Russia's National Defense Strategy issues

Apparently Shoigu's first press interview in 7 years. Interesting read.

https://www.mk.ru/politics/2019/09/22/sergey-shoygu-rasskazal-kak-spasali-rossiyskuyu-armiyu.html

Russian key to Asia: Moscow has found a balance between world powers: https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2731091.html

IMO, Russia should erect a chain of high hills on her Western border, across the the E. European plain to make any future ground invasion impossible or very costly.
It may take a long time & a lot of $, but in the long run will save more $ & lives, just lie the Great Wall of China did.

Defective defense of Primorye

The Trans-Siberian Railway is still the longest railway in the world. Its zero kilometer is at the Yaroslavl station of Moscow, the last, 9288th, at the station of Vladivostok. This railway connecting Vladivostok with the rest of Russia seems to strengthen its strategic position. But in fact, the situation is extremely difficult. Vladivostok and neighboring Artem, Nakhodka, Ussuriysk, other cities and villages of the southern part of Primorsky Krai are located just a few turns of the border from the main territory of the country, and the Trans-Siberian Railway passes right next to this border. China is located abroad, which is officially listed as our strategic partner, but in reality it represents the most serious threat to the eastern regions of Russia, and to Russia as a whole. Vladivostok and neighboring cities are sandwiched between the Chinese border and the ocean, which we also do not control. There is nowhere to retreat from here, no reinforcements to be expected from. Even the islands and peninsulas of the Far East (Sakhalin, Kuril Islands, Kamchatka, Chukotka) that do not have land communications with the mainland  the situation is not that, to put it mildly not easy.

The defense of Primorye is carried out by the 5th army with headquarters in Ussuriysk. It consists of eight brigades and one regiment.

The 59th motorized rifle brigade is deployed in the village of Sergeevka, the 60th motorized rifle brigade is in the village. Kamen-Rybolov and the Monastery, 70th motorized rifle brigade - in s. Drum In total, they are armed with 123 T-72B tanks, 240 BMP-1 tanks (yes, still!), More than 80 BTR-80s, about 200 MTLBs, more than 100 152-mm self-propelled guns 2S3 Akatsiya and 2S19 Msta-S ", More than 50 120-mm mortars 2S12" Sani ", 54 122-mm MLRS BM-21" Grad ", up to 40 self-propelled anti-tank systems" Competition "(also still), up to 20 100-mm anti-tank vehicles MT-12, not less than 40 air defense systems "Tor-M2U" and "Strela-10", up to 20 ZSU-23-4 "Shilka" (again, until now). Currently, the 127th Motorized Rifle Division with headquarters in Sergeevka is being reconstructed on the basis of these three brigades. In particular, the 59th Motorized Rifle Brigade was transformed into the 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment of this division. At the same time, the T-80BV tanks (lifted from storage), and not the T-72, are likely to be in service with the division.

The 20th Missile Brigade (Spassk-Dalniy) has 12 ISK Iskander launchers in service.

The 305th artillery brigade (Ussuriysk) has 18 152-mm self-propelled guns 2S5 "Hyacinth", 8 240-mm self-propelled mortars 2С4 "Tulip", 8 MLRS "Hurricane", 18 self-propelled anti-tank systems "Sturm-S", 6 anti-tank missiles MT-12 .

Also in Ussuriysk, the 80th command brigade, the 101st MTO brigade, and the 8th anti-aircraft missile brigade with three divisions of the Buk-M1 air defense missile systems were deployed. In the village Sergeevka is stationed the 25th RKhBZ regiment with 3 flamethrower MLRS TOS-1A.

In addition, the 5th Army includes two bases for the storage and repair of weapons and equipment (bhirvt). The 245th bhirvt is located in the city of Lesozavodsk, the 247th bhirvt is in the village. The monastery. Each of them is a folded motorized rifle brigade.

Four more brigades, one regiment and one bhirvt, stationed in Primorye, report directly to the command of the BBO.

