The Situation in the Ukraine. #19

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:Both sides have access to good intel. So it all boils down to numbers, training, equipment and good command - just like at Kursk.

Kursk was like professional boxing match compared to what we see now - hobo fights. One of them is big fatty and his liver is failing as we speak. Another guy is skinny pete on bath salts, a guy with double personality who can bite Your balls off just around Mariupol if You don't keep guard low.

Even the numbers Ukro can throw at seps are pathetic. It seems their logistics can't cope with number of troops they are deploying. I bet it takes a lot to keep artillery blazzin 24/7. I do hope their push(if it's happening) will be grinded to bits.

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:Both sides have access to good intel. So it all boils down to numbers, training, equipment and good command - just like at Kursk.

Good intel what's that?

Seen Ukrop trenches lately? It's abysmally bad. Thank God they're not into a real shooting war or this would be worse than Iraq.

Kotemore, what do you mean?

There is no way Ukrainians aren't receiving satellite photos from the US. There is no way to plan a alrge scale offensive without them. Likewise, NAF must have access to satellite photos of Ukro positions

Cassad relaeased a new blog entry enitled "O poterakh VSU" (about the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). My knowledge of Russian is limited, could someone translate it?

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:Kotemore, what do you mean?

There is no way Ukrainians aren't receiving satellite photos from the US. There is no way to plan a alrge scale offensive without them. Likewise, NAF must have access to satellite photos of Ukro positions

... The issue is this, satellite imagery helps him who understand them. Debaltsevo was exactly known from both parts. The attack on Elenovka as well, tell me how these great warriors managed to fuck up operation after operation over time, if that imagery was available. Because satellite pictures can't help understanding your own on the ground issue.

Take the basic four point trenches the Ukrops use. It's a four point mini salient that forces the attacking forces to embrace the position therefore concentrating instead of spreading. Well taken as whole the system, which isn't Soviet BTW, can work, but planting those everywhere without coherent coordination makes only isolated pockets that can be treated fairly easily. Such a point was shown at Sanzharovka during Debal. However, the point, despite offering great momentaneous resistance, fell quiite easily. Under a two attacks. It cost three tanks and a BTR but the position was lost.

The other isssue regards the level of capability from the UA forces. Defending they can do, supporting an attack they can't. COunter attacking they can't.

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:Cassad relaeased a new blog entry enitled "O poterakh VSU" (about the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). My knowledge of Russian is limited, could someone translate it?

It's an appeal to Kiev residents. I guess it's one of the medics who wrote this.

-In the last weeks the amount of wounded has increased. Every day there are 20 to 25 heavily wounded.
-Medics perform surgeries every day from the early morning until late.
-Hospital laundry has been out of service for 2 weeks. Reasons are "unknown".
-Not enough materials to perform surgeries.

Then follows a whole list of what they need. It's so bad they are even requesting trash bags. Yes, trash bags, you read that right. They also ran out of clean linnen apparently.

Well what can I say. Glory to Ukraine and its heroes. RIP in pieces.

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:Kotemore, what do you mean?

There is no way Ukrainians aren't receiving satellite photos from the US. There is no way to plan a alrge scale offensive without them. Likewise, NAF must have access to satellite photos of Ukro positions

... The issue is this, satellite imagery helps him who understand them. Debaltsevo was exactly known from both parts. The attack on Elenovka as well, tell me how these great warriors managed to fuck up operation after operation over time, if that imagery was available. Because satellite pictures can't help understanding your own on the ground issue.

Take the basic four point trenches the Ukrops use. It's a four point mini salient that forces  the attacking forces to embrace the position therefore concentrating instead of spreading. Well taken as whole the system, which isn't Soviet BTW, can work, but planting those everywhere without coherent coordination makes only isolated pockets that can be treated fairly easily. Such a point was shown at Sanzharovka during Debal. However, the point, despite offering great momentaneous resistance, fell quiite easily. Under a two attacks. It cost three tanks and a BTR but the position was lost.

The other isssue regards the level of capability from the UA forces. Defending they can do, supporting an attack they can't. COunter attacking they can't.

It only proves that Ukrainian army is made of incompetent bums.

If Ukrainian army can't even build a simple defensive position right, then it's even better for the NAF!

2 Maidan soldiers KIA and 7 Maidan soldiers WIA yesterday

Neutrality wrote:

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:Cassad relaeased a new blog entry enitled "O poterakh VSU" (about the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). My knowledge of Russian is limited, could someone translate it?

It's an appeal to Kiev residents. I guess it's one of the medics who wrote this.

-In the last weeks the amount of wounded has increased. Every day there are 20 to 25 heavily wounded.
-Medics perform surgeries every day from the early morning until late.
-Hospital laundry has been out of service for 2 weeks. Reasons are "unknown".
-Not enough materials to perform surgeries.

Then follows a whole list of what they need. It's so bad they are even requesting trash bags. Yes, trash bags, you read that right. They also ran out of clean linnen apparently.

Well what can I say. Glory to Ukraine and its heroes. RIP in pieces.

This is yet another confirmation that Ukr claims of 2400 dead soldiers is a load of BS... together with FV's hurraoptimistic "2 dead, 7 wounded"...

