The Situation in the Ukraine. #20

Regular wrote:Sad truth is that there can't be a winner for this war.

Sure there can be, but it would take much sacrifice.

The Donbass will be free, one way or the other, I can see no way that the Ukraine can maintain what control they have there. He who dares, wins.

As for Kharkov, Odessa, etc... I dunno. They don't seem to be very active. And since they aren't, the Ukrainian state, even after economic collapse, social disorder and with constant internal power struggles, will have no problem unleashing Nazis on the rare public dissenter.
People in these cities either don't care, or they think that they can wait this whole thing out. On both counts they are wrong. But ultimately, if they're not wiilling to help the NAF, then there's no reason why the NAF should help them.

flamming_python wrote:

Khepesh wrote:And no, I do not mistake local criminal activity for partizan activity, and no, I did not say that Strelkov should have gone to Odessa, only that a person like him was needed. Nobody knows the future, nobody knows if Ukraine will collapse or not. How long do we wait for this event, until the populations of Donetsk and Gorlovka have left and the cities are smoking ruins. At what point will "waiting" be seen to be a failed plan, when American fleet is based at Odessa, when NATO armored formations are at Dnepropetrovsk.

But there were leaders in Odessa. They were all slaughtered by Nazis, while locals strutted around shouting 'Putler!' (probably).

I can understand the arguments about Kramatorsk, Mariupol, etc... and how there is no uprising there. Of course, there, confrontations with Ukrainian armed forces by civilians did happen, and they ended very bloodily. And now they are completely full of Ukie military, ready to shoot anyone. AFAIK, there was a mass-riot in one of these towns half a year ago or so.
The Donbass people, whether in the occupied areas or the liberated ones, are joining and fighting in the NAF. They are definately resisting.

In Odessa, Kharkov there is barely anything. Not even any sabotage, much less partisan action.

There was nothing but a couple of sacrificial lambs in Odessa. The facts are that the shock that prompted the current situation is largely gone. Having an insurgency in Odessa is more of a liability than an asset, they're far, would rely on Pridnestrovie for weapons and kit and would open up to far more messy situation than now. At least now, Ukraine can be bled out in silence. With a second front Ukraine would go into Bydlo mode and become a steaming pile of shit. Not the purtiest sight to date.

Neutrality wrote:

Donetsk and Gorlovka will prevail. Leningrad's population had to endure far worse conditions but it never gave up. Look at Palestina and what it went through starting from 1945. Yes, population has decreased, insfrastructure destroyed and most of the land taken away but it's still there and far from giving up. Although they are not being shelled by artillery on a daily basis, their infrastructure gets repeatedly destroyed by the IDF and the Israeli government hasn't removed the economic blockade. Donetsk and Lugansk will stand straight as long as its needed.

About the American fleet and NATO armored formations... The same Americans have been in fighting in Vietnam and what have they achieved? Total dominance of the South by the North and the USMC running with its tail between its legs.

Here's a good piece by Lenta which you'll like: http://lenta.ru/articles/2015/08/29/ukraine4russia/

At Leningrad there was no serious alternative to holding the city, at Donetsk and Gorlovka people can simply pack their bags and go if they want. This means that they do not have to endure, and many have not, but if this situation continues then more and more will leave and the cities could die and become a shell surrounded by an army that defends, what? empty buildings and land of no strategic value, unlike Leningrad, which anchored the front in the north and tied up huge numbers of German forces.

Unlike Vietnam, Americans will put their bases in Ukraine without them being constantly attacked, or even surrounded, by hostile forces. That in the event of WWIII they will all die is not a consideration, for the fact of their presence in Ukraine may be a cause for WWIII starting, and besides, their presence will be like America permanently giving Russia the finger, and will put pressure on Belarus.

Well, the Lenta article is correct or course, but it is first necessary to retrieve the situation and re-create Ukraine as a stable border state that knows it's future is not Micky Mouse but Cherubashka. The difficulty we face is in how this is acheived, some want to wait, others do not.

PapaDragon wrote:

And what is the problem with waiting?

Because the longer the situation slips into stalemate then the more "normal" it is seen as. We are still at a "hot war" situation even if there is no manouver warfare taking place at the moment, so any transition to full out war will not be a surprise and will be expected. To wait several years, and with no sign of Ukraine collapsing, the opportunity to resume war to liberate the occupied lands becomes more difficult. The people themselves may not want it, world opinion will again shit on Russia, and what will happen is that this will become a frozen conflict for many decades. If Ukraine does not collapse, and there is no certainty of this at all, then the best that can be hoped for is that what remains of DNR and LNR become part of Russia as the consequence of some undoubtedly long and tortuous "peace process". I see the possibility of Ukraine being salvaged, by military action if necessary, slipping further away as time passes. The best chance was last year and it was lost by, IMO, over caution. Crimea will be a "cause" for ukrops until doomsday, but a small part of Donbass, even with the coal, can eventually be forgotten. But at this notional point where DNR and LNR become part of Russia, NATO will have probably long been in Ukraine and their warships lurking in Odessa and sniffing along the coast as if it were the "Great Lakes" and their land and we will have lost a strategic battle, even if Crimea and part of Donbass have been gained. It must be all of Ukraine, or at least all except Carpathia and Galicia, and sooner rather than later or it will all be lost.

