Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan

Over the years we have taken a lot of Afghans in here in New Zealand... we were not part of the hunt osama group.... our lads and lasses build schools and houses and fixed wells and helped out the locals, but we still looked after the people that helped us.

Lavrov excoriates Kabul, NATO over IS making territorial gains in Afghanistan

NATO’s pullout from Afghanistan began on April 29, and it is supposed to end this fall

MOSCOW, July 2. /TASS/. The Islamic State (IS, outlawed in Russia) terrorist organization is swallowing up territories in Afghanistan amid NATO’s withdrawal from the region and an irresponsible approach by a number of officials in Kabul, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Friday.

"It is important to shine the spotlight on Afghanistan, where IS members are actively concentrating their forces, and they do so, taking advantage of an irredeemably drawn-out process of hammering out real peace negotiations. We are worried about this, because IS is actively acquiring territories - mostly in Northern Afghanistan, right on the borders of countries that are our allies, amid the irresponsible behavior of some officials in Kabul and amid the hasty withdrawal of NATO, who is unable to report the achievement of at least some goals," he said.

Lavrov noted that Russia holds consultations with CSTO member states in order to ensure security in Central Asia amid IS’ ramped-up activities.

"Of course, we seek to persuade political circles about the need to stop dragging out the negotiation process, and that agreements on a transitional government must be achieved," the top diplomat noted. "We are also doing it within the so-called ‘extended troika’ of Russia, China, the US and Pakistan."

NATO’s pullout from Afghanistan began on April 29, and it is supposed to end this fall, based on an agreement between the US and the Taliban.

https://tass.com/defense/1309939

The President of Tajikistan ordered to mobilize 20 thousand reserve servicemen due to the situation on the border with Afghanistan

https://en.topwar.ru/184720-prezident-tadzhikistana-rasporjadilsja-mobilizovat-20-tysjach-voennosluzhaschih-rezerva-iz-za-situacii-na-granice-s-afganistanom.html

George1 wrote:The President of Tajikistan ordered to mobilize 20 thousand reserve servicemen due to the situation on the border with Afghanistan

https://en.topwar.ru/184720-prezident-tadzhikistana-rasporjadilsja-mobilizovat-20-tysjach-voennosluzhaschih-rezerva-iz-za-situacii-na-granice-s-afganistanom.html

More than 1,000 Afghan soldiers flee into Tajikistan as Taliban extends control, Tajik officials say

More than 1,000 Afghan soldiers fled into neighboring Tajikistan early Monday to escape clashes with Taliban insurgents who have mounted an aggressive offensive as NATO forces withdraw, according to Tajik border officials.

Citing a statement from Tajikistan’s border authority, Tajik state-run news agency Khovar said Monday that 1,037 Afghan servicemen crossed the border from Afghanistan’s Badakhshan province “to save the lives of their personnel.”

Tajik President Emomali Rahmon later Monday ordered the mobilization of 20,000 reserve troops to the border, according to a statement on the presidency’s website. Tajik authorities have repeatedly said they will not interfere in internal Afghan matters.

The influx was the third wave of Afghan soldiers to flee into Tajikistan in recent days and the fifth in two weeks, bringing the total to nearly 1,600, according to the BBC.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/07/05/afghan-soldiers-flee-tajikistan-taliban/

I have no idea how this will affect Russia, but I seem to remember a time when Russia and China was not on friendly terms.



China makes its move on Afghanistan: Beijing prepares to fill the vacuum left by Biden's premature military exit from the nation with $62B investment plan for its 'Belt and Road' program

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9755531/China-prepares-Afghanistan-following-Americas-departure-Belt-Road-program.html

Cowboy's daughter wrote:I have no idea how this will affect Russia, but I seem to remember a time when Russia and China was not on friendly terms.



China makes its move on Afghanistan: Beijing prepares to fill the vacuum left by Biden's premature military exit from the nation with $62B investment plan for its 'Belt and Road' program

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9755531/China-prepares-Afghanistan-following-Americas-departure-Belt-Road-program.html

article talks about an economic move not move on with troops

Authorities in Kabul are considering extending a $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

A country with no history of invasion might have a reasonable chance of investment and development and actually repairing the place and giving it a decent future... while making good money themselves of course.

This would be a good thing for Russia too... a developing and stable Afghanistan would be a good thing all round.

