircraft to vehicle to ship to power generation etc etc which makes them both more useful without having to redesign or reinvent the technology.

With Belarus, Russia needs to be careful, but also need to be clear... either Belarus gets special treatment because eventually they are going to join the Russian Federation, or they are going to have to learn to fend for themselves... I doubt the US or EU would spend much more than is needed to break Belarus, and they certainly wont spend the amount needed to repair and rebuild it to where it is today... so the choice is integration with Russia or eventual collapse to what the Ukraine is now.

Obviously Russia would prefer integration, but the west probably wont want Russia to get bigger and stronger so it would likely prefer Belarus becomes like the Ukraine is now... even if that means the people of Belarus suffer... think I know which I would choose... but the US and the west have always been good at marketing and propaganda... and the people of Belarus might be fooled into buying that shit sandwich called "American democracy".

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:A Crimea-like operation would be welcome. Most of Belarus is heavily pro-Russian and Belarussian army will not oppose a Russian takeover.

I don't think RUssia did not draw lessions from the Euromaidan.

Have you been to Belarussia lately? Spoken with any Belarussians under the age of 35? There is no political desire among young Belarussians to integrate with Russia. There was a window of opportunity circa 2000 when it could have worked, but not now. It has been almost thirty tears since the USSR dissolved and an entirely new generation has come of age.

calripson wrote:

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:A Crimea-like operation would be welcome. Most of Belarus is heavily pro-Russian and Belarussian army will not oppose a Russian takeover.

I don't think RUssia did not draw lessions from the Euromaidan.

Have you been to Belarussia lately? Spoken with any Belarussians under the age of 35? There is no political desire among young Belarussians to integrate with Russia. There was a window of opportunity circa 2000 when it could have worked, but not now. It has been almost thirty tears since the USSR dissolved and an entirely new generation has come of age.

I heard that as well.
But they should understand that free money from Russia for an independent Belarus should never again happen.

We'll see what happen when the old man dies or end up like Ceaușescu...
I just hope Russia will be ready for all eventualities.

I also believe the belorussians should have learned something from the Ukrainian lessons and how good they are since they cut relationship with Russia.

Eventually they will be reunited, it depend if they choose first to destroy their country listening to the promises from the west (that has no use of them)

Belarus threatens to pull out of Russia integration deal over subsidy row

MINSK (Reuters) - Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko on Sunday threatened to pull out of signing an integration deal with Russia next month if Moscow failed to resolve their dispute over energy subsidies.

Russia has propped up its traditional ally with loans and subsidies to keep Belarus in its political orbit but now plans to phase these out to lessen the burden on its economy.

That has strained ties at the same time as Lukashenko has sought to improve relations with the West.

Belarus previously said that it stands to lose hundreds of millions of dollars a year from changes to Russian tax policy and has tried to negotiate compensation. Russia says the subsidies cost its exchequer billions of dollars.

The two countries are due to sign a roadmap in December to bring their economies closer together.

That includes a unified tax code, closely aligned banking supervision, and a single regulator of oil, gas and electricity markets, according to details of the plan revealed by Russia’s Kommersant newspaper in September.

“If our fundamental issues are not resolved: on the supply of hydrocarbons, on the opening of markets, no roadmaps can be signed,” Lukashenko told reporters on the same day as Belarus held parliamentary elections.

Lukashenko previously accused Russia of trying to strong-arm his country into fully merging with its neighbor and has accused Moscow of falling into “hysterics” over his moves to balance ties between east and west.

PhSt wrote:Belarus threatens to pull out of Russia integration deal over subsidy row

MINSK (Reuters) - Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko on Sunday threatened to pull out of signing an integration deal with Russia next month if Moscow failed to resolve their dispute over energy subsidies.

Russia has propped up its traditional ally with loans and subsidies to keep Belarus in its political orbit but now plans to phase these out to lessen the burden on its economy.

That has strained ties at the same time as Lukashenko has sought to improve relations with the West.

Belarus previously said that it stands to lose hundreds of millions of dollars a year from changes to Russian tax policy and has tried to negotiate compensation. Russia says the subsidies cost its exchequer billions of dollars.

The two countries are due to sign a roadmap in December to bring their economies closer together.

That includes a unified tax code, closely aligned banking supervision, and a single regulator of oil, gas and electricity markets, according to details of the plan revealed by Russia’s Kommersant newspaper in September.

“If our fundamental issues are not resolved: on the supply of hydrocarbons, on the opening of markets, no roadmaps can be signed,” Lukashenko told reporters on the same day as Belarus held parliamentary elections.

Lukashenko previously accused Russia of trying to strong-arm his country into fully merging with its neighbor and has accused Moscow of falling into “hysterics” over his moves to balance ties between east and west.

What an idiot.

However for Russia this can be a pain in the neck.

Btw in 2020 they should have again Belorussians presidential elections (till now broadly dominated by Lukashenko). Maybe Russia could show support to a different candidate since the old man is not trustworthy?

