IRAN: Latest and Breaking News

I wish, I could agree. But 60% of a Tank or Rifle does not do anything. I have said enough on this. But repeat that centrifuges themselves can be made to resist attacks. New generation can be made to vent gas and slow down safely, in case of power cut or loss of process control.

If Israel or the US thinks you actually have nuclear weapons capability or are on the brink of getting it they will most likely attack.
Actually having sufficient weapons to defend yourself should be the goal rather than a nuclear capability that will get you attacked and sanctioned by everyone, but without enough actual material to use to defend yourself.

They said the centrifuges destroyed were old model ones and the new ones they are replacing them with are much more efficient and effective, so that is already a negative consequence of their attack.

Ultimately they are in a position where if they have decided they will only ever be safe with nuclear weapons then they are going to do something like this and say we are scaling up our enrichment (but not say how much further they are actually going) in a bid to cover for the increased activity, and not invite an attack.

Or if they are still opposed to nuclear weapons then this is stepping up their equivalent of crippling economic sanctions on the west... they wont have any use for the more highly enriched material but if the US folds... like Biden seems to be doing on things, then they can use the already enriched material they don't need as something they can bargain away for a better deal.

I am pretty sure the west does not want to go back to the original deal because essentially the deal was all about giving the west better knowledge of Irans nuclear programme and delaying any potential weapon making capacity by the 10 or so years it was going to operate for.

Well the original deal was already about to expire with Iran being able to buy new weapon systems and other perks and a stage they never wanted Iran to get to... they were supposed to use their inspection anywhere knowledge to work out where to bomb and by now there would be a lot of smoking craters in Iran.

Their problem was that Iran took advantage of the situation and used the growth and development and stupid interventions by the US in Syria and Iraq and interventions supported by the west in Yemen, that were supposed to change the balance in favour of the US or Saudi Arabia, and Iran and also Russia tried to assist their Neighbours and traditional allies and essentially turned the tide.

The US occupies Iraq and owns Iraq but they are not really the heroes and saviours they think they are... there are plenty of Iraqis who resent their presence and just want them to leave and being a majority Shia are not as hostile to Shia based Iran as Saddams sunni muslim government was. Equally in Syria and less openly in Yemen Iran has made a significant effect on the ground in dealing with ISIS and the chaotic rabble the west wanted to take over... thinking they can create some sort of new democracy... cough cough... never happens... and ending up with Libya or losing.

I am sure the Syrian people and the people of Yemen are glad the US are losing....

The point is that the whole purpose of the JPOA treaty from Obamas perspective was a delaying are recon exercise to slow Iran down in getting nuclear weapon technology, and allowing them to find targets... people, buildings, machinery, etc to target to slow it down even further... or perhaps even make them have to start again.

In a sense Trumps tantrum was inevidible... the Biden and Obama administration should be happy that he was made to look the bad pro war guy and they could pretend to be the good cop trying to fix things... but don't look too close at the details of their new demands... Iran to withdraw and stop interfering in our regime change operations... which is eventually going to include one in Iran anyway, and get rid of ballistic weapon and space launch technology too... which Iran will not agree to of course, so back to normal stalemate.

Israeli can't destroy these programs by killing "top people".

There needs to be penalties to such attacks... imagine how ape shit the US would go if a country murdered a US citizen... unless of course that country was Saudi Arabia...

Iran can never match the west in terms of conventional capability. Even if it could, the west  or some other country will then attack using Nukes. Therefore the only way for Iran survival are Nukes. They could have built this ten years ago. The problem is political. The increased and disproportionate power of the Liberals. If the national and democratic forces ( majority) replace the pro-western defeatist minority, then problem is solved. Political events are hard to predict. The future is unknown.

