The Situation in the Ukraine. #13

PapaDragon wrote:Maybe if Nazis get even more power in the Kiev, passive, submissive excuse for population in Ukraine might actually get off their asses. If not who cares, economy will finish them all off anyway...

That's actually a good point. Kiev is caught between the Nazi symphathizers and its population. If it gives too much power to the fascist movement the population will rage, if it doesn't then the same Nazi scum will revolt against the president. They screwed themselves and I don't feel bad as they dug their own downfall with this crap.

Khepesh wrote:
I think it is yet more heavy "trolling" but situation at Gorlovka looks to be getting worse. It's possible they may spring a surprise here by cutting between Gorlovka and Donetsk, or making it seem they are attempting to. Then when attention is diverted they roll in the south. I think the days of them being stupid always and everywhere are fading and there could be a critical situation to control. My thinking is if the south scenario occurs, is that ukrops have to attack somewhere to create a diversion, but simply pounding VSN positions along the northern front will not be sufficient, they have to do something big, something that looks like a realistic and dangerous assault. I don't think the front along the Donets is suitable, but I don't count it out as that would replicate errors allies made about the Ardennes, twice in one war.... An attack towards Lugansk is unlikely due to ukrops fears of a sudden north wind, more so here than Novoazovsk, IMO. Between Donetsk and Gorlovka is the only really suitable area, and the obvious one, but at times the obvious is the option needed. They won't succeed, or should not succeed, but it would be sufficient to attract everybodies attention, and it certainly will, and if strategic reserve have to engage in force, which is likely, then even if an attack in the south is expected and planned for, having the reserve, or a large part of it, engaged north east of Donetsk will be a green light for major southern offensive. Like you say, ukrops have to have some success soon or morale will collapse, and they need to win the war and they know it will have to be won on the battle field.

IMO, Ukraine's goal is to inflict such casualties upon the enemy that their public will demand peace. Territorial gains are only secondary.

Funnily enough, russia also places more importance over destroying ukrainian army than capturing more land. The simple fact is that ukraine is just too large for the forces involved

Can't fathom it.

Russia wants to expose Ukrainian GOV incompetency and turn their military against them.
If that happens military coup will end Ukrainian ambitions ever joining NATO for ever.
The problem is real JUNTA could go all in and Crimea would be their target. And for Russia it would be green light to actually show what Russian army could do in Ukraine. It wouldn't be few upgraded T-72, but it would tank brigades full of tanks that are superior than Ukrainian ones, there would be proper command structure, tactical weapons would be used, SEAD, bombing, massive artillery strikes when pieces of artillery working would be more numerous than targets. The question then would be how far would Russia go and what kind of song Europe will sing.

ITT: AH in the making...

higurashihougi wrote:Can't fathom it.

Partly free means that they are referring to Crimea Don't You agree?

higurashihougi wrote:Can't fathom it.

At least they know their master.

etaepsilonk wrote:IMO, Ukraine's goal is to inflict such casualties upon the enemy that their public will demand peace. Territorial gains are only secondary.

Since the beginning Kiev's objective has been, is and will be to destroy any opposition that can challenge it's newly found power.

Good posts.

Even my non-military, not-exactly-up-to-speed-self, has thought because of all the increased demonizing of Russia on twitter, that an attack will happen by Kiev government Armed Forces against Eastern Ukraine.

higurashihougi wrote:Can't fathom it.

It's crazy.

Regular wrote:Russia wants to expose Ukrainian GOV incompetency and turn their military against them.
If that happens military coup will end Ukrainian ambitions ever joining NATO for ever.
The problem is real JUNTA could go all in and Crimea would be their target. And for Russia it would be green light to actually show what Russian army could do in Ukraine. It wouldn't be few upgraded T-72, but it would tank brigades full of tanks that are superior than Ukrainian ones, there would be proper command structure, tactical weapons would be used, SEAD, bombing, massive artillery strikes when pieces of artillery working would be more numerous than targets. The question then would be how far would Russia go and what kind of song Europe will sing.

Military coup in the Ukraine? A real Junta?

As someone on that other forum said, Ukrainian generals can't even order their wives to make em a sandwich; WTH would they get the authority to command a nation?
This isn't some South American nation where the officer class is looked upon as a respected elite

3rd Ukraine thread . i guess it will stretch much longer .

etaepsilonk wrote:
IMO, Ukraine's goal is to inflict such casualties upon the enemy that their public will demand peace. Territorial gains are only secondary.

