Russian Air Force numbers and procurement plans

Kimppis wrote:
And that doesn't even include 150 MiG-31BMs.

So he's not wrong. They don't actually need to upgrade those Su-27s. Sure, maybe they could be useful in 2020, but only five or so years later, not so much.  

The Foxhound is an old dog, slowly getting retired and with zero relevance to air superiority. The numbers are quite low too, 110 or so planes tops. It's a great missile platform, amazing bomber interceptor for the 1980s and 1990s, but in this day and age and when a Foxhound comes in lethal range of any Eurofighter (Meteor) even the Eagle (C7), etc. it's as good as dead or as good as irrelevant (as it'd use its speed/ceiling to GTFO).

Concerning those 100 odd Su-30s, it'd treat them more as multirole strike planes of the F-15E grade. They as well are part of an effort to cover the impending loss of hundreds of Fencers (and to a lesser extent Frogfoots).

MiG-31s aren't "slowly" getting retired, they will start getting replaced only by the late 20s.

Well, that adds 120-150 planes to the total, a very decent number, that's all.

And is that actually true, especially against older fighters? It's not like all, or even most, NATO fighters are going to be 4.5th gen or up anytime soon. Like aren't MiG-31BMs BVR capabilities still pretty good? Also, we shouldn't think that in some 1:1 terms, but as part of the overall IADS.

Kimppis wrote:MiG-31s aren't "slowly" getting retired, they will start getting replaced only by the late 20s.  

They are being retired mate. Compare their numbers in RuAF service in an early 00s and today, the fleet has been butchered to some 110 or so planes that they've (sort of) upgraded and that's it. The non-upgraded Foxhounds are as good as not serving, as they are being retired. Like retired right now as we speak. There is no funding for further upgrades and RuAF will not (and cannot) keep 1980s, hangar-queen junk serving beyond the next 2-3 years.

Kimppis wrote:Well, that adds 120-150 planes to the total, a very decent number, that's all.  

The Foxhound is in no way, shape or form an air superiority platform. It adds, sure, but I'd add its numbers to Russia's SAM force as it is an old school, fast interceptor of slow-movers. Not frontal Aviation material, as the Ruskies used to say.

Kimppis wrote:And is that actually true, especially against older fighters? It's not like all, or even most, NATO fighters are going to be 4.5th gen or up anytime soon. Like aren't MiG-31BMs BVR capabilities still pretty good? Also, we shouldn't think that in some 1:1 terms, but as part of the overall IADS.  

Its BVR capabilities while very much lethal vs slow movers, add very little to maintain air superiority over contested areas. Sure, it could work if firing in salvo its missiles against a NATO CAP packages, hoping for 1 or 0.5 kill (say over the Baltics) and then rushing for home. But the presence and dominance over contested areas won't be guaranteed.

Unless Russia has a decent number of proper fighters (>500 scattered across its geography), these solutions won't plug their big, fat air superiority hole.

That's not how I "define" "retirement". The point is that they're not being replaced yet, on the contrary, they're being upgraded.

Considering the overall size of the air force, it makes no sense to have more interceptors (okay, maybe 200 max, but still).

Those over 200 MiG-31s were "paper numbers", I don't that many were ever actually in service or properly maintained after the USSR. So no massive, if any, cut in actual numbers.

And Su-30 must certainly be counted as a fighter. I guess the Russians could've just built new Su-27s, which would probably have been cheaper as well, if such multirole capability wasn't needed, or whatever. So that's 500 "fighters" (in 2025) + 200 Su-34s and 150 MiG-31BMs + 50-100 older planes. Because if you don't count Su-30s, then Russia indeed will have more "strike fighters" (Su-30 and Su-34) than "air superiority fighters". So are the MoD's bean counters full of shit, then?

Well, I guess I can somewhat agree on that capability assessment. Defence should be the first priority anyway, so I don't see that as a massive negative. They're a plus, a force multiplier regardless. Otherwise they could've just upgraded some additional Su-27s instead?