I think this photo is re-touched or photoshoped. The reason is that there is great symmetry between the right and left side of face and symmetry about the beard line. No face is usually like this. Have Iranians fabricated a scape goat to take the pressure off Usrael for it's crime? It seems likely. Divert public attention, while they ink another humiliating secret deal to sell Iran's security. Does anyone have software analysis to see if there are any repeat pixelation in this photo? I bet no such person exists. Care to bet?

https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/459911/Iran-releases-photo-and-name-of-Natanz-saboteur

Here I found the unretouched version of photo of criminal. By own admission. Why Iranians not put this photo to interpol??

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=Netanyahoo+photo&safe=strict&source=hp&ei=zNh7YIfqHISPlwTm962oBg&oq=Netanyahoo+photo&gs_lcp=ChFtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1ocBADMgQIABANMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeMggIABAIEA0QHjoOCC4QsQMQxwEQowIQkwI6CAgAELEDEIMBOgsILhCxAxDHARCjAjoFCAAQsQM6CAguELEDEIMBOgUILhCxAzoCCAA6CAguELEDEJMCOgIILjoKCC4QsQMQChCTAjoECAAQCjoHCC4QDRCTAjoGCAAQDRAeUKkaWI9oYImDAWgAcAB4AIABoQGIAfgPkgEEMC4xNpgBAKABAbABAA&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-hp#imgrc=Z9PQOwVSRj71hM

I wish, I could agree. But 60% of a Tank or Rifle does not do anything

To be clear, Uranium processing takes time and effort, so when they talk about enriching to 20% or 60%, what they are actually saying is that we are 6 months away from having weapons grade material, or two months... or two weeks going from 20% to 60% but also introducing rather more efficient centrifuges that do the job much faster and more efficiently...

It is not saying we don't know how to make a bomb... it is essentially telling them how much time it would take to get enough weapons grade material to make x number of bombs if we decided to do so.

Yes that seems to be what they are saying. But with Nukes, they need to be ready weapons to deter an attack. Otherwise they will not deter. Not only they need to be ready, but ready in quantity and quality. One or two or ten may still not be enough. You need hundred or so. And with warheads installed. To fire instantly. Like the old Soviet and American ICBM systems. No other country, other than Iran, has this stupid nuclear policy of ambiguity or incremental enrichment. They either have nukes or they don't. If Iran was Switzerland, protected by larger armed countries in Western alliance, then no need for Nukes. Or if it was Thailand, the whorehouse of the Yanks, then again no need. But Iran is neither. Policy of Nuclear ambiguity was tried before and failed and partly led to the failed JCPOA.

nomadski wrote:
Yes that seems to be what they are saying. But with Nukes, they need to be ready weapons to deter an attack.  Otherwise they will not deter. Not only they need to be ready, but ready in quantity and quality. One or two or ten may still not be enough. You need hundred or so. And with warheads installed. To fire instantly. Like the old Soviet and American ICBM systems. No other country, other than Iran, has this stupid nuclear policy of ambiguity or incremental enrichment. They either have nukes or they don't. If Iran was Switzerland, protected by larger armed countries in Western alliance, then no need for Nukes. Or if it was Thailand, the whorehouse of the Yanks, then again no need. But Iran is neither. Policy of Nuclear ambiguity was tried before and failed and partly led to the failed JCPOA.

Thailand is closer to China now than to the US.

As for Iran's restraint, it seems as if they are trying to buy time. For what I don't know.

Also if one of the main purposes of arming and funding Hezbollah was to create a powerful deterrent on Israel's northern border, why not use them?

Iran should get maybe with Russian help 2 or 3 nuclear submarines armed with nuclear weapons. And maybe some launchers underground.

Glad to see Thailand closer to China. Perhaps China will help agriculture and stop cheap import of American Rice that bancrupted farmers, forcing them to sell children into prostitution for the GI and western paedophile tourists.

The Iranians are not buying time or playing patient with the Yanks. The dynamic of internal politics has brought about this situation.

