Russian Air Force numbers and procurement plans

Well, I think his numbers for 2027 are generally accurate, especially when it comes to tactical aircraft. I and AMCXXL have come to very similar conclusions on this very forum.

Are you saying that they are only going to order Su-57s after 2018/20? That Russia is going to stop buying additional Su-35s and Su-34s, in particular? Why? How?

All the remaining planes are going to be replaced by Su-57s? That they're going to somehow order more than a squadron worth of Su-57s annually?

1. keep in mind that Russia didn't order more than a hundred Su-35s between 2010 and 2020, so how many Su-57 could they possibly have in 2030? and 2. that Su-57 is Russia's F-22, not F-35, there were never any plans to procure more than 200-250 of them for the RuAF.

miketheterrible wrote:He is the asshole who gets wet Everytime some US government IP is shown on his site.

He is a shitty "think tank". Why people still help him financially by posting his trash site is beyond me.

You are confusing this guy with Russian Defense Policy blogger. This guy is an American academic of Russian descent. He is considered one of the top Russian analyst in the West. My take is that he is fair (ie not a hater but definitely pro west) as possible considering who pays him, plus it is always informative to see how the other side sees things.

franco wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:He is the asshole who gets wet Everytime some US government IP is shown on his site.

He is a shitty "think tank". Why people still help him financially by posting his trash site is beyond me.

You are confusing this guy with Russian Defense Policy blogger. This guy is an American academic of Russian descent. He is considered one of the top Russian analyst in the West. My take is that he is fair (ie not a hater but definitely pro west) as possible considering who pays him, plus it is always informative to see how the other side sees things.

you are probably right like most of the time. But I trust what this guy says with a grain of salt.

miketheterrible wrote:

franco wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:He is the asshole who gets wet Everytime some US government IP is shown on his site.

He is a shitty "think tank". Why people still help him financially by posting his trash site is beyond me.

You are confusing this guy with Russian Defense Policy blogger. This guy is an American academic of Russian descent. He is considered one of the top Russian analyst in the West. My take is that he is fair (ie not a hater but definitely pro west) as possible considering who pays him, plus it is always informative to see how the other side sees things.

you are probably right like most of the time.  But I trust what this guy says with a grain of salt.

Good idea
I'm afraid I don't trust any of them...but then I'm a skeptic

franco wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:He is the asshole who gets wet Everytime some US government IP is shown on his site.

He is a shitty "think tank". Why people still help him financially by posting his trash site is beyond me.

You are confusing this guy with Russian Defense Policy blogger. This guy is an American academic of Russian descent. He is considered one of the top Russian analyst in the West. My take is that he is fair (ie not a hater but definitely pro west) as possible considering who pays him, plus it is always informative to see how the other side sees things.

AGAIN with that 2027 mismatch!
It seem that they just didn't get that such date has to be intended as the terminal limit of a ten year long (and delayed by two years due the Ukraine crisis) acquisition program, so they think that the Su-57 with Objekt 30 will not be delivered before of that date!

When instead the first of the "2027" planes to be delivered has made it's first flight just this week under the name "Petr Deinekin".

And the Acquisition Programmes regard much more the quantity and the types of planes that would result at the end of the process than what would be the exact model, the price of it and when exactly ( i.e.what year) it would be acquired.
This is made precisely with the purpose of get the more possible flexibility.

Here some real life examples of how the System work, both for the worst than for the best:
Example 1:
The development of Su-35 is getting late while some of our legacy plane are approaching the end of their scheduled life: No panic, let's immediately made a contract for 16 newly built Su-27SM3 to replace them in the meantime that thing get fixed.
Example 2:
Yak-130 not just fulfill our needs for advanced training and has also proved able to decisively cut the needed hours for OCU transition (as M-346 also does in AMI): Great, let's divert 12 of the 20 Su-30Mk2 we build  specifically for such role to equip an operative squadron and let's upgrade just 6-8 Su-27P to SM3 standard so we will have a full operative squadron at a still modern standard to add at them and form a full regiment ASAP.
The remaining 30-36 Su-27P would instead stay in service as they are, given that Su-57 program, thank God, is on schedule, so no need to spend money on planes that would soon be replaced.
So, it's impossible to know now how many of each types of planes would be acquired in such a long period.
What we know it that in the period they want to phase out:

The earlier Su-27: so Su-35 or/and Su-57-30 there.
The MiG-29S: Only thing almost certain there is 24 Mig-35 for the ones operating in Armenia, for the ones actually in reserve it will be between Su-30SM2 and others Mig-35.
The remaining Su-24, both for Navy than for Recon: Su-34M2.

