Evolution of Eastern Ukraine War: Options and Outcomes

They have combat use in the Azov Sea, otherwise a few other artillery boats wouldn't have been transferred & stayed there earlier.
Also they would be useful in the Dnieper, Dniester & Danube estuaries.

flamming_python wrote:...All excellent reasons of course

But why now, 2 months before Nord Stream 2 is finished

Which of course, is more valuable than some dilapidated shipyards and factories

Russia has no need for anything in the Ukraine other than keeping them in flux and useless AKA harmless

And it is working, 404s blinked they just haven't made it official (or will) plus Sloppy Joe just called and wants to talk

They have no chance of doing anything, USA will not come to save their asses and it became clear to them

Even if 404s somehow got their entire military super high on Angel Dust and somehow cracked through NAF in some Banzai charge they are still perfectly aware of full size Exterminatus that Russia has lined up across the border ready to annihilate them on a moment's notice

Russia can wipe them out of existence with air-force alone, again remember Syria? That was all done with just 30 AIRCRAFT

30 planes for the whole Syrian campaign, can you even imagine what will they do to Ukrops with way more than 30 right next door?

Everyone knows the score, 404s more than anyone else despite their tough guy bullshit

So why has the Ukranian war continued? Its pretty easy to explain. After all the Minsk agreements exist and seem to have been endorsed by the Germany and France right? So why has it not been implemented. So lets say the comedian completely implements Minsk. Donbass is a semi-autonomus region. Ukraine becomes a quasi federation. What is the population of Donbass?  - 4m. What the population of Ukraine 44m. Which region gets to choose the govt and will it be pro western or pro Moscow. If you were in the Donbass, would you vote for some clowns that want to stop you from using the language you grew up with ? Who sent the army to kill your sons and blow up your villages? They will vote for a Moscow leaning candidate, no question. Somehow they wanna keep the Donbass, but not the people or change them to pro-western.. lol. Its an effin impossible situation that deserves to fail. Sadly the regular people die and suffer while the dark comedy continues.

The RF complains about NATO getting so close to its borders, particularly in Poland, why she should turn a blind eye on it staring at her from across the Ukrainian border?

You have answered your own question... when HATO moves in to Poland, Russia reinforces Kaliningrad and located Iskander missiles there likely with nuclear warheads.

HATO moving into the Ukraine, Russia will likely start producing IRCMs and IRBMs to target the infrastructure of HATO so any attack launched from the Ukraine border can be responded to very quickly by a nuclear strike on Brussels and the HATO headquarters.

w/o success since 2014; will it take another 7 years?

Does it matter... I wouldn't trust the Orcs if they reopened the water flow.... I would be checking it for poison and diseases and other dirty tricks so there really is no alternative to solving the problem themselves.

Part of the solution it to adapt... for instance growing rice is probably not a good crop to go for...

There is agriculture there and tourism... such industries make water supply pretty much a priority and worth spending money on.

they'll go as far as the circumstance allow. Unlike Georgia & Armenia, which r boxed in now, Ukraine is the strategic & crop producing real estate with large Russian speaking population.

It is a Ukrainian land of people turned against Russia, and there is plenty of arable land in Russia that could do with investment and development... let America and the EU fix what they broke.

no, more problems will be created by letting Ukraine be used by the West & Turkey .

If the Ukraine wants to keep bashing its head against a brick wall, Russia is under no obligation to try to put a pillow between their head and the brick.

Try to help them and they are as likely to lash out and attack Russia... just leave them to it.

they'll get autonomy & those not happy can leave to W. Ukraine or elsewhere, just like those in Crimea.

You make it sound so simple... so why didn't all those people in the donbass and other areas who want to keep speaking Russian not just up and leave and go to Russia? Perhaps people don't want to leave...

Perhaps they think it is their country and they should be allowed to do as they please in there own country and speaking Russian isn't hurting anyone.

Ms of people would still go to Russia for work & send $ to their folks back home.

So Russia keeps supporting the coma patient... I am sure Kiev would come up with an 80% tax on any earnings earned in Russia sent back to the Ukraine to punish those Russian speaking traitors to the Ukraine...

they will arm those boats with AshMs that can't be ignored.

You were in the navy... even if they had Onyx and Zircon their only value would be handing them over to the Americans for testing... they don't have the C4IR to use them before getting obliterated first.

Also, there is a huge arsenal at Kramatorsk that is worth taking; also 100s of tanks, etc. & the plant r worth $Ms, even if they r not all repaired & scrapped instead. An-178s can carry armed troops & vehicles; they could also be used as bombers.

Their value would be their scrap metal value and two or three An-178s would be museum pieces as they are designed to have Ukrainian parts, not Russian ones, so nothing would be compatible with anything the Russians have... they would be like those American Humvees captured in Georgia... display pieces... and not worth the effort of invading the Ukraine to get them.

Sadly the regular people die and suffer while the dark comedy continues.

Same as Georgia in 2008, they want the land but don't want the people who currently occupy it.

A bit like a slum lord wanting to kick tennants out of low rent rent controlled apartments so they can know the building, clear the land and put up studio apartments and charge $2,000 per week rent per apartment.