PapaDragon wrote:
Sino/Soviet split was over half a century ago, it's ancient history by now

Besides Russia has no interest in Afghanistan and they have two new buffer states between them and A-stan

All real estate is valuable. Some is more valuable than other. Also, sometimes time makes a real estate that wasn't valuable, more valuable.

I just happen to think that "friendships" or "partnerships" between nations are not set in concrete, but that's just me. & I happen to think Afghanistan is valuable, otherwise the Russians wouldn't have gone there in the first place, nor the USA in the second.

but then the Biden Administration and the Democrats!

Afghan troops are filmed laying down arms as US general overseeing NATO exit says he's shocked by how quickly they've surrendered to the Taliban and 1,000 are caught fleeing the country

The Afghan army is collapsing across the country, with videos posted by the Taliban showing troops laying down their US-made weapons and handing over the keys to their Humvee armoured cars
Afghan soldiers who wandered Monday throughout the base that had once seen as many as 100,000 U.S. troops were deeply critical of how the U.S. left Bagram, leaving in the night without telling the Afghan soldiers tasked with patrolling the perimeter.

'In one night, they lost all the goodwill of 20 years by leaving the way they did, in the night, without telling the Afghan soldiers who were outside patrolling the area,' said Afghan soldier Naematullah, who asked that only his one name be used.


The US left Bagram Airfield last week - its fortress in the country for nearly 20 years - by slipping away in the night without telling the base's new Afghan commander who discovered they had gone the next morning

However, General Austin Scott Miller, commander of US and Nato troops in Afghanistan, said he was shocked by how quickly the Afghan National Army had surrendered to the resurgent jihadists
'I don't like leaving friends in need,' he told ABC on Monday. 'We should be concerned. The loss of terrain and the rapidity of that loss of terrain has to be concerning. You look at the security situation, it's not good'
More than a thousand Afghan National Army soldiers fled into Tajikistan from the northern province of Badkhshan following clashes with the resurgent jihadists on Sunday
Tajikistan said that the Afghans were allowed to enter on the principle of 'good neighbourliness' but called up 20,000 reservists to bolster its border guard and prevent further flooding of the frontier  
In the capital of Badakhshan, Faizabad, video emerged which purported to show Afghan officials attempting to flee on a commercial jet as the Taliban surrounded the town of around 30,000 people.

Some civilians are trying to escape by road but many have accepted the return of the Taliban as a fact of life.

'The Taliban have cut off all gates out of the city, and there are checkpoints on all the roads, searching for government officials. Those who can have abandoned the city, by air of course,' one local resident called Abdul told The Times.

'Most districts in Badakhshan are falling without any fighting. Many believe that officials have done a secret deal with the Taliban. People are afraid of what comes next.'

Ahmad Zaman, another Faizabad resident, told the paper: 'The situation is really bad. Everyone is in fear and panic. The Taliban are gaining control without fighting. The insurgents are sending messages to Afghan forces to surrender without fighting.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9760119/20-000-Tajikistan-troops-ordered-border-stop-Afghanistan-soldiers-fleeing-Taliban.html

CHINA’S STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT OF AFGHANISTAN
YUN SUNAPRIL 8, 2020

https://warontherocks.com/2020/04/chinas-strategic-assessment-of-afghanistan/

Vedomosti: Tajikistan mobilizes troops after Afghan forces retreat to its territory
More than 1,000 Afghan troops had retreated on July 4-5 to Tajikistan after clashes with fighters from the Taliban radical movement (outlawed in Russia), Tajikistan’s border service reported on July 5. The right to cross the border was provided to them "in accordance with the principles of good neighborliness and non-interference in Afghanistan’s domestic affairs," yet, Dushanbe is not revealing what will happen to the Afghan servicemen next, Vedomosti reports. The first group of 134 Afghan troops who crossed the border last week was sent back to Afghanistan, the Tajik border service informed.

The Tajik border service assures that the situation in the areas where Afghan troops are located is under their full control. However, President Emomali Rahmon declared the mobilization of 20,000 troops from the country’s armed forces after these reports.

Andrey Kazantsev, a professor with the Higher School of Economics, told Vedomosti that so far, the situation does not pose a direct threat to Dushanbe. "There will be a threat to Tajikistan if the Taliban takes power or if total chaos emerges in Afghanistan.

