My reasoning is based on the fact that the US doesn't want the existing deal because it does not control Iran enough... even under the deal Iran can interfere in Syria (not judging, just stating a fact... Iran has every right to help its ally Syria in this conflict... in fact more right than the US has to destabilise Syria for its own selfish reasons) and creating long range rockets means Iran can launch her own satellites and the ability to put up satellites and see what Israel and other hostile neighbours are doing in the region can give Iran more power than they want it to have.
Obviously Iran wont want to sign a deal that means it cannot support allies like Syria or the Palestinians, and it cannot design and make long range missiles to defend itself, so that means Iran is where it was before the agreement was signed... ie back under sanctions and economic blockade.
Now if Iran decides to withdraw from the NPT then Russia could no longer help them with civilian nuclear power generation, because that is what the signing of the NPT treaty is supposed to provide... you say no to weapons and get power generation technology given to you.
The only obvious reason to withdraw from the NPT is because you intend to make nuclear weapons and that creates a race, and they will decide how long it would take to make a few bombs and that will be their window to attack you and stop you from building a nuclear weapon... in other words you are telling them to attack you.
What I am suggesting is that you build up your conventional military first... I talk about Su-30s and MiG-31s but what is most important is an IADS that will command and control your resources to maximise your efficiency. The British didn't have a more powerful air force than the Luftwaffe during the Battle of Britain... they had much fewer planes, but it was communication and coordination that led to them being able to win most of the fights because distance meant all of the enemy planes could not be present at one time, and watching them they could determine how many interceptors to send up to have a good chance of doing some serious damage without sending up all the planes all the time and exhausting the pilots and ground crew and wearing out the planes.
Iran does not need to protect every square inch of their land... they don't need thousands of planes and thousands of major SAM systems... look at what the Syrians have done on their own, with fairly limited resources.
And that is the other thing... the Americans complained about their ESM aircraft being jammed... when has that ever happened before?
When has a little middle east country they attacked actually been able to strike back?
And I don't mean terrorist attacks like 11/9 or the USS Cole attack... especially when they were largely Saudi Arabian attacks on the US, or the USS Liberty attack which was Israel....
It would not be impossible for Iran to buy Yakhont missiles... 300km range is plenty... most places the gulf is are not even that wide... they could position shipping crates all along their coastline... they can make temporary housing out of them in places... there could be thousands along there as cheap accommodation for locals... and then they could buy the containerised Yakhont system from Russia... and put them there too.
If war happens , then Iran can not protect itself with conventional weapons . Even very good ones from Russia .
Actually I think they can... with good coordination, and we know there are several reasons why there is war in Syria and Yemen and indeed in Iraq, but not in Iran... they can claim all the superiority they like but Iran is rather stronger than they like already... Iraq and Syria are in wars because they are too friendly with Iran... if Iran was weak it would have been easier to attack Iran... but they haven't.
And the Russians will not go to nuclear war with yanks over Iran . They will not even go to conventional war with yanks over Syria .
Of course... because they recognise nuclear war as being suicide, and that a conventional war could easily escalate out of control to become a nuclear war and therefore also suicide... but you could argue that only firing 105 missiles against three empty targets and not sending those missiles anywhere near Russian forces means the US and UK and France don't want a nuclear or conventional war with Russia either.
If the US or Israel think Iran could actually nuke Israel then they wont be so aggressive either...
I hate to say it, but defence agreements that include Russia and China and Iran and other countries in the region could be very valuable to Iran... but I think Iran will have to change some of its policies... including foreign bases on its territory.
Iran has an enormous coastline along the Persian Gulf... it could find a place that could be suitable for a reasonable port where there is nothing at the moment and they could say to Russia or China that they can build a modest size base to resupply and support operations in the region in return for building up infrastructure in the region in a mutual agreement where Russia or China can't just stay forever and abuse the situation, but Iran can't just chuck them out when everything is built and have a free port built for them by Russia or China...
I remember reading of a rail line that was going to be built through Iran and Russian companies were interested... that railway could connect that port to Russia for things they need from Russia to support operations but foodstuffs and services could be bought locally to support the local economy.
Everybody wins.
Therefore Iran needs nukes . It's own independent detterent .
Totally agree, but nukes will take time and if you don't build up conventional defences it can be attacked before it is ready.
That is why I suggest long term nukes, but short term building up conventional forces to just defend yourself... and continue with the long range rockets... but make it space oriented... joint ventures with the Russian space agency... launch pads nearer to the equator get extra speed from the earths rotation for many orbit paths... (makes not difference for polar orbits, but for geostationary orbits it can allow a higher orbit than with the same rocket from a different place further away from the equator).
Putin is a fool to call them 'our Western partners'........What a joke! 30 years now since the end of the Soviet Union, and these guys haven't relented for one single day trying to undermine Russia.
I think he means in terms of having to work together... like fellow workers rather than spouses... you don't need to even like the people you work with... you just need to cooperate and get things done.
And @ Garry, it will be a miracle for any weapons deals to materialize between Russia/ China and Iran as there is tremendous pressure from the Zionist controlled US to fall in line, unless Russo-West relations decline further. Only then there is some hope.
I think the attack by UK, US, and France has changed the thinking... I think Syria will likely be getting ex Russian S-300 systems are they are withdrawn from service and replaced by S-400 and S-350... and I rather suspect some of those will also be offered to Iran as well.
To be clear I think Syria will be getting these systems for free... and it would not surprise me if they didn't do something similar for Iran if there was a chance to sell you an IADS to make them more useful.
I think Iran should be looking at A-50s at the very least and perhaps A-100s if they are for sale. Conversely they could easily approach the Russian Navy and say... you guys are working on EM cats for carriers to launch AEW or AWACS platforms... we want to make a land based version... lets build one together and share the costs... the plane we base it on we will also build as a short range airliner transport for civilian and military use and you guys could do the same to make these cheap... Iran could even make parts for the Russian planes and vice versa... Iran and Russia and the Ukraine were building the An-148 or something weren't they?
The same factories could be used to make this aircraft, though the land based model can be simpler and cheaper as it wont need folding wings or tail hooks...
Cheap light transport aircraft are useful and could replace aircraft in the An-26 and An-32 class... it could be a turboprop or a turbofan.
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