HATO moving into the Ukraine, Russia will likely start producing IRCMs and IRBMs to target the infrastructure of HATO so any attack launched from the Ukraine border can be responded to very quickly by a nuclear strike on Brussels and the HATO headquarters.

invoking the article 5, bringing US, UK & French nukes above Russian heads. Better take that ground like the USSR did with S. Finland, E. Poland & W. Ukraine in 1938-9 which bought them a few weeks in 1941 to organize the defense of Leningrad & Moscow.

Does it matter... I wouldn't trust the Orcs if they reopened the water flow.... I would be checking it for poison and diseases and other dirty tricks so there really is no alternative to solving the problem themselves.

that water would be treated anyway; Russia won't take all of Ukraine at once & the Dnieper is a long river.

There is agriculture there and tourism... such industries make water supply pretty much a priority and worth spending money on.

Why ration water, spend extra $Ms if they can have it for free after taking the land around the river?

It is a Ukrainian land of people turned against Russia, and there is plenty of arable land in Russia that could do with investment and development... let America and the EU fix what they broke.

they r not going to turn their back on 8M of ethnic Russians & other Russian speakers & the best arable land & climate there. don't imagine u know how they think.

Try to help them and they are as likely to lash out and attack Russia... just leave them to it.

with Russia's help, the Galicians can all go back to their original homeland; the rest will be happy to stop speaking an imposed dialect & be left alone.

Perhaps people don't want to leave...

then they'll have to suck it in. It the same in any other big country with ethnic/racial minorities.

I am sure Kiev would come up with an 80% tax on any earnings earned in Russia sent back to the Ukraine to punish those Russian speaking traitors to the Ukraine...

no, the liberated Novorossians out of work would go elswhere to earning & send $ back.

..they don't have the C4IR to use them before getting obliterated first.

then NATO will provide the C4IR to them.

Their value would be their scrap metal value and two or three An-178s would be museum pieces as they are designed to have Ukrainian parts, not Russian ones, so nothing would be compatible with anything the Russians have...

I'm sure many tanks & BMPs there could be repaired & used/sold, but the main thing isn't their value to Russia, but to deny the Ukr. mil. access to them.
According to NATO standards: how the modernization of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Why does Putin need a war in Ukraine and what does Zelensky's "matchmakers" have to do with it

What is happening in Donbass: will there be a big war, does Putin need it and how the West will support Ukraine

Nikolai Starikov: aggravation in Donbass - when will the war start?

Illarionov told Gordon when and where Russia will attack Ukraine

Prior to WW2 the Soviet Union pushed its borders so Moscow was outside the range of conventional artillery.
If you wanted to do the same versus rockets today how far away would you have to push the borders?
There is no point for Russia to annex these places.

At least it would keep B-1B/52s from flying where they never flew before & eliminate 1 hostile navy from the Azov & Black Seas.
Wars r not won by aircraft, missiles & ships alone; if ground troops have more ground to cover, better for the defenders.

I use different levels of analysis to compartmentalize big problems into different issues, from all points of view. Putin has his role to fulfill, but that doesn't mean that his rule is w/o a lot to be desired.
The coming RF-Ukraine war is beneficial to the US as it would prevent the EU from getting too close to Russia & by extension China, thus preserving the US leading & dominating role in the West.

invoking the article 5, bringing US, UK & French nukes above Russian heads. Better take that ground like the USSR did with S. Finland, E. Poland & W. Ukraine in 1938-9 which bought them a few weeks in 1941 to organize the defense of Leningrad & Moscow.

Article five does not apply to protect a HATO member that attacks another country first.

that water would be treated anyway; Russia won't take all of Ukraine at once & the Dnieper is a long river .

Get over it. They don't want it.

It is a broken country, it has no value to anyone.

Why ration water, spend extra $Ms if they can have it for free after taking the land around the river?

Because it would not be free. All the current sanctions on the Crimea with the citizens of Crimea voting to become part of the Russian Federation... they would have a shit fit over Russia seizing land by force from people who don't necessarily want to be part of the Russian Federation.

It is not worth it on any level.

they r not going to turn their back on 8M of ethnic Russians & other Russian speakers & the best arable land & climate there. don't imagine u know how they think.

Putin has said he will stop Kiev forces from murdering them, but he has made no promises about allowing anyone to join the Russian Federation.

with Russia's help, the Galicians can all go back to their original homeland; the rest will be happy to stop speaking an imposed dialect & be left alone.

Not Russias problem.

then NATO will provide the C4IR to them.

How far could they possibly get even with direct HATO support?

I'm sure many tanks & BMPs there could be repaired & used/sold, but the main thing isn't their value to Russia, but to deny the Ukr. mil. access to them.

Would be easier to kill Ukrainian soldiers in armoured vehicles than have to chase them down and kill them individually.

From more recent reports I think the chance of war has diminished...

At least it would keep B-1B/52s from flying where they never flew before & eliminate 1 hostile navy from the Azov & Black Seas.
Wars r not won by aircraft, missiles & ships alone; if ground troops have more ground to cover, better for the defenders.