IF there are 20-25 heavily wounded arriving every day in a single hospital in Kyiv, then how many are arriving in other hospitals in Kyiv? How many are arriving in hospitals all accross the country? There are hospitals with intensive care units in Poltava, Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk that are all closer to the frontline. It makes no sense to transport wounded soldiers to Kyiv except if all hospitals close to the frontline are already filled.

Let me just state the obvious: There will not be any Ukrainian offensive.

Dforce wrote:Let me just state the obvious: There will not be any Ukrainian offensive.

There is a good saying. When the arrow is on the bow, it will surely be let loose. The entire Ukrainian army is concentrated on the point of contact less than a kilometer from Donetsk. Trust me hun, there will be a Ukrainian offensive.

It's getting weird. It sounds like Ukes have moved new forces into position, signifying a new outright attack on Novo is imminent. Shelling and skirmishes have escalated. But, there's little mention of this on the better known news sources that regularly cover Russia/Ukraine topics in English, or feature English-translation of their articles. Tass had the piece regarding Lavrov's statement, but I'm not seeing much else. Strange.

PapaDragon wrote:
Donald Trump may have his share of flaws but given the alternatives offered, he is by far the best choice right now.

Last OT from me about Trump (?). A lot of people I know are in a panic about ol' Don... "OMG, if HE gets in we're really f*cked!" I just laugh at that notion and reply with "yeah? As compared to which other choice out of that rogue's gallery and roster of frauds?" And if trump looks sort of ridiculous, with this hideous toupee and whatnot, well the whole national state of affairs is ridiculous, so I find it quite appropriate.

Also, I think people overestimate what any president can realistically expect to accomplish in terms of a personal agenda. In practice, any US president's options are heavily circumscribed by the deep state.

Regular wrote:

Erk wrote:

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:Time for NAF to learn from their forefathers at Kursk - three strong defensive lines with minefields, camouflaged AT ditches, tanks and AT positions, well hidden gun emplacements + strategic reserve to contain a breakthrough in case it occurs.

A must watch for everyone:

The forefathers didn't have to worry about UAVs and military satellites telling the enemy exactly what you have and where.

But they had to worry about effective tactics, good commanders, higly trained and motivated personel, advanced weapons.
And Ukrainian army is nothing like Wermach. Well maybe in it's last days;)

Without wanting to diminish the stunning performance of the Red Army at Kursk in any way, they did have in advance, courtesy of British Intelligence at Bletchley Park (both officially and via the Russian spy there), the 'central facts' German battle plan so they had a good idea where to place their forces in advance.

Whilst this time the NAF will probably have less knowledge of the UA plans than last year as many or most Moscow friendly UA officers will have been weeded out and heavy US security imposed, including encryption on the buried wires and networks the Russians should have been tapping.

Dforce wrote:Let me just state the obvious: There will not be any Ukrainian offensive.

Might need to quote you in the future

Dforce wrote:Let me just state the obvious: There will not be any Ukrainian offensive.

Doesn't compute with the current buildup. Neither does it with the current shelling. If Ukraine doesn't want to attack, it surely takes ambiguity to a whole new level. Ukraine does want to attack, even a little.
And doesn't compute with the reality on the ground. Decaying the situation, is was Putin was asking for, he got it. The ones who need desperately an attack are the Ukrainians.

Kotemore, what exactly is the frontline strength of both sides? How many men, tanks, art pieces? I know it's over 50k at each side but I don't have precise numbers.

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:Kotemore, what exactly is the frontline strength of both sides? How many men, tanks, art pieces? I know it's over 50k at each side but I don't have precise numbers.

There's no way to know that with any accuracy. The current forces must stand around 25K for NAF with about 10/15K "reserves" and probably 5/10K Northern Tajfun just in case.
Ukropia has shown very limited means on first hand. So far from all the BS, I've seen means for about 30K people on the lines, I'd say if they have 40 thousand in arms facing NAF that's about right. There are as per accounts 20K reserves plus scrape from the NatsGuard. NATO says it has/is train(ed)ing about 4 000 people (UK 1+1coming, US 1750 NG and Paras so far, about 300 from Baltic douches).

Laws of war state that you need 3 times the force of your opponent in order to carry out a successful offensive. Does Kiev have that? Let's assume they do. But what does that mean exactly for Kiev? Their army, even if they significantly outnumber the NAF, are in a terrible condition. Wars need (good) logistics too and AFAIK Kiev's logistics are terrible and that's assuming NAF doesn't attack them. There are so many weak points within the Ukrainian military and the NAF can choose any in order to weaken and decimate the VSU. This is not even mentioning the glaring holes in intelligence. Rest assured that Moscow has plenty of moles within the ranks of the VSU.

NAF reported 5 civilians killed last night by Maidan shelling.

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Chersonesus wrote:Sparta battalion has released a video of its museum showing the smaller trophies from the battles. They appear to have captured a minigun (0:40 into video). Before and after photos of a group of cyborgs.

youtube.com/watch?v=l-i5F_n84jc

Looks like a Shipunov 7.62mm. From Crocodile gunpod?

That looks about right. I'm sure it would appeal to the Ukrop's US-style macho instinct.

OT: When I try to post links, there is a message saying something to the effect that new members cannot post links. How do I get link posting privileges?