Russian Air Force numbers and procurement plans

GarryB wrote:Why do you think I can answer that question?

It's ok if you don't. Wanted to learn about the supply chain of missile components. Thought if you have some open source information maybe you can share.

George1 wrote:
amigo can you update numbers of mig-29, su-27, su-24 and su-25 in this thread?

https://www.russiadefence.net/t4806-russian-air-force-numbers-and-procurement-plans

The number of these Soviet-made aircraft has hardly changed from two years ago as there have been few new aircraft delivered.
Probably in this same thread the numbers were already put some time ago, and they have barely changed

Let's quickly do a count

Su-27:
3º IAP Krymsk: 24 Su-27SM3
38º IAP Belbek: 12 Su-27SM, 12 Su-27P, 2 Su-27UB
689º IAP Kaliningrado: 24 Su-27P, 4 Su-27UB
790º IAP Khotilovo 3 Su-27 , 1 Su-27UB
159º IAP Besovets 2 Su-27UB ?
968 IISAP Lipetsk  4 Su-27 1 Su-27UB 1 Su-27PU (old Su-30)
797º UAP Kushchesvskaya: 8 Su-27UB
Akhtubinsk: 2 Su-27UB ??

total about 100 as much

Su-33
20 in the inventory, 16 as much really used



MiG-29:
Yerevan; 18
Astrakhan; 16 soviet MiG-29, half UB + 16 MiG-29SMT-UBT
Kushchevskaya: about 12-14 UB
Kubinka: 10 , half UB
Lipetsk: 12 , half UB
Severomorsk: 20 MiG-29K-KUB

Total: 104-106 (about 70 soviet made)
the 34 algerian SMT are "in reserve"



Su-24
There are Su-24 2-3 squadrons in Marinovka, Simferopol, Khurba ?? , and a few in Lipetsk, total 40 in VKS as much
navy Su-24 squadrons: Monchegorsk, Kaliningrad and half squadron in Saki , total 30
in total 70 as much



Su-24MR
(the squadrons of Su-24MR probably only use 8-10 airplanes instead 12 in some cases)
VKS, four squadrons (Shatalobo, Marinovka, Chelyabisnk and Varflomeyevka),and a couple in Lipetsk, total 50 as much
Navy: squadron in Monchegorsk and half squadron in Saki and 2 in Kaliningrad, total 18
Total 68 as much



Su-25
of course there are more Su-25 in reserve in some airbases, but the number taken is 24 + 6 UB each regiment
Primorsko-Akhtarsk 30
Budyonnovks: 30
Domna: 30
Chernigovka: 30
Simferopol: 15
Kant 14
Lipetsk: 18 (6 UB)
Kuschevskaya: 8 UB

total 175

LMFS wrote:Good post, it is a bit surprising the amount of older planes still in service. Removing the 29K which are newer and the Su-25 with different role, we are talking about 350 strike planes and fighters that will need to be substituted relatively soon by a mix of multirole fighters and strike planes, that is a lot of Su-30/34/35 still to be ordered

Well, actually the large-scale rearmament began only in 2012, in 8 years until 2020 it is not possible to replenish all the inventory, and also if you did, within 30 years you would have the same problem of changing the entire fleet at once.
The normal thing is every decade to change 1/3 of the fleet, although almost half was changed since all were already old from the late 80s and early 90s.

Besides the problems with the Western "partners", the sanctions and import substitution only made things difficult.

Anyway, in about this last decade they received about 650 airplanes and 875 helicopters, more than 1500 new aircraft



Between now and 2028 the changeover of all these models should be completed, perhaps except for some two-seater MiG-29s from the teaching units and the navy Su-27 and Su-33

In the case of the Su-30SM2 it is known that about 60-65 will be bought, and the Su-35 a similar amount.
Receiving 8 a year on average from each would be enough
they also have to update the Su-30SM that are currently in inventory

About the Su-34 it is also known that another 100 will be purchased (24 already contracted plus 76 Su-34M that were announced)
Of course there are many still in use but the half is Su-24MR that will not be replaced 1:1 since the new updated Su-34 already has the recognition function

And the MiG-35 , 24 should be purchased for Kubinka and probably a squadron from Astrakhan. Su-30SM2 should arrive in Yerevan, so here there are no replacement with MiG

Therefore, by 2028 there should be only one Su-27 regiment in the Navy and some training MiG-29s, the Lipetsk and Kuschevskaya, which should also be replaced soon, perhaps in 2030.