Kimppis wrote:And Su-30 must certainly be counted as a fighter. I guess the Russians could've just built new Su-27s, which would probably have been cheaper as well, if such multirole capability wasn't needed, or whatever. So that's 500 "fighters" (in 2025) + 200 Su-34s and 150 MiG-31BMs + 50-100 older planes. Because if you don't count Su-30s, then Russia indeed will have more "strike fighters" (Su-30 and Su-34) than "air superiority fighters".

By the end of 2025 there will be no MiG-31BM of any variant, same goes for non-SMT MiG-29 and non-upgraded Su-27. All that pool of planes will be gone and there's a high chance those 40 or so Algerian rejects will either be used for DACT, training purposes or completely dumped as well.

Even if you count Su-30 in as 'air superiority fighter', it only adds 143 planes in the equation, along with the 98 Su-35s and on top of 100 or so (previously mentioned) Su-27SM/SM3. Accounting for losses every year, there will be less than 300 planes in that category by 2030 (4th Gen fighters).

For Russia that is a very low number. Considering that by that time there won't be more than 100 (or so) Su-57 funded and operational.

Counting in Fullback as 'fighter' is interesting but, in the end of the day, the Su-34 will be Russia's sole tactical bomber by the late 2020s. Su-24s (as well as Tu-22M3) will also be gone by then. Someone needs to do the bombing also.

I can't believe anyone would seriously consider the Western European armies of Nato (with all their mighty Eurofighters   ) as some sort of serious force capable of invading Russia....or any other serious conflict...can you imagine what would've happened in Yugoslavia if it was just the EU airforces taking part...they're in much worse condition these days

Last time I looked Meteor or C7 model AMRAAM do not fly 280km to hit targets, so what are you talking about KG?

The Aerospace Defence Forces value their MiG-31s are are using them operationally as we speak and are upgrading them to keep them relevant.

They are only one of a few aircraft types that actually fly supersonically for any period of time (ie MIG-25, MiG-31, SR-71 and the big supersonic bombers) for any distance.

The MiG-31s will operate in the north and engage bombers and cruise missiles but in the western front it would be able to pick off inflight refuelling tankers supporting tactical fighters and of course AWACS and JSTARS and other aircraft.

The R-37M can engage targets pulling up to 9g so pretty much any fighter carrying a load of weapons would be unable to evade it... including naval fighters.

They are developing a replacement for the MiG-31 sometimes being called MiG-41.

VKS forces aside, there's plenty of reports on NATO air-forces suffering heavily in the reliability department, with many of the Eurofighter numbers confined to simply being, ironically, "hangar queen junk."

KiloGolf wrote:By the end of 2025 there will be no MiG-31BM of any variant, same goes for non-SMT MiG-29 and non-upgraded Su-27. All that pool of planes will be gone and there's a high chance those 40 or so Algerian rejects will either be used for DACT, training purposes or completely dumped as well.

Even if you count Su-30 in as 'air superiority fighter', it only adds 143 planes in the equation, along with the 98 Su-35s and on top of 100 or so (previously mentioned) Su-27SM/SM3. Accounting for losses every year, there will be less than 300 planes in that category by 2030 (4th Gen fighters).

For Russia that is a very low number. Considering that by that time there won't be more than 100 (or so) Su-57 funded and operational.

Counting in Fullback as 'fighter' is interesting but, in the end of the day, the Su-34 will be Russia's sole tactical bomber by the late 2020s. Su-24s (as well as Tu-22M3) will also be gone by then. Someone needs to do the bombing also.

Of course those MiG-31BMs will remain in service after 2025, until atleast the early 2030s. What the hell are you talking about? They are upgrading them for a reason. The replacement ("MiG-41") won't be ready before the late 20s.

And it seems you are mixing up numbers... Do you think they will not procure new Su-30s and Su-35s after 2020? Read this again:

AMCXXL wrote:
2021-2025 54 planes per year:
12 Su-57
12 Su-35
18 SU-30SM
12 Su-34M


Then the total will be in 2025:
200 Su-34
240-250 Su-30SM (140-150 VKS & 100 in Navy)
166 Su-35
24 SU-27SM(3)
75 Su-57

705-720 planes
630-640 "Flankers"

In 2030:
200 SU-34
240-250 Su-30SM (140-150 VKS & 100 in Navy)
166-190 SU-35 (6 - 7 regiments)
135-165 Su-57 (5 regiments if 6th, then after 2030)

740-805 planes

Kilo is good at that. Making assumptions with time frames with no source to back up claims. So ignore him.

