Russian Air Force numbers and procurement plans

Arrow wrote:

Well, Russia has a very good financial situation.  They have a lot of money.  They could easily increase the defense budget

As I said, they cannot go out and buy US or European securities that have to be held in custody outside Russia. They will have their assets seized just like Iran or Venezuela. They can hold Chinese securities or gold basically at this point. Why not have a supplemental year end budget based upon the surplus from last year? How about 5% of the surplus or in this case $2.5 billion? I think you can buy quite a few Su 35s or T-14s for that money.

calripson wrote:

Arrow wrote:

Well, Russia has a very good financial situation.  They have a lot of money.  They could easily increase the defense budget

As I said, they cannot go out and buy US or European securities that have to be held in custody outside Russia. They will have their assets seized just like Iran or Venezuela. They can hold Chinese securities or gold basically at this point. Why not have a supplemental year end budget based upon the surplus from last year? How about 5% of the surplus or in this case $2.5 billion? I think you can buy quite a few Su 35s or T-14s for that money.

They can't .

With the money they can buy good from abroad, not from inside the country.

That is the trick with the trade surpluss.

calripson wrote:

Arrow wrote:In 2021, it delivered few airc raft to VKS compared to previous few years ago The best was over 100 planes in 2014, why so few now?

I believe the original decline in production came from the bean counters fearful of budgetary impacts from sanctions and the oil price drop. Both of those realizations have not come to pass. Sitting on over $200 billion in a surplus fund - which ironically they cannot really invest in foreign assets as they might be seized - and a net federal debt to GDP ratio of 4%, there is no rational not to spend money.

The alternative explanation is past generation production is already obsolete and they want to move to full scale new generation production.

No, it's a little more complicated:

If you look better, planes in this list are part of three different phases, for both it comes to production than the generation they make part of.

Mig-29SMT, Su-30SM3 and Su-30M2 are basically plain 4gen planes produced as a stopgap measure or just not to throw away already existing resources
(like the planes rejected by Algeria).

The only plane produced continously along the whole period is Su-34 that started by just one item (first serial) in 2008, Yak-130 followed track almost immediately after.
So, if you leave out the one in a shot 36 Mig-29SMT we are talking about an 1-4-16-19 produced between 2008-2011


In the middle period they produced instead the whole load of the current 4+ and 4++ planes.
Mass delivery of Su-34 and Yak-130 begun in 2012 and in the same year it was started the ones of Su-30SM and Su-35S.
Between 2013 and 2016 production peaked but it was the sum of EIGHT different types of planes (only the Su-27SM3 production was discontinued as they were superseded by the Su-35S on assembly line).
Plain 4gen alongside with 4+ and 4++ together.

From 2017 no more "plain 4gen" planes were consigned and the numbers went down almost immediately.
It was with 2019 and the end of Su-30SM (and Yak-130) delivers that there was the ultimate downfall.

Still it was just a temporary thing: they have closed or winded down  such productions just to allow the start of new (version) ones i.e. the Su-30SM2, the
Su-34OMV, the Su-57.
Just this last one is made on a new assembly line while all the others will use the previous one.
Su-34 and Su-35S production never ceased, just winded down a little between the end of a production batch and the other.
What lacked in this period was the start of Mig-35 production, reduced to just a token order: while a delay into Su-57 production was never an issue given it being the most advanced item of the new productive cycle in case of the new gen Fulcrum it was too little , too late.

So, this period would have to be consider as a third production phase, so to be honest we should compare the actual planes output to the one of 2008-1012, not to the peak period one.
They are infact the first items of a new productive cycle, made out of new items that have not reached full rate production capability + some of former period winding down.
And actually it is a little better.

Naturally, there are also the revamped Mig-31BM, Su-24 and Su-25SM3 to be considered: they are not in anyway operatively less significant than Mig-29SMT and Su-27sm3 although the latter were classified "new productions" instead.  
Have we some numbers about them, just to get the whole picture?

