The Situation in the Ukraine. #23

PapaDragon wrote:

Having a foothold in a cesspool in hardly positive outcome.

That is a very naive viewpoint. The condition of Ukraine is totaly irrelevant, what is relevent is Washington making Ukraine their own and positioning their forces in Ukraine. Construction of US naval base in Odessa takes place and I cannot understand now this can be ignored or brushed aside with "sit and wait and all will be good" rhetoric. I will formulate a longer reply later as most of what you have said is either wrong, not the full picture or some rhetorical slogan.

All indications are that an attack is eminent. In addition to considerable numbers of troops sent to the fronts with all their equipment, armor, arty and such those champions of peace and fairness, OSCE, have been supposedly run off by a couple mortar rounds landing a good distance from them. How convenient.

^ OSCE have today refused to return to Yasinovataya because they say they are in danger from very heavy sniper fire. They of course do not say that it is ukrops sniper fire, simply leave the question open, and because they have an excuse to not be at Yasinovataya, cannot report on what might be about to happen, so "see nothing, hear nothing, say nothing". The main road and railway line between Donetsk and Gorlovka could be cut, maybe an advance a little beyond, perhaps to Yakovlovka. Kiev will be shielded from adverse criticism, the excuse will be "To protect Avdeevka from seperatists attacks" and it is Avdeevka that foreign journalists have been reporting from recently, interviewing locals about how "terrible" it for them from constant "VSN" bombardment, and of course OSCE were not there and know nothing.

It will not be the fabled "offensive" and the re-enforced 58th Brigade are force protection for the "mini pocket" to be formed if there is a serious counter attack. The danger for all is that it could get out of control, ukrops will hope that while they cannot achieve surprise, then can achieve force superiority in that very small area. At minimum to cut the road and railway they only need to advance a few hundred meters and dig in, and not even really be in a pocket. If this does not trigger wider action, then various jaws will be flapped, Minsk 2.5 will be announced and life will continue, but more difficult for the people of Gorlovka.

This is not definite that ukrops will make at least localised heavy assault, but it all looks like it is coming. Today was a very small scale attack and people are saying "nothing to see, all over so go back to sleep", but military operations are not like that and ukrops, no matter now bad they are, do not try to take the road and rail with a platoon, they are simply probing and harrasment operations. There are no reports of any serious fights or advances, yet military maps have just put a large red enemy advance arrow on Yasinovataya. Perhaps they jump the gun or have some information, stuffing or not, that others do not have.

There was a news report with video footage on 1TV yesterday IIRC. I was busy with other stuff so naturally I didn't pay enough attention but I could swear there was a VSN group running around back and forth. It looked like action had resumed. Anyone got it?

Reports in the last hour from residents of Dokuchaevsk that VSN positions are under artillery fire from ukrops, that they see fire coming down on fields and hear the sounds of battle. No confirmation of this from VSN.

Neutrality wrote:There was a news report with video footage on 1TV yesterday IIRC. I was busy with other stuff so naturally I didn't pay enough attention but I could swear there was a VSN group running around back and forth. It looked like action had resumed. Anyone got it?

Maybe that was their report on the journalists under ukrops fire at Yasinovataya yesterday, I saw Basurin with them and lots of guys all running about looking tacticool etc

Khepesh wrote:

Neutrality wrote:There was a news report with video footage on 1TV yesterday IIRC. I was busy with other stuff so naturally I didn't pay enough attention but I could swear there was a VSN group running around back and forth. It looked like action had resumed. Anyone got it?

Maybe that was their report on the journalists under ukrops fire at Yasinovataya yesterday, I saw Basurin with them and lots of guys all running about looking tacticool etc

That might be it. Do you have the video?

Video embeded in the page http://www.1tv.ru/news/world/303445

Khepesh wrote:Video embeded in the page http://www.1tv.ru/news/world/303445

Thanks!

Kiev media are reporting that the attacks on Yasinovataya are "provocations" and that it is VSN who attack themselves for benefit of journalists. They blame all recent attacks on "provocations" and say that major provocations will occur from today and tomorrow. They say that these provocations will not only be against ATO, but that VSN will bombard DNR civillian areas and blame it on Kiev. This is simplistic propaganda that will have Goebbels laughing in his grave, but too many simply accept news at face value and will not question it. Also it is what western media want to hear and relay to the sheeple. That Kiev is now making noises about impending VSN "provocation" against own people can be seen that it is Kiev who is perhaps about to attack. Perhaps the blockpost at Yasinovataya, even tho it is VSN controlled, will be the new Gleiwitz.

