Russia-Belarus Relationship

The Parliament of Belarus announced the recognition of Crimea as Russian

https://vz.ru/news/2021/11/4/1127641.html

LMFS wrote:The Parliament of Belarus announced the recognition of Crimea as Russian

https://vz.ru/news/2021/11/4/1127641.html

Amazing what a sensation of tightening noose can do for person's flexibility...

The single oil&gas market is the core of the Luki affair.
Still, it is a Russian contribution for the federation anyway.

JohninMK wrote:Couldn't find a  existing thread on this.

It is a growing subject so, to put it in context, a map

It's a pity that Belarus land mass didn't extend to Kaliningrad.
Belarus will always be independent to satisfy the national feeling of being independent, but 80-90% integration will exist between the two. That's what think will end up happening. Luko will be happy as he's still a president, but with the benefits of Russian systems and protection.

Belarus will always be independent to satisfy the national feeling of being independent, but 80-90% integration will exist between the two. That's what think will end up happening. Luko will be happy as he's still a president, but with the benefits of Russian systems and protection.

Well, Belarus can be a Russian republic and Lukashenko can keep his title as President like in Tatarstan.

PhSt wrote:

Belarus will always be independent to satisfy the national feeling of being independent, but 80-90% integration will exist between the two. That's what think will end up happening. Luko will be happy as he's still a president, but with the benefits of Russian systems and protection.

Well, Belarus can be a Russian republic and Lukashenko can keep his title as President like in Tatarstan.

The first pro-western leader of Belarus after Lukashenko will eviscerate the "union" faster than you can say Brest-Litovsk. The only way for union would have been a permanent union with the Belarussian elite and intelligence and military firmly embedded in the Russian system. I think it is already too late for that.

d_taddei2 wrote:

JohninMK wrote:Couldn't find a  existing thread on this.

It is a growing subject so, to put it in context, a map

It's a pity that Belarus land mass didn't extend to Kaliningrad.
Belarus will always be independent to satisfy the national feeling of being independent, but 80-90% integration will exist between the two. That's what think will end up happening. Luko will be happy as he's still a president, but with the benefits of Russian systems and protection.

Well, Stalin drew that map. He kind of gave a middle finger to Lithuania by making Kaliningrad Russian to begin with, but he obviously never conceptualized a Gorbachev coming along.

calripson wrote:

PhSt wrote:

Belarus will always be independent to satisfy the national feeling of being independent, but 80-90% integration will exist between the two. That's what think will end up happening. Luko will be happy as he's still a president, but with the benefits of Russian systems and protection.

Well, Belarus can be a Russian republic and Lukashenko can keep his title as President like in Tatarstan.

The first pro-western leader of Belarus after Lukashenko will eviscerate the "union" faster than you can say Brest-Litovsk. The only way for union would have been a permanent union with the Belarussian elite and intelligence and military firmly embedded in the Russian system. I think it is already too late for that.

Haven't Russia learned from Ukraine? Are you suggesting Russia will just sit idle while NATO installs an anti-Russian leader in Belarus?

PhSt wrote:

calripson wrote:

PhSt wrote:

Belarus will always be independent to satisfy the national feeling of being independent, but 80-90% integration will exist between the two. That's what think will end up happening. Luko will be happy as he's still a president, but with the benefits of Russian systems and protection.

Well, Belarus can be a Russian republic and Lukashenko can keep his title as President like in Tatarstan.

The first pro-western leader of Belarus after Lukashenko will eviscerate the "union" faster than you can say Brest-Litovsk. The only way for union would have been a permanent union with the Belarussian elite and intelligence and military firmly embedded in the Russian system. I think it is already too late for that.

Haven't Russia learned from Ukraine? Are you suggesting Russia will just sit idle while NATO installs an anti-Russian leader in Belarus?

That isn't what he is saying at all. He is saying hypothetically. The pro western stooge of the west fled the country so.....

If the people of Belarus are so stupid as to want to walk down the same path as the people of the Ukraine then let them... Kaliningrad is separated from Russian territory... whether than includes Belarus or not is not really that important.

Personally I think they should have redirected those NSII pipes to Kaliningrad and have the gas hub for Europe there...