That being said, the country is not far from a state of total chaos, unfortunately," Kazantsev noted. According to the expert, if the situation in Afghanistan further deteriorates, hundreds or even thousands Islamist fighters will try to cross the border with the aim of destabilizing Tajikistan. There is no threat of a large-scale war, though, and the conflict is likely to be of low intensity, the expert said.
At this point, Russia is bound to hand over its equipment and arms, including cars, to the Tajik army to help Dushanbe mobilize its troops, military expert Viktor Murakhovsky told the paper. There is no direct threat from the Taliban, and only a major invasion will force Russia to adhere to its obligations to Tajikistan, the expert said.

Mobilizing 20,000 troops, considering that the Tajik army has about 12,000 active soldiers, and 20,000 law enforcement and border control officers, is a very difficult task for Tajikistan, a source close to the Russian Defense Ministry said, so material aid from Moscow will be required.

https://tass.com/pressreview/1310871

Cowboy's daughter wrote:Vedomosti: Tajikistan mobilizes troops after Afghan forces retreat to its territory

Mobilizing 20,000 troops, considering that the Tajik army has about 12,000 active soldiers, and 20,000 law enforcement and border control officers, is a very difficult task for Tajikistan, a source close to the Russian Defense Ministry said, so material aid from Moscow will be required.

https://tass.com/pressreview/1310871

Russia ready to use 201st base to maintain order on the Afghan border

Moscow is ready to support Dushanbe and use Russia's 201st military base in Tajikistan to maintain order on the border with Afghanistan, if need be. This was announced to TASS on July 6 by the Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Andrei Rudenko.

Everything will depend on how the situation in northern Afghanistan develops. As we understand it, the situation there is quite tense, since, according to some sources, 70% (Tajik-Afghan - ed.) Of the border is controlled by the Taliban movement (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation) - said Rudenko.

The functionary added that the specified military base is equipped with everything necessary, therefore, he can provide assistance to the Tajik allies at any time when required. Moscow and Dushanbe maintain contacts at the level of border and military departments, and the situation at the border is being monitored with high quality. Therefore, if any additional measures are needed, they will be involved.

According to the information of the Border Troops of the State Committee for National Security of Tajikistan, recently 1,037 Afghan servicemen fled to the country, fleeing from the Taliban.

At the same time, the operational situation in Afghanistan is becoming more and more complicated.... NATO troops quickly leave the territory of this Central Asian country. Soon, Turkish army units will remain the only foreign contingent in Afghanistan. The Turks reported that they did not intend to give Kabul and its airport to the Taliban. At the same time, Turkish troops are also present in Somalia, Syria and Libya. However, this is not enough for Ankara. The Turkish military wants to acquire military bases in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

We remind you that on June 11, the Taliban movement demanded that Ankara withdraw its military from Afghanistan. Taliban spokesman Suheil Shahin said that Turkey, as a NATO member, is obliged to withdraw from Afghan soil on the basis of an agreement between the Taliban and the United States on February 29, 2020.

Turkey is a great Muslim country and Afghanistan has historical ties with it. We hope to have a close and good relationship with her after a new Islamic government is established in our country. - Shahin summed up.

https://topcor-ru.translate.goog/20627-rossija-gotova-zadejstvovat-201-ju-bazu-dlja-podderzhanija-porjadka-na-afganskoj-granice.html?utm_source=warfiles.ru&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB&_x_tr_pto=ajax,se,elem

NOTE: the 201st Russian Military base is basically a light Motor Rifle division of about 7,000 men and includes a mixed helicopter squadron with Mi-24P and Mi-8MTV.

Do Not Forget Afghanistan

As the U.S. departure looms, we must honor our troops’ service and sacrifice—and the Afghan allies who stood by us at a terrible cost.
by WILL SELBER JULY 6, 2021 5:30 AM
As my plane took off, I felt like I was abandoning my friends to a cruel death. Leaving Afghanistan does not feel like a cause for celebration for a job well done but rather an escape before a future calamity we helped create.

I’m not foolish enough to believe that we will re-engage or change our minds. My only request to my fellow Americans is that we do not forget Afghanistan.

That we do not forget the men and women whose names adorn memorials on bases being abandoned across Afghanistan.