Werewolf wrote:

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:

BKP wrote:I think the fat man was right in one recent statement; the Ukes are no "brothers" of the Russian people.

They are brothers, but the kind of brothers who steal your money and show you no respect.
It is better to separate from them.

That is just the current state after the US has influenced and brainwashed the younger generations over 23 years of them being some artifical indigenous folk of their own which calls all their people "Atborderliving"  not even like all true countries when you say i move to or in a country for ukraine till this very day it says i drive at ukraine or on ukraine, because it is a border not a country and that is its name "Attheborder".

I was never really for panslavism untill that point that i realized that all slavs are brainwashed by the west to feel bad and become hostile towards russians, so all slavs are balcanized for the purpose of better conquering and control of US and that must be stopped at all cost. I am for sezession of countries and that means pan germanism, pan slavism, pan-turkism and pan-sinoism. As long those countries stay strong and united it will be harder for any country to impose their will above others. Balcanization is very bad for unipolar world and i think that is a better way than the current situation were every country is terrorized by the fat guy who calls himself the best at everything with his very high tendencies towards violance and supremacy believes.

Regarding "pan-slavism"... On the one hand I see the attraction. But, in the end, I'm wary of anything that seems like an over-arching ideology. How could it be practially implemented anyhow? Such ideologies splinter through vagaries of interpretation, and it's questionable whether they could ever really overcome countervailing forces of local nationalism and the deeply-ingrained notions of historical butthurt.

I see more advantage in a different kind of influence that does tend to become irresistible over time, naturally drawing others into it's orbit: success.

That is why I would prefer that Russia not enter into any quagmire situations trying to rescue the willfully brainwashed from themselves. Instead, it should continue to strengthen its economy and industries. The Russian economy may have just surpassed that of Germany. Great! Keep going. Russia should continue to develop its relationships with those countries where there is synergy and a basis of mutual respect. It should accelerate the big infrastructure projects like Silk Road 2.0. Keeping those things on track will be challenging enough with Washington seeking to foil them at every step of the way. Washington is probably more afraid of Russian ascendancy outside of its system of control than anything else; it sets the wrong example and gives others bad ideas. That's exactly what I want to happen.

As for Ukraine, If Crimea continues to develop and is prosperous while Ukraine's own wealth is leeched out by oligarchs and foreigners, eventually it sinks into the Ukes' skulls that they made the wrong choices. That is the future that has been laid out for them. Lying about what is plain to see in front of one's face cannot go on forever.

What is this crap talk about no uprising in Kramatorsk, Mariupol and Slavyansk? Heck, they were the original points of rebellion and hundreds died. Some people question how the Ukrainian Armed and Security Forces of almost 300,000 cannot beat the NAF. For starters, 20% of that force is occupying South East Ukraine to ensure control. Odessa alone has 3-4,000 military and security forces to ensure obedience. And the power of the Right Sector and their allies lies not in their numbers, but their ability and willingness to act as shock troops against the civilians of these areas to ensure Maidan control. Otherwise there would be more unrest and rebellion against Kiev. Just look at the popular support the government has and even how many showed up for the Rada and Presidential elections back in 2014. If memory serves me correct, the regions of the South East had voter participation from 31% to 39% for the top region turn-out. And Odessa reports 10-20 "disappearances" weekly of anyone remotely capable of organizing any resistance.

If you look at what happens in Syria, years of full scale war, never a ceasefire. Compare this with Donbas, most of the time it's ceasefire, very few casualties compared to Syria. IF Zackarchenko decides war is needed to liberate Donbas, I think it would not be possible. The Ukrainians will fight, and they will fight for every inch of Donbas. IF Zackarchenko makes the wrong decision, then Donbas could be ruined for decades without NAF liberating it just like the failed Syria uprising. The choice is difficult and the consequences will be severe. This is why Zackarchenko must think carefully what he must do. Liberate through war, or continue with ceasefire.

FSA and Islamic rebels have not been able to liberate Syria, even with thousands of US supplied TOW missiles. IF NAF does do offensive, I think NAF would not be able to liberate Donbas from Ukrainian occupation even if both sides sacrifices tens of thousands of soldiers.