HATO having forces in the Ukraine would not effect Russian safety or defence in the slightest... it would just warrant a large increase in tactical nuclear weapons...

And until people in Odessa, Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk and so on finally say enough is enough, define their enemy, and that that enemy sits in Kiev - their long-term prospects will continue to deteriorate.

All very well put and accurate FP... thank you for posting.

If you want Russia to save you, you have to start by saving yourself and recognising there is a problem and the problem is not Putin or Russia... the problem is the US infection in the Ukraine. The Ukraines future might be with the EU or it might be with Russia, but it can never be with the US because they will only ever use you as a tool against Russia, which like the US trying to use India against China is really not in your interests.

The US will get you into fights and seem to back you but not care when you are injured.

In comparison Russia and China will offer to help you grow and develop with them... that is what multipolar means... the BRICS is not to replace the US and the west... the purpose of BRICS is for big countries with potential to trade and work together against the insidious rot that is the west... to grow and trade and help each other instead of dragging those around you under to get your own head higher out of the mud. If you work together as a team you all get out of the mud.

The coming RF-Ukraine war is beneficial to the US as it would prevent the EU from getting too close to Russia & China, thus preserving the US its leading role in the West.

The US and HATO is not backing Kiev up, so I rather suspect there will be no war...

https://www.rt.com/russia/521108-putin-biden-meeting-cancelled/

Article five does not apply to protect a HATO member that attacks another country first.

not after NATO HQ is vaporized!

Get over it. They don't want it.
It is a broken country, it has no value to anyone.

Prussia was broken to; now it's Kaliningrad Region. The Russians can fix it.

..they would have a shit fit over Russia seizing land by force from people who don't necessarily want to be part of the Russian Federation.

losing Ukraine forever would cost them a lot more in the long run, making Moscow & C/S. Russia vulnerable. It would cost $Ts to move the capital to Urals or Siberia, even if it was possible.

Putin has said he will stop Kiev forces from murdering them, but he has made no promises about allowing anyone to join the Russian Federation.

many in S. Ossetia had RF passports before 2008; now 40K have them in rebel Donbass. Both r de-facto part Rrussia now.

Would be easier to kill Ukrainian soldiers in armoured vehicles than have to chase them down and kill them individually.

why not save ammo & prevent them firing a single shot?

From more recent reports I think the chance of war has diminished...

if true, it's calm before the storm.

HATO having forces in the Ukraine would not effect Russian safety or defence in the slightest... it would just warrant a large increase in tactical nuclear weapons...

a perceived threat= real threat in their minds. They would rather fight in Ukraine than in Russia itself. In ur part of the world, after the French started being active in the Indian Ocean, The Brits quickly moved to secure W. Australia. Otherwise, it would still be divided like New Guinea is into Indonesia & PNG or Hispaniola is into Haiti & Dominican Republic.

And until people in Odessa, Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk and so on finally say enough is enough, define their enemy, and that that enemy sits in Kiev - their long-term prospects will continue to deteriorate.

pretty soon they'll need to chose sides or leave.

The US and HATO is not backing Kiev up, so I rather suspect there will be no war...

if giving them training & $125M on arms isn't backing, I don't know what is.

not after NATO HQ is vaporized![/quote]

Getting vaporized yourself afterwards kind of defeats the point

that's why NATO will sit on the fence, like in Georgia & Syria.

Prussia was broken to; now it's Kaliningrad Region. The Russians can fix it.

By replacing the population?

yes, like they do partially in Crimea now.

many in S. Ossetia had RF passports before 2008; now 40K have them in rebel Donbass. Both r de-facto part Rrussia now.

key-word is de-facto, they have nowhere else to go anyway. No-one's going to make them part of Russia formally.

formalities don't matter in hybrid wars & their aftermath.

why not save ammo & prevent them firing a single shot?

Then Russia will have to fire the first shot.

either way, there were enough shots fired by the Ukr. side already;
the recent drone attack killed a Ukr. citizen in his kitchen & Russia can say that she'll be liberating them too from the Ukrainian Nazis, as they liberated Germans from Hitlerism in 1945.

if giving them training & $125M on arms isn't backing, I don't know what is.

They're certainly better armed by now than they were 7 years ago, and can pose a serious threat to the self-proclaimed republics if Russian support isn't forthcoming.

they r becoming a lot more of a threat to the RF mil. as well in 7 around Ukraine.
Russia blocks the Kerch Strait for six months for warships

It became known about the arrival of the Turkish military in Donbass

not after NATO HQ is vaporized!

If the attack order came from Kiev then Kiev gets nuked, but if the order came from Brussels, it is still self defence.

Prussia was broken to; now it's Kaliningrad Region. The Russians can fix it.

Kaliningrad is fine and does not need to be fixed.

losing Ukraine forever would cost them a lot more in the long run,

That ship has sailed, Ukraine is gone.

It would cost $Ts to move the capital to Urals or Siberia, even if it was possible.

The Russian capital being anywhere else would not make a lot of difference.

The US would not be safer in WWIII if their capital city was in Florida.

many in S. Ossetia had RF passports before 2008; now 40K have them in rebel Donbass. Both r de-facto part Rrussia now.

