The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

Our common friend is having a friendly chat with our other common friend.

Jippo doesn't like me. Like seriously. I am scared.

Asheren wrote:

I don't think winning hearts and minds propably even without any combat operations would be as "easy" as with norks given that local population is brainwashed 24/7 from day 0.

Take a look at Chechnya Asheren. It took 3 years of self-dependence, self-governance, self-subsistence and self-reliance after the withdrawal of the Russian troops (though federal government didn't stop paying pensions and such) for the Chechens to reconsider their ways and figure out the main negative feature of petty chauvinism and zealotry.

Well, if Russian example is not appropriate, Kiev can listen to some European guys instead. E.g. Otto von Bismarck: “Fools learn from experience. I prefer to learn from the experience of others.”

A shrewd reasoning, isn't it? Especially considering that it came from the principal apologist of German imperialistic militarism which was an actual parent of the putrid Aryan master race philosophy.

Your mentioning of the local population being brainwashed 24\7 could seem more noteworthy if:
A) The situation in the region was not so dire in general
B) DLPR citizens didn't have the real access to UA media via TV, radio and the Internet and haven't been ever visited by Ukrainian MSM teams, popular bloggers and never had teleconferences with the mainland in particular.

Crimeans also watch UA media. Sometimes. For lulz. Cassad tells that Kiev's fairytales about degrading and rotting Crimean resorts visited by covert FSB\GRU officers only, are the most hilarious. Oh, 24\7 web-camera coverage these days.

I could also add that many, like very many, DLPR citizens periodically cross the frontline to visit UA controlled cities to take their rightful pensions and benefits. Falling within the reach of UA MSM, enjoying Ukrainian bureaucracy, dealing with cockish "CTO" border guards with their specific attitude to "favors" in process.

Heck, on certain occasion they can even watch (and be amazed!) the proud and solemn Yuri Biryukov, the advisor of the president of Ukraine and the top dog among Ukrainian volunteers. I mean watch him telling a witty and eloquent city legend featuring some "Stalking tank " that loves very, like super very much to M-M-Monster KILL various lorries and semi-trucks carrying different wares and goods, such as beverages, cigarettes and other daily stuff, to the DLPR customers through the front line.

https://www.facebook.com/yuri.biriuk...27571717511639
http://obozrevatel.com/crime/14397-o...yil-sekret.htm
http://ru.tsn.ua/ato/na-donetchine-s...oy-456560.html

Winning hearts and minds Maidan Realpolitik edition.

Or more like "You don't need a knife to cut the fool"*

Asheren wrote:I am not sure I want to know how much worse its on ground level.

I appreciate this Asheren. Thank you for the such well-timed reminder of our common obligation to slap-slap anyone's face who comes here freshly-registred and dares to tell that we, the veterans, are indifferent to the fate of this discussion and the fate of all other Russia_Treads in this forum.

See ya next time by our cognac degustating room in TheMess. Like after the noon.

P.S.
I would like to issue the similar request to you that I did to Jippo (most probably he won't answer but whatever) - to bring some information about various Polish MSM, bloggers, freelance journos and other public actors visiting Crimea and talking to ordinary people about their experience while sharing some cans of beer and wódka. I am very interested, no trick. Moreover, it will constitute to the less biased Russian perception of the Polish POV on the events in Crimea and respective positions of its inhabitants.

* На дурака не нужен нож

So, has the Ukrainian offensive started yet? Or is the ONE honest person ready to admit all this was pure BS?

Werewolf wrote:That is just the current state after the US has influenced and brainwashed the younger generations over 23 years of them being some artifical indigenous folk of their own which calls all their people "Atborderliving"  not even like all true countries when you say i move to or in a country for ukraine till this very day it says i drive at ukraine or on ukraine, because it is a border not a country and that is its name "Attheborder".

Actually there have been 4 distinct waves of "Ukrainization"

- 1st one in the second half of 19th century, supported by Austria-Hungary
- 2nd one under Bolshevik government until 1931
- 3rd one under Nazi Germany (open support for Ukrainian nationalism)
- 4th one after 1991

Karl Haushofer wrote:

Werewolf wrote:

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:

BKP wrote:I think the fat man was right in one recent statement; the Ukes are no "brothers" of the Russian people.

They are brothers, but the kind of brothers who steal your money and show you no respect.
It is better to separate from them.