That we do not forget my comrades, many of whom bear invisible wounds—and some who could not bear them anymore.

And that we do not forget our allies remaining in Afghanistan. Their war will continue and will be far more bloody and ruthless than anything most of us experienced. Tens of thousands will perish in the coming civil war and even more from the humanitarian disaster sure to follow. While opinions vary on the wisdom of President Biden’s decision to leave Afghanistan, surely we can agree that we must do our best to alleviate the suffering that will come.

Losing a war is hard enough. Compounding this abject feeling is coming home to a country eager to move on after twenty years of bloodshed in a conflict in which less than half of 1 percent of the population served. We must remember that, even if our soldiers are coming home, our responsibilities born of this conflict continue. It’s the least we can do.

Will Selber
Will Selber is a lieutenant colonel in the United States Air Force. The views expressed here are his own and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Air Force or the Department of Defense.

https://thebulwark.com/do-not-forget-afghanistan/?fbclid=IwAR3ZCgtBNJYTH1LO2s6FWKmt5uhH_2Ree_falSPkP3B4ymZD0DxNTjiBhBM



The facts are, imho, that Biden, or whoever is making decisions, just does not care what happens to allies after leaving Afghanistan. If he or they cared, they would have already made provisions for them to leave.


Biden’s Plan for Afghanistan Doesn’t Add Up

We can end America’s longest war, or continue to fight the Taliban. We can’t do both.
BY FRED KAPLAN
JULY 06, 20213:47 PM

As the last American troops leave Afghanistan, ending our 20-year war—the longest in U.S. history—more suddenly and swiftly than anyone had anticipated, a few grave evasions should trouble us all, regardless of our opinions on the decision to pull out.

The first concern is the fate of the many Afghans who served as translators to U.S. troops for all these years and who will almost certainly be arrested or killed if they’re left behind and the Taliban come to power. Pentagon officials say evacuation plans are in the works. But it seems doubtful that the plans are as extensive as they would need to be to rescue all of the deserving and their families, especially since the Taliban have blocked many roads from the provinces to Kabul—and since the country’s largest runway, at Bagram air base, has been shut down and abandoned. But we shall see.

The second ambiguity is that, in April, when President Biden announced the withdrawal of U.S. armed forces, he also reaffirmed a continued U.S. commitment to keep Afghanistan free of terrorist rule—and yet it’s not at all clear how to do both: how to fight the Taliban or any other terrorists without any troops on the ground.
Biden said he would “prevent reemergence of terrorists” in Afghanistan “from over the horizon”—a military term that means just what it sounds like: from far away and from up in the sky. In this case, it means that Taliban and other forces would be monitored by distant sensors and satellites—and, if necessary, fired upon by fighter jets, missiles, or drones launched from U.S. military bases. The closest of these bases, in or around Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, are more than 1,000 miles away.

Two things are known about “over-the-horizon” defense: it’s not very effective (good intelligence and combat are best performed close in, on the ground); and it’s very expensive. It requires tying up more fighter planes, refueling tankers, jet fuel, missiles, and drones at those distant bases; filling them with more personnel (pilots, maintenance crews, intelligence specialists); and possibly keeping an extra aircraft carrier in the region.
The high cost is the most puzzling piece of Biden’s formula. The real, underlying rationale for getting out of Afghanistan is that the place has simply fallen off the list of our top security priorities. Biden said as much in his speech announcing the withdrawal:

We have to shore up American competitiveness to meet the stiff competition we’re facing an increasingly assertive China. We have to strengthen our alliances…defeat this pandemic… We’ll be much more formidable to our adversaries and competitors over the long term if we fight the battles for the next 20 years, not the last 20.

He was right. He was also right in noting that terrorism has many havens these days and that excessive focus on Afghanistan detracts attention from other hot spots. Finally, he was right that everyone has long admitted that military victory in Afghanistan is impossible; that a firm commitment from the Taliban to play nice if they take over would be welcome but isn’t likely; that we’re going to have to get out at some point, so why not now.