In Ussuriysk, the 83rd Air Assault Brigade, the 338th RSZO Brigade with 18 Uragan MLRS, and the 7020th Bhirvt (collapsed artillery brigade) are deployed. The 106th communications brigade was deployed in the city of Dalnerechensk, the 92nd radio engineering brigade in the village of Starosysoevka, and the 7th radio engineering regiment in Artyom.

Two air regiments and an army aviation base are deployed from the 11th Air Force and Air Defense Army with headquarters in Khabarovsk in Primorye.

The 22nd Fighter Aviation Regiment is deployed at the Tsentralnaya-Uglovaya aerodrome in the city of Artem. In service, it has 22 MiG-31BSM interceptors, 11 new Su-35S fighters and 4 Su-30M2 fighter-bomber, up to 9 older, but modernized Su-27SM fighters and 2 combat training Su-27UB.

The 18th assault air regiment is deployed at the Chernigovka airfield; it has 24 Su-25SM attack aircraft in service. At the same airfield, the 575th Army Airbase with 36 Mi-24P and Ka-52 combat helicopters and 19 Mi-8AMTSH multi-role helicopters is deployed.

The 93rd Air Defense Division with headquarters in Vladivostok includes the 344th Radio Technical Regiment (in Artyom) and two anti-aircraft missile regiments: 589th in Nakhodka with two S-400 air defense divisions and 1533rd in Vladivostok, also with two S-400 air defense divisions and one S-300PS air defense missile division.

Vladivostok is the main base of the Pacific Fleet, its main surface forces, shipbuilding and ship repair base are deployed here.

In total, the Pacific Fleet Primorsky Flotilla has 7 submarines of pr. 877 (B-187 Komsomolsk-on-Amur, B-190 Krasnokamensk, B-345 Mogocha, B-394 Nurlat, B-464 Ust -Kamchatsk ”, B-445“ Nikolai the Miracle Worker ”, B-494“ Ust-Bolsheretsk ”), missile cruiser“ Varyag ”, pr. 1164, 3 destroyers, pr. 956 (“ Stormy ”,“ Fast ”,“ Fearless ”), 4 BOD Project 1155 (Admiral Panteleev, Admiral Tributs, Admiral Vinogradov, Marshal Shaposhnikov), 4 IPC Project 1124M (IPC-17 Ust-Ilimsk, MPK-64 Metel, MPK ‑221 “Primorsky” and MPK ‑ 222 “Koreets”), 1 missile boat, Project 1241T (R ‑ 79) and 10 Project 12411 (R ‑ 11, R ‑ 14, R ‑ 18, R 19, P-20, P-2 4, P-29, P-261, P-297, P-298), 3 base minesweeps, pr. 1265 (BT-100, BT-114, BT-232), BDK " Nikolay Vilkov ”, pr. 1171, 3 BDK pr. 775 (BDK-11“ Peresvet ”, BDK-98“ Admiral Nevelskaya ”, BDK-101“ Oslyabya ”) and the landing boat“ Ivan Kartsov ”pr. 21820.

72nd Coastal Missile Brigade deployed in the village. Smolyaninovo near Vladivostok. It includes three divisions - two divisions of PKKK “Bastion” and one division of PKKK “Bal”. In fact, Vladivostok is hiding behind only one Bastion division, the other two divisions are transferred to the southern Kuril Islands disputed by Japan. The PKKK Bastion division is located on about. Iturup, division of PKK "Ball" - on about. Kunashir.

The 155th Marine Brigade is stationed in Vladivostok. It is armed with at least 10 T-80BV tanks, up to 60 BTR-80 and BTR-82A, up to 20 self-propelled guns 2S1 and 2S9, 6 MLRS BM-21, SAM "Strela-10", SAM "Tunguska".

At the 7062nd naval aviation base (Nikolaevka, Nakhodka airdrome) there are 6 IL-38 anti-submarine aircraft (including 2 modernized IL-38N), 1 VKP Il-22, 7 Ka-27 anti-submarine helicopters, 6 Ka-29 attack aircraft and 2 multipurpose Mi-8s. 12 air transport aircraft of the Pacific Fleet are based at the Knevichi airfield in Artem.

