The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

whir wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:US financial bubble part might be up for debate, but the rest of this historical comparison and analysis is spot on, especially last paragraph.

It's not, armchair generals maybe wrong in their approach but those that preach that there's a masterplan where everything that is happening fits in it suffer from the same disease: disillusion.

Take just this three points as an example:

1. Kiev is not going to default and if it does it's not going to be for lack of loans but to hurt Moscow.

2. Most Greeks genuinely want to be in both EU and euro so they're going to swallow whatever it takes to stay inside. Just wait to see the real greek drama in the coming weeks once the much needed and praises reforms start hitting everyone like a jackhammer.

6. The multiples bubbles in China pose a massive threat not only to China but to the world's economy and with or without speculative attacks in the end the poor people that has indebted themselves to buy shares are the ones that are going to lose their money and end up even more poor than they were.

You said it correctly
1) KIEV(-junta) is not going to default, won't grind to a halt, they'll have more money coming to them to buy weapons. The rest of ukraine (Not dpr/lpr) who isn't part of the warmongering clique will suffer.

2) The greeks will chose the path of the least resistance as people are prone to do just so they can eat tomorrow and maybe the day after. No morals here. Yes, jackhammer will come crashing down in any scenario.

6) China needs to sell its goods to someone. It won't help them to kill their own buyers. Until the west is replaced as a market it won't do anything rash. Hence BRICS, SCO and the like to replace the west. Time is on their side because this will happen.

PapaDragon wrote:US financial bubble part might be up for debate, but the rest of this historical comparison and analysis is spot on, especially last paragraph.  

Borodino--2015

http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/07/borodino-2015.html

I think this is a false analogy as Russia is not at war, is not retreating. Rodzhers also conveniently completely misses out the important facts that the Prussian and Austro-Hungarian armies, while technically part of Napoleon's alliance, even after seeing what happened at Borodino never made any attempt to fight on Napoleon's side, and infact the Prussian Army were in collusion with Russian Army. To transpose the analogy of 1812 to 2015 would need a scenario where US forces are attacking Russia but their major battlefield allies in Europe, UK and Germany, were hanging about on the sidelines not taking part.

Another point is what is Russia supossed to be waiting for? Russia is not about to attack Ukraine, Russia is not at war, Russia has no forces in the combat area. Despite the "northwind", which cannot be proved or disproved, it is DNR and LNR that are at war with Ukraine. While the bombardments are not reported in western MSM, their politicians, no matter now cynical they are, will know the reality, and if VSN do eventually mount a limited operation to try to stop the bombardments, the western politicians will know this to be a fact and not a "Russian invasion" no matter what noises they and their media shout. This issue of the ongoing bombardments is incorrectly inflated with some fantasy about marching on Kiev and so is shouted down as "warmongering" or being to hasty. On this subject of bombardments ukrops and "cunning plan" advocates are hand in hand as both want it ignored. Rodzhers also flails about accusing some of wanting "instant victory", yet I do not see this except in a tiny minority of people who likely have ulterior motive, but it suits his purpose to paint any opposition as rabid dogs, or even rabid raccoons.

Until today I have had no objection to fortruss, but to see Hawks comments to this article have changed my opinion. He lies about Boris Rozhin and clearly does not want people to read him. He has tried to say that Rozhin originated the article about Polish T-72 being imported into Ukraine, when I know 100% that is was not him, it was dadzi. Hawk then flails about and waffles that if the T-72 article was not by Rozhin, then some other nonsense about T-64 from Bulgaria was his. This is lies and Rozhin certainly knows that Bulgaria does not have any T-64. That Hawk tells deliberate lies and tries to blacken Rozhin shows an agenda and that he is as biased as anybody and his articles should be put under microscope. I do not say fortruss should not be believed, or that all it's articles are wrong, as in fact many are correct, but it should now be seen as part of a concerted effort to tell people what to think.

Who calls for "instant victory" ? who calls for a march on Kiev in the foreseable future? What is the wait for in terms of limited tactical action by VSN?

whir wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:US financial bubble part might be up for debate, but the rest of this historical comparison and analysis is spot on, especially last paragraph.

It's not, armchair generals maybe wrong in their approach but those that preach that there's a masterplan where everything that is happening fits in it suffer from the same disease: disillusion.

Take just this three points as an example:

1. Kiev is not going to default and if it does it's not going to be for lack of loans but to hurt Moscow.

2. Most Greeks genuinely want to be in both EU and euro so they're going to swallow whatever it takes to stay inside. Just wait to see the real greek drama in the coming weeks once the much needed and praises reforms start hitting everyone like a jackhammer.

6. The multiples bubbles in China pose a massive threat not only to China but to the world's economy and with or without speculative attacks in the end the poor people that has indebted themselves to buy shares are the ones that are going to lose their money and end up even more poor than they were.