George1 wrote:So we had for 2021"
Su-30SM2 -4 (for Naval Aviation)
Su-35S -5
Su-34 -6
MiG-35 -2
Su-57 -2
MiG-35 -2
Total   21

and also 2x Yak-130 trainers, the first two aircraft built under contract for the supply of 25 units concluded by the UAC with the Russian Ministry of Defense on August 25, 2020 during the Army-2020 Forum.


And planned for 2022:
Su-30SM2 - 8
Su-35S -10
Su-34 -10
Su-57 -4

MiG-35 program in uncertainty according to the article

I really don't know how bmpd gets the numbers
The number of 17 refers to the aircraft administratively accepted by the MoD, the date of flight to the base is another matter
As the acceptance can usually occur until December 31, it is usual that the flight to the base occurs in the second half of January (taking into account that the first half is the Orthodox Christmas holidays)

Bearing in mind that almost two months ago the arrival in Khurba of the first 4 Su-34s was announced, and in January another 4 with numbers Nº16, 50, 51, 52 were deployed, this makes 8 Su-34s, without a doubt.
More questionable is the 2 MiG-35
I haven't been up to date in the last few months but at least I haven't seen No. 17 anywhere and No. 14 is from 2020, the device in the photo must be that, it can't be seen from that angle that it's a double seat.
As for the Su-35, only 3 are confirmed, we will see if the other two appear
The plan was 5 for 2021, 7 for 2022, 10 for 2023 and 8 for 2024 and they are supposed to arm the Millerovo regiment plus some more for other bases

Another bad data is that of 116 Su-30SM, when only 114 were delivered and in fact two were sent back to the factory for the Su-30SM1 and Su-30SM2 tests, therefore in reality the RuAF had 112

Arrow wrote:

Well, Russia has a very good financial situation.  They have a lot of money.  They could easily increase the defense budget

Russia's problem is all the neoliberal shit that even the leaders (including Putin) and a good part of the country's elite have in their heads
Ar the end, they are the same people who committed the stupidity of overthrowing the economy of the USSR and plunging the country into misery and backwardness

A sovereign state that issues its own currency can finance its economy as much as it needs with its own central bank and can spend as much as it needs as long as it has the necessary material and human resources.
A country like Russia has a clearly positive external balance, therefore moderate fiscal deficits are irrelevant.

The money issued by Central Bank and introduced into the economy through the budget of public spending on real investments, later is simply destroyed through taxes and interest rates should be at zero, the absurd ideas that neoliberals handle (neoclassical economics) are typical of the time of the gold standard which is actually just one classist policy typical of the Victorian era that takes you to the England of Oliver Twist

First of all, Russia has to kick the ass of all the neoliberal garbage in its institutions, then nationalize the Central Bank, which is de facto an institution of colonial occupation at the service of the IMF, and then it can finance its economy in the same way as The Bank of Japan has been doing it for the last 40 years.

After that, put a level of taxes sufficient to rebuild the social economy that was destroyed in the 90s.
It makes no sense to have such a low tax level as a "tax haven" where a few get rich and then take the money out of Russia and take it to London or Switzerland.

Expenditure on weapons may be enough to finish the modernization, the big problem is finding qualified personnel to work in the industry.
For example, at the Ulyanovsk factory, the production of Il-76MD-90A can no longer be launched because there are no necessary personnel, in addition to the fact that salaries are low and workers resign frequently.