New primary and basic trainers: Yak-152 or a mix of it and SR-10, in the second case 0% chance for new Yak-130 but very few also in the first case.

Modernization instead for Su-25 and a second batch of MiG-31, no upgrade for Su-27SM (as they would be retired in the 2021-2030 one).

Both Tu-160 and Tu-160m2 would also be included in such programme, Pak-Da would instead surely fall in the 2021-2030 acquisition programme while the "Mig-41"could even be finalized for the (beginning of) 2028-2037 one.

Kimppis wrote:Well, I think his numbers for 2027 are generally accurate, especially when it comes to tactical aircraft. I and AMCXXL have come to very similar conclusions on this very forum.

Are you saying that they are only going to order Su-57s after 2018/20? That Russia is going to stop buying additional Su-35s and Su-34s, in particular? Why? How?  

All the remaining planes are going to be replaced by Su-57s? That they're going to somehow order more than a squadron worth of Su-57s annually?

1. keep in mind that Russia didn't order more than a hundred Su-35s between 2010 and 2020, so how many Su-57 could they possibly have in 2030? and 2. that Su-57 is Russia's F-22, not F-35, there were never any plans to procure more than 200-250 of them for the RuAF.  

Talking about Fighters, the main order will be of Su-57, which is the most advanced of all them. Its age begins in Russia. Number of Su-57, it depends.
It is possible also some small order of Su-35, with the 30 that remain from the current order there is little room for more.
It is possible some small order of MiG-35, but I would not be surprised if there is not, it would not be negative.
I do not expect new orders of Su-30, with the 18 that remain from the current order is enough.
And it opens the door to export the Su-35, MiG-35 and Su-30 in significant numbers.

About Strategic Bombers, the effort in production of Tu-160 is likely to be strong. There is a rythm previewed of stable production. In adition of its role as nuclear weapons launcher, the role of this aircraft will be important in the Arctic, in the Pacific, and in South West Asia, where hostile air defenses are of limited presence. The Strategic Bombers very likely will take in the future the armed side of the maritime patrol role, while the UAVS will take the side of patrol, early warning, surveillance, reconnaissance,...

Another important part of the procurement would be the related with the first units of the Tu-PAK-DA, the MiG-41 and some models of auxiliary aircrafts and helicopters that I commented in other topics.

About Fighter Ground Attack, I expect some new order of Su-34. Also this aircraft has a strong potential to export. The total retirement of the Su-24 is unlikely in decades because in overall terms is a more capable aircraft, remains more modern as military concept and is better adapted than the Su-25 to the current wars with increasing presence of air defense.

And finally talking about auxiliary aircrafts, Russia will finnish the process of reduction of their fleet that begins after the end of the Soviet Union. For trainers, for transport aircrafts, for airlines and for other "engineering" aircrafts, while advances in the development of modern alternatives.
It means minimum number of new orders and selective use of the aircrafts and models of aircrafts to be exhausted first.
I do not expect to be completed the procurement of new units of the L-410, the An-140 and the An-148.
I do not expect to be completed the presence of the SR-10, the DA42, the Il-112 and the Il-114 in the Russian Armed Forces.

Personaly i doubt the Tu-160 number. 50 new heavy bombers in what, 9 years? The production probably wont start up again for real before 2020 so then they have to deliver 7 aircrafts a year.
If they get half of that i will be suprised.

walle83 wrote:Personaly i doubt the Tu-160 number. 50 new heavy bombers in what, 9 years? The production probably wont start up again for real before 2020 so then they have to deliver 7 aircrafts a year.
If they get half of that i will be suprised.

The 50 number is a projection up to 2035

Cyberspec wrote:

walle83 wrote:Personaly i doubt the Tu-160 number. 50 new heavy bombers in what, 9 years? The production probably wont start up again for real before 2020 so then they have to deliver 7 aircrafts a year.
If they get half of that i will be suprised.

