World Economic News and Discussion

sepheronx wrote:

Werewolf wrote:

sepheronx wrote:TPP will benefit Vietnam way more than Canada.  We are effectively screwed in Canada due to TPP.  I figure the people who sign up for it are nothing but traitors.

TTIP won't benefit anyone but elites in US, it will open havoc to industries, health of population and minimum wage laws will be lifted sooner or later. Slave labour with genetic MSO genocide and pharmaindustry like in US were all hospitals are private and you pay 400-800 USD for 1 liter salty water for infusion.

I don't think it will pass all nations parliament.  But there is a chance that it might.  I wonder if people will end up going to the streets?  Doubt it, as people are pretty damn lazy.

Haha, with the current flood of immigrants on US behalf, the entire TTIP will be pressed through regardless who says or does what. The question is not if, but when they push it through and how fucked up it gets afterwards. It will be certainly no place you want to live by then.

Peter Schiff: We're In Deep Economic Shit!

Another Great Interview with David Stockman

The economies of the world are going down because bankers like the Rothschilds are coming to collect the money they loaned out.

sepheronx wrote:Incorrect. China is fudging numbers to Grow, dont even know about India but figures my wife states tells a different picture depending on region (she is Punjabi), and US middle class has shrunk considerably.  EU and US survived through Quantitative Easing which isnt something good.

Us Middle Class: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-09/rich-middle-class-poor-middle-class

Chinas fake.GDP: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-17/furious-china-lashes-out-critics-its-rigged-gdp-data

Hard to do this stuff on mobile phone....

Canada and Brazil are also getting hit real hard.  Mexico lost a lot due to oil prices but made up for it in other areas like manufacturing and tourism while Canada is increasing debt drastically just to upkeep. Brazil is doing bad for tons of reasons and one has to do with its heavy handed corruption schemes like Petrobras that got exposed.

The world is living off of borrowed time. QE will only work for so long and it is pretty sad that both EU and US has had something like 3 - 4 QE's in 1 year.  If they didnt do that, then their GDP growth and money supply would end up in the negatives as they cant pay bach their excessive debts.  So they are just kicking the can further.

Poverty is rampant in India don't fall for Modi PR Media secondly good luck in believing Zerohedge fear pron on China's Economy. IF you're really keen in following China's Economy then go to Orient.

max steel wrote:

sepheronx wrote:Incorrect. China is fudging numbers to Grow, dont even know about India but figures my wife states tells a different picture depending on region (she is Punjabi), and US middle class has shrunk considerably.  EU and US survived through Quantitative Easing which isnt something good.

Us Middle Class: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-09/rich-middle-class-poor-middle-class

Chinas fake.GDP: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-17/furious-china-lashes-out-critics-its-rigged-gdp-data

Hard to do this stuff on mobile phone....

Canada and Brazil are also getting hit real hard.  Mexico lost a lot due to oil prices but made up for it in other areas like manufacturing and tourism while Canada is increasing debt drastically just to upkeep. Brazil is doing bad for tons of reasons and one has to do with its heavy handed corruption schemes like Petrobras that got exposed.

The world is living off of borrowed time. QE will only work for so long and it is pretty sad that both EU and US has had something like 3 - 4 QE's in 1 year.  If they didnt do that, then their GDP growth and money supply would end up in the negatives as they cant pay bach their excessive debts.  So they are just kicking the can further.

Poverty is rampant in India don't fall for Modi PR Media secondly good luck in believing Zerohedge fear pron on China's Economy. IF you're really keen in following China's Economy then go to Orient.

http://atimes.com/2015/07/fitch-moodys-say-china-stock-drop-wont-affect-economy/

Who lies to who?

Kimppis wrote:

The world is *actually* not in recession. Cut that conspiracy BS. Countries like China and India are doing well, the global middle class and consumption are growing, poverty is decreasing, so there's no way that that would even make any sense. (Other than that, I don't disagree.)

You should cut the BS yourself, sunshine:

Actually, the best evidence that the world is in a recession is the oil price. You cannot explain the oil price with some
mythical supply glut. The same level of glut was there in 2008 but the oil price hit $147 per barrel. It then crashed because there
was recession starting in late 2008 through 2009. We are in the same pattern. The difference this time around is that China's
growth is weaker than in 2008 and it is not as effective in acting like a "governor" pulling the rest of the world out of a recession.