George1 wrote:Hi amigo. Your opinion on this?

https://www.russiadefence.net/t8590p50-su-34-tactical-bomber-news-2#348568

About the number of Su-34:

We will exclude the 7 flight prototypes, the airframe for static tests and the 5 pre-series aircraft that only served for state tests received from 2006 to 2009 and that were not used until 2013 or 2014 in the best of cases, and that's it they have been ceded to educational or technical institutions , or even to museums.
In total 13 airframes with numbers of frame T-10V-1 to T-10V-13

So the first serial aircraft for actual supply to the troops was the T-10V-14 deployed at the end of 2010

The number of aircraft contracted:
32 in 2008
92 + 2 (options executed) in 2012
24 in 2020
TOTAL: 150

In 2021 have been delivered at least 6 (or 8 as much)

Numbers known are:
16 in Lipetsk
50, 51, 52, 53, 54 probably for Khurba

Then, the number delivered is at least 132 / 150 (or 134 as much)


Lost and retired aircraft:

In 277º BAP , Kurba airbase, that receives 26, two were lost in mid-air crash. Later it was received another Su-34 that was also lost

In 47º BAP, Baltimore airbase, one has an accident and after repairs was sent to SibNIA tech institute in Novosibirsk, other was received fro Lipetsk
Also there was 3 stored in tech zone (Nº01, Nº02, Nº25) in Voronezh while the airbase was closed, uncertain if will return for service
Ir seems other 3 have been received from Lipetsk or brand new, since last year



Then of 132 delivered, 4 were lost, and are 3 stored,
Then remain 125 in service

Akhtibinsk: 2
Lipetsk: 10
Voronezh: 24 (+3 stored)
Morozovsk: 36
Chelyabisk: 24
Khurba: 29

It is not really clear why a third squadron remains in Morozovsk and Khurba, when regiments of two squads are provided in other places and there are also other bases in Marinovka and Varfolomeyevka with Su-24s in the same Military District, which could house new regiments of Su-34.
It may only be temporary until the other bases are repaired and upgraded.

AMCXXL wrote:

George1 wrote:So we had for 2021"
Su-30SM2 -4 (for Naval Aviation)
Su-35S -5
Su-34 -6
MiG-35 -2
Su-57 -2
MiG-35 -2
Total   21

and also 2x Yak-130 trainers, the first two aircraft built under contract for the supply of 25 units concluded by the UAC with the Russian Ministry of Defense on August 25, 2020 during the Army-2020 Forum.


And planned for 2022:
Su-30SM2 - 8
Su-35S -10
Su-34 -10
Su-57 -4

MiG-35 program in uncertainty according to the article

I really don't know how bmpd gets the numbers
The number of 17 refers to the aircraft administratively accepted by the MoD, the date of flight to the base is another matter
As the acceptance can usually occur until December 31, it is usual that the flight to the base occurs in the second half of January (taking into account that the first half is the Orthodox Christmas holidays)

Bearing in mind that almost two months ago the arrival in Khurba of the first 4 Su-34s was announced, and in January another 4 with numbers Nº16, 50, 51, 52 were deployed, this makes 8 Su-34s, without a doubt.
More questionable is the 2 MiG-35
I haven't been up to date in the last few months but at least I haven't seen No. 17 anywhere and No. 14 is from 2020, the device in the photo must be that, it can't be seen from that angle that it's a double seat.
As for the Su-35, only 3 are confirmed, we will see if the other two appear
The plan was 5 for 2021, 7 for 2022, 10 for 2023 and 8 for 2024 and they are supposed to arm the Millerovo regiment plus some more for other bases

Another bad data is that of 116 Su-30SM, when only 114 were delivered and in fact two were sent back to the factory for the Su-30SM1 and Su-30SM2 tests, therefore in reality the RuAF had 112

Arrow wrote:

Well, Russia has a very good financial situation.  They have a lot of money.  They could easily increase the defense budget

Russia's problem is all the neoliberal shit that even the leaders (including Putin) and a good part of the country's elite have in their heads
Ar the end, they are the same people who committed the stupidity of overthrowing the economy of the USSR and plunging the country into misery and backwardness

A sovereign state that issues its own currency can finance its economy as much as it needs with its own central bank and can spend as much as it needs as long as it has the necessary material and human resources.
A country like Russia has a clearly positive external balance, therefore moderate fiscal deficits are irrelevant.