The leaders of the " resistance front" met a few years ago, to decide on cohesive response to killing of Iranian General. Not much came of it. Since although allies, each faces constraints against action towards the Zionist and Western alliance. And they can not be expected to do all the heavy lifting and sustain all the damage, while Iran escapes all involvement. Even for protecting own trade routes and shipping and lines of communication. There can be no one sided friendship. All take and no give. Plus the Iran allies do not have the firepower to deliver a suitable blow against yank or Usrael targets. And will sustain much heavier damage. Only way for Iran is to  make itself invulnerable by becoming a Nuke state and then giving much more aid to allies for decisive attack. Iran now under economic strain also, but still able to become Nuke armed state. Not sure about how much aid it can give to allies........

@yougo90

The problem is nuclear non-proliferation treaty. And also Russia has own national interest with Yanks to consider. Relations with Iran important, but not at expense of relations with America. But like the idea nevertheless. I think Russia and China could turn a blind eye to Iran Nuclear weapon development, and not kick up a fuss about it at UN etc, with sanctions. In return they could (privately) inspect weapons to ensure they do not target them by design.

elconquistador wrote:Thailand is closer to China now than to the US.

As for Iran's restraint, it seems as if they are trying to buy time. For what I don't know.

Also if one of the main purposes of arming and funding Hezbollah was to create a powerful deterrent on Israel's northern border, why not use them?

Because it is too early. Without Syria as a backup it would be hard for Hezbollah to hold out against Israeli counter attacks.

elconquistador wrote:Thailand is closer to China now than to the US.

As for Iran's restraint, it seems as if they are trying to buy time. For what I don't know.

Also if one of the main purposes of arming and funding Hezbollah was to create a powerful deterrent on Israel's northern border, why not use them?

Hezbollah's main goal is to defend sovereignty Lebanon.

Iran's main goal is to defend the sovereignty of Iran.

Compare Iran's position 10 years ago and now. They have started to improve their bilateral ties with China and Russia. Their economy is going to do quite well with the new trade-agreement between themselves and the Chinese. Their military is being improved domestically (i.e. drones, and short/medium range missiles) and the arms embargo has finally been lifted on them.

They simply need to continue and expand upon this progress. Multiple countries want the US to leave (namely Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria) and this will likely realize in the next 5-10 years. The Chinese are growing much stronger internationally, which means that less attention can be diverted upon Iran.

It is Israel that is on a short clock here, not the other way around.

I suspect that the Iranian air-force is going to start buying either Chinese or Russian planes within the next 5 years. That and their domestic air-defense would prevent a great deal of attacks upon their country.

Hezbollah is probably waiting for the Syrian and Iraqi conflicts to die down (and the former expelling US troops from the country). That would create a simple land-bridge between Iran -> Iraq -> Syria -> Lebanon.

nero wrote:

elconquistador wrote:Thailand is closer to China now than to the US.

As for Iran's restraint, it seems as if they are trying to buy time. For what I don't know.

Also if one of the main purposes of arming and funding Hezbollah was to create a powerful deterrent on Israel's northern border, why not use them?

Hezbollah's main goal is to defend sovereignty Lebanon.

Iran's main goal is to defend the sovereignty of Iran.

Compare Iran's position 10 years ago and now. They have started to improve their bilateral ties with China and Russia. Their economy is going to do quite well with the new trade-agreement between themselves and the Chinese. Their military is being improved domestically (i.e. drones, and short/medium range missiles) and the arms embargo has finally been lifted on them.

They simply need to continue and expand upon this progress. Multiple countries want the US to leave (namely Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria) and this will likely realize in the next 5-10 years. The Chinese are growing much stronger internationally, which means that less attention can be diverted upon Iran.

It is Israel that is on a short clock here, not the other way around.

I suspect that the Iranian air-force is going to start buying either Chinese or Russian planes within the next 5 years. That and their domestic air-defense would prevent a great deal of attacks upon their country.