The 50 number is a projection up to 2035

I was just quoting the blogg https://russiamil.wordpress.com/2018/01/24/russian-air-force-procurement-plans-2/

walle83 wrote:

Cyberspec wrote:

walle83 wrote:Personaly i doubt the Tu-160 number. 50 new heavy bombers in what, 9 years? The production probably wont start up again for real before 2020 so then they have to deliver 7 aircrafts a year.
If they get half of that i will be suprised.

The 50 number is a projection up to 2035

I was just quoting the blogg https://russiamil.wordpress.com/2018/01/24/russian-air-force-procurement-plans-2/

The blogs has big mistakes
Has been announced that the serial production will start slowly, with 2 or 3 per year and later about 5 or 6 , so probably production will continue for 15 years
Also the Tu-160M2 will replace the Tu-95MS 1:1 , this is 50 airplanes for the 3 regiments in service (48) , and one or two couples for other units (test , training). Then when the 50 Tu-160M2 are in service , the number of Tu-95 will be zero

And the same with other airplanes: PaK-DA replaces Tu-22M3 , Su-35 replaces Su-27 , etc...

The number of Su-30SM will be more than 200, at least 220 or even near 250.
The Navy will have another army VVSiPVO in the Pacific, so more regiments will be raised:
-VVS will have at least 116 Su-30SM with the existing units (3 regiments+ two seaters for Su-35 regiments+training units+display...) or 140 with a fourth regiment,
-Navy more of 100 Su-30 with 4 regiments (one per fleet) and other units

Su-35 will be 165-170 in the VVS. Could reach 200 or more when Navy replaces the Su-27 of Kaliningrad or even raise other regiment in North District (Kilp Yarv?).
In 2027 RuAF will not operates any Su-27 in current regiments. The only squadron of new Su-27SM3 could be moved to Syria or even sold to Assad. and the same with the modernized that will not operate more that 10 years

Kimppis wrote:Well, I think his numbers for 2027 are generally accurate, especially when it comes to tactical aircraft. I and AMCXXL have come to very similar conclusions on this very forum.

Are you saying that they are only going to order Su-57s after 2018/20? That Russia is going to stop buying additional Su-35s and Su-34s, in particular? Why? How?  

All the remaining planes are going to be replaced by Su-57s? That they're going to somehow order more than a squadron worth of Su-57s annually?

1. keep in mind that Russia didn't order more than a hundred Su-35s between 2010 and 2020, so how many Su-57 could they possibly have in 2030? and 2. that Su-57 is Russia's F-22, not F-35, there were never any plans to procure more than 200-250 of them for the RuAF.  

Russia will continue buying Su-34 , Su-35 and Su-30SM in the same rates that now (aproximately)
Russia will buy every year at least one squadron of Su-35 and Su-34 until Su-27 and SU-24 are totally replaced.
In the case of Su-30SM about 20 airplanes/year for VVS and Navy
For 2020 the most of soviet not-modernized combat airplanes shuold be replaced (Su-27, Mig-29,Su-24) or modernized (MiG-31 , Su-25)
Only a few MiG-29 (mainly two seaters of instruction units) and the Su-24MR will continue in service after 2020 , waiting for replacement of MiG-35 and Su-34M

The Su-57 Project is still green. For 2020 only 12 airplanes and after that low rates of purchases, not more of 8-10 per year for at least ane dozen of years
In adition Rusia cannot buy all the airplanes they need in 10 years. The VVS rearming is a long-term planning of at least 20 years
Su-57 is not a priority rigth now, but it is a neccesary step for 6º generation. I dont think that finally Russia will purchase more of 4 or 5 regiments
You ony have to think that USA has 160 really full-equiped F-22

walle83 wrote:

Cyberspec wrote:

walle83 wrote:Personaly i doubt the Tu-160 number. 50 new heavy bombers in what, 9 years? The production probably wont start up again for real before 2020 so then they have to deliver 7 aircrafts a year.
If they get half of that i will be suprised.

The 50 number is a projection up to 2035

I was just quoting the blogg https://russiamil.wordpress.com/2018/01/24/russian-air-force-procurement-plans-2/

A rate of 7-10 aircrafts per year is nothing outstanding. Russia has the capability of production for it, and more.