The grouping of the RF Armed Forces deployed in Primorye will not allow Japan to land troops here, but it is unlikely to prevent the region from being blocked by the Sea of ​​Japan. The same applies to the US Navy. But Russian troops in the Vladivostok region, unfortunately, will not be able to confront the PLA for at least a long time, given the enormous quantitative, and in many respects qualitative superiority of the enemy. The Russian group has no room for maneuver; it has neither a pre-field, nor operational, nor strategic depth. You can only retreat into the ocean or, at best, into the Sikhote-Alin mountains (and there you can proceed to a guerrilla war, which, alas, will be able to be waged for very short time without external support). The situation is aggravated by a very high proportion of openly obsolete equipment in service with Russian units and, as was said at the beginning, the lack of a real opportunity to receive reinforcements and supplies from the mainland.

Thus, the group defending the “far, but nashenny” region is completely inadequate to the situation on the theater of military operations. However, it is not very clear what efforts should be made to eliminate this inadequacy. Perhaps that is why no effort, in fact, is being undertaken at all. The “injections” of modern technology into the units and formations deployed here (Iskander, Tor-M2U, S-400, Su-35S, Ka-52, “Bal” and “Bastion”) are so insignificant in volume that in no way they cannot affect the general balance of forces in the region (at the same time, the equipment of the ground forces, which the main burden of the war will certainly fall on, is not being updated at all). But the volumes of false propaganda demagogy about “strategic partnership” and “unprecedented good relations” with Beijing are infinitely large.

About the author: Alexander Khramchikhin - Deputy Director of the Institute for Political and Military Analysis.

But the volumes of false propaganda demagogy about “strategic partnership” and “unprecedented good relations” with Beijing are infinitely large.

Lol, that's not "false propaganda," it's the truth.

And suuuuuure, a Chinese surprise attack is a serious possibility in the near future. USN and USAF don't exist, apparently.

So the remaining 30% of Ground Forces will be modernized to the "2020 standard" by 2028, I assume?

So he is assuming that China will just invade Siberia.  Gee, I wonder where I keep hearing that from - oh yeah, the American backed propagandists in Russia.

So far, China could and they didn't.  Plus Russia has nukes so they could just easily nuke China's major cities if they decide to attack in large forces.

I think the "strategist" is a retarded faggot and knows zero about military.

Just an FYI but Siberia region was always rather under armed and under enforced and yet they managed to kick china's ass in 69.  China had superior numbers.  And quality equipment?  This guy is a delusional moron.  China has proven their quality doesn't exist.  They always used numbers and it never worked out for them.

Yeah, you gotta protract from any potential enemy. That includes China. But lets be real here, Russia doesn't have the manpower to do all of that. So instead the best they can hope for is leaving a buffer zone and just make it clear that any northern positions of China will be struck hard, and so will their HQ's in inner china.

China is so damn concentrated they have nowhere to flee back to incase of a nuclear strike. Most of China's positions are concentrated on the east and western borders because India would take advantage of a war between Russia and China.

So far, China could and they didn't.  Plus Russia has nukes so they could just easily nuke China's major cities if they decide to attack in large forces.

Many forget that. Giving a nuclear power that also has 100  long range bombers armed with long range cruise missiles the right to defend itself put you in a terrible position (i.e Turkey downing su24) and that's only at that moment you know you fucked up.

Another exemple is the interception by those small european countries in the baltic where any little incident can bring them to the reality of becoming a big target for russian weapons and no one will save them.

China is so damn concentrated they have nowhere to flee back to incase of a nuclear strike. Most of China's positions are concentrated on the east and western borders because India would take advantage of a war between Russia and China.

Many don't won't to see the reality. China is looking at the south for its expension and is already grabing it but they are stuck with this idea of expension in siberia.