Kremlin insists Union of Russia and Belarus is beneficial to both states

On November 17, the Belarusian president told reporters that Belarus would not sign any agreements with Russia if they violate the constitution and the fundamental principles of the Belarusian society

MOSCOW, November 18. /TASS/. Russia insists that the Union State of Russia and Belarus is beneficial to both states, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday, commenting on the statement made by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, in which he said that Minsk would not sign integration agreements with Russia if Belarusian sovereignty were under threat.

"We still assume that the mutual benefit of this union, the mutual benefit of the Union State is absolutely undisputed," Peskov said.

The Kremlin spokesman pointed out that Russia had taken note of the emotionally charged statement.

On November 17, Lukashenko told reporters that Belarus would not sign any agreements with Russia if they violate the constitution and the fundamental principles of the Belarusian society. "If our key problems concerning hydrocarbon supplies, access to the markets for our commodity, the removal of barriers, etc. are not resolved no roadmaps can be signed," he stated.

Lukashenko noted that when countries sought integration they wanted to gradually improve their economies. "And what are we having? They set conditions year after year. As a result, our economy sustains losses. Who needs such a union?" the Belarusian leader said.

https://tass.com/politics/1089947

The Russian army isn't going to March into Belarus and annex the country, something would have to go really really wrong for them to even consider it.

The desire for the citizens of Belarus to join the Russian Federation is low.

The only way I see this going down is, Luka is replaced by someone pro-russian at that stage they make the move to join Russia this way.

There would be civil unrest, alias the army would mostly go along with it. You may seem some commanders oppose it but I doubt they will get hostile.

Gazprom, Belarusian government sign gas prices protocol for 2020

Russia will continue supplying gas at 2019 year conditions

MOSCOW, February 14. /TASS/. Gazprom and the Belarusian government signed a protocol determining the pricing procedure when supplying natural gas to Belarus in 2020, the Russian holding said on Friday.

The document was signed by Chief Executive Officer of Gazprom Alexei Miller and Belarusian Ambassador to Russia Vladimir Semashko.

Russia and Belarus agreed on the gas price until 2021 on February 7. Russia will continue supplying gas at 2019 year conditions, i.e. at $127 per 1,000 cubic meters.

Belarus annually imports about 20 billion cubic meters of Russian gas.

https://tass.com/economy/1120163

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:

PhSt wrote:Belarus threatens to pull out of Russia integration deal over subsidy row

MINSK (Reuters) - Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko on Sunday threatened to pull out of signing an integration deal with Russia next month if Moscow failed to resolve their dispute over energy subsidies.

Russia has propped up its traditional ally with loans and subsidies to keep Belarus in its political orbit but now plans to phase these out to lessen the burden on its economy.

That has strained ties at the same time as Lukashenko has sought to improve relations with the West.

Belarus previously said that it stands to lose hundreds of millions of dollars a year from changes to Russian tax policy and has tried to negotiate compensation. Russia says the subsidies cost its exchequer billions of dollars.

The two countries are due to sign a roadmap in December to bring their economies closer together.

That includes a unified tax code, closely aligned banking supervision, and a single regulator of oil, gas and electricity markets, according to details of the plan revealed by Russia’s Kommersant newspaper in September.

“If our fundamental issues are not resolved: on the supply of hydrocarbons, on the opening of markets, no roadmaps can be signed,” Lukashenko told reporters on the same day as Belarus held parliamentary elections.

Lukashenko previously accused Russia of trying to strong-arm his country into fully merging with its neighbor and has accused Moscow of falling into “hysterics” over his moves to balance ties between east and west.

What an idiot.

However for Russia this can be a pain in the neck.

Btw in 2020 they should have again Belorussians presidential elections (till now broadly dominated by Lukashenko). Maybe Russia could show support to a different candidate since the old man is not trustworthy?

Indeed Lukashenko is the textbook definition of a moron, he went out his way to cut off his nose to spite his face, he complained the gas wasn't subsidized enough and went out his way to buy even more expensive gas from the West....he weakened ties with the Federation only to just get slapped by the EU....which now just announced they extended the arms embargo against Belarus:

Minsk disappointed with prolongation of arms embargo against Belarus

kvs wrote:You see, the west understands "human" aka animal psychology.   If you beat the dog it will give you respect since you are
the alpha.   If you give the dog unsolicited gifts, the dog will think it is an alpha and you are the weak beta.   You can see
the dog Lukashenko ramping up his beta dog pandering to his perceived alpha masters in NATzO.   For him Russia, which
is the real alpha, is a beta which he reflexively treats with contempt.

All these dogs bordering Russia need to fall into the NATzO alpha dog trap and eat shit for a few decades.   Maybe some of
their citizens will grow enough brain mass to see the light.

Cuckooshenko is just like a grown child, who was spoiled his entire life well in to his geriatric senile age; someone change his adult pampers because he's suffering from diaper rash!!! His antics and his public temper tantrums is like that of a spoiled child, and spoiling your kids produces entitled special snowflake pissants!

I think he will come to his senses when his little childish display doesn't work.

I would be also quite annoyed by the idiotic behavior of this old spoiled child (Lukashenko)....


Apparently anyway they are looking for some additional compromises on the oil issue...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-belarus-oil-russia/russia-makes-new-proposal-to-belarus-for-oil-supply-terms-idUSKBN20F1FO