1. Official default or not, it is completely beside the point.
What is important is that suffering of average Ukrainian will be increasing exponentially.

2. Greeks, of course,  do want to be in EU. Also besides the point.
What matters is that EU is focused on Greece and, comparatively,  does not give two sh*ts about idiots in Ukraine.  

3. Threat of Chinese bubble may be problem for economy but has no effect on situation in Ukraine.
Poor will suffer as always but, again, irrelevant. And I honestly could not care less about idiots who still take out loans in spite of everything we know about economy.

People keep viewing this situation in terms of months instead of years. Longer this lasts worse off Ukraine (and in a sense EU) is and better off Russia and by extension Donbass are...

Analysis is solid.

Khepesh wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:US financial bubble part might be up for debate, but the rest of this historical comparison and analysis is spot on, especially last paragraph.  

Borodino--2015

http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/07/borodino-2015.html

....................................................

Another point is what is Russia supossed to be waiting for? Russia is not about to attack Ukraine, Russia is not at war, Russia has no forces in the combat area. .......................................

That is the whole point. Russia does not need to do anything at all. It just needs to go about it's day to day stuff and look after it's own business. Idiots in Kiev (and some in Brussels) are more than capable of running themselves into the ground.

Article uses metaphor and historic example to make a point. It's just that you guys have taken that metaphor literally.

PapaDragon wrote:

Khepesh wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:US financial bubble part might be up for debate, but the rest of this historical comparison and analysis is spot on, especially last paragraph.  

Borodino--2015

http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/07/borodino-2015.html

....................................................

Another point is what is Russia supossed to be waiting for? Russia is not about to attack Ukraine, Russia is not at war, Russia has no forces in the combat area. .......................................

That is the whole point. Russia does not need to do anything at all. It just needs to go about it's day to day stuff and look after it's own business. Idiots in Kiev (and some in Brussels) are more than capable of running themselves into the ground.

Article uses metaphor and historic example to make a point. It's just that you guys have taken that metaphor literally.  

Haven't taken the metaphor literally at all, simply know my history and can smell propaganda very easily. Still it is not explained who calls for "instant victory", and why this fantasy is wrongly conflated with calls to do something about the bombardment and make it seem that anybody who wants the bombarment to end is calling Putin a "traitor". This is grade A bullshit. Without conflating an advance on Kiev with ending the bombardment, why wait? All the other reasons to wait I see and agree with, but I am not content with the bombardment continuing and that ukrops and "cunning plan" both want it ignored at the expense of the people who suffer. A limited offensive against ukrops positions at Marinka, Peski, Avdeevka and Dzerzhinsk, and a little further beyond, which is what is required, will not cause WWIII or famine in Russia.

Khepesh wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

Khepesh wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:US financial bubble part might be up for debate, but the rest of this historical comparison and analysis is spot on, especially last paragraph.  

Borodino--2015

http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/07/borodino-2015.html

....................................................

Another point is what is Russia supossed to be waiting for? Russia is not about to attack Ukraine, Russia is not at war, Russia has no forces in the combat area. .......................................

That is the whole point. Russia does not need to do anything at all. It just needs to go about it's day to day stuff and look after it's own business. Idiots in Kiev (and some in Brussels) are more than capable of running themselves into the ground.

Article uses metaphor and historic example to make a point. It's just that you guys have taken that metaphor literally.  

Haven't taken the metaphor literally at all, simply know my history and can smell propaganda very easily. Still it is not explained who calls for "instant victory", and why this fantasy is wrongly conflated with calls to do something about the bombardment and make it seem that anybody who wants the bombarment to end is calling Putin a "traitor". This is grade A bullshit. Without conflating an advance on Kiev with ending the bombardment, why wait? All the other reasons to wait I see and agree with, but I am not content with the bombardment continuing and that ukrops and "cunning plan" both want it ignored at the expense of the people who suffer. A limited offensive against ukrops positions at Marinka, Peski, Avdeevka and Dzerzhinsk, and a little further beyond, which is what is required, will not cause WWIII or famine in Russia.

I think the NAF is very capable of dealing a blow to the ukrop.

NAF recruit training

PapaDragon wrote:1. Official default or not, it is completely beside the point.
What is important is that suffering of average Ukrainian will be increasing exponentially.

It does not matter how much they suffer as long as they accept it and do their part.
A default would make a bigger difference.

Here we go, this is the core of the US/IMF/EU actions in Ukraine, the strategic plan. Nothing to do with Russia or a better life for its people, its all about selling any saleable asset in UKraine now that the currency has been devalued. Now the Western financiers can buy it up for cents on the dollar. If Ukraine defaults on interest payment due on the 24th July it will be even cheaper. Somehow one suspects little of the money raised will end up helping Ukraine.