AFAIK South Ossetia has not and is not seeking to join the Russian Federation, and so far neither has any other part of the Ukraine except the Crimea.

why not save ammo & prevent them firing a single shot?

They will be firing shots as you invade and try to deny them access to those armoured vehicles and resources.

If you do not invade they have no reason to shoot.

if true, it's calm before the storm.

Creepy Joe is proving to be a doddery old fool.

Calls Putin a murderer with no soul and then asks him to show good faith and stand down his forces and then imposes sanctions and kicks 10 Russian diplomats out of the US.

What a dick... I am sure he will protect Ukraine...

a perceived threat= real threat in their minds.

A threat that can be eliminated with a few missiles...

pretty soon they'll need to chose sides or leave.

It has been a few years now and they have done neither... suspect more of the same...

if giving them training & $125M on arms isn't backing, I don't know what is.

Like Lend Lease... training and millions of dollars means squat when they are asking you to go naked into a cage of angry hungry lionesses....

Saying "go on... you will be fine" is not the sort of backing they need or want.

that's why NATO will sit on the fence, like in Georgia & Syria.

Makes you wonder why all those little weak countries were in such a rush to sign up...


Russia has built up its forces on its border just in case Kiev do something stupid... which is the most likely cause of conflict in the area.

Russia will not initiate conflict, though western media will never admit that, but Russia will finish any conflict.

The fact that the shelling and bullshit has been going on for 7 years makes me kinda hope Kiev is dumb enough to attack, but I know even a quick conflict will kill a lot of people on both sides... but then a few have died in the last 7 years too, so perhaps another conflict started by Kiev that actually leads to Russia getting directly involved this time to stop it, to force back the Orcs and to create stability and peace in the region and allow some referendums to allow the people to actually make decisions on what they want.

I would prefer them be given the choice to remain part of the Ukraine, or to become an autonomous region, or a separate state would be a good first step.

Let them remain what they are now... a self governed region with open trade borders with Russia, and see how they go... give them protection guarantees.... any wayward shells from the ORCS will lead to the gun and the unit firing the rounds being destroyed... even if they are firing from a chapel in a hospital... who gives a ****.

Once they are safe from shelling and are able to trade then they might be happy with that.

After 5 years it might be a good idea to examine the experience and decide if they want to join the Russian Federation, or just be a friendly neighbour that trades.

The latter is a decision for the Donbass region, but also for the Russian Federation.

There should be no pressure in any way on these referendums.

Heard the Turks were there to help run the UAV's as apparently Ukes having issues.

flamming_python wrote:

franco wrote:Heard the Turks were there to help run the UAV's as apparently Ukes having issues.

I don't think they'd be in Mariupol for that, but further back

And reports have it that they don't look like the UAV operator type, but more like SF

These are probably just the infamous Turkish /Arab sex tourist that routinely flood the Ukraine/Belarus/ Poland sporting greasy 90s haircuts, topheavy bodybuilder physiques and elevated shoes too make up for shitty genetics.

You can find them stomping the pavement 8 hours a day in every big city. Pick up lines vary from 'you wanna come to my room?` to'give me your phone number!'

Don't understand why Azov tier guys don't clean up their own streets before starting to mentally masturbate about a nuclear war with Russia

Anyway, false alarm.

Kaliningrad is fine and does not need to be fixed.

they fixed it before & now can fix Novorossiya.

losing Ukraine forever would cost them a lot more in the long run,

That ship has sailed, Ukraine is gone.

no, taking Crimea was the 1st step of breaking & dividing up Ukraine among her neighbors. If it's not done, Russia itself will break up.

The Russian capital being anywhere else would not make a lot of difference.
The US would not be safer in WWIII if their capital city was in Florida.

with MAD in place, there won't be a nuke exchange, forget it!

AFAIK South Ossetia has not and is not seeking to join the Russian Federation, and so far neither has any other part of the Ukraine except the Crimea.

the rebels in Donbass & most of Russian speaking Odessans do want to join the Russian Federation.

They will be firing shots as you invade and try to deny them access to those armoured vehicles and resources. If you do not invade they have no reason to shoot.

if those r captured, there will be none or a lot less shooting involving them afterwards.

Creepy Joe is proving to be a doddery old fool.
Calls Putin a murderer with no soul and then asks him to show good faith and stand down his forces and then imposes sanctions and kicks 10 Russian diplomats out of the US.

he's no fool but pragmatic;- seeing the writing on the wall. Reagan called the USSR "the evil empire" but went to Moscow for talks.
"So as not to shoot each other": why Biden invited Putin to the summit

A threat that can be eliminated with a few missiles...

sure, but enemy missiles placed in Ukraine can eliminate more targets in Russia quicker. Recall the Cuban Missile Crises that ended with BMs removed from Turkey & Cuba.

Saying "go on... you will be fine" is not the sort of backing they need or want.

there r too many hot heads in Ukraine, like those in Georgia.

Makes you wonder why all those little weak countries were in such a rush to sign up...

they saw Russia as a threat, capable of taking them back against their will. That's what those rebels in the Russian Duma building that Yeltsin bombarded from tanks in 1993 wanted to do. Many in the current gov. have the same imperial mindset.