The money issued by Central Bank and introduced into the economy through the budget of public spending on real investments, later is simply destroyed through taxes and interest rates should be at zero, the absurd ideas that neoliberals handle (neoclassical economics) are typical of the time of the gold standard which is actually just one classist policy typical of the Victorian era that takes you to the England of Oliver Twist

First of all, Russia has to kick the ass of all the neoliberal garbage in its institutions, then nationalize the Central Bank, which is de facto an institution of colonial occupation at the service of the IMF, and then it can finance its economy in the same way as The Bank of Japan has been doing it for the last 40 years.

After that, put a level of taxes sufficient to rebuild the social economy that was destroyed in the 90s.
It makes no sense to have such a low tax level as a "tax haven" where a few get rich and then take the money out of Russia and take it to London or Switzerland.

Expenditure on weapons may be enough to finish the modernization, the big problem is finding qualified personnel to work in the industry.
For example, at the Ulyanovsk factory, the production of Il-76MD-90A can no longer be launched because there are no necessary personnel, in addition to the fact that salaries are low and workers resign frequently.

How is that meant? No new transporters / tankers more?

https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/145743/#cut

Nice text of all procurement since 2012.

Acourding to Ukrainan latest numbers, Russia has so far lost 27 aircrafts and 26 helicopters during the invasion.

Thats more then what Russias airforce recieved in 2021.

This is starting to look very expensive for the Russians.

walle83 wrote:Acourding to Ukrainan latest numbers, Russia has so far lost 27 aircrafts and 26 helicopters during the invasion.

Thats more then what Russias airforce recieved in 2021.

This is starting to look very expensive for the Russians.

Has it ever occurred to you that they might be lying?
The lack of evidence speaks for itself...

Belisarius wrote:

walle83 wrote:Acourding to Ukrainan latest numbers, Russia has so far lost 27 aircrafts and 26 helicopters during the invasion.

Thats more then what Russias airforce recieved in 2021.

This is starting to look very expensive for the Russians.

Has it ever occurred to you that they might be lying?
The lack of evidence speaks for itself...

Sure I have, its the Ukrainans numbers.

Time will tell though, as of now you cant really say its going very god for the Russians. They still dont have air superiority.

walle83 wrote:They still dont have air superiority.

Russia fully controls Ukrainian Air Space.

walle83 wrote:

Belisarius wrote:

walle83 wrote:Acourding to Ukrainan latest numbers, Russia has so far lost 27 aircrafts and 26 helicopters during the invasion.

Thats more then what Russias airforce recieved in 2021.

This is starting to look very expensive for the Russians.

Has it ever occurred to you that they might be lying?
The lack of evidence speaks for itself...

Sure I have, its the Ukrainans numbers.

Time will tell though, as of now you cant really say its going very god for the Russians. They still dont have air superiority.

We are still waiting for the pictures of the 2 il-76 destroyed 2 days ago. Add to that su-30 and su-35. Around 10 destroyed according to Ukraine.

Belisarius wrote:

walle83 wrote:They still dont have air superiority.

Russia fully controls Ukrainian Air Space.

Sure they have...

Thats why Ukrainan MiGs still flies every day.

lancelot wrote:

walle83 wrote:Sure they have...
Thats why Ukrainan MiGs still flies every day.

Yes. The Ghost of Kiev. From DCS.
Do you even know the difference between air superiority and air supremacy?

You know precisly what I mean.

Hopfully Russia gets thier head out thier ass and ends this crazy shit after the peace talks with Ukraine today.
This isnt good for anyone. Putin has fucked up.

GarryB wrote:If you listen to Ukrainian sources, yes Putin has fucked up... Putin obviously should let Navalny out of jail and make him the new president of Russia so he can privatise all the biggest companies and the Russian MIC so western companies can use printed money and buy it all up and disassemble it and move it all to the west and make Russia into a third world gas station that doesn't make anything again.