Ukrainian Economic Development Minister Aivaras Abromavicius clarified exactly how many state companies would be offered up for sale to US and European investors at the upcoming Ukrainian-American investment conference in Washington D.C on Monday, stating that 345 state-run firms would be put on offer to the highest bidder.

Speaking before reporters on Thursday, Abromavicius noted that the 345 firms offered for sale "will be included in the first wave of privatizations," which he earlier confirmed would begin in the fourth quarter of this year. Kiev's effort is ostensibly aimed at raising billions of dollars for the country's cash-strapped budget, as the economy, hit by a decline in trade with Russia, financial panic, and civil war, lies in tatters and on the verge of default.

Companies on the docket include the electricity generation firm Tsentrenergo and six of its regional distributors, gas transportation companies, the Odessa Port Plant, mining operations and agricultural holdings, which together are projected to bring 17 billion hryvnia (about $790 million) into the country's coffers.

Earlier this year, Ukrainian officials held similar conferences in Washington, Berlin and Paris. As late as last month, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk met with Ukrainian-Americans in Washington, telling them that his government wants "to see American owners on the territory of Ukraine," stating that "they will bring not only investment, but also new standards, new ways of managing the companies, and a new investment culture."

But with the IMF (conservatively) projecting a 9 percent decline in Ukraine's GDP in 2015, with inflation hitting nearly 50 percent and the country approaching debt levels amounting to 100 percent of GDP, analysts warn that the present may be the worst possible time for Kiev to sell off its large, state-owned firms. The country's economic decline, political instability and the war in the east have hit property values hard, which means that Kiev is unlikely to collect significant sums for the large, valuable, strategic assets offered up for sale.

Analysts also suggest that Western investors will have little appetite for the purchase of the unwieldy, heavily-indebted state firms, many operating at a loss since the collapse of the Soviet Union, noting that the most profitable companies were already bought up in crooked schemes by the country's oligarchs a long time ago. In this connection, AFP recently reported that Rada MPs connected with the country's oligarchic clans are likely to use their influence to prevent the sale of the profitable state assets under oligarchs' influence. Moreover, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung columnist Konrad Schuller recently poured cold water on the entire privatization initiative, noting that in an environment of speedy, murky, clan-dominated privatization, Western investors will have no time to assess whether the state companies offered up for sale are truly lucrative or not.

Furthermore, while Yatsenyuk recently announced that over 150 major investors have already RSVP'd to attend the Washington conference, he has already been hit by dissention from within his own cabinet, with officials from the Energy Ministry and the State Property Fund challenging the pace and scale of privatization.

In April of this year, Ukraine agreed to an International Monetary Fund-monitored austerity program, which called for the shedding of 24,000 government jobs, higher taxes, privatization of state assets and the withdrawal of subsidies on utilities in exchange for a total of about $40 billion in IMF-led foreign assistance over the coming four years.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150710/1024465237.html#ixzz3fVpADQC5

I do not agree with papadragon's strategy of wait and see. If that were the case, the world would not have sacrificed 50 million people to beat facsists in WW2. Was Germany going to beat itself? Um no. Even when its cities were reduced to rubble, Germany never gave up fighting. To think that Ukraine would have another Maidan when the Ukrainian public believes Russians are invading their country is a pipe dream.

"Rusich" returning to Russia and comments made by Enot Corps, who supply them, have caused me to change the timeframe I forecast for war resuming. Instead of late July to early August, I now forecast mid August to mid September. I'm not Nostradamus and am likely totaly wrong because "stuff" happens. So not much plenty of time to take a vacation and stock up on

Why August? What's the new intel from Donbass?

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:Why August? What's the new intel from Donbass?

Rusich have left, which by itself is not hugely important, but a withdrawl of volunteer Russians may, or may not, be happening. There is also speculation about the fate of Zakharchenko as head of DNR. As he is elected and popular, and getting fitter, I see no reason for him to go, but hampsters are in overdrive about this, and I am keeping out of any such debates. When what appears to be a "clearing the decks" occurs, then action is usually not far behind. I'm putting a big caveat on any forecast and I refer to my strikethrough

btw, a lot of comments here and around the networks assume a VSN offensive at some point in time, and Zakharchenko has said all of Donbass will be liberated. But I, apart from wanting the bombardments stopped, am not thinking in terms of any VSN offensive, but ukrops, even with all the talk that they are not ready. Both sides are not 100%, no army ever is, but both are ready enough, IMO.

facebook Truth about the situation in Ukraine got shut down

Rusich left Donbas in protest of Minsk agreement and unilateral release of Maidan prisoners.

http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-live-day-508-sentsov-and-kolchenko-to-be-detained-for-another-6-months/

Khepesh wrote:

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:Why August? What's the new intel from Donbass?