Frankly speaking they have no interest in Siberia which is totaly empty and cold land. Most chinese couldn't survive 1 year there. It's easier for them to buy from russia what they need.

China has proven their quality doesn't exist.

Their latest MLRS r longer range than their Russian counterparts, & the Soviet Grads stopped the Maoists in 1969.

Frankly speaking they have no interest in Siberia which is totaly empty and cold land. Most chinese couldn't survive 1 year there. It's easier for them to buy from russia what they need.

Right. Only the area close  & along the border is suitable for Chinese way of life & agriculture. If they were to acquire Siberia, it will be another Tibet & Sinkiang- as big areas r populated by nationalistic Buryats (Tibetan Buddhist Mongols) & animist Yakuts, besides many other natives.

their MLRS system is no different than the american ALCADS system in the sense it isn't long range. Only two missiles are.

The system includes more than just missiles.
Maximum firing range 190 mi (300 km)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140_ATACMS

SY-400 is a further development of SY-300, that can carry either two short-range ballistic missiles BP-12A with range of 400 km or twelve 300 mm PHL-03 rockets.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weishi_Rockets#SY-400

Have a nice day!

Tsavo Lion wrote:The system includes more than just missiles.
Maximum firing range 190 mi (300 km)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140_ATACMS

SY-400 is a further development of SY-300, that can carry either two short-range ballistic missiles BP-12A with range of 400 km or twelve 300 mm PHL-03 rockets.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weishi_Rockets#SY-400

Have a nice day!

That's an easy target for buk-m2, buk-m3, S-300pmu2 and s-300V/V4. I would bet that even tor could destroy them.

Moreover attacking 400km away require good intel. Even then they would do very little damage because since the apparition of nuclear warheads the doctrine is to widespread the troops across the terrain so that they can't be targeted all togather.

Moreover su-25 would be the king of the air over there since there is few airbases in those lost lands and with its an 124 russia will bring faster and more equipment giving them the opportunity to destroy chinese airfields before they are able to protect them. Su-25 would destroy any armoured division trying to come deeper than 100km inside russia. Su-57 would take out any chinese bomber with r-37 and any chinese jets with r-77M. Su-34 would take out supply lines.

In terms of tanks, russians are ahead and their french thermals are a game changer against chinese.

Institute for Political and Military Analysis is a Moscow based Russian non-government Think Tank, who also does research for the Russian government, security services, military and business. Members are for the most part considered conservative by Western sources as opposed to liberal. My take on the article was the writer was complaining the Russian government and military were not putting enough defensive resources in the East. Most Westerns are oblivious to the fact that Putin's main opposition in Russia is not the western style liberals but Communists first followed closely by conservative Russian nationalists.

The USSR had a big contingent in Mongolia for many years against any Chinese aggressive move in the FE. Today, Russia can always send tank & air armies to Mongolia-it has a rail line to the Chinese border & a few big airfields- from there, it's not too far from Beijing.
As long as Russia has nukes & stays together, she has nothing to fear from China.

Non-Debate: Russia is building China's Early Warning System, their won't be any war between them....any other aspect of this debate isn't even worth discussing.

franco wrote:Institute for Political and Military Analysis is a Moscow based Russian non-government Think Tank, who also does research for the Russian government, security services, military and business. Members are for the most part considered conservative by Western sources as opposed to liberal. My take on the article was the writer was complaining the Russian government and military were not putting enough defensive resources in the East. Most Westerns are oblivious to the fact that Putin's main opposition in Russia is not the western style liberals but Communists first followed closely by conservative Russian nationalists.

Russia has way more threats at the Western border than east. They haven't ignored the east since they are building a new navy base in kurils and they are renovating old Soviet airforce bases. But their threat is mostly Japan and US in that area. And they are sufficient.

The whole point of vehicle families is to shorten the logistics train and increase both performance and mobility.

China is not an enemy of Russia and even if they were how much ground could they even grab and hold for any period of time?

The economic and political cost would be enormous... the west would wet their pants seeing two major rivals destroying each other in this way...

