And lo and behold Iran signed a contract today for 40 Sukhoi Super Jets SSJ-100's.
This is really good, because it will force the need for a model of aircraft without US components... and that means Russian or even Iranian companies can vie to produce those components.
Once they start producing these bits they can improve them to the point where they are as good at least as the American parts and then perhaps start replacing those parts in more and more aircraft (ie the same aircraft type and other aircraft types too).
They are selling mostly to countries who want a good plane... first and foremost it has to do the job well to be chosen over a Boeing or Airbus, but it will also be sold to countries having problems with the US or Europe because they don't have other choices... and for them less US components makes sense as well...
Agree that Iran should not openly withdraw from NPT , but I should have added that , it could do so at a time when nuclear arsenal is complete , but yet not revealed . As a warning . With the aim of forcing the other side to back down . A little better than a nuke test . But the reason they are considering it now , could indicate they are already there .
Lets be honest and face facts... Israel and the US and to a lessor extent the EU will jump up and down and claim Iran is building nuclear weapons if they scrap this new agreement... whether they have any evidence or not... we have seen no evidence is needed... just some defector or white helmet video on youtube and they are guilty...
In such an environment it will be hard to create facilities to build nuclear weapons...
The NPT treaty guarantees Iran access to commercial nuclear technology to generate electrical power but this access has been criticised and blocked by the west every chance it got.
Only Iran has needed this extra agreement to ease sanctions... sanctions that should never have been imposed in the first place...
Israel is immune to this... they never signed the NPT but for some reason they don't have to... different rules apply it seems.
But Russia must provide repair and servicing of planes , since Iranian companies wanting to make quick profit , may not spend as much on this . And blame " Russian planes " , for any accident caused by own greed .
There was an agreement between Iran, the Ukraine and Russia to make An-140 aircraft wasn't there?
Iran would make their own planes, Russia would make its own planes and ukraine would make planes too...
Well that must have gone tits up, so why not pick a similar Russian transport and build them in Iran in the factor that made the Ukie planes?
It could also be redesigned to service other Russian aircraft of all types... hell, they could make basic simple Su-30s. That would be very cheap as they would pretty much actually be Su-27UBs but made with modern practises... as commerce builds up and Iran becomes more wealthy they could upgrade components and turn these aircraft from Su-27UBs to two seat Su-35s if they want to... depending on how much they want to spend.
Making them themselves no one will be able to cut off supply or deny them spare parts.
They could integrate RVV-BDs into the design and replace their F-14s with these aircraft.
Just looking at the new products Iran makes... they have talent... really only limited by the fact that they are basing their new stuff on 1970s US stuff that they already operate ...give them new designs and they could be world class...
The amount of money Iran spends on Russian fighter jets , should not be so high as to detract Iran from building nuclear arsenal . Because like Russia , any war with yank or usraeli will quickly turn nuclear . Or the threat of it .Just imagine Iran sinking an aircraft carrier . That it can do . With 5000 yank sailor dead . What is yank response ? Or yank destroy a dam in Iran or hit nuclear power with radiation . What is Iranian response ? So conventional arms will play a role . But not as a big a role as a conflict with say Saudi . Here nukes not needed . But with Pakistan for example , yes nukes needed .
The value of an Iranian nuke is not getting to use it... it is making the west and Israel back off because they no longer win if it comes down to an escalation spiral.
In Syria or Iraq the US can pretty much do what it likes including invading and sending in troops... even illegally under international law, because they are sure as long as they don't go too far no consequences for them or their forces in the region.
Obviously they wont attack Russian forces or Russian bases because they know the Russians can attack their forces in the region too so that is the limit...
What Iran needs is not some super powerful airforce that will stop anything and everything... a couple of A-50s and a couple of dozen Su-30s on their own could dramatically blunt a cruise missile attack with 100 missiles... and that is not even considering SAMs located near potential targets... specifically TOR and Panstir systems.
Some blimp radars... which would also improve radio communications in mountainous regions together with ground based radar and SAMs... integrated into a unified air defence system to coordinate all the assets on land and in the air means the best protection for Iran... and at some stage a satellite to help monitor the airspace in the region... and then you could build a nuclear weapon building facility with its rooftops decorated with target symbols all you want and there is little the US could do.
The key is some specific components and full integration and cooperation.
Building basic Flankers under licence relatively cheaply offers a move forward in aircraft design that should be attainable and valuable for Iran.. they don't need 5th gen stealthy planes... they would be too expensive for their needs and they would likely not need such aircraft.
With A-50UKs or even A-100Ks (why not spend a little more when you are only going to be buying three or four and get the extra performance) your planes don't need to be dogfighters that Israeli fighters can test to the limits... load them up with RVV-BD and attack them from 200km away... and R-77s and fight them from 100km away... and you could use the fact that the Israeli F-35s wont be carrying many missiles on their long range strikes against Iran... an Su-30 could carry a couple of RVV-BDs and a half dozen R-77s and the rest could be R-74s... use the RVV-BDs at max range against any support aircraft the Israeli aircraft might have... tankers and AWACS and jammer aircraft and the R-77s to shoot down any AMRAAMs the F-35s fire... and when you get really close the R-74s against gun armed F-35s should be pretty one sided no matter what the talent of the F-35 pilots...
Protect your A-100s and you should be able to shoot down the other threats using data from the A-100... and you can probably incorporate electronic upgrades for the S-300s and use the A-100s to terminally guide your missiles against aircraft and cruise missiles...
There was a time when no air defence system would have a chance against a cruise missile attack, but these days with the right components and money spent in specific areas on the right equipment you could get a rather good defence without spending a fortune...
The AWACS is worth spending on... but with fighters an Su-30 with decent weapons has range and endurance and plenty of weapon pylons. Its lack of a super radar is not important because the A-100 and blimp radars will be doing the dog work there... blimp radars that can each operate for 3 months at a time, plus A-100 aircraft that could cover much of Iranian airspace each... having 3-4 of them should allow round the clock coverage when needed... and with inflight refuelling and extra crews coverage could be even better. A few TOR and Pantsir batteries beneath each radar blimp and S-300s and TOR and Pantsir near potential targets like Comms centres, HQs, and airfields of course.., and nuclear power stations and "research facilities".
Iran makes its own MANPADs... and the latest models with proximity fuses are perfectly suited to shooting down low flying cruise missiles... as long as they get warning in time... provided by blimps and aircraft.
Moving blimps around regularly would make planning an attack a nightmare, which would make the blimps a priority target... being aware of that, this means you get warning of an attack if something happens to a few blimps...
Hell you could use information from the radar blimps to better map the weather in the mountains, which would be valuable anyway.