Hezbollah is probably waiting for the Syrian and Iraqi conflicts to die down (and the former expelling US troops from the country). That would create a simple land-bridge between Iran -> Iraq -> Syria -> Lebanon.

That's just for domestic consumption. Hezbollah is one hundred percent an Iranian (IRGC) proxy, over 90 percent of their funding comes from Iran.

Hezbollah went to Syria because the Iranians ordered them do so, and there apparantly was a lot of domestic doubt about this decision (which turned out the right one in the end)

Likewise, if Iran decides Hezbollah will strike Israeli targets on the border they'll do so.

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I am also not sure about your assessment on conflict dying down in Syria and Iraq. It won't die down. These states are being kept in perpetual states of division and chaos so that they are more easily exploitable and serve as a deterrent for other states thinking about allying with any of the major power on the Iran-Russia-China axis.

If anything the Biden-Blinken neo-liberals will want to re-ignite these conflicts either by starving the population into submission, funding ISIS, supporting third state incursions or supporting regional separatism

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As for the statement that the US will leave the Middle East, they won't. US foreign policy in the Middle East is at this point a zero-sum game that benefits only Israel - and the Deep State hooknosed likes of AIPAC man all the important positions in the Biden Administration. Obviously it's never enough for Israel, they now want White Christian 18 year olds from Red States to die for 'freedom and democracy' in Iran

And then there is the petrodollar of course

One wonders....

https://www.arabnews.com/node/1844926/middle-east

The purpose of the announcements of the level of enrichment they are achieving with their uranium is to to warn the west when they will have nuclear weapons... if they actually wanted nuclear weapons they would say nothing till they had nuclear weapons ready to use so that an attack to prevent them getting nuclear weapons is never on the table.

Saying how high the enrichment levels are is to basically say... you attacked us to stop us getting a bomb, but our response to your attacks is to accelerate the process to get a bomb.

We don't really want a bomb but if you keep attacking us we will make some.

This is all about stopping attacks, preventing invasions, and trying to get the US back to the agreement with no strings attached... you give up the sanctions and we have something we can stop doing to go back to the deal too.

The first part :

"....... The purpose of the announcements of the level of enrichment they are achieving with their uranium is to to warn the west when they will have nuclear weapons......"

Perhaps we can conclude this to be intention. But perhaps we can conclude that they are simply raising the stakes in negotiations. 9 or 10 grammes per day means 1000 grammes per 100 days or 3500 grammes in one year or approx equivalent to 1700 gramme of 99 percent weapon grade metal or in five years time enough for primitive fission device. One experimental warhead. Very scary and effective and timely detterent against war ?

The second part :

"... if they actually wanted nuclear weapons they would say nothing till they had nuclear weapons ready to use so that an attack to prevent them getting nuclear weapons is never on the table....."

Agree. They would say nothing until arsenal ready. One reason they have not replied in kind to these attacks, apart from the obvious desire of the defeatist Liberals to surrender their assets to the Yanks, could be that the arsenal is not ready. Then I have to ask why not ready?  Complacency and inertia in the face of imminent threat of all out war is unforgivable. Someone said, if true, that they have set aside something for a rainy day. Even if true, this something can and must be displayed BEFORE a devastating war breaks out, like right now, before they strike Usrael. Not after. And the better make sure that this little something is a minimal credible detterence, consisting of at least one to two hundred MIRVS on ICBM, with a good survivability probability. They must get their ass into gear, before it is too late.

The third part :

"....... Saying how high the enrichment levels are is to basically say... you attacked us to stop us getting a bomb, but our response to your attacks is to accelerate the process to get a bomb...... "

No it does not imply this threat. As I have calculated, it is way too slow for actual weapon development. And as you said, if they wanted the bomb, then they would not advertise it. So it more likely implies raising the stakes in negotiations.

The fourth part :

"..... This is all about stopping attacks, preventing invasions, and trying to get the US back to the agreement with no strings attached... you give up the sanctions and we have something we can stop doing to go back to the deal too....."