AMCXXL wrote:

LMFS wrote:Good post, it is a bit surprising the amount of older planes still in service. Removing the 29K which are newer and the Su-25 with different role, we are talking about 350 strike planes and fighters that will need to be substituted relatively soon by a mix of multirole fighters and strike planes, that is a lot of Su-30/34/35 still to be ordered

Well, actually the large-scale rearmament began only in 2012, in 8 years until 2020 it is not possible to replenish all the inventory, and also if you did, within 30 years you would have the same problem of changing the entire fleet at once.
The normal thing is every decade to change 1/3 of the fleet, although almost half was changed since all were already old from the late 80s and early 90s.

Besides the problems with the Western "partners", the sanctions and import substitution only made things difficult.

Anyway, in about this last decade they received about 650 airplanes and 875 helicopters, more than 1500 new aircraft



Between now and 2028 the changeover of all these models should be completed, perhaps except for some two-seater MiG-29s from the teaching units and the navy Su-27 and Su-33

In the case of the Su-30SM2 it is known that about 60-65 will be bought, and the Su-35 a similar amount.
Receiving 8 a year on average from each would be enough
they also have to update the Su-30SM that are currently in inventory

About the Su-34 it is also known that another 100 will be purchased (24 already contracted plus 76 Su-34M that were announced)
Of course there are many still in use but the half is Su-24MR that will not be replaced 1:1 since the new updated Su-34 already has the recognition function

And the MiG-35 , 24 should be purchased for Kubinka and probably a squadron from Astrakhan. Su-30SM2 should arrive in Yerevan, so here there are no replacement with MiG

Therefore, by 2028 there should be only one Su-27 regiment in the Navy and some training MiG-29s, the Lipetsk and Kuschevskaya, which should also be replaced soon, perhaps in 2030.

you are great

AMCXXL wrote:

The number of these Soviet-made aircraft has hardly changed from two years ago as there have been few new aircraft delivered.
Probably in this same thread the numbers were already put some time ago, and they have barely changed

Let's quickly do a count

Su-27:
3º IAP Krymsk: 24 Su-27SM3
38º IAP Belbek: 12 Su-27SM, 12 Su-27P, 2 Su-27UB
689º IAP Kaliningrado: 24 Su-27P, 4 Su-27UB
790º IAP Khotilovo 3 Su-27 , 1 Su-27UB
159º IAP Besovets 2 Su-27UB ?
968 IISAP Lipetsk  4 Su-27 1 Su-27UB 1 Su-27PU (old Su-30)
797º UAP Kushchesvskaya: 8 Su-27UB
Akhtubinsk: 2 Su-27UB ??

total about 100 as much

Su-33
20 in the inventory, 16 as much really used



MiG-29:
Yerevan; 18
Astrakhan; 16 soviet MiG-29, half UB + 16 MiG-29SMT-UBT
Kushchevskaya: about 12-14 UB
Kubinka: 10 , half UB
Lipetsk: 12 , half UB
Severomorsk: 20 MiG-29K-KUB

Total: 104-106 (about 70 soviet made)
the 34 algerian SMT are "in reserve"



Su-24
There are Su-24 2-3 squadrons in Marinovka, Simferopol, Khurba ?? , and a few in Lipetsk, total 40 in VKS as much
navy Su-24 squadrons: Monchegorsk, Kaliningrad and half squadron in Saki , total 30
in total 70 as much