Only casualties Ukraine has been able to inflict so far are those against civilians and, even better, against their own armed forces (UAF, since you haven't been paying attention)

etaepsilonk wrote:
Funnily enough, russia also places more importance over destroying ukrainian army than capturing more land. The simple fact is that ukraine is just too large for the forces involved

 

If you want to see what real RussiaVsUkraine situation would look like go watch first hour of movie "Independence Day". Spoiler warning: Aliens=Russians

NAF repelled UAF attack on Shirokino:

http://lenta.ru/news/2015/05/04/maneuver/

Machine translation:

The DNR told about an unsuccessful attack by the Ukrainian military Shirokino


Photo: Anatoly Zhdanov / "Kommersant"
The shelling of Donetsk on the night of May 3 Ukrainian siloviki used to divert attention from attempts to break through to the Novoazovsk. This Donetsk news agency said the commander of the Republican Guard DNI Ivan Kondrashov.

"At the time of the attack on the Donetsk on the night of May 3 at the same time the operation was launched on the APU a breakthrough Shirokino. Fifteen hundred infantrymen with D-30 howitzers and 152 mm mortars attacked the troops in order to promote the DNI to Novoazovsk "- said the commander.

According to him, despite a tenfold advantage of the enemy militias managed to repel the attack. "Soldiers of the DNI protection used only small arms," - said Kondrashov. He said that the enemy suffered significant losses, without specifying the number.

Earlier, Defense Ministry spokesman Eduard Basurin DNI said that to strike in Donetsk Ukrainian security forces on May 2 Avdiyivka brought in heavy artillery, and disperse it in firing positions along the front line at a distance of 6-8 kilometers. During the day, this technique is carefully masked.

On Monday, May 4 reported that the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is not going to withdraw its troops from Shirokino. As the deputy head of the ATO (anti-terrorist operation, officially referred to military operations in the east of the country) in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions Sergey Galushko daily security forces capture 60 attacks by militias. In such circumstances, he said, the reduction of staff can not speak.

3 May, it became known that the battalion of special purpose "Donbass" put into Shirokino additional military units.

On the night of May 3 the Kiev region of Donetsk has undergone intensive shelling from positions in Ukrainian security services of experienced and Avdeevka. Reported hundred unexploded ordnance. As a result, seven civilians were wounded, one militiaman was killed. There were also damaged about two dozen houses and a school building.

Since mid-February 2015 in the combat zone in the Donbass formal ceasefire regime. Truce was one of the points of the Minsk Agreement. In spite of this militia and the Ukrainian security officials periodically accuse each other of shelling.

Shirokino - town, where the line of contact. They saved the most intense confrontation between the militia and the security forces in the direction of Mariupol.

PapaDragon wrote:
If you want to see what real RussiaVsUkraine situation would look like go watch first hour of movie "Independence Day". Spoiler warning: Aliens=Russians

Your comparison is incorrect, all aliens were sober

etaepsilonk wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:
If you want to see what real RussiaVsUkraine situation would look like go watch first hour of movie "Independence Day". Spoiler warning: Aliens=Russians

Your comparison is incorrect, all aliens were sober

A better comparison of Russia versus Ukraine is Saudi Arabia versus Yemen, a technologically advanced army versus a technologically obsolete army

Ukraine's obsolete 1980s basic S-300 air defense systems and Su-27 fighter jets are no match for Russian air force Su-35 fighter jets and Su-34 strike planes.

[quote]

etaepsilonk wrote:IMO, Ukraine's goal is to inflict such casualties upon the enemy that their public will demand peace. Territorial gains are only secondary.

This has to be the most stupid idea ever. So Ukraine a country that is currently a dead corpse in lieu of state, is going to inflict casualties so that would be unbearable to who? The "Republics"? Are you by any chance a former MP.net member? This "peace through bodycount" narrative, I have already heard, in a MP.net thread over...Viet Nam, Afghanistan etc...

It doesn't work because be it VIet Nam, Afghanistan or even the Republics, don't operate out of a Vacuum. They have backers. In this case it is Russia. Hell will long be frozen before Russia is beaten by Ukraine in an attrition battle.

Then off course, we can also become more logical and see that this is low quality trolling, that amounts to describing the Ukrainian strategy as attempting to produce an humanitarian catastrophe wich falls within some of the guidelines issued by the UN to identify a genocidary action. More to the point, the distinct aiming at civillian utilities in order to disrupt normal course of life with the intention to render unhospitable the area of target is typically forbidden.