The greatest mistake was to mix defence with economics and further by religion. History has shown that nations only negotiate and trade IF they can not defeat or occupy another nation. If the first option is too costly then they opt for the second. Iranian leaders know this, but political forces, defeatists who prefer foreign rule and are in power, have sabotaged Iranian defence. Iran needs defence first and then any enemy ( country) will have no option other than to deal with it.Any country will behave like a predator towards any other. Given the potential.

https://youtu.be/2wbpYyUMjXs

Now let's sit and enjoy a beautiful sunset together.

nomadski wrote:"... if they actually wanted nuclear weapons they would say nothing till they had nuclear weapons ready to use so that an attack to prevent them getting nuclear weapons is never on the table....."

Agree. They would say nothing until arsenal ready. One reason they have not replied in kind to these attacks, apart from the obvious desire of the defeatist Liberals to surrender their assets to the Yanks, could be that the arsenal is not ready. Then I have to ask why not ready?  Complacency and inertia in the face of imminent threat of all out war is unforgivable. Someone said, if true, that they have set aside something for a rainy day. Even if true, this something can and must be displayed BEFORE a devastating war breaks out, like right now, before they strike Usrael. Not after. And the better make sure that this little something is a minimal credible detterence, consisting of at least one to two hundred MIRVS on ICBM, with a good survivability probability. They must get their ass into gear, before it is too late.

What is the point of having a warhead if you do not have a viable delivery mechanism?

Iran is still working on its long range rockets. Until they have a rocket which can deliver a warhead into the United States it is kind of pointless to have nuclear weapons. The Yanks do not care if Iran blows up their henchmen. Iran is working on larger solid rocket engines than they have ever built and keep increasing this capability. I think soon enough we will see an actual weapons program. But with the deal they have with China and the cessation of the weapons sanctions perhaps they would rather wait until they upgrade their conventional forces until they engage on that.

They have delivery mechanism. Previous Rocket had 30 to 50 kg payload. Enough for simple but efficient weapon design system. ( Warhead design has much improved in 70 years. They are no longer a Ton in weight ) Or even more than enough for very advanced but lightweight fusion device. ( possibly within Iran capability ) How many Rockets they have ready? But they are on mobile launchers not silo. How many warheads? They need at least 100 to 200. For say 10 to 20 to reach target. Each taking out a city of a million. That is enough.

Conventional forces still needed in the early stages of a few days or max a weak. Beyond that against a Nuke state, their use not possible. Then a warning shot across their side ( Nuclear). Then tactical strike perhaps and if not stop go to MAD.

You are missing the point.

The announcements that they are further deviating from the deal is to encourage the other side to return to it.

If they were interested in actually making a bomb.... whether they are or are not they would be enriching at the max rate possible and this attack has actually accelerated it because it has allowed them to increase the number and quality of centrifuges they are using and with no access for the IAEA they can't look in the secret places they might be setting up thousands of centrifuges to process the material.

The announcements are a slow progression of steadily increasing levels to react to every provocation that applies pressure but does not invite retaliation in terms of further sanctions etc.

The goal of the enrichment is to force the US and the EU back into compliance.

Any other behind the scenes activity will need to be kept secret because the whole purpose of this agreement is to allow full inspectors access to Iran for x number of years to make sure they don't make bombs, well the original agreement has already started to expire allowing Iran to buy weapons... this is either going to end with a return to the treaty but the terms of that mean Iran could now make bombs on the sly so they need a change to the new treaty to keep inspectors there and inspecting where they please so secret centrifuges can't be an option ever.

If Iran had any brains they would be rushing to get at least five to ten bombs... they can test one or two just to prove they have some and that they work... they already have missiles with the range to hit US and Israeli targets in the region, though the ability to deliver a weapon to Europe would be handy too.

The west is not going to treat Iran with any respect till they have nukes, just don't let them try to negotiate them away or you will end up like Libya.