Yeah, Zerohedge is such a great source! They are not biased at all against the US and Chinese economies. Everything is going to collapse tomorrow!

It's absolutely undeniable that China is still growing well. The middle class, consumption and services... they all have great growth rates. I don't have any reason to doubt the Indian numbers either, that just goes to conspiracy territory, but of course they are still quite poor overall, way behind China for instance.

I don't doubt that the "western" middle class is shrinking, but it's certainly growing globally, and fast. China, India, most of Asia, large parts of Africa...  

And I don't think oil prices tell you all that much. For one thing, oil consumption must still be growing globally, certainly that has to be the case with the overall energy consumption and that growth is probably roughly the same as it was before.

And you know why global trade is down? Dollar's value has gone up, there have numerous devalutions across the globe, so that's actually not surprising in dollar terms. I'd imagine that the volume is still growing. The trade between Russia and China is actually a great example. It's down considerably in dollars due to ruble's devalutions, but the volume is still growing, atleast in many categories.

WTF? Some of you are just rambling your conspiracy BS and "fake" this and "fake" that.

I'm basing my opinion on statistics and long-term trends.

India's growth rate for this year is roughly 7.5%. For China 6.5-7%. The global groth rate for this year: 3-3.5%. With those kind of growth rates energy and commodity consumption must also be growing. No reason to believe that those numbers are any more unreliable than the Russian ones.  

And I already "admitted" that India is poor. Of course it's. But that is changing, and comparatively rapidly.

What I think atleast partially explains the decrease in oil and other commodity prices has been the (expected) change in the structure of the Chinese economy. For a few decades China basically hoarded all kinds of commodities and the demand was so high that the prices skyrocketed too. Now the world has somehow suddenly noticed that the structure of the massive Chinese economy has changed, and is changing in the future, and in turn the growth rate in that demand for these different resources is going to change, so for the time being, the prices have kind of "overreacted".

Not to mention that global recession would be blatantly evident to everyone. It would be undeniable. And that was the case in 2009.  

And I didn't say Zerohedge is wrong about everything, but they're clearly extremely biased against the US and Chinese economies, and well, the global economy in general. Literally, everything is going to collapse soon!!! OMG!

Of course a crisis (even a global one) is bound to happen sooner or later, but I don't see any reason to believe that it's going to imminent. Who knows? No one.  

Nothing I said earlier was in anyway "extraordinary", on the contrary. Jeez...

sepheronx wrote:Um.

You are basing it off of opinion.

We used data.  Thank you very much.

Would you like us to go through this data again with you?  More links as well?

Here is what is helping support GDP growth:

http://www.thelocal.es/20140925/sex-and-drugs-add-9-billion-to-spains-gdp

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/10853756/Italy-to-boost-GDP-figures-with-drugs-and-prostitution.html

http://www.financierworldwide.com/gdp-to-include-illegal-activity/#.VkLlZberSUk

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jun/10/accounting-drugs-prostitution-uk-economy-gdp-eu-rules

May be 2014 but this just gives you the good indication how numbers can be fudged easily.

So those statistics are just my opinion!? WTF?

And as you know very well, they are extremely easty to find. They are everywhere. http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects

OK, so those percentages are pretty small. Doesn't make a huge difference to one way or another. It's also entirely another thing to "fake" the total GDP. Not to mention that I was mainly talking about non-western countries, those countries that are also having the highest growth rates.

And things are not "all good" in the US and EU, their growth rates are pretty bad. Well, EU in particular, the US is apparently growing quite well. Europe is certainly stagnating. It's also true that the global growth has slowed, but not massively.

sepheronx wrote:

Kimppis wrote:

sepheronx wrote:Um.

You are basing it off of opinion.

We used data.  Thank you very much.

Would you like us to go through this data again with you?  More links as well?

Here is what is helping support GDP growth:

http://www.thelocal.es/20140925/sex-and-drugs-add-9-billion-to-spains-gdp

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/10853756/Italy-to-boost-GDP-figures-with-drugs-and-prostitution.html

http://www.financierworldwide.com/gdp-to-include-illegal-activity/#.VkLlZberSUk

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jun/10/accounting-drugs-prostitution-uk-economy-gdp-eu-rules

May be 2014 but this just gives you the good indication how numbers can be fudged easily.

So those statistics are just my opinion!? WTF?