Su-24MR
(the squadrons of Su-24MR probably only use 8-10 airplanes instead 12 in some cases)
VKS, four squadrons (Shatalobo, Marinovka, Chelyabisnk and Varflomeyevka),and a couple in Lipetsk, total 50 as much
Navy: squadron in Monchegorsk and half squadron in Saki and 2 in Kaliningrad, total 18
Total 68 as much



Su-25
of course there are more Su-25 in reserve in some airbases, but the number taken is 24 + 6 UB each regiment
Primorsko-Akhtarsk 30
Budyonnovks: 30
Domna: 30
Chernigovka: 30
Simferopol: 15
Kant 14
Lipetsk: 18 (6 UB)
Kuschevskaya: 8 UB

total 175

Allow me some considerations:

Su-27SM3 are for an half of new construction dating 2007 i.e. just before Su-35 acquisition and the rest has been refurbished from reserve ones very recently, so in reality they should be considered outside ongoing Long Term Acquisition Plan as they are not needing of substitution into its validity period.

So the operative ones needing substitution are the ones in Belbek and Kaliningrad. Of those first ones, pertaining to the VKS would be replaced by Su-35S, while the others, in force with VMF would make space for Su-30SM2.
So, given that there are ongoing production batches of 48 Su-35S and 21 So-30SM2, I think the whole process would be completed in two-three years.

MiG-29 are operative just in Yerevan and Astrakan, the rest are all UB trainers (for doing what, I wonder?).

Baseline Su-24 have been updated, so they will proceed with MR model substitution instead.
Now we know that new Su-34M are being acquired by VKS but for the ones of VMF what they would do?

Su-33 are already been replaced as carrier based fighters by Mig-29K, I don't know however if they have taken place of some other older shore based Flankers (and so need to have a substitute) or they are kept in service in a makeshift unit just to consume their last flight hours before being retired.

Su-25 are eternal, so why worry about their substitutes A.T.M?

AMCXXL wrote:

The number of these Soviet-made aircraft has hardly changed from two years ago as there have been few new aircraft delivered.
Probably in this same thread the numbers were already put some time ago, and they have barely changed

Let's quickly do a count

Su-27:
3º IAP Krymsk: 24 Su-27SM3
38º IAP Belbek: 12 Su-27SM, 12 Su-27P, 2 Su-27UB
689º IAP Kaliningrado: 24 Su-27P, 4 Su-27UB
790º IAP Khotilovo 3 Su-27 , 1 Su-27UB
159º IAP Besovets 2 Su-27UB ?
968 IISAP Lipetsk  4 Su-27 1 Su-27UB 1 Su-27PU (old Su-30)
797º UAP Kushchesvskaya: 8 Su-27UB
Akhtubinsk: 2 Su-27UB ??

total about 100 as much

Su-33
20 in the inventory, 16 as much really used



MiG-29:
Yerevan; 18
Astrakhan; 16 soviet MiG-29, half UB + 16 MiG-29SMT-UBT
Kushchevskaya: about 12-14 UB
Kubinka: 10 , half UB
Lipetsk: 12 , half UB
Severomorsk: 20 MiG-29K-KUB

Total: 104-106 (about 70 soviet made)
the 34 algerian SMT are "in reserve"



Su-24
There are Su-24 2-3 squadrons in Marinovka, Simferopol, Khurba ?? , and a few in Lipetsk, total 40 in VKS as much
navy Su-24 squadrons: Monchegorsk, Kaliningrad and half squadron in Saki , total 30
in total 70 as much



Su-24MR
(the squadrons of Su-24MR probably only use 8-10 airplanes instead 12 in some cases)
VKS, four squadrons (Shatalobo, Marinovka, Chelyabisnk and Varflomeyevka),and a couple in Lipetsk, total 50 as much
Navy: squadron in Monchegorsk and half squadron in Saki and 2 in Kaliningrad, total 18
Total 68 as much



Su-25
of course there are more Su-25 in reserve in some airbases, but the number taken is 24 + 6 UB each regiment
Primorsko-Akhtarsk 30
Budyonnovks: 30
Domna: 30
Chernigovka: 30
Simferopol: 15
Kant 14
Lipetsk: 18 (6 UB)
Kuschevskaya: 8 UB

total 175

Allow me some considerations:

Su-27SM3 are for an half of new construction dating 2007 i.e. just before Su-35 acquisition and the rest has been refurbished from reserve ones very recently, so in reality they should be considered outside ongoing Long Term Acquisition Plan as they are not needing of substitution into its validity period.