As example the Su-SJ-100 had this level of production in the last years:

2012 12 units
2013 24 units
2014 35 units
2015 18 units
2016 19 units
2017 33 units

https://russianplanes.net/planelist/Sukhoi/SuperJet-100

Other example: the Soviet Union produced over 60 Il-76 per year in most of the decade of the 1980s, with many other aircrafts.

The production of the Su-30 and the Su-35 will continue at the current rates, but with a difference, the number of aircrafts for the Russian Armed Forces will decrease at the end of the current orders (maybe until 0), while the number of aircrafts attending foreign orders will increase.

Someone has to explain me why would Russia produce aircrafts under the level of the F-22, cutting with it part of the way to their export, being able to produce aircrafts over the F-22, opening with it a bigger window to the production of units of capable aircrafts to export to the best friends.

Russian orders will move to the most modern aircraft, in affordable numbers, taking into account that future orders of the Su-30, Su-35 and the MiG-35 would make lower the affordable number of Su-57. And this is something that Russia does not want. The units of Su-57 produced now can be more expensive, but also have longer life before becoming obsolete and before to create a need of replacement.

The Russian budget will go clearly toward the Su-57 over previous other options, like will go clearly toward the Bumerang APC over the BTR-80.

To talk about the number of F-22 in the US forces as a limit for the production of the Su-57, makes not sense, even is a rare argument. The US can restart its production when they want, and is very likely they do it in the following years.

Reading your comments here, it seems RuAF will soon retire not only basic Su-27 jets but SU-27SM jets as well. in this case I don't see any sense to use new build Su-30M2 as trainers for Su-27SM squadrons. They already have trained pilots which will fly with them for few years until their retirement. 20 Su-30M2 could be used for combat units. One squadron of 12 Su-30M2 should serve as the second combat squadron together with 12 new build Su-27SM3 in Krymsk air base. Other 8 could be used for RuAF bases outside Russia, like in Syria or in Armenia or in Tajikistan, together with 6 newly modernized Su-27SM3.

medo wrote:Reading your comments here, it seems RuAF will soon retire not only basic Su-27 jets but SU-27SM jets as well. in this case I don't see any sense to use new build Su-30M2 as trainers for Su-27SM squadrons. They already have trained pilots which will fly with them for few years until their retirement. 20 Su-30M2 could be used for combat units. One squadron of 12 Su-30M2 should serve as the second combat squadron together with 12 new build Su-27SM3 in Krymsk air base. Other 8 could be used for RuAF bases outside Russia, like in Syria or in Armenia or in Tajikistan, together with 6 newly modernized Su-27SM3.

Su-27SM were modernized until 2004 and 2009. By 2025 all will be replaced by more Su-35, only with buying more Su-35 in the current rate of about one squadron per year.
Su-30M2 is not for combat, are for replace Su-27UB. In long term will end at instructions unit (Kuschevskaya, etc..), as now in combat units are Su-30SM
I dont understand the nonsense that are for Su-27SM units as Su-27SM has between 27 and 31 years old and will be replaced before next 10 years.Probably for 2025 in the VVS.
The Su-27SM3 and "Algerian" Mig-29SMT were a emergency pacht in 2009-2010 under the commnand of the infamous General Zenlin and RuAF gets rid of them.
They will go to units of instruction or units outside Russia, or well they will be sold to some ally like Syria

Su-30M2 are not for replacing Su-27UB. They are made as trainers for Su-27SM fighters, because they are on the same technological level as Su-27SM3. Su-27UB are still active for standard Su-27 units and will be retired together with other vanila Su-27 jets. Su-27SM are also old planes, so they will be retired soon after standard Su-27, but Su-30M2 are new built jets. They are of no use for instruction unit as they are not technologicaly on the same level with Su-35, not to say with Su-57. Su-30SM is better suited for that job and they are already trainers in Su-35 regiments.

Su-30M2 is multirole jet, of course today more suited for strike roles than air superiority fighter, because radar is slowly becoming obsolete in fifth gen era. But it is still a big waste not to use properly its combat capabilities. 20 Su-30M2 would be enough for around 100 Su-27SM/SM3 to serve as trainers in their regiments. But RuAF didn't go for modernizing of 36 Su-27 to SM3 level and older SMs will slowly be retired and replaced by SU-35. They could still serve well in foreign bases as they have long range, they are twin seaters, have IFR capabilities, etc, to protect and support Russian units there. After all, they are well suited for patroling along long border with Afghanistan from Tadjik or Kyrgiz bases.