It was mentioned by Bondarev and other sources is that by 2025 or so there will be 700 new fighter jets (key word - new) so that won't include reserves (this is not going to end up like Reserves in past, they are to get new storage facilities). After that, it will be slow introduction of more Su-57's and iterations. Mikoyans future besides interceptor is the only question. MiG-31 replacement is said to be taking a priority but that won't be a thing for a long time. What about MiG-35? Don't know.

Kimppis wrote:And it seems you are mixing up numbers... Do you think they will not procure new Su-30s and Su-35s after 2020? Read this again

Those numbers are not based on firm orders (as of today) but forecasting.
It's quite tricky to try and predict the future like that, as money and military orders do not necessarily follow past trends.

You know, most of you people should be concerned with Russia planning (or not) to maintain the same number of fighters as Israel.
No need to shoot the messenger.

PS. you're welcome.

They can always increase fighter production if they deem it necessary....I would imagine increasing production of Su-30's and Su-35's wouldn't be that difficult if need be

Okay, WTF... Israel!? Again, even if you don't include Su-34 and MiG-31s and some older fighters (which IMO, you should), Russia will still have more than 600 fighters (and AGAIN, closer to 1000, when you include Su-34s and MiG-31s, etc.). Israel has... less than 300?    

I think they pretty much confirmed that those procurement numbers are going to remain roughly the same past 2020. I think it was mentioned by Franco a while back, might have been a year ago. There's also really no reason to believe that the procurement will somehow massively change. 700 new "fighters" by 2025 sounds about right, yes. It's not like that prediction is somehow hugely optimistic either, if anything it's the bare minimum.

The US is about to violate the INF treaty by installing land based Mk-41 cruise missile launchers as part of their ABM shield in Europe.. when that happens it will be rather cheap to triple the range of the Iskander to about 1,500km and fit them with nuke warheads....

Once they do that what use will NATO airfields be?

And with their new main fighter F-35 costing as much as it will who will have more than a few dozen anyway?

GarryB wrote:And with their new main fighter F-35 costing as much as it will who will have more than a few dozen anyway?

I was thinking the same, although it will be a few years yet before the F-35 becomes the main fighter...probably beyond 2025 IMO

miketheterrible wrote:It was mentioned by Bondarev and other sources is that by 2025 or so there will be 700 new fighter jets (key word - new) so that won't include reserves (this is not going to end up like Reserves in past, they are to get new storage facilities).  After that, it will be slow introduction of more Su-57's and iterations. Mikoyans future besides interceptor is the only question. MiG-31 replacement is said to be taking a priority but that won't be a thing for a long time. What about MiG-35? Don't know.

If I'm not wrong, Migs are produced in just one production line near Moscow. The production of mig-35 will be very slow unless they invest in new assembly lines. Reaching the 170 Mig-35 will take quite some years.

Kimppis wrote:Why only include "air superiority" fighters, KiloGolf?

He are his estimates for 2025 from the Su-27 thread:

AMCXXL wrote:
2021-2025 54 planes per year:
12 Su-57
12 Su-35
18 SU-30SM
12 Su-34M


Then the total will be in 2025:
200 Su-34
240-250 Su-30SM (140-150 VKS & 100 in Navy)
166 Su-35
24 SU-27SM(3)
75 Su-57

705-720 planes
630-640 "Flankers"

In 2030:
200 SU-34
240-250 Su-30SM (140-150 VKS & 100 in Navy)
166-190 SU-35 (6 - 7 regiments)
135-165 Su-57 (5 regiments if 6th, then after 2030)

740-805 planes

And that doesn't even include 150 MiG-31BMs.

So he's not wrong. They don't actually need to upgrade those Su-27s. Sure, maybe they could be useful in 2020, but only five or so years later, not so much.  