Russia has built up its forces on its border just in case Kiev do something stupid... which is the most likely cause of conflict in the area.

Russia views Ukraine as a tool & platform the US uses against her, just like SK & Taiwan were used against NK & PRC; Ukraine is next to the warm sea connected to the Med. & is a lot closer to C./S. Russia than Poland, Norway & Turkey.
Therefore, it had to be truncated & now is the next stage of gradual annexations.
Better to feed ur army & turn/keep the population loyal, lest a foreign army comes to & eat ur produce & abuse civilians.

Of course, but it will send forces unofficially

Already a lot of talk about Turkish SF in Mariupol, and them being there to direct Islamist mercs

Now also rumours of Polish advisors arriving.

Hahaha... islamic mercs and Ukrainian nazis.... all Russia and the freedom fighters in the Donbass is wait... a bit of alcohol and they will be killing each other...

Several thousand Ukrainian regime loyalists did leave though, but it's a drop in the ocean, the demographics did not change over the past 7 years.

Some stayed and spied for the Orcs and are going to jail too.

no, taking Crimea was the 1st step of breaking & dividing up Ukraine among her neighbors. If it's not done, Russia itself will break up.

Why would you think that Russia will break up if the Ukraine does not?

The Ukraine can be a festering sore of poverty and nazism to show the people from Belarus and Russia what the western dream is all about.... the people are nothing.... they want the resources or to remove you from the list of civil working societies (ie threats).

with MAD in place, there won't be a nuke exchange , forget it!

If HATO invades Russia via Ukrainian territory don't think they wont hesitate to nuke HATO forces forming up on Ukrainian territory... and hammering the forces crossing the border with artillery like HATO has never dreamed of.

the rebels in Donbass & most of Russian speaking Odessans do want to join the Russian Federation.

With all due respect, they need to be given a chance to say that... or to say no.

I can understand the actions of Kiev over the last few years would influence their decision but you or I are or even Putin is in no position to say what it is for them.

if those r captured, there will be none or a lot less shooting involving them afterwards.

To try to capture them would involve shooting... to not try to capture them would involve none.

he's no fool but pragmatic

He is an idiot... he imposes new sanctions for made up things he says Russia did and then says we shouldn't escalate things and we should cooperate and have stability...

It is like the Europeans who didn't understand why Russia banned EU food imports to Russia in response to EU sanctions on Russia over the Crimea voting to join the Russian Federation.

I have talked about the west projecting before and that is really telling... they claim Russia annexed the Crimea... which would suggest that Russia faked the election results and convinced everyone in the Crimea that was obviously pro Ukrainian and pro Kiev that each person was individually outnumbered by pro Russian people so when asked in the street to avoid being beaten to death all the Crimeans must say they want to join Russia... but obviously in their hearts they want to remain under the service of Kiev and paradise as it enters the EU and turns into a land of milk and honey.

The EU obviously thinks elections and referendums are so easy to fix they mean nothing so you can accuse Russia of annexing a region that voted to join them, so why is Russia imposing sanctions on the EU... the EU didn't do anything wrong.... did it?

sure, but enemy missiles placed in Ukraine can eliminate more targets in Russia quicker. Recall the Cuban Missile Crises that ended with BMs removed from Turkey & Cuba.

The air defences over Russia are a little bit different than they were in the 1960s. The air defences over the Ukraine... while Russian EW systems are jamming them... are more like air defences of the 1860s.

You can pretend that HATO invading Russia is a one sided battle, but in terms of air defence capacity it is one sided the other way, and to be honest I really don't think many HATO countries are going to contribute actual troops for the job of invading Russia... they will all suddenly identify as women and have their periods coming on so they will have to wait it out.

there r too many hot heads in Ukraine, like those in Georgia.

There are many who believe the dogma and propaganda, but there are also a few ready to give them a slap or a bullet to the back of the head when they turn away.

The thing is that for the Donbass it would get things over quicker if they actually did do something stupid.... instead of being shelled and having people killed every other week or day, they will get a chance to shoot back, and Russia could pinpoint a few targets they might like to deal with too with standoff weapons...

But what would be ideal would be Zelensky realising he is being a dick and he promised to talk so he should at least try it.

they saw Russia as a threat, capable of taking them back against their will.

The evidence of the last 20 years shows the only bit of land they actually wanted back was the Crimea... and it is mostly Russian anyway.

That's what those rebels in the Russian Duma building that Yeltsin bombarded from tanks in 1993 wanted to do. Many in the current gov. have the same imperial mindset.

If both sides wanted that, then why did the Duma building get shelled?

Putin has shown no Imperial instincts at all... in fact the opposite... his example has been more democratic than the west.

Probably because being Russian he has a better appreciation of what wars do.

Russia views Ukraine as a tool & platform the US uses against her,

Russia views Ukraine as a neighbour... if the Ukraine joins the EU then it is their new border with the EU, and the direction train cargo from Asia can pass through to get to other EU countries. If Ukraine joins HATO then it is part of a military force that threatens Russia so the trains will not go through the Ukraine and they can go screw themselves... if the Ukraine joins HATO gas probably wont go through the Ukraine either... even if they have to ship it.