Ukrainian media are generous. Always update us on the plans of the VSU. So what I'm getting from this is that the attack is certain but where and when might be disinformation.

sepheronx wrote:I have not heard of this odessa base for US navy as it was pure wishful thinking back in 2014.  Makes less sense now strategically due to Crimea and anti ship missiles would be a nightmare for US.  Instead, theor Vassal Romania is their US navy base in Black sea.  That said, they didnt even bother with building one in more stable Georgia when they had the chance.  Their aim was crimea, they lost.  Now the rest is Ukraine itself - a failed state with big ambitions.

So far, if there will be an attack (we been told one was imminent for a while now), it may be Ukraines last.  US wont save them, like how they didnt save their boy Saaka first time round.

Thanks for saving me some time Seph, you read my mind there.


Also splash of reality in Guardian, looks like editors took a day off or something:

''Why Ukraine needs Russia more than ever''

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/09/ukraine-needs-russia-nicolai-petro

Too bad for Ukraine that reverse no longer applies.

Still no media warmup in MSM about ''Russian invasion of 404"

PapaDragon wrote:


Still no media warmup in MSM about ''Russian invasion of 404"

http://112.ua/ato/boeviki-9-10-marta-gotovyat-provokacionnye-deystviya--press-centr-shtaba-ato-296823.html

Karl Haushofer wrote:And those who say that "Belarus is safe", don't underestimate the West! They are capable of a lot more evil than one would think.

Belarus lacks something Ukraine did not, an influential anti-Russian/pro-Western opposition.

PapaDragon wrote:

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:................

It will cost Russia so much that it will be worth it.

............

It will not cost Russia squat. It will cost Ukraine dearly though but that is the objective (Russia's objective).

Why would it cost Russia anyway? You speak of Ukraine like it has some kind of value or something. It does not. Not for a very long time.

Economy is gone, population is expendable and real-estate will be partitioned and rearranged according to Russia's needs. Done.

Then why are you expecting "whole country will go up in flames again"?
Ukrainians want do that for you or Russia.
Either Russia intervenes which is going to cost a lot or it does not and nothing bad for Ukraine is going to happen.

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:.......................

Then why are you expecting "whole country will go up in flames again"?
Ukrainians want do that for you or Russia.
Either Russia intervenes which is going to cost a lot or it does not and nothing bad for Ukraine is going to happen.

Have you completely forgot about NAF? Keep up with events man.

Khepesh wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:


Still no media warmup in MSM about ''Russian invasion of 404"

http://112.ua/ato/boeviki-9-10-marta-gotovyat-provokacionnye-deystviya--press-centr-shtaba-ato-296823.html

I meant ACTUAL media, ones that folks in the west read not some ukrop BS factory.

It is western audience that needs the warm-up not some neo Nazi brainless biomass in 404.

In his briefing today Basurin has confirmed that VSN positions at Dokuchaevsk had come under bombardment, also that the attack on Yasinovataya was in a little more force than previously thought, it was not a platoon, but two re-enforced companies. He further said that when it was demanded of ATO that the ceasefire be observed, the reply from ATO general Taran was "Give Yasinovataya and there will be ceasfire". Basurin also, and for first time I think, has said that ukrops have brought forward "Smerch" batteries so they are now in range of the front, in this case they are seen near Mariupol.

PapaDragon wrote:

I meant ACTUAL media, ones that folks in the west read not some ukrop BS factory.

It is western audience that needs the warm-up not  some neo Nazi brainless biomass in 404.

You are dancing on head of pin and your posts are, curious, and seemingly not in interests of Donbass.

Khepesh wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

I meant ACTUAL media, ones that folks in the west read not some ukrop BS factory.

It is western audience that needs the warm-up not  some neo Nazi brainless biomass in 404.

You are dancing on head of pin and your posts are, curious, and seemingly not in interests of Donbass.