Hello:
This was a discussion about number of newly built aircrafts we can expect until 2025, so the MiG-29 and MiG-31 are excluded, and also the Su-27 except the Su-27SM3 new and modernized (if in the end they modernize some)

Since the huge cuts of  2009 , the RuAF has been operating about 600 fighters , and this included all less Su-33 because all the regiments less 279 KAIP were trensfered back to airforce in the reform of that year.
About 240 Su-27 , 240 MiG-29 and 125 MiG-31

Nowadays , the numbers basically are the same because the mew airplanes are replacing the older , and also there were a lot of planes retired and regiments cuttued fron 3 to 2 squadrons after 2013

However the Navy received again in late 2014 some regiments from the Airforce, so now there are about 630 figthers , 520 in RuAF and 110 in Navy

The total number of 700 only for the RuAF in 2025 is not real because the main increase will be the Su-30SM in the Navy, in the RuAF is necesary to wait for the Su-57

The modernized Su-27 will be retired in 2025 or 2026 , and the MiG-29 about 2020 except some UB´s of instructons centers

Basically we can expect in 2020-2025:

6 regiments of Su-27/35 + kubinka , lipestk, etc...
4 regiments of MiG-31 + Savasleyka
3-4 regments of Su-30SM + kubinka, etc...
0-1 regiments of MiG-29SMT and 1 squsdron now in Astrakhan
and later, 2 regiments of Su-57 in 2025
MiG-35 only in suqdrons (Erebuni, Kubinka, Astrakhan)
16 regiments and some squadrons

In the Navy:
2 regiments "flankers" (Kaliningrado and 279KIAP)
3-4 regiments Su-30SM (if there are regiment for Pacific Fleet)
2 regiments or squadrons of MiG-31

7/8 regiments


This means at least 25% of the airplanes will be in the Navy, so is not posible 700 in the RuAF. Only if Su-34 is included it is possible to overcome that number
There will be 600 in RuAF and 150-200 in te Navy

Anyway is necesary wait for the new State Armament Program

miketheterrible wrote:But if the Su-27SM3 gives the Su-27 similar capabilities to M2, then it's not bad at all. And if cost is very low, that's even better.

M2 is for instruction of new squadrons
Are you sure that Rusisa pay for all the gadgets of the Su-30MK2 for the Su-30M2 ??


Su-27SM3 is an intermediate step between soviet Su-27 and russian Su-35S , made for fill the gap at Krymsk
The rest is western literarure

Kimppis wrote:That's not how I "define" "retirement". The point is that they're not being replaced yet, on the contrary, they're being upgraded.

Considering the overall size of the air force, it makes no sense to have more interceptors (okay, maybe 200 max, but still).

Those over 200 MiG-31s were "paper numbers", I don't that many were ever actually in service or properly maintained after the USSR. So no massive, if any, cut in actual numbers.    

And Su-30 must certainly be counted as a fighter. I guess the Russians could've just built new Su-27s, which would probably have been cheaper as well, if such multirole capability wasn't needed, or whatever. So that's 500 "fighters" (in 2025) + 200 Su-34s and 150 MiG-31BMs + 50-100 older planes. Because if you don't count Su-30s, then Russia indeed will have more "strike fighters" (Su-30 and Su-34) than "air superiority fighters". So are the MoD's bean counters full of shit, then?

Well, I guess I can somewhat agree on that capability assessment. Defence should be the first priority anyway, so I don't see that as a massive negative. They're a plus, a force multiplier regardless. Otherwise they could've just upgraded some additional Su-27s instead?  

Production of MIiG-31:
519
349 MiG-31 (since 1980)
101 MiG-31DZ (leta 80´s)
69 MiG-31B (about 15 for Kazakstán) in the 90´s
other similar ammount MiG-31 upgraded to MiG-31BS in the 90´s

In 1994 Russia had 16 regiments. In 1997-98 the fusión of VVS with PVO reduced to 12. In 2001 and 2002 six more regiments cutted.
Sincé then basically there are MiG-B/BS and several dozens of DZ´s abut 160 airplanes
In 2009 , 10 squadrons and 125 MiG-31
The planes stored in flying condition in Lipestk (40-50) have been used for modernization.
Other 70 are in 514 ARZ used for parts, most older versions