And as you know very well, they are extremely easty to find. They are everywhere. http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects

OK, so those percentages are pretty small. Doesn't make a huge difference to one way or another. It's also entirely another thing to "fake" the total GDP. Not to mention that I was mainly talking about non-western countries, those countries that are also having the highest growth rates.

Yes, because growth rates actually reflect reality.  If growth rates reflect reality, then how come the US middle class is shrinking?  Their GDP is continuously going up, so theoretically, their middle class should also grow!  Asian countries like India relies heavily on domestic consumers, and the fact that their population is second largest in the world adds a lot to that fact, and their population is increasing.  Also, costs of goods is increasing, likes its forever growing costs on onions.  People are viewing they are getting richer but reality is that they are just as poor as before.  They make more than before, but costs of goods also cost more than before.  There is a large middle class, but face the facts that with a massive population, there is a massive middle class bound to be.  And the middle class of India isn't considered same as middle class anywhere else.  But that is where PPP takes effect.

What constitutes the growth?  If Max's post is about how India's exports drastically dropped, then where is this money coming from?  It is always worth looking at what constitutes the numbers, not the number itself.

That's a good question. Inequality is probably also growing and due to inflation the (US) definition of middle class is also changing. So richer are getting richer and poorer are getting poorer. But US GDP per capita is extremely high, they are very rich, so their "stage" of average economic development is totally different from the likes of India. The growth is probably mostly coming from the domestic activity. That's why global convergence is happening. That's why the rest of the world is catching up. Because they can.

Yes, there's population growth, there's inflation, but despite all those things, many poor countries are getting richer and their living standards are growing when the growth rate is high enough. And it seems to be high enough in India. It certainly high enough in China, in many other Asian countries and in many countries in Africa. This development is undeniable. And this all is a historical change. The world is returning back to "normal", for the first time after industrialization, the differences in living standards between regions and between countries will be smaller. The global economy is... well comparatively global and most countries have gotten rid of the shitty central planning. So this all was bound to happen. Of course, global warming will be a major challenge in the future.

And the definition of middle class in this discussion is the following: The people that can afford more than the most basic necessities, more or less, people that are not living in absolute poverty and they don't have to only think about day-to-day survival.

Good Interview with Peter Schiff


Political Prisoners, Economic Delusions, and Escaping the Next Crisis

DISTORTED, TWISTED & BACKWARD FINANCIAL MARKETS FRA w/Puru Saxena

Colossal Failure

AIIB to Issue Loans in US Dollars

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) will credit projects in US dollars while attracting capital in other currencies, AIIB President Jin Liqun said Sunday.

"We lend only in US dollars," Jin said at a press conference, answering question on whether the institution would issue loans in other denominations.
He clarified that other currencies, including the euro and the yuan, could be used to attract capital from the international market.

The bank, seen as a rival to Western-dominated international institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, was officially launched on Saturday with $100 billion in capital.
Jin, president-designate as of August, was confirmed AIIB's first president at its inaugural session.


AIIB, with 57 founding countries, is set to begin looking into infrastructure and energy project loans by mid-2016, Russian Economic Development Minister and AIIB Board of Governors member Alexei Ulyukayev said on Saturday.
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) will issue its first loans before the end of 2016, bank President Jin Liqun said.


Jin, who was confirmed as the institution’s first leader at its inaugural session after an opening ceremony on Saturday, further declined to enumerate the projects planned to be co-financed with other financial institutions.


AIIB, with 57 founding member countries and $100 in initial capital, is seen as a rival to Western-dominated institutions such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund.
Russian Economic Development Minister and AIIB Board of Governors member Alexei Ulyukaev said on Saturday the bank was set to begin considering infrastructure and energy project loans by the second quarter of 2016.

Canada's gold reserves are now basically nil but were around 1000 tons during the 1960s. I find the above chart interesting
since it correlates with Canada's golden age (no pun intended). Back in the 1960s you could buy a good house in Canada for
cheap and the standard of living was high. Now Canada is de facto poor as real estate is insanely overpriced and the real
inflation rate for food is about 7% per year. I have been in Canada long enough to see the degradation of the standard of
living.

sepheronx wrote:This hits closer to home, and KVS should read this, and any other Canadians here:
"Jingle Mail" Makes Comeback In Canada As Underwater Borrowers Mail Keys Back To Banks

It points to Alberta which is being devastated by the low oil prices. But really the situation in Canada is deteriorating for a long time and the current
oil prices do not explain it:



Instead of having real incomes Canadians are progressively living in a credit fantasy land like Americans.