Rome Charter. wrote: a) Killing members of the group;
(b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
(c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
(d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
(e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.

So yeah basically European Values.

It's Springtime! Everything is green. Have Spring rains already started?

Donetsk Public electricians working to repair damage caused by recent shelling

KoTeMoRe wrote:

etaepsilonk wrote:IMO, Ukraine's goal is to inflict such casualties upon the enemy that their public will demand peace. Territorial gains are only secondary.

This has to be the most stupid idea ever. So Ukraine a country that is currently a dead corpse in lieu of state, is going to inflict casualties so that would be unbearable to who? The "Republics"? Are  you by any chance a former MP.net member? This "peace through bodycount" narrative, I have already heard, in a MP.net thread over...Viet Nam, Afghanistan etc...

It doesn't work because be it VIet Nam, Afghanistan or even the Republics, don't operate out of a Vacuum. They have backers. In this case it is Russia. Hell will long be frozen before Russia is beaten by Ukraine in an attrition battle.

Then off course, we can also become more logical and see that this is low quality trolling, that amounts to describing the Ukrainian strategy as attempting to produce an humanitarian catastrophe wich falls within some of the guidelines issued by the UN to identify a genocidary action. More to the point, the distinct aiming at civillian utilities in order to disrupt normal course of life with the intention to render unhospitable the area of target is typically forbidden.

Rome Charter. wrote: a) Killing members of the group;
(b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
(c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
(d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
(e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.

So yeah basically European Values.

If ukraine needs to follow the rules of some charters, maybe the beloved russia should too?
Of course, you can't bring back all the innocent people tortured to death by "liberators from fascism", but upholding budapest agreement respecting ukraine's integrity should be a pretty good start.

Empty Donetsk shop was destroyed by hits art. shells Ukr. army. According to local residents.

etaepsilonk wrote:Of course, you can't bring back all the innocent people tortured to death by "liberators from fascism", but upholding budapest agreement respecting ukraine's integrity should be a pretty good start.

Ukraine's integrity was violated as soon as Western countries decided to meddle in its business (like handing out freedom cookies on Maidan square) by financing revolutionary elements within the country. I mean, it's not like Joe Biden sitting in the presidential seat was a dead giveaway or anything. /sarcasm

I understand it's difficult for people like you to see but that's the way it is.

Ghoster wrote:

auslander wrote:The situation from Mariupol north to the mouth of the old Debaltsyevo Pocket is deteriorating rapidly. Bombardments by UAF are increasing daily and again last night and through dawn today Donetsk, Gorlovka and several other locals all the way down to the Azov were hit with artillery, both tube and rocket. Both civilian and NAF casualties are mounting. All the while UAF is protesting vehemently that they are the victims of the bombardments and we are back to the old song of UAF stating that they are not in control of some of the units technically under their command.

Be prepared today for US DoS accusations of RF not implementing the Minsk 2 accords and NAF attacking. Be prepared for more sanctions against RF in the near future.

OSCE are daily being increasingly shown in their true colours, to whit, useless.

Communications are still not viable with our Gorlovka contact although the commo system is still extant. We are attempting to have physical contact established with the contact but at this moment that is not possible. We are using secondary for Gorlovka and primary for Donetsk environs. Commo with Novoasovsk is no problem.

We will have precious little time this week to keep everyone up to speed of our informations but we will do our best to communicate what we find.

Thanks for the update, auslander.

A journalist staying in Donetsk made a few videos about the damage to the residential area on the night of 2nd of May.

^^^ What kind of shell/ military hardware made that big hole in the apt???

Patrick Lancaster has posted more videos, & I'm just trying to not repeat what's already been posted.

etaepsilonk wrote:If ukraine needs to follow the rules of some charters, maybe the beloved russia should too?
Of course, you can't bring back all the innocent people tortured to death by "liberators from fascism", but upholding budapest agreement respecting ukraine's integrity should be a pretty good start.

Sorry Sir, that train left the station ever since Kosovo...and ain't coming back anytime soon.
We now offer INDEPENDENT rides, not connected to any international laws and governance.
If you feel strongly that International Law should return, please fill-in this form which petitions the United States to reverse all decisions and actions that defy said law.
Glad to have you on board though Sir, because we're in for one helluva ride!

Now you know what PRECEDENT is, and why it's such a big thing with lawyers...