Of course Ukrainian numbers are made up and even if they were genuine are likely drones shot down rather than actual aircraft.

Listening to Ukrainian accounts is like listening to the West German Nazis explain WWII... the reason why it makes no sense based on what we actually know is because it is made up propaganda.

Just like hospitals and schools and churches in Syria burning... according to the white helmets.

Believe what you want to believe though... Putin screwed up... he gave the west his red lines and they laughed in his face and said HATO and the US doesn't care for the security interests of Russia or what makes her feel threatened, but lets talk about limiting missiles and troop placements in some places.

Of course this means the time for talk is over... especially when Zelensky talks about making nuclear weapons... not getting them from the US or UK or France but making their own... Russia knows they have the capacity to do that, and probably do it quite quickly if the west does nothing to stop them... and they did nothing to force Kiev to follow their obligations in the Minsk agreements so why would they lift a finger with nuclear weapons.

Attacking now before they get nukes makes sense... the fact that you don't understand is not really important to them at all.

Oh shut the hell up.

Putin just invaded a free democratic nation for no reason what so ever.
Now his paying for it, with lives of young russians soldiers and a sinking russian economy.

Keep this up and Putin wont afford a single new submarine , Su-57 or Armata for the next 10 years. Its back to the 90s again.

The Russian president can take his so called red lines and shove it up his ass. Nato will now build up its forces in the east and Russia will have even more to worrie about then it had before.

walle83 wrote:

GarryB wrote:If you listen to Ukrainian sources, yes Putin has fucked up... Putin obviously should let Navalny out of jail and make him the new president of Russia so he can privatise all the biggest companies and the Russian MIC so western companies can use printed money and buy it all up and disassemble it and move it all to the west and make Russia into a third world gas station that doesn't make anything again.

Of course Ukrainian numbers are made up and even if they were genuine are likely drones shot down rather than actual aircraft.

Listening to Ukrainian accounts is like listening to the West German Nazis explain WWII... the reason why it makes no sense based on what we actually know is because it is made up propaganda.

Just like hospitals and schools and churches in Syria burning... according to the white helmets.

Believe what you want to believe though... Putin screwed up... he gave the west his red lines and they laughed in his face and said HATO and the US doesn't care for the security interests of Russia or what makes her feel threatened, but lets talk about limiting missiles and troop placements in some places.

Of course this means the time for talk is over... especially when Zelensky talks about making nuclear weapons... not getting them from the US or UK or France but making their own... Russia knows they have the capacity to do that, and probably do it quite quickly if the west does nothing to stop them... and they did nothing to force Kiev to follow their obligations in the Minsk agreements so why would they lift a finger with nuclear weapons.

Attacking now before they get nukes makes sense... the fact that you don't understand is not really important to them at all.

Oh shut the hell up.

Putin just invaded a free democratic nation for no reason what so ever.
Now his paying for it, with lives of young russians soldiers and a sinking russian economy.

Keep this up and Putin wont afford a single new submarine , Su-57 or Armata for the next 10 years. Its back to the 90s again.

The Russian president can take his so called red lines and shove it up his ass. Nato will now build up its forces in the east and Russia will have even more to worrie about then it had before.

You are a piece of shit.

Not only do you have zip knowledge in economics, Ukraine wasn't democratic at all.

Shall I post about 2014 and the maidan? Shall I post the "F the EU" clip? Or how opposition is banned in Ukraine or how tons of journalists were banned? Or may I also post about the UN numbers of civilians killed by Ukraine in the east for last 7 years?

You have proven you are a moron. Hope Garryb adds you to the ban list since you provided nothing but trolling on this forums.

No one else in the world cares and thinks Ukraine deserved it. You can keep your 11% population.

BTW, Russia is swimming in money and still exporting to your shit lands. Once they stop, you can freeze for all I care while India, China, Vietnam and others get Russian resources. While they continue to get money.