And also the comments about MLRS range... range is not unimportant, but you need excellent C4IR to be useful.

When Israel captured Russian/Soviet Grad rockets and decided to make their own copy they modified the design... they didn't increase the range, the modifications they made actually reduced its range... they fitted a heavier more powerful more effective warhead.

No point having a 400km range unguided rocket system unless you have reliable recon assets that can continuously deliver you target information about targets out to that range.

Most of the time I doubt the Americans could manage that... they would start hitting weddings and funerals etc etc.

When supporting a ground force, unless the purpose is to allow your rocket batteries to operate 300km away from the unit they are supporting by hitting enemy forces within 100km of those forces, such a weapon range is a waste of rocket fuel and probably greatly reduces the warhead payload size... a shorter ranged version would have a much bigger much more effective warhead and would probably be more accurate too.

China has satellites, drones & recon planes.
https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/10/article/chinese-drones-are-proving-their-importance/

Stationary targets like rail/shipyards, ports, naval/air bases, plants, etc. can be targeted from afar even w/o the latest intel. about them.
I think their range was increased for more operational flexibility & with NK/Taiwan/India in mind.

Tsavo Lion wrote:China has satellites, drones & recon planes.
https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/10/article/chinese-drones-are-proving-their-importance/

Stationary targets like rail/shipyards, ports, naval/air bases, plants, etc. can be targeted from afar even w/o the latest intel. about them.
I think their range was increased for more operational flexibility & with NK/Taiwan/India in mind.

Key Chinese targets would be hit so damn quickly by Russian systems, they may hit them about same time China hits them because Russia has more mature IADS structure to see within China as well. Since China is so heavily concentrated, the damage back would be severe.

Hence why China plays smart and doesn't actually attack anyone. They could overrun North Korea so darn fast but any retaliation hit would be so devastating, it wouldn't make any invasion even worth it.

miketheterrible wrote:
Hence why China plays smart and doesn't actually attack anyone. They could overrun North Korea so darn fast but any retaliation hit would be so devastating, it wouldn't make any invasion even worth it.

Why would China even consider attacking NK???  

Apart from being a horridly drawn-out and bloody quagmire (even ignoring nukes, NK is very mountainous and the NK army is not only large, but by all accounts, very motivated in its defense of national independence). Invasion of NK would be a propaganda gift to Imperial Trumpistan, and would tend to strengthen the US control over SK.  If China were to fail, the South may end up taking over the wreckage left behind if the NK gov were sufficiently weakened, and the US would then extend defacto control over the peninsula, and present a real destablisation threat to a presumably weakened CCP rule.

NKs value to the PRC is its role as a counter to US influence on Chinas backdoor. No matter NKs antics, China knows that due to US conduct during the Korean civil war (as thats what the war really was) and its endless harassment ever since, Pyongyangs' angst will always be directed against Washington not Beijing. The PRC committed millions of troops to push the US back when Kim il Sung was a Soviet client. Does anyone really think they will now turn aggressor? (well... except for whackjob neocon nut jobz).

Big_Gazza wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:
Hence why China plays smart and doesn't actually attack anyone. They could overrun North Korea so darn fast but any retaliation hit would be so devastating, it wouldn't make any invasion even worth it.

Why would China even consider attacking NK???  

Apart from being a horridly drawn-out and bloody quagmire (even ignoring nukes, NK is very mountainous and the NK army is not only large, but by all accounts, very motivated in its defense of national independence). Invasion of NK would be a propaganda gift to Imperial Trumpistan, and would tend to strengthen the US control over SK.  If China were to fail, the South may end up taking over the wreckage left behind if the NK gov were sufficiently weakened, and the US would then extend defacto control over the peninsula, and present a real destablisation threat to a presumably weakened CCP rule.

NKs value to the PRC is its role as a counter to US influence on Chinas backdoor. No matter NKs antics, China knows that due to US conduct during the Korean civil war (as thats what the war really was) and its endless harassment ever since, Pyongyangs' angst will always be directed against Washington not Beijing. The PRC committed millions of troops to push the US back when Kim il Sung was a Soviet client. Does anyone really think they will now turn aggressor? (well... except for whackjob neocon nut jobz).