So the operative ones needing substitution are the ones in Belbek and Kaliningrad. Of those, the first ones, pertaining to the VKS would be replaced by Su-35S, while the others, in force with VMF would make space for Su-30SM2.
So, given that there are ongoing production batches of 48 Su-35S and 21 So-30SM2, I think the whole process would be completed in two-three years.

MiG-29 are operative just in Yerevan and Astrakan, the rest are all UB trainers (for doing what, I wonder?).

Baseline Su-24 have been updated, so they will proceed with MR model substitution instead.
Now we know that new Su-34M are being acquired by VKS but for the ones of VMF what they would do?

Su-33 are already been replaced as carrier based fighters by Mig-29K, I don't know however if they have taken place of some other older shore based Flankers (and so need to have a substitute) or they are kept in service in a makeshift unit just to consume their last flight hours before being retired.

Su-25 are eternal   , so why to worry about their substitutes A.T.M?[/quote]

also, why the algerian SMTs are in reserve??

George1 wrote:also, why the algerian SMTs are in reserve??

Probably for the same reason the other 200 MiG-29's got put in reserve, Russia doesn't need them but their poorer allies like Cuba, Syria, North Korea and Serbia could always do with spares and repairs, or even a few SMT's for "free".

George1 wrote:also, why the algerian SMTs are in reserve??

because was replaced with Su-30SM in Kursk. VKS does not need those airllanes,
They were put there by chance after the return by Algeria and because at that time there was no other type of new plane to receive

They could be sent to Astrakhan once the Soviet MiG-29s run out of service, but in reality it would be much better to buy some MiG-35s for Astrakhan and sell all 50 MiG-29SMTs to Syria, India or any other country.

Broski wrote:

George1 wrote:also, why the algerian SMTs are in reserve??

Probably for the same reason the other 200 MiG-29's got put in reserve, Russia doesn't need them but their poorer allies like Cuba, Syria, North Korea and Serbia could always do with spares and repairs, or even a few SMT's for "free".

This is not so, Russia does not have that many MiG-29s in reserve, and also has them for its own use.

4 or 5 years ago all MiG.29 aircraft were rotated.
Aircraft from Lipetsk and elsewhere were taken from the reserve, repaired and the entire fleet of MiG-29s  were replaced (Armenia, Lipetsk, Astrahan, Kuschevskaya and Kubinka)

The replaced aircraft had already exhausted their useful life and were scrapped or used as monuments in cities throughout Russia.
Now there are only 50 MiG-29s left in reserve in Lipetsk, some in Millerovo and at the training bases, in total just over 100 but most of them are MiG-29UBs for training, and most of the rest are old 9.12. Actually Russia did not have that many 9.13

In fact, the MiG-29s received by Serbia came from the Millerovo and Astrakhan regiments, they were planes taken from active units, not from reserve deposits.

AMCXXL wrote:

George1 wrote:also, why the algerian SMTs are in reserve??

because was replaced with Su-30SM in Kursk. VKS does not need those airllanes,
They were put there by chance after the return by Algeria and because at that time there was no other type of new plane to receive

They could be sent to Astrakhan once the Soviet MiG-29s run out of service, but in reality it would be much better to buy some MiG-35s for Astrakhan and sell all 50 MiG-29SMTs to Syria, India or any other country.

Broski wrote:

George1 wrote:also, why the algerian SMTs are in reserve??

Probably for the same reason the other 200 MiG-29's got put in reserve, Russia doesn't need them but their poorer allies like Cuba, Syria, North Korea and Serbia could always do with spares and repairs, or even a few SMT's for "free".

This is not so, Russia does not have that many MiG-29s in reserve, and also has them for its own use.