PhSt wrote:

calripson wrote:

PhSt wrote:

Belarus will always be independent to satisfy the national feeling of being independent, but 80-90% integration will exist between the two. That's what think will end up happening. Luko will be happy as he's still a president, but with the benefits of Russian systems and protection.

Well, Belarus can be a Russian republic and Lukashenko can keep his title as President like in Tatarstan.

The first pro-western leader of Belarus after Lukashenko will eviscerate the "union" faster than you can say Brest-Litovsk. The only way for union would have been a permanent union with the Belarussian elite and intelligence and military firmly embedded in the Russian system. I think it is already too late for that.

Haven't Russia learned from Ukraine? Are you suggesting Russia will just sit idle while NATO installs an anti-Russian leader in Belarus?

It depends who leads Russia after Putin.

calripson wrote:

PhSt wrote:

calripson wrote:

PhSt wrote:

Belarus will always be independent to satisfy the national feeling of being independent, but 80-90% integration will exist between the two. That's what think will end up happening. Luko will be happy as he's still a president, but with the benefits of Russian systems and protection.

Well, Belarus can be a Russian republic and Lukashenko can keep his title as President like in Tatarstan.

The first pro-western leader of Belarus after Lukashenko will eviscerate the "union" faster than you can say Brest-Litovsk. The only way for union would have been a permanent union with the Belarussian elite and intelligence and military firmly embedded in the Russian system. I think it is already too late for that.

Haven't Russia learned from Ukraine? Are you suggesting Russia will just sit idle while NATO installs an anti-Russian leader in Belarus?

It depends who leads Russia after Putin.

You and I both know that after Putin it's gonna be someone like him. Majority of power is now in hands of the security council of the Duma.

PhSt wrote:

Belarus will always be independent to satisfy the national feeling of being independent, but 80-90% integration will exist between the two. That's what think will end up happening. Luko will be happy as he's still a president, but with the benefits of Russian systems and protection.

Well, Belarus can be a Russian republic and Lukashenko can keep his title as President like in Tatarstan.

Belarus is not going to become part of Russia, these were regarded as two separate republics within the borders of the USSR, with many of their own institutions such as the ministry of culture and so on, and the constitution mandated them as so, with the right for any of the republics to hold a referendum on becoming independent

You certainly aren't going to get closer 'integration' now, as compared to the Soviet-era

You can hardly compare Belarus to Tatarstan. Belarus is a homogenous country of about 10 million people, with their own very similar but still distinct language, history and culture as compared to Russia.
Tatarstan has been part of Russia for longer so to speak, since the mid-16th century. While Russia-Belarussian unity was interrupted by the fall of Kievan Rus' and wasn't restored until the late 18th century. The interim period, most of Belarus spent as part of the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth and it still shows, if you go to the country, look at the architecture, see how the latin-script version of Belarussian looks, and take a look at the size of the Catholic minority there.
Tatarstan is also smaller, the Tatars number several million but more than half don't even live in Tatarstan itself, half of Tatarstan's population are Russians, and most importantly - Tatarstan is enveloped by the rest of Russia, it has no outside borders.
It never made sense to make Tatarstan a union-level republic and thus it was never done.

Belarus will stay as an independent country, but many things will be unified, I agree entirely with d_taddei's reading of things.

flamming_python wrote:and take a look at the size of the Catholic minority there.

Catholism and Protestantism are being pushed by the West. Majority of Belarussians are Orthodox even today.

jhelb wrote:

flamming_python wrote:and take a look at the size of the Catholic minority there.

Catholism and Protestantism are being pushed by the West. Majority of Belarussians are Orthodox even today.

There is a huge community of Belarussian Baptists where I live. I think they have been Baptists from long before 1991.

All Belarusian banks have connected to the Russian analogue of SWIFT (Central Bank of Russia Financial Messaging System)
https://t.me/rian_ru/134043

Russia supplied Belarusian Armed Forces with BTR-82A vehicles. Echelon arrived in Hrodna
https://t.me/modmilby/9934

Belarus expects to restructure part of debt to Russia next year - Minister of Finance
https://t.me/tass_agency/94223

Belarus & Russia Union State: update Deepening integration of Belarus and Russia: why Boris Gryzlov can become the new ambassador in Minsk

A big interview Lukashenko with Solovyov.