The modernization will be 110 for VVS (4 regiments and 1 conversión squadron) and 2 more squadrons or regiments (still not clear) for Navy , other 25-50
The number contracted is more than 130. in 2007-2011 near 20 (now in the Navy and Savasleyka), then 60 in 2011 for VVS and 53 in 2015

Su-27/35= Figther
Su-30SM= Strike figther
Su-34= Figther-Bomber (Su-27IB=истребитель-бомбардировщик)

The question is not what the plane can do, is how the russians use it

The Su-27's upgrade is called Su-35

George1 wrote:2017 Deliveries Update

Su-30SM: 17 (12 to VKS, 5 to Ru Navy)
Su-35S: 10
Su-34: 12

Νοw we wait only the last 4 Su-34 for 2017 delivery program

In fact , we still have not seen the supposed last Su-34. We only know that "two batches" have been acepted by RuAF.
We must wait the photos to know the destination

Kimppis wrote:Okay, WTF... Israel!? Again, even if you don't include Su-34 and MiG-31s and some older fighters (which IMO, you should), Russia will still have more than 600 fighters (and AGAIN, closer to 1000, when you include Su-34s and MiG-31s, etc.). Israel has... less than 300?    

I think they pretty much confirmed that those procurement numbers are going to remain roughly the same past 2020. I think it was mentioned by Franco a while back, might have been a year ago. There's also really no reason to believe that the procurement will somehow massively change. 700 new "fighters" by 2025 sounds about right, yes. It's not like that prediction is somehow hugely optimistic either, if anything it's the bare minimum.

Russia has ober 600 included the MiG-31
Counting the Su-34, Su-24 and SU-25 are near 1100

miketheterrible wrote:It was mentioned by Bondarev and other sources is that by 2025 or so there will be 700 new fighter jets (key word - new) so that won't include reserves (this is not going to end up like Reserves in past, they are to get new storage facilities).  After that, it will be slow introduction of more Su-57's and iterations. Mikoyans future besides interceptor is the only question. MiG-31 replacement is said to be taking a priority but that won't be a thing for a long time. What about MiG-35? Don't know.

MiG-35 was delayed past decade because RuAF dont want it. No money , no MiG-35 , it is so simply

In the end, the expected contract for MiG.35 is a political purchase

The "new 700 figthers" includes Su-34

KiloGolf wrote:

Kimppis wrote:And Su-30 must certainly be counted as a fighter. I guess the Russians could've just built new Su-27s, which would probably have been cheaper as well, if such multirole capability wasn't needed, or whatever. So that's 500 "fighters" (in 2025) + 200 Su-34s and 150 MiG-31BMs + 50-100 older planes. Because if you don't count Su-30s, then Russia indeed will have more "strike fighters" (Su-30 and Su-34) than "air superiority fighters".

By the end of 2025 there will be no MiG-31BM of any variant, same goes for non-SMT MiG-29 and non-upgraded Su-27. All that pool of planes will be gone and there's a high chance those 40 or so Algerian rejects will either be used for DACT, training purposes or completely dumped as well.

Even if you count Su-30 in as 'air superiority fighter', it only adds 143 planes in the equation, along with the 98 Su-35s and on top of 100 or so (previously mentioned) Su-27SM/SM3. Accounting for losses every year, there will be less than 300 planes in that category by 2030 (4th Gen fighters).

For Russia that is a very low number. Considering that by that time there won't be more than 100 (or so) Su-57 funded and operational.

Counting in Fullback as 'fighter' is interesting but, in the end of the day, the Su-34 will be Russia's sole tactical bomber by the late 2020s. Su-24s (as well as Tu-22M3) will also be gone by then. Someone needs to do the bombing also.

98 Su-35 as minimun in 2020, more contract when needed starting in 2018 with Su-30SM and Su-34
The state arms program is already outlined, after the re-election of Putin, will be announced by the incoming defense minister


In 2025 there will be:
60 Su-57
165 Su-35
120-140 Su-30SM
110 MiG-31
50 MiG-35
50 MiG-29SMT (if Russia dont sell the "algerians")
20 Su-30M2
575-600

In the Navy:
20 Su-33
24 Su-27SM3 (if finally is modernized one Sq.)
24-48 MiG-31
80-105 Su-30SM (if there are regiment in Pacific Fleet)
150-200