MiG-29SMT could serve in Armenia, which is smaller state and long range is not that needed performance.

medo wrote:Su-30M2 are not for replacing Su-27UB. They are made as trainers for Su-27SM fighters, because they are on the same technological level as Su-27SM3. Su-27UB are still active for standard Su-27 units and will be retired together with other vanila Su-27 jets. Su-27SM are also old planes, so they will be retired soon after standard Su-27, but Su-30M2 are new built jets. They are of no use for instruction unit as they are not technologicaly on the same level with Su-35, not to say with Su-57. Su-30SM is better suited for that job and they are already trainers in Su-35 regiments.

Su-30M2 is multirole jet, of course today more suited for strike roles than air superiority fighter, because radar is slowly becoming obsolete in fifth gen era. But it is still a big waste not to use properly its combat capabilities. 20 Su-30M2 would be enough for around 100 Su-27SM/SM3 to serve as trainers in their regiments. But RuAF didn't go for modernizing of 36 Su-27 to SM3 level and older SMs will slowly be retired and replaced by SU-35. They could still serve well in foreign bases as they have long range, they are twin seaters, have IFR capabilities, etc, to protect and support Russian units there. After all, they are well suited for patroling along long border with Afghanistan from Tadjik or Kyrgiz bases.

MiG-29SMT could serve in Armenia, which is smaller state and long range is not that needed performance.

Su-30M2 are only a political purchase for give job to KnAAPO. Really are not necesary , as MiG-29SMT.
Su-27SM had for more of a decade Su-27UB as two seater because is not necesary modernization or upgrading for fligth instruction.
In fact some aircrafts as MiG-29UB and Su-27UB of instruction units have not combat radar, only have skills for fllght.

Also the Su-30M2 has not the complete packet unlike the Su-30MK2.
You will not see any misile , pod or other elements in any of the hundreds of pictures of Su-30M2. This plane is only used for flight learning.
The Su-30M2 are stationed in South district , for instruction of new pilots in new regiments (Belbek and Krymsk , just rebuilt after the unit closed in 2011)
In other cases only fill the gap until more Su-30SM will come or even are used for conversión to Su-30 of foreign pilots as in Vladivostock

You have a magic way of thinking. Please dont read more westerns aviation magazines.
At least 10 Su-30M2 will go to Kuschevskaya by 2020 for replace the Su-27UB squadron and probably finally all 20 will go to this regiment, as MiG-29UB is not necesary there , because now there are not combat regiments of MiG-29
Currently , all the Su-27 regiments, even Krymsk , have several Su-27UB for tactical job with those squadrons.

Political decision or not, Su-27SM3, Su-30M2 and MiG-29SMT were bought, because RuAF in that time need new multirole jets and they were the ones, which they could purchase quickly. After first 4 Su-30m2 were delivered, RuAF bought additional 16 Su-30M2 and now they have 20 of them. Few years ago RuAF also bought 16 additional MiG-29SMT and 2 MiG-29UBM. RuAF need minimal number of available jets to protect large air space. Su-27SM3, Su-30M2 and MiG-29SMT could protect less exposed air space, while Su-35 and Su-30SM will protect more exposed air space to NATO or other enemy.

True, for now we see Su-30M2 armed only with air to air missiles. To be honest, we didn't see other armament on Su-27SM as well, but they are both capable to use them. This is mostly because RuAF only now start to fill their stocks of PGMs with larger quantities and Su-34 have priority to be armed with guided weapons. We didn't see any pod on Su-30M2, but we didn't see any for now on Su-30SM either. Those pods for now go on Su-34 and Su-35 first. Su-30M2 is full combat jet and is used with units, which use Su-27SM in Belbek, Krymsk and Vladivostok.