That is just the current state after the US has influenced and brainwashed the younger generations over 23 years of them being some artifical indigenous folk of their own which calls all their people "Atborderliving"  not even like all true countries when you say i move to or in a country for ukraine till this very day it says i drive at ukraine or on ukraine, because it is a border not a country and that is its name "Attheborder".

I was never really for panslavism untill that point that i realized that all slavs are brainwashed by the west to feel bad and become hostile towards russians, so all slavs are balcanized for the purpose of better conquering and control of US and that must be stopped at all cost. I am for sezession of countries and that means pan germanism, pan slavism, pan-turkism and pan-sinoism. As long those countries stay strong and united it will be harder for any country to impose their will above others. Balcanization is very bad for unipolar world and i think that is a better way than the current situation were every country is terrorized by the fat guy who calls himself the best at everything with his very high tendencies towards violance and supremacy believes.

Why did the Slavs allow this to happen? Why no resistance?

Most Slav countries have 5th columnists as their leaders, look at poland, czech, romania and others who are happy to be the meatshield of US, installing ABM shields and are feeding their population anti-slavic and anti-russian garbage of them trying to attack them. The funny thing is during the Cold war the entire Warsaw pact was the "Russian" that wants to destroy and entire europe and enslave everyone. The poles, czechs and all rest of Warsaw pact were the russians and new this propaganda of the "evil russians rolling over europe" but today they are fed the very same lie 24/7 since decades. The only 3 countries that are not anti-slavic balcanizing the ethnicity and region is Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia. The rest is already US vassal.

The other point why those 3 are not doing anything against this anti-slavic balcanization is rather complicated but one factor is simply shortsigtness to how Soft power could counter this anti-slavic propaganda of the west. Russia was always bad at propaganda even tho they fully understand the mechanisms and technology of how Propaganda works. Another point is russia is doing something against the US that is rather focused on the finanical collapse of the US which will bring much better result in shorter time than russias attempts of countering the anti-slavic and anti-russian NGO's infested east european countries.

In the next 2-3 decades i see Pan-slavism as a result of the current US policy of harming the entire ethnicity and region to a brink of WW3.

Well, I just make a long detailed reply to multiple posters about Odessa, and when I hit "send" I find I am logged out.... So, I cannot be bothered to make that long reply again.

Generally, it really does not matter about an uprising in Odessa. After 2 May Odessa was swamped by police, SBU and pravy sektor from Galicia, and armed. With no leadership what are people supossed to do, go out on the streets as a leaderless mob and get gunned down? Is this suppossed lack of resistance now an excuse to let Odessa become a NATO naval base, and this will happen if nothing is done. Do people not read the news about what happens in Odessa? has nobody even seen my posts here about the attacks that take place from time to time?. To do nothing on the assumption that Ukraine will collapse is wrong as nobody can say Ukraine will collapse, it is simply a hope. This is micawerism and is worse than makhnovism and smells of pacifism. I do not say that Strelkov did all, as clearly he did not, but a man such as him and with the capability to hold off attacks from more than local police loyal to Kiev, SBU and pravy sektor thugs, was needed in Odessa, Kharkov and Mariupol. We can can only surmise, but such a stand in any of those cities may have caused the junta to collapse.

Agreed Khepesh.
Any uprising in Odessa (or elsewhere) would have been crushed those days by Kiev's gangs.
The uprising in Donbass was successful only because they got hold of weapons soon enough. Otherwise it would have been doomed as well.

While Donbass' population is more than 90% anti-Kiev, about 70% of Odessa's population is against Kiev's Junta. But there is a sizable 30% that is pro-Kiev. One should not discard most Odessian's just because the minority has won.

I must also add that there is a good number of Odessa folks in the NAF fighting for Donbass and looking to liberate Odessa eventually.

Many of the forum colleagues here believe that Ukraine is a lost case and we should forget about it and fight only for the independent choice of Donbass.
I disagree respectfully: Kiev is keeping the reins on Ukraine by the force of arms and terror. So far they have been successful, but their dictatorship is not going to last forever. Sooner or later, one way or the other, they will be removed from power and a large chunk of Ukraine (and possibly all of it) will return under the sphere of Russian influence.

This clownery that we are having for almost two years is just the armed version of the orange revolution we had earlier. It will lead to nowhere. Donbass and Russia should stand their ground and beat them in military or non-military confrontation.

Khepesh wrote:Well, I just make a long detailed reply to multiple posters about Odessa, and when I hit "send" I find I am logged out.... So, I cannot be bothered to make that long reply again.

