The Situation in the Ukraine. #18

JohninMK wrote:Mortar and artillery squads in the Border Service?

PapaDragon wrote:
Professor PapaDragon could have told them this a year ago...

''Ukraine Heading for Yugoslavia Scenario – Polish Media''

http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150729/1025185527.html

auslander wrote:20 years from now Ukraine will again be the farm and back shop of Russia, a sleepy and generally agricultural backwater with some spots of manufacturing and mining.

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:

auslander wrote:20 years from now Ukraine will again be the farm and back shop of Russia, a sleepy and generally agricultural backwater with some spots of manufacturing and mining.

You mean Europe.
I don't see Brüssel losing the Ukraine to Russia once the dominant American influence in the Ukraine is removed.

auslander wrote:Brüssel has nothing to do with it, their 'foreign policy' has proven to be inept time and time again and they have no power beyond what is in their minds. How strong is their army?

auslander wrote:Russia will never allow an EU presence in Ukraine, not now, not in the future. Russia is using soft power at the moment but if needs be when Ukraine dissolves in to total anarchy Russia may, operative being 'may', use hard power to restore order on her borders.

In the end 'Brüssel' may get one or two far west oblasti but they will be no loss to Ukraine and an albatross around the neck of Poland and the remains of the old Austro-Hungarian Empire.

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:

auslander wrote:Brüssel has nothing to do with it, their 'foreign policy' has proven to be inept time and time again and they have no power beyond what is in their minds. How strong is their army?

Strong enough.

auslander wrote:Russia will never allow an EU presence in Ukraine, not now, not in the future. Russia is using soft power at the moment but if needs be when Ukraine dissolves in to total anarchy Russia may, operative being 'may', use hard power to restore order on her borders.

In the end 'Brüssel' may get one or two far west oblasti but they will be no loss to Ukraine and an albatross around the neck of Poland and the remains of the old Austro-Hungarian Empire.

There is a lot of Ukrainian territory between the "far west" and the Russian border and most of the population there was turned against Russia.
How is Russia supposed to prevent an EU presence in Ukraine? The Kremlin has even accepted the EEA that ties Kiev to Brüssel.

After inciting the Ukrainian conflict that led the country to a civil war and brought it to the verge of economic collapse, the West has now realized that Ukraine isn’t worth much, at least not as much as establishing a working political relationship with Russia, US political journalist Brian Whitmore said.

The United States and the European Union (EU) are "selling out" Ukraine to Russia to gain the Kremlin's support in dealing with Iran's nuclear program and looking for Moscow's approval of taking out Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, the Atlantic Magazine reported.

According to Brian Whitmore, over the past few weeks, the Europeans and Americans have been busy trying to strike a political deal with Vladimir Putin.

"The United States and Europe might give up Ukraine in exchange for Russia's support of securing a deal to curb Iran's nuclear program. Additionally, Washington has been seeking Moscow's backing in securing a managed, orderly, and negotiated exit for Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad," Whitmore said in the Atlantic.

Whitmore speculates that the secret deal between the superpowers started when the US government praised Moscow's role in reaching the Iranian nuclear agreement.

Then, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland went to Kiev and persuaded Ukrainian lawmakers to make changes in their constitution to recognize the special status of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics. Something that Kiev has been long opposed to, Whitmore argued.

The new constitutional proposition, which was forced to Kiev by the US government according to Whitmore, also includes a decentralization reform that will make Ukraine a federal state, changing its administrative and territorial system. After the law is passed, there will be three levels of governance: municipal, district and regional (or provincial). The central (federal) government will always be represented at any local level by officials appointed by Kiev at the discretion of the president.

The last connecting point for Whitmore was the event that took place a couple of months ago, when US Secretary of State John Kerry traveled to Sochi for talks with Putin about Iran, Syria and Ukraine. It was during the bilateral talks, the two countries allegedly decided to cut the deal.

PapaDragon wrote:US, EU 'Give Up' Ukraine to Seek Russian Political Support

http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150729/1025186549.html

The United States and the European Union (EU) are "selling out" Ukraine to Russia to gain the Kremlin's support in dealing with Iran's nuclear program and looking for Moscow's approval of taking out Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, the Atlantic Magazine reported.

Flagship Victory wrote:Ukraine wants 1,240 Javelin anti tank missiles from the US. What do you think? Will Ukraine get?

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/ukraine-wants-just-1240-us-javelin-missiles-to-fight-rebels/526465.html

PapaDragon wrote:US, EU 'Give Up' Ukraine to Seek Russian Political Support

http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150729/1025186549.html

After inciting the Ukrainian conflict that led the country to a civil war and brought it to the verge of economic collapse, the West has now realized that Ukraine isn’t worth much, at least not as much as establishing a working political relationship with Russia, US political journalist Brian Whitmore said.

The United States and the European Union (EU) are "selling out" Ukraine to Russia to gain the Kremlin's support in dealing with Iran's nuclear program and looking for Moscow's approval of taking out Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, the Atlantic Magazine reported.

According to Brian Whitmore, over the past few weeks, the Europeans and Americans have been busy trying to strike a political deal with Vladimir Putin.

"The United States and Europe might give up Ukraine in exchange for Russia's support of securing a deal to curb Iran's nuclear program. Additionally, Washington has been seeking Moscow's backing in securing a managed, orderly, and negotiated exit for Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad," Whitmore said in the Atlantic.

Whitmore speculates that the secret deal between the superpowers started when the US government praised Moscow's role in reaching the Iranian nuclear agreement.