Ukraine is next to the warm sea connected to the Med. & is a lot

Russia already has access to that sea via Crimea, but also plenty of its own territory there too.

Therefore, it had to be truncated & now is the next stage of gradual annexations.

There is no reason to believe the Ukraine will break up into little bits, but even if it did what makes you think the people of the western ukraine will enjoy being tiny parts of other countries and be told to stop being ukrainian any more... it wont matter how much these new countries or the EU invests in trying to bring them up to standard with the rest of the country... it wont be enough for these people... they might even start civil wars to get better treatment.... all they know is to protest and complain... and start fights...

Better to feed ur army & turn/keep the population loyal, lest a foreign army comes to & eat ur produce & abuse civilians.

The Ukraine is barely doing that, and Russia is the foreign army in this case... they don't want Ukrainian food they grow their own now, and I doubt they want to talk to Ukrainian civilians... what is there to talk about?  New parades this week to celebrate this or that SS brigade...

In the East they don't need Russian troops on the streets and they could certainly trade with Russia and start to grow and develop and become a normal country, but most of the Ukraine is not interested in good relations with Russia.... they hate Russia and blame Russia for all their problems... let the EU and US fix their problems.

Why would you think that Russia will break up if the Ukraine does not?

'cause, among other things, this smoldering conflict will eat Russia alive. U never lived there & have no clue what u r talking about.

If HATO invades Russia via Ukrainian territory don't think they wont hesitate to nuke HATO forces forming up on Ukrainian territory...

even if it never happens, NATO will keep Russia at gunpoint better than ever before; that's one more reason to nip it in the bud.

With all due respect, they need to be given a chance to say that... or to say no. I can understand the actions of Kiev over the last few years would influence their decision but you or I are or even Putin is in no position to say what it is for them.

He did it in Crimea, with falsified exaggerated # of those who voted "yes" to join the RF. The true #s would show a lot less margins.

To try to capture them would involve shooting... to not try to capture them would involve none.

I bet that many, if not most, Ukr. troops would be happy to surrender, desert & go home instead of fighting for morons in Kiev & their NATO sponsors.

He is an idiot... he imposes new sanctions for made up things he says Russia did and then says we shouldn't escalate things and we should cooperate and have stability...

those r symbolic sanctions to show that he's doing something different than Trump; they won't affect Russia at this point. The 2 USN DDGs he was sending to the BS got that deployment cancelled . Just in: CF ships entered the BSF AOR. They can deploy 600 marines to help take the Azov coast.

The air defences over Russia are a little bit different than they were in the 1960s. The air defences over the Ukraine...

such fighting with Ukraine is anathema to Russia which regards most of its population as ethnic Russians; the Ukrainian identity created by Austo-Hungarians in the 19th century.

The evidence of the last 20 years shows the only bit of land they actually wanted back was the Crimea... and it is mostly Russian anyway.

I heard of an account about how Putin told Yanukovych that if he signed a deal with the EU, several of his regions will be taken. He ended up not signing & got overthrown.

If both sides wanted that, then why did the Duma building get shelled?

back then, Yeltsin was against recreating the USSR; he wanted all the other former 14 republics to be off Russia's back;
as the saying goes: "a woman off the cart, easier for the mare".

Putin has shown no Imperial instincts at all... in fact the opposite...

u better take it with a grain of salt; recently he said: those who left the USSR should have left with only lands they had when joining it. Hint: Russia gave a lot of her own lands to them that they now claim as theirs, & there r Ms of ethnic Russians on those lands.

Probably because being Russian he has a better appreciation of what wars do.

he won't be doing any fighting himself, & has no sons to loose like Stalin & Mao did. His 3 daughters, (2 legitimate, 1 not) r not subjects to conscription, even during full mobilization.

Russia views Ukraine as a neighbour...

not anymore, it's a former friend turned hostile after the Western directed coup.

if the Ukraine joins the EU.. If Ukraine joins HATO..

Russia in its current form won't allow it, as she wasn't going to allow Georgia in NATO.

Russia already has access to that sea via Crimea, but also plenty of its own territory there too.

the point is, Ukr. access to it is detrimental to Russian interests. Putin just effectively closed the Azov Sea to Ukraine form the BS, & it looks like he'll soon take her Azov Sea coast as well. If not soon, later she'll loose her BS coast too.

There is no reason to believe the Ukraine will break up into little bits,

it's an artificial state like Yugoslavia & Asto-Hungary were; u can find their printed maps only in history books, enciclopedias & archives now.

but even if it did what makes you think the people of the western ukraine will enjoy being tiny parts of other countries and be told to stop being ukrainian any more...

that would be their & those countries' problem.

The Ukraine is barely doing that, and Russia is the foreign army in this case... they don't want Ukrainian food they grow their own now,..

not only Ukr. army would be invading Russia;
Ukraine exports a lot of produce to Russia.

and I doubt they want to talk to Ukrainian civilians...

no, it would be the Russian civilians suffering from foreign occupation.