4 or 5 years ago all MiG.29 aircraft were rotated.
Aircraft from Lipetsk and elsewhere were taken from the reserve, repaired and the entire fleet of MiG-29s  were replaced (Armenia, Lipetsk, Astrahan, Kuschevskaya and Kubinka)

The replaced aircraft had already exhausted their useful life and were scrapped or used as monuments in cities throughout Russia.
Now there are only 50 MiG-29s left in reserve in Lipetsk, some in Millerovo and at the training bases, in total just over 100 but most of them are MiG-29UBs for training, and most of the rest are old 9.12. Actually Russia did not have that many 9.13

In fact, the MiG-29s received by Serbia came from the Millerovo and Astrakhan regiments, they were planes taken from active units, not from reserve deposits.

Thank for explanation.

marcellogo wrote:

Allow me some considerations:

Su-27SM3 are for an half of new construction dating 2007 i.e. just before Su-35 acquisition and the rest has been refurbished from reserve ones very recently, so in reality they should be considered outside ongoing Long Term Acquisition Plan as they are not needing of substitution into its validity period.

So the operative ones needing substitution are the ones in Belbek and Kaliningrad. Of those, the first ones, pertaining to the VKS would be replaced by Su-35S, while the others, in force with VMF would make space for Su-30SM2.
So, given that there are ongoing production batches of 48 Su-35S and 21 So-30SM2, I think the whole process would be completed in two-three years.

MiG-29 are operative just in Yerevan and Astrakan, the rest are all UB trainers (for doing what, I wonder?).

Baseline Su-24 have been updated, so they will proceed with MR model substitution instead.
Now we know that new Su-34M are being acquired by VKS but for the ones of VMF what they would do?

Su-33 are already been replaced as carrier based fighters by Mig-29K, I don't know however if they have taken place of some other older shore based Flankers (and so need to have a substitute) or they are kept in service in a makeshift unit just to consume their last flight hours before being retired.

Su-25 are eternal   , so why to worry about their substitutes A.T.M?

[/quote]


The Su-27SM3 arrived in 2011 and like all the planes that were bought at that time by the infamous general Zelin (Algerian MiG-29SMT, An-148, An-140, etc ...) they will be decommissioned as soon as possible. and a replacement arrives or they will be sold to a country friend of Russia or they will simply be put on reserve
For example, the Algerian MiG-29SMTs were used only for 8 years, from 2010 to 2017, and it was for urgent reasons, the previous MiG-29s no longer gave for more

In Krymsk , it seems will be one of the Su-57 regiments.Especially if one takes into account that in the South District there are already two other regimemts with Flankers in Belbbek and Millerovo

Belbek and Kaliningrad are different things, At the moment the Flankers of Belbek and the S-400 of Crimea do not belong to the Black Sea Fleet, although I do not rule out that they are transferred

For the moment there are 30 Su-35 contracted and are for Millerovo until 2024 (5+7+10+8 ). To complete other regiment in Belbek and other 2 squadrons in Khotilovo (probably to move to Kursk) and Vladivostok will take until 2028 at least, depends the delivery rate


Yerevan should be replaced with Su-30SM when the west puppet president want to give authorization (it should have happened in 2019-2020)
In Astrakhan probably in long tern will receive MiG-35. At the end is a combat regiment of advanced retraining (as Top-gun). Airplanes of these regiments were to Georgia ans Siria wars
The MiG-29 is also used for training of foreing pilots of customers countries
These foreign pilots are trained by the 5th Faculty of the Krasnodar Higher School of Flight, and flight practices are held in Kuschevskaya


El Su-24 de VMF:
Well, the Saki and Kaliningrad Marine Assault Regiments, they have already received Su-30, It is only needed to complete the regiments and the Su-24 is finished
In the Northern Fleet, Monchegorsk should receive Su-34 (in the end, this is not a Maritime Assault regiment, it is an Air Force regiment under the organic command of the Naval District)
The Su-30SM will be the Flanker in the Northern District in the 279th regiment (previously the 279th KIAP was also the 279th Maritime Assault Regiment)
The Su-33 could then be retired or transferred as a squad of 100 KIAPs with the MiG-29K.