I am using an example. Not saying they would or ever think of it. But saying that even if China invaded a small nation like NK, the devastation they can cause back at NK would be way too great. Maybe I didn't make that clear in what I initially said. So I could just throw in any other small nation with Nukes into the mix.

OK, so lets say South Africa in the 70's when they had Nukes. How bout that?

Poland is in greater danger to be invaded by Sweden then Russia is from China.

But saying that even if China invaded a small nation like NK, the devastation they can cause back at NK would be way too great.

a few years ago, to get Taiwan back, they were ready to lose all big cities East of Xian in a nuclear exchange with the US:
https://books.google.com/books?id=GE-hBgAAQBAJ&pg=PA62&lpg=PA62&dq=lose+all+big+cities+East+of+Xian+Taiwan&source=bl&ots=Ag8K30PpuE&sig=ACfU3U0Et4S5A4VfegV7EG4xf19nOSzubw&hl=ru&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjOtdHAx5nlAhWJrZ4KHWHCA0sQ6AEwDHoECAkQAQ

Chairman Mao, during/after his policies killed 50-70M, had no problem sacrificing 100M or more of his people in a nuclear war.
NK can now kill a lot less than that number, but it will cease to exist regardless.

For Russia & China, The Nicaraguan Canal will become what the Suez Canal was to Great Britain.

The reality is that the Chinese will only invade North Korea for the same reason they did it last time... when South Korea and US and international forces were defeating North Korea and US bases were going to be put on the border with China... China wont accept that, they wouldn't then and wont now.

That means the Chinese forces would be fighting side by side with the North Koreans against South Korea and the US and any other country the US suckered into joining in... but I can't see even the UK joining that clusterfuck.

China isn't stupid, they know a major war does enormous damage even to the country that wins, so they will avoid it at all costs, but some times there wont be a choice.

ie Taiwan or Hong Kong declares independence from China and US/UK starts building bases there... "to defend their democracy"... you know... the usual shit.

But I don't think even the current occupant of the WH is that stupid.

The reality is that the Chinese will only invade North Korea for the same reason they did it last time...

China may also invade NK if there's a serious internal trouble.
NK is a buffer state for Russia & China- even if SK kicks out every American soldier, it can mobilize her reserves (more than NK has) & is well armed, while Japan rearms & hosts many US bases.

China has satellites, drones & recon planes.

And how many rockets will they allocate to each target... is it more than the number of incoming threats a TOR battery can handle?

They are going to need a shit load of those rockets then and they are going to be expensive...

China may also invade NK if there's a serious internal trouble.

They certainly might try, but when they invaded Vietnam to teach them a lesson it really didn't go very well for the Chinese... they have some new shiny stuff, but they really have yet to prove themselves.

Not going to suggest they are as bad as Saudi Arabia, but Saudi Arabia has spent an enormous fortune on modern capable western weapons and western and eastern mercenaries to operate them... they probably have the best Pakistani fighter pilots there are... and why wouldn't you... nice new planes... probably a huge pay rate... but as we have seen it doesn't always work out like it does on paper... in theory the Houthis should have been wiped out easily by the combined forces of several countries with new shiny equipment, but those sandal wearing rebels are not doing bad at all.

Sure they are probably getting support and advice at the very least, but they are the ones on the ground trading bullets and bombs and doing the hero stuff people like to think they can do but when push comes to shove... could they?

I have never been fired at... I'd like to think I would be brave for the guys around me, but I don't know that... kinda hope I never find out of course... that is some serious shit that normal people try to avoid normally.

SK doesn't want war... its economy and standard of living comes from commerce and peace... any serious conflict with the north and that all disappears and with the gloves off it can come down to who will put up with poor conditions longer and I would bet the NK could tolerate it longer... they have more experience of not getting the latest apple iphone the day it comes out.