Generally, it really does not matter about an uprising in Odessa. After 2 May Odessa was swamped by police, SBU and pravy sektor from Galicia, and armed. With no leadership what are people supossed to do, go out on the streets as a leaderless mob and get gunned down? Is this suppossed lack of resistance now an excuse to let Odessa become a NATO naval base, and this will happen if nothing is done.

Don't you understand that this exact attitude is the very definition of defeatism? People in Crimea reacted immediately as soon as those radicals took power in Kiev and they started kicking the living hell out of any RS thug on the street if he or she dared something. The enemy was known and all it took was a mob to deal with them. There was no real leadership there either, instead there were "leaders" of small patriotic movements who decided to do something. Act now and think later was basically the motto and it was risky but it DID pay off in the end. More or less the same goes to Donetsk and Lugansk and the rest is history. The fact remains though, as much as we like to deny it, that those who want to be helped will be helped (read: Russian support). "Come to the streets, form a group, express your discontent and we'll provide you with leadership and support" is basically the thing Russia was thinking.

Do people not read the news about what happens in Odessa? has nobody even seen my posts here about the attacks that take place from time to time?

I think you're confusing wars between different clan of thugs over money and territory with insurgent activity/pro-Russian partisans. Was there any significant moment after the Trade Union massacre which showed some Odessitans were fighting against Kiev? I haven't seen anything like it except maybe for the Bessarabia arrest. And even when the leader of a pro-independent Bessarabia gets arrested they sit on their ass and don't protect those who are fighting for their voice. And you're expecting anything serious?

To do nothing on the assumption that Ukraine will collapse is wrong as nobody can say Ukraine will collapse, it is simply a hope. This is micawerism and is worse than makhnovism and smells of pacifism. I do not say that Strelkov did all, as clearly he did not, but a man such as him and with the capability to hold off attacks from more than local police loyal to Kiev, SBU and pravy sektor thugs, was needed in Odessa, Kharkov and Mariupol. We can can only surmise, but such a stand in any of those cities may have caused the junta to collapse.

Strelkov did his job in Crimea then he moved on to Donetsk and Lugansk. What do these places have in common? They have shown massive pro-Russian sentiment. Suppose Strelkov would move to Odessa. Then what? Let himself get arrested by Odessa police and watch as the mob who he's fighting for is too scared to do something? There was no pro-Russian support in Odessa like there was in Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk and Strelkov would lead himself into a trap if he decided to go there and I'm glad he didn't.

I say it's a far safer strategy to let Ukraine be for a while until it breaks apart under its own nationalism. The whole idea that Kiev has for Ukraine is rotten at its core and a country with a rotten core cannot exist. Collapse is certain, the only question is when. We're already witnessing little flames within the country. Council of Zaporozhie asking for special status only to be denied later is a good example of this. Hungarian intelligence betting on Western regions like Zakarpatiye to flame up in the future is another good indicator.

Karl Haushofer wrote:If I remember correctly the last time Kharkov and Odessa were occupied by the nazis in 1941-1943 it took Red Army to liberate them. The local people did not do it. It will have to be done with the same way this time around too.

Like I said in my previous reply. Do not confuse a foreign country's interference with civil war. It was the Red Army's duty to liberate those territories because that territory was part of the USSR so duh.

You are mistaking anti-Maidan or previous PoR support for being pro-Russian. A mistake that is easy to make. And places you among retarded "analysts" and "journalists" that called Yanukovich a "pro-Russian regime leader".

These anemic, passive people have allowed a loud and violent minority with foreign backers to usurp the rule in their country. And while trouble started in western Ukraine in autumn of 2013 (capturing, looting of government buildings, armories etc) they kept for themselves, "minded their own business". Take a look at Kiev itself, even during the most numerous protests at Maidan (and a sizable number of people present weren't from Kiev) Kiev common people pretended nothing was happening.


Well sorry if I sound to harsh, but a life of a single volunteer/NAF soldier is worth more than the entirety of Ukraine. Evacuate the good people to Russia, dump Russian liberals/fifth column and UkrOp guest workers into Ukraine. Let them enjoy what their allies have prepared for them. With or without this conflict, the Soviet-style enterprises and industries were doomed. Aim to draw the skilled and educated workers since there most certainly won't be any demand for them at home in the future, as well.

Let's not mention Odessa. How about Adviivka? Just a stone's throw from Donetsk? There is no uprising there? None whatsover in Kramatorsk, Maruipol, Slavyansk. There can only be uprising if there are leaders.

