Evolution of Eastern Ukraine War: Options and Outcomes

The main goal of the Kremlin is to blackmail the new American administration and the EU countries. Putin will speculate with the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, says political scientist Ivan Preobrazhensky. Will the situation come to a large-scale military invasion? Should we expect a really tough reaction from Western countries?

Just ridiculous.... Russia is moving troops to the border because the Ukraine is mobilising conscripts and sending them forward into front line positions.... the Kremlin is hardly blackmailing anyone, they are reacting to morons... and the supporters of those morons are claiming it is all about Russian aggression... peaceful Kiev is not doing anything and big bad Russia is building up forces on land and at sea and threatening the peace and utopia that is the Ukraine, while violating Ukranian territory in the form of Russian troops in the Crimea.

Who cares what reaction the west decides to go with... when Ukrainian troops are moving to front positions then Russia.... being a neighbour is obliged to do the same... just in case Kiev does something stupid like the Tie Eater of Georgia did 13 odd years ago. He thought he was protected by the west and under cover of the olympic games too...

Didn't work out then and wont likely work out now, but that wont stop Kiev from doing something stupid and the west complaining about Russian over reactions to countries murdering people.

Why did Moscow take Crimea before those 2 Mistral UDKs were handed over to her?

Moscow allowed the Crimea to join the Russian federation when the Crimea voted to join. The orders for Mistral class ships, or north stream II gas pipelines have nothing to do with it. It is the west that ties all sorts of other shit to things.

I am certain the Western sponsored coup in Ukraine and the threat of Sevastopol becoming a NATO naval base had nothing to do with it.

In Russian law making the Crimea part of the Russian Federation gave Russia the right to use force to defend them from anyone trying to take them by force.

Such protection is worth 1,000 Mistral ships.

Besides... they got a damn good look at them inside and out and are now building their own replacements... and they got their money back and are making money selling components and helicopters to Egypt.

In this case it would again force Moscow's hand along with whatever 'blackmail' of Europe, and Nord Stream 2 would certainly become a victim of that new situation.

But the west... US and EU... don't realise that the destruction of the NS II project is a win for Russia anyway... it is not critical to Russias economy that Germany and Europe get cheap reliable gas supplies.... I am sure a driving aspect of the NS II is to be able to pipe gas to Kaliningrad without it having to go through the Ukraine.

An end to NS II means they could just complete the pipes to Kaliningrad so that Russian territory gets cheap gas without needing transit fees paid to any other country, and the EU can just hope the Ukraine does not do anything silly like cut gas supply or steal gas.

Russia has spent billions trying to get them safe reliable pipes to supply their gas and the EU and US have sabotaged it at every step.

The EU can pay LNG rates, which slows down delivery and massively increases costs, but it does mean Russia could then send that gas to the highest bidder with no fixed contracts practical.

The EU is going to have to spend a lot more on gas energy, but I am sure their greenies will be happy about that.

This new attack would repeat the Mistral scandal, but then the Russians didn't really suffer much from that... by now they would have two Mistrals in service but not enough frigates and destroyers to escort them... by 2022 they will probably have ordered their third and fourth ships, but those wont be happening now.

A huge delay but I don't think they would suffer from not having these ships in service right now, though the experience would be useful, it is not the end of the world.

Starting a conflict and going super sanction on Russia would be another blessing in disguise... it means Russia will earn more for gas sales to the EU and the EU will pay more for energy... it might be enough of a jolt for them to question why they do as the US tells them and that maybe HATO gets them into more trouble than it actually gets them out of... but no one can tell them that sort of thing... they have to work it out for themselves.

Not having their eurobitches in tow on everything might be a bit of a shock to the US too... maybe we need this to happen to create the multipolar world where the EU stops being USA-B team and starts thinking and acting for itself... or maybe they are suffering post colonial power trip syndrome and want their kids to look after them till they die.

Russia may use a false flag provocation & invade; in any case, this is the beginning of the end of the status quo.
Time will tell how it plays out.

Russia does not benefit in a conflict, it creates enormous risks with very little in the way of potential to gain for Russia.

That does not matter to the west.... they will fuck over a country just for fun to see what happens.

This is Ukraines desparate gamble to kill Nord Stream 2 and its cash cow of transit fees.

Which suggests the obvious solution of the Russians stating that any conflict starts up in the Ukraine and Russia will deem it an unsafe transit country and stop all transfers of gas and all transit payments will cease... and contracts with aggressor states will become null and void.

With NS2 in place Russia can demand Ukraine pay its gas bill or cut them off.

Not really... unless the south pipes and north pipes operate at full capacity they can't cut off the Ukraine pipes very easily.

It is 50 and 30 for the new north and south pipes while the ukraine is something like 180, and demand is growing.

Shutting down transit of gas through the Ukraine is not a good solution for Russia.... remember it is the EU that pays the transit fees.... not Russia.

Dunno why they don't start exploit them. They have over 1T cubic m of natural gas. If they stopped dicking around with some fantasy of Russia giving Crimea back and end their civil war they can get on with life.

They expect mother to solve their problems... even after leaving home and claiming to be adopted...

It's about to get a finished pipeline that will bring in tons more money and enable them to cut off Kiev's chief income source further deepening its woes, all without firing a shot.

Honestly if the Ukraine don't play silly buggers with their pipeline there is no need to cut them off. They make money on the gas going past them, but Russia makes more money and the EU are paying the bill.

to stop Kiev's further integration into NATO

They are already a sort of part of HATO, there are HATO troops there and it is only a matter of time before HATO bases are set up.