But in that same speech, Biden also talked as though the pillars of our commitment—staving off the Taliban and protecting the Kabul regime—remained solid. He said:
If (some would say when) the Taliban move to overthrow the Kabul government, one of two things will happen: Biden will make good on his commitments, in which case the U.S. will be stuck there for years to come, though with less firepower and at greater cost; or he won’t, in which case one of the drawbacks of the U.S. troop-withdrawal—the devaluation of American commitments generally—will be compounded.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/07/biden-withdrawal-afghanistan-terrorism-horizon.html?fbclid=IwAR1wNSPt-FHkuf7kwAbORpG5a1qbW8Yyn_2KQxLk8tz5tc5IF7PvdE5Cj-4

It is a sight to behold. The US does everything to maximize chaos and waste. Look at this base that they just cut and ran from. A billion+ dollar 5000 acre air base.

They could have slowly turned over the management of the base to the Afgan govt and military. Then at least they could use it and it could be an asset to them. But instead they opened it up to looters in the dead of the night. It is just fucking sickening. They do this because they want Afganistan to be a chaotic hell hole. Its part of the weird way that they think they control the world.

The Taliban should just take the base. At least order will be restored. The Afgan govt should start negotiations with the Taliban. Find a way to merge and make a country out of it again.

Backman wrote:It is a sight to behold. The US does everything to maximize chaos and waste. Look at this base that they just cut and ran from. A billion+ dollar 5000 acre air base.

They could have slowly turned over the management of the base to the Afgan govt and military. Then at least they could use it and it could be an asset to them. But instead they opened it up to looters in the dead of the night. It is just fucking sickening. They do this because they want Afganistan to be a chaotic hell hole. Its part of the weird way that they think they control the world.

The Taliban should just take the base. At least order will be restored. The Afgan govt should start negotiations with the Taliban. Find a way to merge and make a country out of it again.

I don't know what to think.

I think: "Surely the United States Government can't be that ignorant.", but the whole withdrawal, it seems like the execution of withdrawal was not planned well, nor well in advance.

From what I've read, maybe 20,000 Afghanistan citizens who worked for US, have gotten out, but many left behind, & some in hiding, some who surrendered killed by Taliban. It surely seems like the Country is a train wreck in the process.

I just happen to think that "friendships" or "partnerships" between nations are not set in concrete, but that's just me. & I happen to think Afghanistan is valuable, otherwise the Russians wouldn't have gone there in the first place, nor the USA in the second.

The Soviet invasion in the late 1970s was to head off the US sending the CIA and other agencies into Afghanistan after they were kicked out of Iran.

The story that the Soviets were invading Afghanistan because they wanted a warm water port is just bullshit... if that were true they would have to invade Pakistan too and they didn't except when chasing Afghans fleeing across the border to safety.

The really sad irony is that the so called Soviet occupation did a lot of good... a lot of their apartments that they built are still prized because the air conditioning still works.... they built roads and power stations and all sorts of infrastructure that US money was used to destroy and kill.

They made a lot of progress in terms of womens rights too, but that was all washed away when the Soviets realised the west would continue to fund the opposition for as long as Soviet troops were there so they left.

Western troops didn't have to face well armed and well equipped enemies supported by a superpower and they still lost but that was because they didn't give a shit about the locals.... they were not there to help.... they didn't even know what they were there for.

The ceasefire with the Taleban reduced US casualties and of course staying inside a few cities reduced casualties too, but it would not take much outside support to really make the US and HATO bleed.

Afghanistan is a place of real mountains... most of the ground is near vertical and even when it is flat the altitude makes it feel like hard work just breathing... the Taleban just need an outside source of MANPADS and anti armour missiles and any modern enemy is stuffed because without ground vehicles and without helicopters you simply cannot move around... and you need to move to supply and support.

The US should have declared victory when Osama was murdered and left then... that was the goal.

Goals like defeating terrorism or defeating the Taleban or ISIS or the war on drugs are just bullshit unending wars that fund the MIC and the 1% and are totally pointless propaganda to squeeze every last penny out of the US taxpayer.

Trump, Biden... it is not party political... getting US troops out is the smartest thing any president has done and **** Obamas peace prize... Trump should get that for forcing Biden to get US troops out of there because when they leave everyone else will go too because none of the others can do it on their own.

Everything the US and HATO created there will be taken/captured and a few people are going to die, but they wont kill everyone, and there is still ISIS for them to fight too... most of which are foreign.

The west claimed when the Soviets left Afghanistan in the 80s that the government would collapse overnight... but ironically it was the western support and interest that collapsed overnight so the government continued till about 1992 or so... but they held most of the territory when the Soviets left in the late 80s, but now they barely hold the cities...