In fact, the Su-33 and the MiG-29K work together, as in Syria. Today, the Su-33 also has the role of a common flanker in the Northern District.
There are only 16 of each type in service apart from the "double seats", in fact they are only squadrons by size, not regiments, there should be only one regiment with both planes combined.
Regardless, both will be replaced by a new shipborne 5G aircraft, once new carriers arrive.

Su-24s should still have a lot of life in them if they can use the latest guided munitions and ecm pods.

Also why did the Su-35 production slow down. They need to replace the crashed one.

Mig-29SMT are good. They can sell them to Iran which already operates the mig-29 and is in desperate need for new fighters until it buy a large batch of new fighters.

They can sell them for 10 million each with 50 jets it is 500 million dollars. And that can be made with oil contracts or some other purchase like su-35 batch plus the SMT for advantageous price.

Syria doesn't have the money for them. India isn't interested, they already bought new airframes.

Isos wrote:Mig-29SMT are good. They can sell them to Iran which already operates the mig-29 and is in desperate need for new fighters until it buy a large batch of new fighters.

Iran will most likely choose the Su-30 since they have Saudi F-15's (piloted by U.S contractors) to face off against, and no way in hell would Russia sell any MiG-29's for $10M a piece.

Broski wrote:

Isos wrote:Mig-29SMT are good. They can sell them to Iran which already operates the mig-29 and is in desperate need for new fighters until it buy a large batch of new fighters.  

Iran will most likely choose the Su-30 since they have Saudi F-15's (piloted by U.S contractors) to face off against, and no way in hell would Russia sell any MiG-29's for $10M a piece.

Su-30 will need time to be bought and it's very likely that Iran asks for su-57 instead.

Mig-29SMT were used and not much left in them and are a quick solution.

10 million is possible since the other end for them is to let them rust in Siberia. Better take 10 million. No one will pay more for them, neither no one else than Iran or Syria need such aircraft.

Russian air force don't like that plane and won't keep it. The money will be given to them, not to Mig. So they can invest those 500 million in buying more su-57.

That will also flood the Iranian air force with more russian stuff thus giving them more chances for new contract since China is very interested in taking its part of the cake in Iran.

Isos wrote:

Broski wrote:

Isos wrote:Mig-29SMT are good. They can sell them to Iran which already operates the mig-29 and is in desperate need for new fighters until it buy a large batch of new fighters.  

Iran will most likely choose the Su-30 since they have Saudi F-15's (piloted by U.S contractors) to face off against, and no way in hell would Russia sell any MiG-29's for $10M a piece.

Su-30 will need time to be bought and it's very likely that Iran asks for su-57 instead.

Mig-29SMT were used and not much left in them and are a quick solution.

10 million is possible since the other end for them is to let them rust in Siberia. Better take 10 million. No one will pay more for them, neither no one else than Iran or Syria need such aircraft.

Russian air force don't like that plane and won't keep it. The money will be given to them, not to Mig. So they can invest those 500 million in buying more su-57.

That will also flood the Iranian air force with more russian stuff thus giving them more chances for new contract since China is very interested in taking its part of the cake in Iran.

Iran would also want the MIG-29SMT. Even at 10 million US dollars, this is not sure if Iran wants this plane.

However, Russia could offer 2x MiG-29SMT for $ 20 million and Iran continues to give Syria. As to speak as military help from Russia and Iran at Syria.

So the 2x48 units would be for orders and serves the fight against terror. Both countries get upgrades of the existing 29er on SM2.

That would be a quick solution for Iran to gain weight for its air force until they buy a totally new fighter in large quantities.

The SMT won't fly more than few years which is the time needed for Iran to get new fighters.

Even if they buy 150 su-35 tomorrow they will get them in 10 years or so.