0 Maidan soldiers KIA and 1 Maidan soldier WIA yesterday.

Flagship Victory wrote:Let's not mention Odessa. How about Adviivka? Just a stone's throw from Donetsk? There is no uprising there? None whatsover in Kramatorsk, Maruipol, Slavyansk. There can only be uprising if there are leaders.

There are no uprisings in these cities and towns because these cities and towns are full of trigger-happy ukrops with tanks/IFVs/APCs.
The people who want to fight have the opportunity to fight by joining the NAF.

Flagship Victory wrote:Let's not mention Odessa. How about Adviivka? Just a stone's throw from Donetsk? There is no uprising there? None whatsover in Kramatorsk, Maruipol, Slavyansk. There can only be uprising if there are leaders.

0 Maidan soldiers KIA and 1 Maidan soldier WIA yesterday.

None whatsover in Kramatorsk, Maruipol, Slavyansk. There can only be uprising if there are leaders.

Are you kidding, trolling or just ignorant?

Dforce wrote:So, has the Ukrainian offensive started yet? Or is the ONE honest person ready to admit all this was pure BS?

Where are your manners Big D? Pets can't play while owners are busy talking. (Holande,Merkel)

Besides, sending cannon fodder to their doom can be tricky if cannon fodder know where it is being sent to.

Relax and enjoy the show.I'll be a long one...

Neutrality wrote:

Don't you understand that this exact attitude is the very definition of defeatism? People in Crimea reacted immediately as soon as those radicals took power in Kiev and they started kicking the living hell out of any RS thug on the street if he or she dared something. The enemy was known and all it took was a mob to deal with them. There was no real leadership there either, instead there were "leaders" of small patriotic movements who decided to do something. Act now and think later was basically the motto and it was risky but it DID pay off in the end. More or less the same goes to Donetsk and Lugansk and the rest is history. The fact remains though, as much as we like to deny it, that those who want to be helped will be helped (read: Russian support). "Come to the streets, form a group, express your discontent and we'll provide you with leadership and support" is basically the thing Russia was thinking.



I think you're confusing wars between different clan of thugs over money and territory with insurgent activity/pro-Russian partisans. Was there any significant moment after the Trade Union massacre which showed some Odessitans were fighting against Kiev? I haven't seen anything like it except maybe for the Bessarabia arrest. And even when the leader of a pro-independent Bessarabia gets arrested they sit on their ass and don't protect those who are fighting for their voice. And you're expecting anything serious?


Strelkov did his job in Crimea then he moved on to Donetsk and Lugansk. What do these places have in common? They have shown massive pro-Russian sentiment. Suppose Strelkov would move to Odessa. Then what? Let himself get arrested by Odessa police and watch as the mob who he's fighting for is too scared to do something? There was no pro-Russian support in Odessa like there was in Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk and Strelkov would lead himself into a trap if he decided to go there and I'm glad he didn't.

I say it's a far safer strategy to let Ukraine be for a while until it breaks apart under its own nationalism. The whole idea that Kiev has for Ukraine is rotten at its core and a country with a rotten core cannot exist. Collapse is certain, the only question is when. We're already witnessing little flames within the country. Council of Zaporozhie asking for special status only to be denied later is a good example of this. Hungarian intelligence betting on Western regions like Zakarpatiye to flame up in the future is another good indicator.

"Defeatism", from me, really.......
And no, I do not mistake local criminal activity for partizan activity, and no, I did not say that Strelkov should have gone to Odessa, only that a person like him was needed. Nobody knows the future, nobody knows if Ukraine will collapse or not. How long do we wait for this event, until the populations of Donetsk and Gorlovka have left and the cities are smoking ruins. At what point will "waiting" be seen to be a failed plan, when American fleet is based at Odessa, when NATO armored formations are at Dnepropetrovsk.

Khepesh wrote:At what point will "waiting" be seen to be a failed plan, when American fleet is based at Odessa, when NATO armored formations are at Dnepropetrovsk.

Isn't that inevitable at this point unless the Ukrainian government in Kiev changes for the better?

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:

Khepesh wrote:At what point will "waiting" be seen to be a failed plan, when American fleet is based at Odessa, when NATO armored formations are at Dnepropetrovsk.

Isn't that inevitable at this point unless the Ukrainian government in Kiev changes for the better?