MiG-29UB doesn't have radar, Su-27UB have radar. Ex-Algerian MiG-29SMT are export planes, so maybe RuAF will deliver some of them to Syrian AF, as they are replaced now with Su-30SM. But Su-27SM3, Su-30M2 and latest MiG-29SMT are russian standard jets and they will stay in RuAF. If they realy are not necessary for RuAF, they could be later delivered to Novorussian AF, when Russia will recognize Novorussia as independent state. In the mean time RuAF academies could start training future Novorussian pilots for them. Considering, that Ukraine end Minsk agreement, the path for independent state of Novorussia is active again and Novorussia as any independent state will need its own air force. A squadron of Su-30M2 or MiG-29SMT would be ideal for them.

eehnie wrote:

walle83 wrote:

Cyberspec wrote:

walle83 wrote:Personaly i doubt the Tu-160 number. 50 new heavy bombers in what, 9 years? The production probably wont start up again for real before 2020 so then they have to deliver 7 aircrafts a year.
If they get half of that i will be suprised.

The 50 number is a projection up to 2035

I was just quoting the blogg https://russiamil.wordpress.com/2018/01/24/russian-air-force-procurement-plans-2/

A rate of 7-10 aircrafts per year is nothing outstanding. Russia has the capability of production for it, and more.

As example the Su-SJ-100 had this level of production in the last years:

2012 12 units
2013 24 units
2014 35 units
2015 18 units
2016 19 units
2017 33 units

https://russianplanes.net/planelist/Sukhoi/SuperJet-100

Other example: the Soviet Union produced over 60 Il-76 per year in most of the decade of the 1980s, with many other aircrafts.

Yeah, but its quite a big difference between having the capability with money and without money. I would think that getting the Tu-160 production line working again will it self be a big challange. Then getting finance for 50 new airframes deliverd and put in service will be ha another huge challange. And to this in less then 10 years will be a near impossible challange. To 2035 it might work, offocurce by then Putin and his gouverment will be long gone and who knows what defence priorities Russia will have then.

http://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/4939658
Yuri Borisov (deputy head of the department of Defence): "This year, the volume of the production program of Irkut- only 24 aircraft: 10 Yak-130 aircraft, 12 Su-30SM for VKS and 2 for the Navy

"Yak-130 - now 92 aircraft in the ranks, there are plans to purchase further, we will discuss a long-term contract, this year we will conclude it," the deputy minister said.
He added that within the framework of the State Armament Program a large contract will be signed for Su-30SM aircraft.

Then , this year 12 Su-30SM will be recived again by VKS , as the previous years. At this rate, VKS could be completed of Su-30SM in 2020 if no more regiments are raised.
While the Navy only 2, as there are not pilots enough in the Navy and there are not hurry for more airplanes at this moment , while formimg new pilots.
Only for the existing military units , are necesary about 28 Su-30SM for the VKS and about 50 for Navy more than the currently contracted.

AMCXXL wrote:http://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/4939658
Yuri Borisov (deputy head of the department of Defence): "This year, the volume of the production program of Irkut- only 24 aircraft: 10 Yak-130 aircraft, 12 Su-30SM for VKS and 2 for the Navy

"Yak-130 - now 92 aircraft in the ranks, there are plans to purchase further, we will discuss a long-term contract, this year we will conclude it," the deputy minister said.
He added that within the framework of the State Armament Program a large contract will be signed for Su-30SM aircraft.

Then , this year 12 Su-30SM will be recived again by VKS , as the previous years. At this rate, VKS could be completed of Su-30SM in 2020 if no more regiments are raised.
While the Navy only 2, as there are not pilots enough in the Navy and there are not hurry for more airplanes at this moment , while formimg new pilots.
Only for the existing military units , are necesary about 28 Su-30SM for the VKS and about 50 for Navy more than the currently contracted.

how can that be for Air force since we have till now 80 Su-30SM delivered for VKS out of 88 ordered. We expect another 8 only.

For Navy we have 20 delivered out of 28 ordered.

Unless we already have a new order for the VKS

George1 wrote:

AMCXXL wrote:http://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/4939658
Yuri Borisov (deputy head of the department of Defence): "This year, the volume of the production program of Irkut- only 24 aircraft: 10 Yak-130 aircraft, 12 Su-30SM for VKS and 2 for the Navy

"Yak-130 - now 92 aircraft in the ranks, there are plans to purchase further, we will discuss a long-term contract, this year we will conclude it," the deputy minister said.
He added that within the framework of the State Armament Program a large contract will be signed for Su-30SM aircraft.