People worry, but they need to sort things out for themselves... and they will.

Apparently the scorecard as of this morning was:

- Taliban controls 188 out of 407 districts
- Government controls 84
- Contested districts 135

franco wrote:Apparently the scorecard as of this morning was:

- Taliban controls 188 out of 407 districts
- Government controls 84
- Contested districts 135

I stumbled across this site this morning.



Afghanistan at risk of collapse as Taliban storms the north
BY BILL ROGGIO | July 5, 2021 | admin@longwarjournal.org | @billroggio

Put simply: The Afghan government controls only a little more than 20 percent of the country at the moment.

Afghan Districts As of May 1, 2021 As of July 5, 2021
Taliban Controlled 73 195
Contested 210 129
Gov’t Controlled 115 75
Data compiled by FDD’s Long War Journal


https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2021/07/afghanistan-at-risk-of-collapse-as-taliban-storms-the-north.php



I was reading this article, which as bad as it is, still doesn't tell the entire story.


Opinion | Biden Is Already Fumbling the Afghanistan Withdrawal
President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw a residual U.S. force could look like an amateurish, unforced error if an expected Taliban resurgence materializes.



https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/07/opinion-biden-afghan-withdrawal-498702

Analysis: Predicting the coming Taliban offensive
BY BILL ROGGIO | May 25, 2021 | admin@longwarjournal.org | @billroggio

Taliban are Everywhere

The Afghan government is in a major bind, as the Taliban’s power base is no longer confined to the south and the east, as it largely was in the early to mid-2000s. With the help of al Qaeda, the Taliban has included into its ranks several Uzbek and Tajik jihadist groups, such as the former Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Islamic Jihad Union, Kaitbat Imam Bukhari, and Jamaat Ansarullah. This has helped the group make major inroads into provinces such as Badakhshan. This should have set off alarm bells within the U.S. military and intelligence community years ago.

Once the headquarters of the Northern Alliance in its fight against the Taliban prior to 9/11, Badakhshan is now a Taliban bastion. Afghan officials say that 22 of Badakhshan’s 27 districts are under threat from the Taliban and its al Qaeda-affiliated allies. In short, this means the Taliban now contests 22 of those 27 districts. Fifteen years ago, it was unthinkable that Badakhshan could become one of the most insecure provinces in the country.

The Taliban has also made major inroads into northern provinces that were peaceful in the mid-2000s, such as Sar-i-Pul, Faryab, Jawzjan, Balkh, Samangan, Baghlan, Kunduz and Takhar. They are all under Taliban pressure. Many of the provincial capitals of the aforementioned provinces are under direct Taliban threat. Outside of the provincial capitals, the Afghan government has maintained nominal control of Kunar and Nuristan over the past two decades.

The same is true for the western provinces. The Taliban has made major gains in Badghis, Herat, Farah, and Nimruz. (The Taliban overran Farah City for a short period of time in May 2018.)

The situation is particularly grim in southern and eastern Afghanistan. Helmand, Kandahar, and Uruzgan are major Taliban strongholds, as are Ghazni, Zabul, Paktia, Paktika, Khost, and Nangarhar. In eastern Afghanistan, Wardak and Logar, the gateway to Kabul, are highly contested, as are Laghman and Kapisa.

The Taliban has had more difficulty in gaining traction in the central provinces of Kabul, Ghor, Daykundi, Baymian, and Parwan, but even in these provinces, the Taliban has overrun individual districts or launched major attacks at different times. The Taliban routinely launches attacks and assassinations in the capital of Kabul City.

ANDSF must Consolidate Lines, Secure Power Bases

A review of the security situation shows that the Afghan government and its defense forces are in a difficult position. The Taliban has made significant gains over the past several years, even as the U.S. military was supporting ANDSF operations. Today, 17 of Afghanistan’s 34 provincial capitals are under direct Taliban threat.



Afghan commandos, the highly capable forces trained by the U.S., are stretched thin and forced to take on roles they are not trained for, such as providing static security in district centers. Despite the commandos’ solid training and advanced weapons, the Taliban has often prevailed against them in multiple fights.