(please have some freedom fries on your way out...Murica...fcuk yeah!!!)

etaepsilonk wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

etaepsilonk wrote:IMO, Ukraine's goal is to inflict such casualties upon the enemy that their public will demand peace. Territorial gains are only secondary.

This has to be the most stupid idea ever. So Ukraine a country that is currently a dead corpse in lieu of state, is going to inflict casualties so that would be unbearable to who? The "Republics"? Are  you by any chance a former MP.net member? This "peace through bodycount" narrative, I have already heard, in a MP.net thread over...Viet Nam, Afghanistan etc...

It doesn't work because be it VIet Nam, Afghanistan or even the Republics, don't operate out of a Vacuum. They have backers. In this case it is Russia. Hell will long be frozen before Russia is beaten by Ukraine in an attrition battle.

Then off course, we can also become more logical and see that this is low quality trolling, that amounts to describing the Ukrainian strategy as attempting to produce an humanitarian catastrophe wich falls within some of the guidelines issued by the UN to identify a genocidary action. More to the point, the distinct aiming at civillian utilities in order to disrupt normal course of life with the intention to render unhospitable the area of target is typically forbidden.

Rome Charter. wrote: a) Killing members of the group;
(b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
(c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
(d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
(e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.

So yeah basically European Values.

If ukraine needs to follow the rules of some charters, maybe the beloved russia should too?
Of course, you can't bring back all the innocent people tortured to death by "liberators from fascism", but upholding budapest agreement respecting ukraine's integrity should be a pretty good start.

Those liberators from fascism are protecting the locals, not torturing them

Yes I know, I know, the Amnesty International and HRW reports.

Meanwhile we have dozens of actual videos worth of footage, of unarmed locals resisting the Ukrainian army, locals supporting the militia, militiamen proffessing themselves to be locals and recounting their past lives, all sorts of atrocities and crimes by the Ukrainian side, artillery strikes on innocents with the innocents claiming that the Ukrainians are responsible, torture of prisoners, etc...

I'll believe the line about the militia being Russian invaders, occupiers and unwelcome for the local population, mostly or wholy Russian citizens, torturers, terrorists, etc... when I actually see evidence of it.

Ukraine made it's own bed in regards to its integrity; as did Georgia, various other post-Soviet countries, and indeed the Soviet Union itself did in 1989-1991.
Perhaps if it didn't decide to trample on the millions of votes and voices from the East, didn't violently throw out the elected preisdent who had near unanimous support in the Crimea, didn't start with nationalist hysteria and beatings of Party of Regions and Communist deputies in the Rada, etc... then Crimea might not have elected to secede and Russia wouldn't have decided to intervene.
Perhaps if the Ukrainian government then didn't decide to deal with the protest movement with political repression and arrests, seize control over all the media, use Neo-Nazi hooligans to violently scatter and bully protestors, and perhaps tried to negotiate first with the inevitable civil and then armed uprising that followed.. then the Ukraine wouldn't have lost the Donbass either.

When Gamsakhurdia of Georgia in 1991 or whenever it was - stated to his supporters that 'Ossetia is a lovely country - only w/o the Ossetians'... well - is it supposed to be any surprise today, to us - that Ossetia split away from Georgia?
Should one step in for its territorial integrity too? "It was all the evil Russians, you see"..
The American ambassador to Georgia, after meeting with Gamsakhurdia, promptly relayed to his government his dismay over this man's ideas, and declared him a nut that should not be supported.

Yet here we are with Kiev, in 2015; using the same sort of language, the same sort of tactics - yet now it's supported.
Yet now, it's the victim, and its 'territorial integrity is threatened'
Yet now, it's not fighting against its own people, it's fighting against a Russian invasion.
Bullshit

What will it lose next? Dunno, it's up to them and their decisions really. What I've seen so far gives me no grounds for optimism and I see it as very likely that the Ukrainian government will provoke or restart the war, make more mistakes, and ultimately destroy itself and break apart its own country even further.

"What kind of shell/ military hardware made that big hole in the apt???"

Hard to say. From the looks of it whatever it was did not explode but knocked a fair sized hole in the wall. A lot of the determination of the size of the round would depend on the age and original quality of the wall. It is conceivable that a round as 'small' as 5 cm could to such a hole, but in all probability it was rather lager.

Still and all, the bombardments of patently civilian areas and infrastructure would beg the question of when is Ukraine going to do the first thing to implement the Minsk 2 protocols?