PutZin Fri Jan 23, 2015 11:05 am
flamming_python wrote: PutZin wrote: GarryB wrote: It would be nice to know what you disagree with, regarding speed of construction and estimates for 2020, based on the facts that are now available.
6 in the water by 2020 is good enough... they don't need thousands and they are not stopping production in 2020.
It's not about whether the production is going to stop or not. It's about whether or not the official estimates by the Russian officials were realistic back in 2010/11.
Now that we have entered 2015, we can see that many of those estimates were wrong. Therefore target of 50-70% of what was estimated a few years earlier, is more realistic now. So the engine issue is not relevant here. What's relevant is to see how the Russian officials where hyping up their "production numbers", which won't be met by 2020.
While I do understand that technical problems might occur underway, it's interesting to see how much all procurements are delayed and by how much.
By the way, an additional analysis has been posted on RussiaMil today. It's a good read.
Russia's rearmament program has done quite well over the last 5 years and hit most of its targets. Some it's even achieved ahead of schedule.
Can you please be more specific with the estimates that you are refering to? And what do you think won't be completed by 2020 and on what basis do you believe so?
Can't post links yet. You can read the article on RussiaMil from January 14th, 2015. It's a good summary of where things stand as of now.
You and I both know that Russia wanted way more than 5 or 6 Gorskhovs in 2020. This is not the only project that has been delayed either.
Anything regarding aircraft carriers, destroyers or "cruisers" is not realistic for a very long time; it will take at least another ten or twelve years.
I do not wish to discuss other delayed projects in this threat, but even Grigorovich "light frigate" has been somewhat delayed, mostly due to the fact that Russia rather wanted to build them for India, instead for themselves.
Current aircraft carrier should have been refurbished long time ago, but it still isn't.
Mistral LPDs won't be delivered, unless Marine Le Pen wins French elections in 2017.
So I do agree with the conclusion, which is that Russian Navy will be more focused on local, smaller enemies and "coastal defence" in general - at least for the next ten years.