Poroshenko says will never change constitution to give special status

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/poroshenko-ukrainian-constitution-would-not-include-possibility-of-giving-special-status-to-particular-cities-396789.html

Waiting it out is Russias best strategy. I honestly doubt they planned for the possibility of Donbass revolt and the foolish response of regime, since Russian response arrived some time later (the exact moment is obvious). Fact is, had there only been relatively bloodless (auslander can brief us on revealable details) Crimean return, Kiev regime couldn't cry about invasion, war, "terrorists", betrayal etc. and have the focus of nation turned towards the conflict. Even with all this, they aren't fooling anyone at home, ratings are single-digit, draft-dodging, emigration everyday practice. And the most difficult is yet to come.

How to sell mass "privatization", EU "values", utility cost increases, life quality drop, social expenditure decreases etc. to a population sick from patriotic fever?

It's not the same propping up a rebellion force near border and a country of ~40 million people, while keeping in mind all those sweet speeches and promises made to them.

NAF might have Hannibal military skills, but it doesn't have the ability nor opportunity for Cannae battle, while regime simply doesn't have the time or resources to be Cunctator. This isn't a war of total destruction, Russia made repeated statements about there being no military solution to the conflict. The way encirclements were handled is telling.

I know it is painful to watch and listen to reports about suffering and destruction, but in current geopolitical and economic situation and power disposition in the world, Russia simply doesn't have a lot of options to choose from. Of course, that is all my humble opinion, nothing that I can back with substantial proof.

Anyone know where are Givi and Motorola? They quit?

SturmGuard wrote:Waiting it out is Russias best strategy. I honestly doubt they planned for the possibility of Donbass revolt and the foolish response of regime, since Russian response arrived some time later (the exact moment is obvious). Fact is, had there only been relatively bloodless (auslander can brief us on revealable details) Crimean return, Kiev regime couldn't cry about invasion, war, "terrorists", betrayal etc. and have the focus of nation turned towards the conflict. Even with all this, they aren't fooling anyone at home, ratings are single-digit, draft-dodging, emigration everyday practice. And the most difficult is yet to come.

How to sell mass "privatization", EU "values", utility cost increases, life quality drop, social expenditure decreases etc. to a population sick from patriotic fever?

It's not the same propping up a rebellion force near border and a country of ~40 million people, while keeping in mind all those sweet speeches and promises made to them.

NAF might have Hannibal military skills, but it doesn't have the ability nor opportunity for Cannae battle, while regime simply doesn't have the time or resources to be Cunctator. This isn't a war of total destruction, Russia made repeated statements about there being no military solution to the conflict. The way encirclements were handled is telling.

I know it is painful to watch and listen to reports about suffering and destruction, but in current geopolitical and economic situation and power disposition in the world, Russia simply doesn't have a lot of options to choose from. Of course, that is all my humble opinion, nothing that I can back with substantial proof.

Makes too much sense.
Also kudos on your attempt to play the nice guy yesterday... not enough of that here sometimes.

Flagship Victory wrote:Anyone know where are Givi and Motorola? They quit?

They are busy getting ready. Both apparently have been promoted and have different roles according to rumors, circumstantial evidence, etc.

The role of NAF held Donbas is simple a frozen conflict, to prevent Ukraine from joining EU and NATO. What the Kremlin wants is a ceasefire.

However, one must keep in mind that a frozen conflict is not always possible in an ex Soviet republic. None of the Baltics had a pro Russia uprising. Also, had it not been for Crimea, Donbas and Kharkov would not have had uprisings and seizures of admin buildings.

Poroshenko says will never give special status specified under Minsk 2.

PapaDragon wrote:

Amount of credit you give to Ukraine is astounding.

Ukrainians are already eating shit sandwiches and amount of it in their diet will only be increasing.

Sooner this becomes new normal the better. Ukrainians still hope to have some form of life worth living in their lifetime. These hopes must be snuffed out.

Ukraine must not be salvaged. Fact that it was allowed to exists in it's current form after WW2 all this time is a miscarriage of justice.

Someone already said here: entire Ukraine is not worth life of one NAF soldier.

And honestly, how amateurish do you think Russian military leadership is? The moment first NATO field kitchen is seriously slated for deployment in Ukraine, NAF will unload amount of fire on ukrops that will make Midlle East look like kindergarten. Winter 2014 will be good old days.

Lot smarter, experienced and lot, lot better informed people than us are in charge of this.

Also, public opinion of the world is already shitting on Russia so do not hope for any change in that department. They never stopped shitting on Russia and never will. Everyone is aware of it except Russians it seems...