..but most of the Ukraine is not interested in good relations with Russia.... they hate Russia and blame Russia for all their problems... let the EU and US fix their problems.

no, most of it is the silent majority that sits on the fence & waits for the winds to shift.
I'm tired clarifying numerous things u miss in my posts; u seem to think u have a good grasp of the situation there, but that is a delusion. It would be like me arguing with u about NZders' problems & politics, even though I never set foot there.
Do me a favor: write posts about the things u know, instead of lecturing. Thanks in advance!
Let's take a look at what lies behind the movements of military equipment initiated by Zelensky, what kind of game it is, and in whose interests everything is happening. At least in the form of a version.

Ukraine will never be admitted to NATO

..two large landing ships of the Russian Navy - Kaliningrad and Korolev as part of the Baltic Fleet - having passed the Bosphorus, on April 17 also entered the Black Sea.
On April 16, it became known that the formations of the 58th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District of the Russian Federation were transferred from the North Caucasus to the annexed Crimea to perform firing practice at the Opuk range.
The territory of this training ground allows intensive training in firepower and driving simultaneously with specialists from all divisions of military units of the coastal forces of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation, Kommersant reports.
And last week, the German magazine Der Spiegel published satellite images that show a huge new military camp with more than a thousand pieces of equipment.
"About 30 kilometers from the village of Marfovka, not far from the coast, the Russian military gradually built a temporary base ... While this area was still empty on March 15, by April 2 more cars and buildings could be seen in it," the newspaper notes.
British ships come to the rescue
On April 18, the media learned that two ships of the British naval forces will head to the Black Sea in May to express solidarity with Kiev and NATO in light of the increased military activity of Russia near the borders of Ukraine.
According to the British newspaper Times, the destroyer and the frigate will separate from the British Navy aircraft carrier strike group in the Mediterranean Sea and head through the Bosphorus to the Black Sea.
They will be supported by the aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth with F-35B aircraft and Merlin helicopters. HMS Queen Elizabeth will remain in the Mediterranean Sea due to the ban on the navigation of aircraft carriers in the Black Sea.
It is noted that earlier the United States canceled the decision to send its ships to the Black Sea so as not to create more tension.
"Operational planning continues, including planning for activity in the Black Sea. The US decision does not affect the plans of the aircraft carrier strike group for 2021," the Times quoted a senior defense source as saying.
As Eastern Europe analyst Matthew Sherwood told the Daily Express, the escalating conflict between Ukraine and Russia is of international importance, because in it Moscow is opposed to the West.
"Britain, as a NATO member, can be involved in the escalation of the conflict, which also affects the transatlantic military alliance. Although we do not envisage such an escalation in our main forecast, it cannot be completely ruled out either," he stressed. https://korrespondent.net/ukraine/politics/4349675-brytanyia-otvetyt-rf-blokyruet-kerchenskyi-prolyv

10 thousand Russian volunteers are sent to Donbass War correspondent Yuri Kotenok is sure that Russia will not indifferently look at how Donbass will undergo another round of aggression by the Ukrainian military. “We must not forget that after all, volunteers from the Russian side can play a serious role. Within a few days, about 10 thousand people can arrive in the conflict zone. I talked with certain people, indeed, many detachments are already literally sitting on suitcases, ”he said. A source -https: http://svpressa.ru/war21/article/294
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kb8-TFSURDk

'cause, among other things, this smoldering conflict will eat Russia alive. U never lived there & have no clue what u r talking about.

The smoldering conflict hasn't done much damage to Russia so far... most ties between Russia and the Ukraine have already been cut... by the Ukraine.

Any actual conflict that effected Russia and Russia will deal with it quickly and efficiently... like they did in Georgia, but this time around they are much better equipped and trained.

even if it never happens, NATO will keep Russia at gunpoint better than ever before; that's one more reason to nip it in the bud.

Having HATO in the Ukraine or next to it makes very little actual difference... Russia has plenty of guns to point back.

He did it in Crimea, with falsified exaggerated # of those who voted "yes" to join the RF. The true #s would show a lot less margins.

Prove it.

If the majority of Crimeans didn't want to join the Russian Federation there is not much Russia could do to force them.

There would be no value in faking referendum results because a hostile population couldn't be controlled and would be more trouble than they would be worth.

I bet that many, if not most, Ukr. troops would be happy to surrender, desert & go home instead of fighting for morons in Kiev & their NATO sponsors .

Even if that was true... one pro kiev nazi dickhead with a PKM could mow them down as soon as they dropped their rifles, and the Russian forces moving forward to accept their surrender...

those r symbolic sanctions to show that he's doing something different than Trump;

Sanctions is what Trump did, so weak ineffectual sanctions is what Biden does now... like I said he is an idiot.

they won't affect Russia at this point.

They responded in kind with their own sanctions... some of the people on their list were high up US officials...

The 2 USN DDGs he was sending to the BS got that deployment cancelled . Just in: CF ships entered the BSF AOR . They can deploy 600 marines to help take the Azov coast.

So the American ships ran away and the Russians continue to position forces ready if needed to kick Orc arse.

The Russians are not moving forces in response to US ship movements so calling back those ships wont make any difference.