In time of conflict they would be sitting ducks and destroyed in hours, so their existence would be meaningless.

improve Crimea's water supply,

They are working on permanent solutions there already.

lift the siege of Russian troops in Transnistria,

How far are you expecting them to go?

If they want to do all that then when Georgia invaded South Ossetia then why didn't Russian forces over run all of Georgia down to Armenia and NK and solve that problem too while they were there?

cut off Ukraine from the Black/Azov Seas, cut off Turkey from Ukraine,

No benefit for Russia there... the Ukraine is a basket case... cutting off their legs will only create more problems for Russia in the future.

Besides why would all these people accept Russian rule, they don't seem to be asking for it and who is going to pay for their cities and infrastructure to be fixed and upgraded?

The EU and US broke it... let them pay such bills.

increase RF population,

Create hostile population inside the RF... no thanks.

seize ports/shipyards/airports/bases, the Kharkov tank plant, & Kiev Antonov plant.

Broken worn out useless... would cost more to bring up to ordinary than to flatten them and build new ones from scratch... and building new ports and production facilities in Russia is vastly more cost effective and productive.

“Everything suggests that Russia is preparing for a military incursion into Ukraine,” tweeted Sunday Anders Aslund, author of the book Russia's Crony Capitalism. “Putin always keeps his options open, but both the military moves & the Kremlin propaganda indicate that Russian military aggression is near,” he added.

Well if Aslund says it is true... who am I to argue with the fictional lion king in the Narnia books....

Can you even join NATO if you are in a state of active war?

They wont say because the true answer might stop him doing something stupid that is in HATOs interests but no one elses.

no, but US uses NATO to help Ukraine against RF, & uses Ukraine to weaken & destabilize Russia, as well as its airspace to spy on her.

Except Russia isn't destabilised, or weakened... they are happy to move their forces within their own territory to deal with anything Kiev could manage...

Russia could be a very useful ally around the world to the US and EU, but they choose instead to make them an enemy... Putin can't stop them doing that but he can be the best enemy they ever had by not falling for their obvious provocations, and kicking them in the balls nice and hard every time they are stupid enough to present them.

If he wasn't any good at that they wouldn't hate him the way they do.

Ukraine doesn't need to join NATO, & her military can be trained & equipped along the NATO lines, like Georgia's, so her troops could be sent to help NATO anywhere.

Which they are... and the benefits of being able to fight and die in Afghanistan or some other shit hole, but without any protections or perks offered by membership...

they r still building /repairing boats for the Ukr. Navy, so taking them will stop that & BSF boats could at least be repaired there too.

The Ukrainian Navy is a token force that is no threat to anyone... except itself.

so that the Ukr. Army won't have access to it & the tanks there now.

It would be easier to target and kill three Ukrainian soldiers in a T-64 than try to locate them as individuals on the battlefield and shoot them.

at least taking it would deny the UkrAF repair & production of aircraft. 3 AN-178s r being built there now.

Assuming they will be finished, they are no threat to Russia, and certainly not worth an invasion into hostile territory.

But why now, 2 months before Nord Stream 2 is finished

Obviously as you know, because this is not Putins war, it is HATOs last gasp attempt to stop NSII from being completed.

If it was Putins war he would obviously wait till NSII was finished and up and running.

Which of course, is more valuable than some dilapidated shipyards and factories

And the large hostile population you need to get on board with your occupation of their territory.

Kiev said it won't allow water supply until Crimea is returned; it'll cost $Bs on desalination plants, & there is not enough ground water already.

The infrastructure in most big cities cost billions of dollars... spending a billion dollars or more to ensure supply for fresh water for the next 100 years is peanuts... countries in the Middle East would be jealous how cheap that is.

the buildup will continue till May, then they'll exercise & decide what to do next, depending on the evolving situation. NATO won't fight for Ukraine & the EU needs Nord Stream 2, whether Ukraine & the US like it or not.

Which ignores the fact that the force build up started in the Ukraine first and Russian forces mobilised as a reaction so how the hell can it be Putins plan?

Ukraine lost 45 billion dollars over 10 years for losing Crimea just on rent for the base.

Bloody good of them to mistreat the local population and essentially hand it to Russia like that.

Are they about to make the same mistake again in the Donbass?

They are dumb enough.

To me it looks like they 've decided to liberate at least some of the Novorossiya before Ukrainian mil. gets stronger & closer to NATO.

Believing western propaganda sources to try to work out what Putin will or will not do is your most obvious mistake.

But on the whole I'm still quite convinced that Moscow wants to avoid a war, and avoid Kiev relaunching one most crucially. And all of this is just sabre rattling to that end.

It is the comedian that makes the final decision... if he makes a tie eater mistake the of course Putin will pounce... why would he not?

The Comedian agreed to solve the problems peacefully... if he uses force he breaks the Minks agreements... so Russia can do as it pleases, so why not do what is in its interests... push the Kiev forces back out of Donbass territory like they did in South Ossetia, but with a much more capable and better equipped and trained force, supporting a more capable and better equipped and trained force against idiots who thought HATO were going to save them.

Secure the territory and then organise a referendum for the local people to freely and fairly decide their own future, whether that is talk to Kiev, become independent, or join the Russian federation.... perhaps two referendums might be done... one immediately to decide whether to sever ties with the Ukraine and whether to open trade and relations with the RF.... and then in a couple of years time whether to join the RF or remain separate.