Rusich have left, which by itself is not hugely important, but a withdrawl of volunteer Russians may, or may not, be happening. There is also speculation about the fate of Zakharchenko as head of DNR. As he is elected and popular, and getting fitter, I see no reason for him to go, but hampsters are in overdrive about this, and I am keeping out of any such debates. When what appears to be a "clearing the decks" occurs, then action is usually not far behind. I'm putting a big caveat on any forecast and I refer to my strikethrough

btw, a lot of comments here and around the networks assume a VSN offensive at some point in time, and Zakharchenko has said all of Donbass will be liberated. But I, apart from wanting the bombardments stopped, am not thinking in terms of any VSN offensive, but ukrops, even with all the talk that they are not ready. Both sides are not 100%, no army ever is, but both are ready enough, IMO.

This is one of the more strange Tanz Macabre I've seen in my life. Both sides seem to be ready to go for it yet both sides hold back. The bombardments are steadily increasing in crescendo and our losses are mounting yet we do nothing. I understand why we do nothing. Constant probing attacks from the orcs happen daily and we do nothing but kill some of them. Again, I understand why we don't do a local attack to stop the more aggressive orcs. Twice our son was granted leave and twice it was canceled at the last moment. I understand why as does he. Taken all together, though, it is a puzzlement.

It seems that US crusade on Russia economy is firing back at US economy..
Reports already that US is on Recession.  IF american pressure Europeans to
cut trade relations with Russia , it will slow down European economies and this at the same
time will slow down US economy that depends on Europe..


BUt i think Americans understand this and that they will be ready to sacrifice a recession
in hopes to bankrupt Russia. But if Russia does not bankrupt it could end very bad for them..
Already reports of US will need to increase again its debt ceiling and make another loan to
get the money to operate end of this year..

here this chart shows US economy is negative in first quarter of 2015..



Wondering all the idiots At RT who were claiming US economy was so strong...  

If you look at those graph.. it looks like a real battle going on there.. and you have Ron Paul
and others predicting US economy collapse in near future.. we will see..

auslander wrote:This is one of the more strange Tanz Macabre I've seen in my life. Both sides seem to be ready to go for it yet both sides hold back. The bombardments are steadily increasing in crescendo and our losses are mounting yet we do nothing. I understand why we do nothing. Constant probing attacks from the orcs happen daily and we do nothing but kill some of them. Again, I understand why we don't do a local attack to stop the more aggressive orcs. Twice our son was granted leave and twice it was canceled at the last moment. I understand why as does he. Taken all together, though, it is a puzzlement.  

May I ask, what unit is your son serving in? Kudos to him for standing up to oppression

Flagship Victory wrote:facebook Truth about the situation in Ukraine got shut down

Yep they wiped it out, Facebook did, but it's already back up.

It's good that "Rusich" left, enough russian nationalists have died so khazars like Plotnitskiy can rule and make money out of the blood of innocent russian children. I hope all russian nationalist volunteers leave Novorussia it's not worth dying for, it's not worth dying so khazars can rule.

Khepesh wrote:Rusich have left, which by itself is not hugely important, but a withdrawl of volunteer Russians may, or may not, be happening.

And so the localisation of the Donbass war continues.

Khepesh wrote:There is also speculation about the fate of Zakharchenko as head of DNR. As he is elected and popular, and getting fitter, I see no reason for him to go, but hampsters are in overdrive about this, and I am keeping out of any such debates.

I am surprised that Zakharchenko is so popular despite his failure to stop the Ukrainian terror shelling of the DPR.

Khepesh wrote:btw, a lot of comments here and around the networks assume a VSN offensive at some point in time, and Zakharchenko has said all of Donbass will be liberated. But I, apart from wanting the bombardments stopped, am not thinking in terms of any VSN offensive, but ukrops, even with all the talk that they are not ready. Both sides are not 100%, no army ever is, but both are ready enough, IMO.

Kiev has little to gain from a risky new offensive. The status quo suits it far more.

Vann7 wrote:here this chart shows US economy is negative in first quarter of 2015..

I wish the Russian economy was that "bad".

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:Kiev has little to gain from a risky new offensive. The status quo suits it far more.

Then why amass such amount of equipment and manpower along the frontline?

Vitaly Klitschko, the great orator of Ukraine is also known as "Vitaly the Gold Tongue"  



NO wonder why he wasn't selected to lead ukraine. Some say he shows signs of
brain damage from boxing.

whir wrote:

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:Kiev has little to gain from a risky new offensive. The status quo suits it far more.

Then why amass such amount of equipment and manpower along the frontline?

Blockade. Russia is not cooperating from the east side however.

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:
Kiev has little to gain from a risky new offensive. The status quo suits it far more.

Kiev has little to gain from most of the crazy things it does like censorship, destroying the Ukrainian economy, not paying pensions, workers, but it still does them, Kiev is no strange at doing things that have little gain or even absolute loss.