Like I said, take a fucking course in economics. I have.

That's one of the most important war for Russia actually. Nato won't dre to approch anymore. And those minion states will regret once US loose their power and China starts seailing its carrier in the med.

If they use a tactical nuk NATO expension will stop forever. Poland is a juicy target. Germany too since it hasn't paid enough for iys crimes in WW2.

walle83 wrote:

GarryB wrote:If you listen to Ukrainian sources, yes Putin has fucked up... Putin obviously should let Navalny out of jail and make him the new president of Russia so he can privatise all the biggest companies and the Russian MIC so western companies can use printed money and buy it all up and disassemble it and move it all to the west and make Russia into a third world gas station that doesn't make anything again.

Of course Ukrainian numbers are made up and even if they were genuine are likely drones shot down rather than actual aircraft.

Listening to Ukrainian accounts is like listening to the West German Nazis explain WWII... the reason why it makes no sense based on what we actually know is because it is made up propaganda.

Just like hospitals and schools and churches in Syria burning... according to the white helmets.

Believe what you want to believe though... Putin screwed up... he gave the west his red lines and they laughed in his face and said HATO and the US doesn't care for the security interests of Russia or what makes her feel threatened, but lets talk about limiting missiles and troop placements in some places.

Of course this means the time for talk is over... especially when Zelensky talks about making nuclear weapons... not getting them from the US or UK or France but making their own... Russia knows they have the capacity to do that, and probably do it quite quickly if the west does nothing to stop them... and they did nothing to force Kiev to follow their obligations in the Minsk agreements so why would they lift a finger with nuclear weapons.

Attacking now before they get nukes makes sense... the fact that you don't understand is not really important to them at all.

Oh shut the hell up.

Putin just invaded a free democratic nation for no reason what so ever.
Now his paying for it, with lives of young russians soldiers and a sinking russian economy.

Keep this up and Putin wont afford a single new submarine , Su-57 or Armata for the next 10 years. Its back to the 90s again.

The Russian president can take his so called red lines and shove it up his ass. Nato will now build up its forces in the east and Russia will have even more to worrie about then it had before.

There is nothing free or democratic about the Ukraine

It was and is a Nazi-run state since 2014.

I completely agree that the invasion is criminal.
But if you think that the Russian leadership have waded into a blunder geopolitically then you have no idea what's going on.

flamming_python wrote:
There is nothing free or democratic about the Ukraine

It was and is a Nazi-run state since 2014.

I completely agree that the invasion is criminal.
But if you think that the Russian leadership have waded into a blunder geopolitically then you have no idea what's going on.

Did not believe that the day would come to agree with you, but here it is. On the part Criminal or not is absolutely irrelevant. We live in times where anything is allowed and so many countries, people and organization have called out criminal activities while being the caught red handed doing the same or worse. This goes especially when the West talks and uses comparisons between Hitler and Putin. They are totally over the place and mix everything up Monarchy, Communism, Fascism and Idiocracy that they run themselves in.

walle83 wrote:
Oh shut the hell up.

Putin just invaded a free democratic nation for no reason what so ever.
Now his paying for it, with lives of young russians soldiers and a sinking russian economy.

Keep this up and Putin wont afford a single new submarine , Su-57 or Armata for the next 10 years. Its back to the 90s again.

The Russian president can take his so called red lines and shove it up his ass. Nato will now build up its forces in the east and Russia will have even more to worrie about then it had before.

I guess you have not heard of or do not know Victoria Nuland? Well in the 2014 Maidan coe (sorry democratic take over) in Ukraine this nice lady from the US State Department appointed the "democratically elected" government of Ukraine. She called the shots on who was in and who was out. Years later Zelenski won a landslide victory on the promise that he was going to bring peace to the Eastern part of Ukraine. Well I guess some people waited for him in his office on his first day at the job. Peace was not an option.