Then , this year 12 Su-30SM will be recived again by VKS , as the previous years. At this rate, VKS could be completed of Su-30SM in 2020 if no more regiments are raised.
While the Navy only 2, as there are not pilots enough in the Navy and there are not hurry for more airplanes at this moment , while formimg new pilots.
Only for the existing military units , are necesary about 28 Su-30SM for the VKS and about 50 for Navy more than the currently contracted.

how can that be for Air force since we have till now 80 Su-30SM delivered for VKS out of 88 ordered. We expect another 8 only.

For Navy we have 20 delivered out of 28 ordered.

Unless we already have a new order for the VKS

The contract can be delayed or expanded when the customer wants
"We expect" the oficial numbers that the deputy minister Yuri Borisov said. The rest is literature of blogs and forums
The rate of 12 per year in VKS is expected as logical.
A new "large contract" (in Borisov words) will be signed soon under the new State Arms Program 2018-2027

The Navy does not have pilots enough, each crew of Su-30SM for new squadrons is a crew less in the Air Force
You need 5 years of academy for have a raw pilot.
And after that, other year or two for conversión to Su-30SM
The Su-30SM was introduced in the Navy in 2014 , then until 2019 or 2020 the Navy will not expand the size

Yes you are right. There are in process 2 big contracts to be signed in 2018, one for Yak-130 and one for Su-30SMs.

"As for Yak-130 planes, ninety-two are already operating. We have plans to buy more. We will discuss a long-term contract. We plan to sign it this year," he said, adding that a big contract for Su-30SM planes will be signed under the state armaments program.

More:
http://tass.com/defense/988978

I believe Su-35 as well.

miketheterrible wrote:I believe Su-35 as well.

not necessarily now
In 2018 are necesary the Su-30SM and the Yak-130 as productions cannot stop.
Also MiG-35 contract is necesary for start serial production soon.The Su-57 probably will start serial production of first batch in 2019.
Su-34 will end contract in 2019 and Su-35 in 2020, so at the moment it is not in a hurry to sign new contracts, although the total number will be planned in SAP 2018-2027

This year will be received 40 combat aircrafts:
16 SU-34 ?
10 Su-35
14 SU-30SM

Next years the numbers will increase slightly with the new MiG-35 and Su-57.
Also Su-35S procurement will be increased after China received all the 24 Su-35, while Su-34 probably will be lower when Algeria receive their airplanes
In 10 years of sustained production, about 450 or 500 new combat aircraft can be manufactured for Russian Ministry of Defence, without great efforts

ALso:
https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3087140.html
The contract for the first 12 serial Su-57 fighters of the installation batch will be concluded in 2018
Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Yury Borisov during his visit to the Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aircraft Plant named after Yu.A. Gagarin (KnAAZ) of Sukhoi Company, said that in 2018 a contract will be signed for the delivery of the installation lot of the fifth generation of Su-57 fighters created under the PAK FA program. "We will first contract the first squadron - 12 aircraft," - specified Borisov.
According to Borisov, the first two planes from this party can enter the troops already in 2019. He added that earlier in the framework of development work on the PAK FA, 12 machines were manufactured, 10 of which are actively involved in flight tests.
"We are taking the Su-57 already for the experimental-combat operation, and the state tests of the first stage are over," Borisov said.
Answering the question about the work on the new engine for the PAK FA, the defense secretary said: "It's hard to judge, because we had just one flight." It's all OK, but you understand, it's a test complex, you have to fly a long time.As a rule, such tests last two or three years. "
Also, when visiting KnAAZ, Yuri Borisov said that in 2018 the plant will produce 10 new Su-35 fighters for the Russian Defense Ministry and will modernize six Su-27 aircraft to the level of the CM-3.
The aircraft of the installation lot, according to known information, must be made in the technical face of the experienced fighters T-50-9 / T-50-11 and equipped with engines of the type "117". Presumably, after the production of this installation lot, within the framework of the adopted State Arms Program for 2018-2027, a new contract for the production of 12-15 Su-57 aircraft of the installation batch in the form of the "second stage" should be followed, with the "engine 30" fitted with a prospective engine. Actual full-scale production of Su-57 fighters for equipping the linear parts of the Russian military spacecraft will apparently be carried out in the shape of the "second stage" after 2027.

So it seems large scale production , will be after the production of Su-35, as logical
No sense to produce all airplanes at same time.