They are now about to write and sign a new "deal" !  The present state apparatus will sell the family furs in exchange for shiny plastic beads and mirror......LOL.

https://youtu.be/LSmtV83vhhM

".... The west is not going to treat Iran with any respect till they have nukes, just don't let them try to negotiate them away or you will end up like Libya....."

Exactly. If I was in charge of any Nuke programme, I would build centrifuges in secret and get design of Nuke from Kim. Then build Nukes. Not tell the officials or my next door neighbour or anyone........ Then on a parade one day, bring one OUT with the sign of " AMERICA" written on warhead section.

crod wrote:One wonders....

https://www.arabnews.com/node/1844926/middle-east

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/20/world/middleeast/iran-israeli-attacks.html

Agree with part of the conclusion relating to problems in Iran leading to a continuation of these attacks. Not so much related to failings by security, but by political leadership. Either Iran has Nuke weapons or it does not. The recent attacks could have easily turned to full scale war. One that Iran could hardly win, in the short term. Therefore a detterence force should have been displayed. And it was not. This indicates that either Iran has no Nukes, which is criminal betrayal of national security. Or it is incompetence in hiding this detterence and allowing a war to take place. A political failure. Security services can not stop all attacks by defensive measures alone. No country can invest so much in defensive measures alone. Although improvements can be made.

Disagree with the part of the article, indicating the usefulness of Nuclear negotiations and limitations in favour of lifting of sanctions. Iran, irrespective of a hidden programme, is giving up it's rights to industry and science and defence in favour of empty promises of non-viable  or useful economic arrangement with it's enemy. Without defence, there can be no economic prosperity. Any enemy will set about on a conquest  first, rather than to trade.This again is a result of lack of political leadership.

It is this problem that results in inaction towards an enemy, when that enemy carries out blatant attacks. Despite the facts being known, covers up the source of attack and attributes them to internal or unknown elements. Eg :

Ukraine plane attack. Culprit : Yank special ops with MANPAD. Scapegoat : IRGC.

Natanz first attack. Culprit : Ditto or Usrael with drone or Mortar. Scapegoat : Iran nuclear industry giant conspiracy. ( explosion external to building, not desk).

Fakhrizadeh assassination. Culprit : Special ops, witnessed by public. Scapegoat : unknown fantasy sattelite shooter. Public report explosion first, then shooting .

Latest Natanz attack. Culprit : Netanyahoo by own admission. Scapegoat : Unknown Iranian individual acting by himself. First reports of external attack to power lines. Or electrical junction box. Later reports ( corrected) says internal  attack by explosive in machine planted 15 years ago !........

Soleymani assassination. Culprit : USA. Response weak, warned in advance. In face of huge blow to Iran. Pathetic submissive defeatist weak leadership.

............

............
https://youtu.be/Rr8ljRgcJNM

Then on a parade one day, bring one OUT with the sign of " AMERICA" written on warhead section.

Nah... you test one... and then when they go apeshit and some say it was all you had test three more one after the other...

Soleymani assassination. Culprit : USA. Response weak, warned in advance. In face of huge blow to Iran. Pathetic submissive defeatist weak leadership.

Actually I think the opposite.

The advanced warning meant it was not a surprise... for all we know there might a sub in the Persian gulf with nuclear armed cruise missiles ready to fire at Iran if it starts a war and unannounced launches of ballistic missiles against US positions might have been all they were waiting for to strike back.

The warning meant they had time to stop it if they could but also little chance of loss of life, which shows which side respects life even of their enemies.

And the third thing is that even with warning and all their super weapons like PAC-3 Patriot and THAAD and their naval ABM systems on their ships they didn't stop a single missile and had to take their lumps with no means to respond... like every country the US has ever attacked... ironically.

Obviously next time less warning...

@garry
I thought they didn’t have anti air assets around that base? But some thereafter? Not sure and I could be wrong but I thought I read on here that the patriot system was not there?