It is inevitable if the situation is seen only in terms of DNR and LNR and trying to legitimise Crimea to the west. If we wait, then this will become a frozen conflict and not only the possibility of potentially regaining Russian land be lost, but also any possibility of influence. It could be said, and correctly, that there is no influence with Kiev now, but there is still the chance of a change of government that will be in Russia's interests. But it cannot be left to waiting and chance as I believe that waiting, while weakening Ukraine, will infact lessen the possibilities of changing the situation in Ukraine for the better. I see no possibility of Donbass being "merged", but will the gain, in some form, of part of Donbass be a consolation for NATO being along the western border, I think not.

Khepesh wrote:
"Defeatism", from me, really.......
And no, I do not mistake local criminal activity for partizan activity, and no, I did not say that Strelkov should have gone to Odessa, only that a person like him was needed. Nobody knows the future, nobody knows if Ukraine will collapse or not. How long do we wait for this event, until the populations of Donetsk and Gorlovka have left and the cities are smoking ruins. At what point will "waiting" be seen to be a failed plan, when American fleet is based at Odessa, when NATO armored formations are at Dnepropetrovsk.

Donetsk and Gorlovka will prevail. Leningrad's population had to endure far worse conditions but it never gave up. Look at Palestina and what it went through starting from 1945. Yes, population has decreased, insfrastructure destroyed and most of the land taken away but it's still there and far from giving up. Although they are not being shelled by artillery on a daily basis, their infrastructure gets repeatedly destroyed by the IDF and the Israeli government hasn't removed the economic blockade. Donetsk and Lugansk will stand straight as long as its needed.

About the American fleet and NATO armored formations... The same Americans have been in fighting in Vietnam and what have they achieved? Total dominance of the South by the North and the USMC running with its tail between its legs.

Here's a good piece by Lenta which you'll like: http://lenta.ru/articles/2015/08/29/ukraine4russia/

Khepesh wrote:

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:

Khepesh wrote:At what point will "waiting" be seen to be a failed plan, when American fleet is based at Odessa, when NATO armored formations are at Dnepropetrovsk.

Isn't that inevitable at this point unless the Ukrainian government in Kiev changes for the better?

It is inevitable if the situation is seen only in terms of DNR and LNR and trying to legitimise Crimea to the west. If we wait, then this will become a frozen conflict and not only the possibility of potentially regaining Russian land be lost, but also any possibility of influence. It could be said, and correctly, that there is no influence with Kiev now, but there is still the chance of a change of government that will be in Russia's interests. But it cannot be left to waiting and chance as I believe that waiting, while weakening Ukraine, will infact lessen the possibilities of changing the situation in Ukraine for the better. I see no possibility of Donbass being "merged", but will the gain, in some form, of part of Donbass be a consolation for NATO being along the western border, I think not.

The problem is that "waiting" seems to be the strategy of the Kremlin.
It fears losing control of the situation in Donbass and Russia even more than losing influence in Ukraine.

Khepesh wrote:

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:

Khepesh wrote:At what point will "waiting" be seen to be a failed plan, when American fleet is based at Odessa, when NATO armored formations are at Dnepropetrovsk.

Isn't that inevitable at this point unless the Ukrainian government in Kiev changes for the better?

It is inevitable if the situation is seen only in terms of DNR and LNR and trying to legitimise Crimea to the west. If we wait, then this will become a frozen conflict and not only the possibility of potentially regaining Russian land be lost, but also any possibility of influence. It could be said, and correctly, that there is no influence with Kiev now, but there is still the chance of a change of government that will be in Russia's interests. But it cannot be left to waiting and chance as I believe that waiting, while weakening Ukraine, will infact lessen the possibilities of changing the situation in Ukraine for the better. I see no possibility of Donbass being "merged", but will the gain, in some form, of part of Donbass be a consolation for NATO being along the western border, I think not.

IMHO, I really think more territory is the plan for DNR and LNR, when idk, how much, idk, but that's what I think.

Kiev government, whomever, idealistically wants control of all the territory of Ukraine and border with Russia, & if they can not have that, will try to destroy that area.

They wanted control of Crimea, but lost that, and they can cry, cry, cry, but there is no getting Crimea back ever.

Ideally DNR and LNR wants everything to the Dineper river.

What each side idealistically wants is not possible, but what DNR and LNR wants is more possible than what Kiev wants.

So I think in the future there will be a big clash, and the winner will take all they can. & I think that will be DNR and LNR.

Whomever blinks first, will be the one who attacks first, and I believe that it will be Kiev Armed Forces.

Why? Because DNR and LNR have already suffered, but when Kiev controlled area suffers more, attack will be all Kiev government has left to do.

Just my humble opinion ...

Sad truth is that there can't be a winner for this war.