Then, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland went to Kiev and persuaded Ukrainian lawmakers to make changes in their constitution to recognize the special status of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics. Something that Kiev has been long opposed to, Whitmore argued.

The new constitutional proposition, which was forced to Kiev by the US government according to Whitmore, also includes a decentralization reform that will make Ukraine a federal state, changing its administrative and territorial system. After the law is passed, there will be three levels of governance: municipal, district and regional (or provincial). The central (federal) government will always be represented at any local level by officials appointed by Kiev at the discretion of the president.

The last connecting point for Whitmore was the event that took place a couple of months ago, when US Secretary of State John Kerry traveled to Sochi for talks with Putin about Iran, Syria and Ukraine. It was during the bilateral talks, the two countries allegedly decided to cut the deal.    

Flagship Victory wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:US, EU 'Give Up' Ukraine to Seek Russian Political Support

http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150729/1025186549.html

The United States and the European Union (EU) are "selling out" Ukraine to Russia to gain the Kremlin's support in dealing with Iran's nuclear program and looking for Moscow's approval of taking out Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, the Atlantic Magazine reported.

Dream on, buddy Gorbachev made the mistake of trusting westerners when he dissolved USSR.

par far wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:Ukraine wants 1,240 Javelin anti tank missiles from the US. What do you think? Will Ukraine get?

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/ukraine-wants-just-1240-us-javelin-missiles-to-fight-rebels/526465.html

Yes, they will get it, they will get with money that the EU and the dreaded IMF is going to "loan" them.

Flagship Victory wrote:

par far wrote:

Flagship Victory wrote:Ukraine wants 1,240 Javelin anti tank missiles from the US. What do you think? Will Ukraine get?

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/ukraine-wants-just-1240-us-javelin-missiles-to-fight-rebels/526465.html

Yes, they will get it, they will get with money that the EU and the dreaded IMF is going to "loan" them.

Would the US supply so many high end missiles to Maidan? I think after US supplied counter mortar radar was captured the US is having second thoughts about supplying high end equipment to Maidan. Russia don't even have fire and forget top attack missiles like Javelin so I don't think the US will give Javelins. I think the US will give artillery and shells which don't have to worry about being captured since Maidan only needs to shell Donesk anyway.

auslander wrote:When, not if but when, Ukraine dissolves in to total anarchy and civil strife, who is going to come in and put paid to the fighting and killing? EU? Not hardly. The Ukrainians will turn to their fraternal brothers to the north and east and beg them to come in and restore peace and calm. Never forget, most of central and east Ukraine has a long tradition of friendship, brotherhood and intermarriage with Russia, the two countries are virtually as one.

As I said, and I stand by what I said, in the end Ukraine will be a brother, again, to Russia, and Russia will take care of Ukraine as she always has.

The number of respondents strongly opposing their family members marrying ethnic Ukrainian migrants spiked from 28 to 42 percent between 2013 and 2014—an outlier in the general trend for somewhat greater acceptance of migrant non-Russian ethnics as marriage partners. In this sense, Russian respondents appeared to be “defraternizing” with Ukrainians (Figure 1) but not other groups. The fact that opposition to marrying ethnic non-Russian migrants on average changed little from 2005 to 2013 further suggests this “defraternizing” was an artifact of changing Russia-Ukraine relations since 2013.[2]

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:

auslander wrote:When, not if but when, Ukraine dissolves in to total anarchy and civil strife, who is going to come in and put paid to the fighting and killing? EU? Not hardly. The Ukrainians will turn to their fraternal brothers to the north and east and beg them to come in and restore peace and calm. Never forget, most of central and east Ukraine has a long tradition of friendship, brotherhood and intermarriage with Russia, the two countries are virtually as one.

As I said, and I stand by what I said, in the end Ukraine will be a brother, again, to Russia, and Russia will take care of Ukraine as she always has.

Don't count on that anymore.

The number of respondents strongly opposing their family members marrying ethnic Ukrainian migrants spiked from 28 to 42 percent between 2013 and 2014—an outlier in the general trend for somewhat greater acceptance of migrant non-Russian ethnics as marriage partners. In this sense, Russian respondents appeared to be “defraternizing” with Ukrainians (Figure 1) but not other groups. The fact that opposition to marrying ethnic non-Russian migrants on average changed little from 2005 to 2013 further suggests this “defraternizing” was an artifact of changing Russia-Ukraine relations since 2013.[2]

http://www.ponarseurasia.org/memo/new-wave-russian-nationalism

auslander wrote:.........................................


Wishful thinking. Russia will not abandon President Assad and Kiev will never give even limited autonomy to Donbass, read Mr. Poroshenko's own words on that subject.

PapaDragon wrote:

auslander wrote:.........................................


Wishful thinking. Russia will not abandon President Assad and Kiev will never give even limited autonomy to Donbass, read Mr. Poroshenko's own words on that subject.

I'm just posting article here, not agreeing with it. No need to preach to the quire.

auslander wrote:I count on nothing.

auslander wrote:On the other hand we will attend a wedding at St. Nikolas this weekend, a very formal wedding. One wedding does not make a trend, but even an avalanche starts from but one snowflake.

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:

auslander wrote:I count on nothing.

You count on the inseparability of Russia and Ukraine.
The leaders of Russia did the same and they were proven wrong.

auslander wrote:On the other hand we will attend a wedding at St. Nikolas this weekend, a very formal wedding. One wedding does not make a trend, but even an avalanche starts from but one snowflake.

Good for you.