That something like "normal" relations are maintained is disturbing, but it rather suggests that Ukraine will not be allowed to totaly collapse, but become dependent. America pumped huge amounts of money into Japan and Germany after the war to the extent that both countries are essentially owned by America, as well as still occupied. I hear the argument that America cannot support 40 million in Ukraine, and do not believe it. Sure "Joe public" will not like it, but they can do it to a level that will stop total collapse. Russia says it wants a stable Ukraine, American simply wants Ukraine, both positions suggest that Ukraine will not collapse and any wait will be rather long. If NATO airmobile brigades land at Lvov, who will hit them? or if they land as close to the front as Dnepropetrovsk. As the PR against Russia can hardly get worse, then surely there is nothing to loose by going further. More sanctions can be applied, SWIFT may be stopped, but the existing sanctions hurt western companies at least as much as Russian, and I suspect more so. I really do not see any major reasons to wait as I do not see Ukraine collapsing.

Khepesh wrote:If NATO airmobile brigades land at Lvov, who will hit them?

There are plenty of US airborne troops in Lvov. As to whether they've set up base there, I have no idea. As long as Donbas and Crimea remain a frozen conflict, Ukraine cannot join EU and NATO, that's what Russia wants. It is unfortunate that the Baltic republics all joined EU and NATO. No uprising there.

Flagship Victory wrote:Anyone know where are Givi and Motorola? They quit?

Ya know, I put both your accounts on ignore along with Dforce for a reason, that reason being if all three of your brains, that's assuming you three have a brain, were dynamite, combined you wouldn't have enough to blow one nostril.

Don't know how I did it but somehow I opened this post. If I ever meet your father I'm going to belt him right square in the mouth for not using a Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company Heavy Duty Dual Layer Acid Dipped Flame Thrower Umbrella Tip Condom, spermicide, germicide, douche, rhythm method, abstinence, withdrawal method, vasectomy, tube tie, wire tie, benzine, amputation, whatever, anything to avoid producing you.

auslander wrote:

Ya know, I put both your accounts on ignore along with Dforce for a reason, that reason being if all three of your brains, that's assuming you three have a brain, were dynamite, combined you wouldn't have enough to blow one nostril.

Don't know how I did it but somehow I opened this post. If I ever meet your father I'm going to belt him right square in the mouth for not using a Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company Heavy Duty Dual Layer Acid Dipped Flame Thrower Umbrella Tip Condom, spermicide, germicide, douche, rhythm method, abstinence, withdrawal method, vasectomy, tube tie, wire tie, benzine, amputation, whatever, anything to avoid producing you.    

Khepesh wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

Amount of credit you give to Ukraine is astounding.

Ukrainians are already eating shit sandwiches and amount of it in their diet will only be increasing.

Sooner this becomes new normal the better. Ukrainians still hope to have some form of life worth living in their lifetime. These hopes must be snuffed out.

Ukraine must not be salvaged. Fact that it was allowed to exists in it's current form after WW2 all this time is a miscarriage of justice.

Someone already said here: entire Ukraine is not worth life of one NAF soldier.

And honestly, how amateurish do you think Russian military leadership is? The moment first NATO field kitchen is seriously slated for deployment in Ukraine, NAF will unload amount of fire on ukrops that will make Midlle East look like kindergarten. Winter 2014 will be good old days.

Lot smarter, experienced and lot, lot better informed people than us are in charge of this.

Also, public opinion of the world is already shitting on Russia so do not hope for any change in that department. They never stopped shitting on Russia and never will. Everyone is aware of it except Russians it seems...

That something like "normal" relations are maintained is disturbing, but it rather suggests that Ukraine will not be allowed to totaly collapse, but become dependent. America pumped huge amounts of money into Japan and Germany after the war to the extent that both countries are essentially owned by America, as well as still occupied. I hear the argument that America cannot support 40 million in Ukraine, and do not believe it. Sure "Joe public" will not like it, but they can do it to a level that will stop total collapse. Russia says it wants a stable Ukraine, American simply wants Ukraine, both positions suggest that Ukraine will not collapse and any wait will be rather long. If NATO airmobile brigades land at Lvov, who will hit them? or if they land as close to the front as Dnepropetrovsk. As the PR against Russia can hardly get worse, then surely there is nothing to loose by going further. More sanctions can be applied, SWIFT may be stopped, but the existing sanctions hurt western companies at least as much as Russian, and I suspect more so. I really do not see any major reasons to wait as I do not see Ukraine collapsing.

Mr. Putin has made it patently clear that Novorossiya will not lose, will not be defeated, and de facto it's obvious that US will do the same for 404. We are quietly being advised to get things in order, the next round of sanctions will bite, no doubt, effect on EU and others be damned.

EU will continue to take it in the skivvies simply because they have no other option and precisely zero backbone to boot. Byelorus will be the next target, them and Gruzya (again). I don't know what the red line is for Mockba but I know there is one. Whatever happens, the next outbreak of real fighting up north will bring a condition very close to outright war between US and RF although technically the war has started, just not shooting. Yet.