Russian forces are moving forward because Ukrainian forces are moving forward... if Biden wants Putin to pull his forces back he needs to get Zelensky to pull Kievs troops back as stipulated in the Minsk agreements.

such fighting with Ukraine is anathema to Russia which regards most of its population as ethnic Russians; the Ukrainian identity created by Austo-Hungarians in the 19th century.

They wont be targeting the general population, just the SS loving military forces made up of the sort of soldier that would have changed sides and fought for Germany 70 odd years ago... I would think they would be happy to kill them... not to mention some mercs from Syria... another shot at them would be good use of ammo.

I heard of an account about how Putin told Yanukovych that if he signed a deal with the EU, several of his regions will be taken. He ended up not signing & got overthrown.

Fantastic spin... now it is Putins fault that Yanukovych got overthrown... those 5 billion dollars the US spent and all those cookies meant nothing... it was Putin. Did he use Novachok or was it Russian hackers and election meddling...

There is no way Putin could foresee that after a US instigated coup in the Ukraine that Kiev would be so stupid as to alienate its own people by demanding they stop speaking Russian, which is actually what alienated them and made them belligerent against the people who stole power in Kiev.

If those nazis in Kiev just said speak any language you like there probably would be no problems because these people still see themselves as Ukrainian... I live in New Zealand and I speak English but I don't consider myself to be English or British, or even European despite ethnically being of european descent.

back then, Yeltsin was against recreating the USSR; he wanted all the other former 14 republics to be off Russia's back;
as the saying goes: "a woman off the cart, easier for the mare".

Putin demonstrates the same common sense.

those who left the USSR should have left with only lands they had when joining it. Hint: Russia gave a lot of her own lands to them that they now claim as theirs, & there r Ms of ethnic Russians on those lands.

Is he wrong?

he won't be doing any fighting himself, & has no sons to loose like Stalin & Mao did. His 3 daughters, (2 legitimate, 1 not) r not subjects to conscription, even during full mobilization.

By that logic he should be rushing from war to war... he has nothing to lose... except if he cared about all Russians and Russia itself...

not anymore, it's a former friend turned hostile after the Western directed coup.

It is both.... it is on Russias border and can never be not Russias neighbour... neither can move house and change that.

Russia in its current form won't allow it, as she wasn't going to allow Georgia in NATO.

What do you expect her to do to stop that?

the point is, Ukr. access to it is detrimental to Russian interests.

Abject poverty in the Ukraine is not in anyones interests... you said yourself he sees them as Russians... even if they don't themselves.

Putin just effectively closed the Azov Sea to Ukraine form the BS, & it looks like he'll soon take her Azov Sea coast as well. If not soon, later she'll loose her BS coast too.

He has closed it off to prevent more Syrian and Turkish mercs from arriving... he also said the blockade is temporary and will likely stop when NSII is complete.

it's an artificial state like Yugoslavia & Asto-Hungary were; u can find their printed maps only in history books, enciclopedias & archives now.

So is EU and US and Australia for that matter.

Does not mean breakup is inevitable.

that would be their & those countries' problem.

But what if it causes those countries to break up... a domino effect...

Ukraine exports a lot of produce to Russia.

No it doesn't.

not only Ukr. army would be invading Russia;

If you mean Syrian Mercs and Turk Mercs then cannon fodder for artillery.

If you mean HATO forces then tactical nukes would be justified to deal with an attack by HATO.

no, it would be the Russian civilians suffering from foreign occupation.

You actually think a Ukrainian force could make it to Russian territory.... but then you are an ORC so you know better than the Orc command who admit they might take the Donbass, but if Russia intervenes they will lose badly.

no, most of it is the silent majority that sits on the fence & waits for the winds to shift.

Silent majorities will burn quietly and the battle rages all around them.

I'm tired clarifying numerous things u miss in my posts; u seem to think u have a good grasp of the situation there, but that is a delusion. It would be like me arguing with u about NZders' problems & politics, even though I never set foot there.

You have an opinion and I have mine.

The only person I communicate with who is there or thereabouts is Auslander, and he hasn't told me I am delusional and an idiot... Putin has been fairly consistent in his actions and reactions and even with large numbers in the Donbass holding Russian passports he wont be annexing them any time soon, though a referendum on independence and self determination and separation from Kiev might be something they are interested in, but the Russian passports are more to get Russia at their backs to help them if needed... something the people of NK should have done a long time ago perhaps...

Let's take a look at what lies behind the movements of military equipment initiated by Zelensky, what kind of game it is, and in whose interests everything is happening

Just for your information I generally don't watch Youtube videos you provide links for... I have no interest in hearing from experts like Navalny on what a bad man mr Putin is.

correspondent Yuri Kotenok is sure that Russia will not indifferently look at how Donbass will undergo another round of aggression by the Ukrainian military.

That is a different article to the one before it that took great care to not mention the aggression is from the Ukrainian military and not from Russia.

I am sure those two British navy ships will tip the balance... knowing he has the mighty Royal Navy behind him Zelenski could do anything...

So now the Brits are sending two ships to the black sea on orders of the USA while their carrier remains in the med presenting a big fat target. Maybe Russia will help the UK test these ships robustness with some nice friendly low level sonic booms.