Every one wins with such deal. Russian air force gets money for more su-57. Iran gets a cheap fighter for which it has pilots and crews already trained for. Mig will have to maintain them. And russian firms will sell munitions for them of all sort since the smt can use any missiles and any huided/unguided bomb that russia produce. And stabilizes the middle east more since it make almost impossible for Israel to attack them with 50 mig-29SMT waiting them.


If it was me I would sell them even for 5 million piece.

i think MiG-29SMTs can go only to Serbia and Peru

How about a nice gift to the Syrian people?

GarryB wrote:
The Su-33 has better range and weapons capacity but the MiG-29K is a new fully multirole fighter... minus the phoenix you really can consider them to be F-14 and F-18 but of the same generation.

The thing is that by using them together you get the benefits of extra range and heavier weapon load of the Flanker together with greater numbers and lower operating costs of the smaller lighter aircraft.

I rather hope that over time they upgrade the SU-33 and MIG-29KR with Su-35 and MiG-35 bits to improve commonality and simplify logistics and improve performance.

I also rather hope that this new twin engined MiG carrier design does well and replaces the MiG-35 and that they make a naval model of the Su-57 and that it replaces the Su-33/35 on their ships.

New CVNs wont be hitting the water before 2035 so there is time to sort these things out... new helicopters too...

Well, the Su-33s already received a modest update together with the MLU, also, as I said, their mission is not so much to be on aircraft carriers as to be the Flanker fighter regiment of the North region, since they act at most one month in summer like deck figther and not every year
Otherwise they could have been removed when the MiG-29K arrived.
Su-33 is too large to operate comfortably in the Kuznestov, which is not well configured to carry such large fighters, it lacks width on the deck, it lacks space in the hangar, etc ... in practice the Kuznestov has only loaded 8 to 10 Su-33 like every time that have salied

The MiG-29Ks and perhaps some Su-33s will remain in service as long as the Kuznestov can hold, within the 100th KIAP at Severomorsk-1.
The 279th regiment should receive the Su-30SM2 and be Flanker's new regiment in the North region, remaining in Severomorsk-3.

and of course there will not be large CVN´s but more modest of the type of the British Queen Elizabeth, with only one type of aircraft, probably single engine 5ºG


In addition to the fact that Russia does not need aircraft carriers, and these have no strategic value for Russia, there is simply not enough personnel in the Navy, nor population in the Severomorsk area to put 5000 people on each ship (Murmansk has only 280 thousand inhabitants dedicated mostly to shipbuilding, Severomorsk 55 thousand, mostly sailors, the entire region 730 thousand, when in 1989 it had 1.2 million ...), It will not be so easy to find people willing to go to the North, before recruitment was mandatory, now it is by contract

Kuznetsov has almost 2500 crew, in the best case the Northern Fleet will have 2 aircraft carriers with 1200 sailors like the Queen Elizabeth. (even the US Navy is questioning its CVNs that cost $ 15 billion)

Mig-29SMT are good. They can sell them to Iran which already operates the mig-29 and is in desperate need for new fighters until it buy a large batch of new fighters.

They can sell them for 10 million each with 50 jets it is 500 million dollars. And that can be made with oil contracts or some other purchase like su-35 batch plus the SMT for advantageous price.

Syria doesn't have the money for them. India isn't interested, they already bought new airframes.

Iran does not seem to know what it wants, the MiG-29SMT is very similar to the MiG-29s that India actually operate, I would say they are a more likely buyer further down the track.

Iran might want Checkmate but might be effected by the rich country paying for it...

Russia is reserving the MiG-29SMT for some reason, in other case, they had been put in Astrakhan.
Even India could buy them, since it will need hundreds and hundreds of planes in the short term if it wants to maintain a total of 42 squadrons (it only has 33 or 34 and many of them are obsolete planes). In fact, India recently bought 21 MiG-29s from the stock of RSK MiG for the conversion to MiG-29UPG

Nor would I be surprised if the 50 MiG-29SMTs were simply stored in the reserve in Lipetsk and the Soviet MiG-29s that are now there were sent to scrap