Yes, my cover is blown, I am Ukrainian infiltrator who had been working this distinguished group for past 3 years....


Now seriously long story short: Kiev is desperate, money and support is thin to nonexistent, they will attack and get slaughtered by NAF as expected. Not a big mystery.

PapaDragon wrote:

I meant ACTUAL media, ones that folks in the west read not some ukrop BS factory.

It is western audience that needs the warm-up not  some neo Nazi brainless biomass in 404.

We are seeing no 'warm up' at all here in the UK.

The whole situation is very strange, in some ways it is as if the US has, following events not going to plan here or in Syria, set Kiev adrift to see what happens. Whilst (no cost) political support is offered, financial support from the IMF has stopped and little is coming from elsewhere. Militarily, apart from training there is not much other than a few bits of gear here and there.

I have little doubt that a factor in that is that, following the actions in Syria and the 'lets blame Moscow for it' Minsk non implementation, NATO is expecting a now fully prepared Russia to hit back very hard and very fast in the event of Kiev striking East. Then to get out fast, almost before any 'Russia is coming for us' panic can be created in the West. Russia is already sanctioned so not a lot more the West can do to punish it without really cutting its nose off.

As Khepesh implies, the only real option Kiev has, if it is to avoid that response, is to nibble away at the front, never doing enough at a particular moment to trigger a real response. Perhaps at some point the VSN are themselves going to have to activate a more aggressive defence which may force Kiev's hand to do more than just nibble and then try to blame it all on the 'terrorists'.

Kiev's problem at that point is that no-one will give a toss as to who actually started it as there will be no blowback that can compare with the hit they are about to take. But then Kiev is staring down the two barrels of a shotgun anyway, one loaded with a financial collapse cartridge and the other with Right Wing buckshot.

PapaDragon wrote:

Khepesh wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

I meant ACTUAL media, ones that folks in the west read not some ukrop BS factory.

It is western audience that needs the warm-up not  some neo Nazi brainless biomass in 404.

You are dancing on head of pin and your posts are, curious, and seemingly not in interests of Donbass.

Yes,  my cover is blown, I  am Ukrainian infiltrator who had been working this distinguished group for past 3 years....


Now seriously long story short: Kiev is desperate, money and support is thin to nonexistent, they will attack and get slaughtered by NAF as expected.  Not a big mystery.

Yet you are posting against me, and all my posts are for Donbass and Novorossiya as a whole.

You make a statement that conflicts with what you have previously said. You say it is not a mystery that Kiev will attack, yet you have consistantly said they will not. Which position do you actually hold?. Mine is clear and I have never twisted about, and that is that Kiev has no option but to attack as the longer they wait the harder it will be for them, and conversely, the longer Putin lets the situation continue as a frozen conflict, then the harder it gets to do anything to retrieve the situation and Ukraine will become an American satellite. I do not understand how my analysis of this causes so much grief.

Khepesh wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

Khepesh wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

I meant ACTUAL media, ones that folks in the west read not some ukrop BS factory.

It is western audience that needs the warm-up not  some neo Nazi brainless biomass in 404.

You are dancing on head of pin and your posts are, curious, and seemingly not in interests of Donbass.

Yes,  my cover is blown, I  am Ukrainian infiltrator who had been working this distinguished group for past 3 years....


Now seriously long story short: Kiev is desperate, money and support is thin to nonexistent, they will attack and get slaughtered by NAF as expected.  Not a big mystery.

Yet you are posting against me, and all my posts are for Donbass and Novorossiya as a whole.

You make a statement that conflicts with what you have previously said. You say it is not a mystery that Kiev will attack, yet you have consistantly said they will not. Which position do you actually hold?. Mine is clear and I have never twisted about, and that is that Kiev has no option but to attack as the longer they wait the harder it will be for them, and conversely, the longer Putin lets the situation continue as a frozen conflict, then the harder it gets to do anything to retrieve the situation and Ukraine will become an American satellite. I do not understand how my analysis of this causes so much grief.

I am saying that Kiev has two options left and that both are bad for them (suicidal actually). I do not know what those idiots will do, if I did I would have told already.

I am not trying to start some big argument here Khepesh, I wish best of luck for NAF regardless what Kiev opts to do. That is all.