This has led to a decline in the morale and commitment of Afghan soldiers and policemen. Afghan security personnel routinely abandon their bases or surrender to the Taliban rather than risk being killed while defending their positions. Continued successive losses, particularly without U.S. air power and special operations forces to save the ANDSF, may lead to wholesale defections, or the dissolution of entire military units. Some units may abandon the ANDSF and integrate with warlords in order to defend their home territory. Other units may defect to the Taliban en masse.


https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2021/05/analysis-predicting-the-coming-taliban-offensive.php

Senior Taliban official: “We care about the oppression of Muslims, be it in Palestine, in Myanmar, or in China, & we care about the oppression of non-Muslims anywhere in the world. But what we are not going to do is interfere in China’s internal affairs.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/afghanistans-taliban-now-on-chinas-border-seek-to-reassure-beijing-11625750130

Pretty good reflection of Pakistan's hold/influence over the Taliban. Which is where India's challenges would also be.

Afghanistan: Taliban has Now Captured areas which Border 5 countries -
》Ghaghci in Kunar with Pakistan
》Wakhan in Badaskshan with China
》The Shirkhan Bandar crossing in Kunduz with Tajikistan
》Moaqor Dist in Badghis with Turkemanistan
》Qila Islam in Herat with Iran

Last Updated: 8th July, 2021 16:57 IST
Afghanistan Forces Regain Control Of Qala-e-naw City, Taliban Ousted

Afghanistan forces defeat Taliban and regain control of Qale-e-naw city by killing over 600 Talibani terrorists in multiple airstrikes across the region.

https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/rest-of-the-world-news/afghanistan-forces-regain-control-of-qala-e-naw-city-taliban-ousted.html


Afghans Will No Longer Choose Their Own Government

Biden’s explanation for the U.S. withdrawal rests on a false premise.
Nonetheless, Biden’s argument is dishonest. Consider the testy exchange he had with a journalist after his prepared remarks. When asked whether the U.S. would be somewhat responsible for Afghan deaths going forward, Biden said, “No, it’s up to the people of Afghanistan to decide the government they want, not us to impose the government on them.”

That line is pithy, but it does not reflect what happened after the U.S. invasion in 2001. The constitutional system that exists today in Afghanistan was agreed through a national dialogue. And this system has afforded the Afghan people an elected central government (however corrupt and inefficient). It’s the Taliban that now seeks to impose a clerical state, which will not be subject to popular vote. The Taliban have consistently rejected elections, going so far as to attack voters and polling stations. More recently, they have rejected offers from Kabul for a cease-fire or to join national talks for reconciliation.

The struggle between Afghanistan’s government and the Taliban is not a choice between democracy and Islamic rule. It is a conflict over whether Afghans should choose their own government at all. So Biden’s justification for America’s retreat from the country is just not true.

He also said that the mission of the war was to bring justice to Osama bin Laden and to prevent Afghanistan from again becoming a safe haven for terrorism. This sells the U.S. military short. American soldiers who sacrificed in the Afghanistan war were fighting for the self-determination of the Afghan people.

This is a core tenet of American foreign policy at its best. The U.S. fights wars to advance not only its interests, but also its values. It is one thing that makes America exceptional.
For now, Biden is unwilling to completely write off the government in Kabul. The U.S. will continue to provide robust humanitarian aid and security assistance after American forces leave at the end of August, he said.

(I GUESS THIS MEANS TO MILITIAS AND WAR LORDS FIGHTING THE TALIBAN, BECAUSE I EXPECT THE GOVERNMENT TO FALL.)

That’s better than nothing, but not nearly enough. Ever since April, when Biden announced his withdrawal plan, the Taliban has been on the march and, in just two months, has been able to seize 150 of Afghanistan’s 421 districts. If this trend continues, the Taliban will soon impose its own regime, one that negates the people’s right to decide their government.

(i THINK NOW TALIBAN CONTROLS ALL BUT ABOUT 100 DISTRICTS.)

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-07-08/afghans-will-no-longer-choose-their-own-government?srnd=premium

As the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan nears its completion, the Afghan army is quickly losing ground throughout the country to the Taliban. To bolster its military, the government is arming militias to help in the fight. Special correspondent Jane Ferguson traveled to two provinces near the capital — Parwan and Logar — to meet militia men who have Afghan leaders worried about a new civil war.

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Judy Woodruff:

As the American troop withdrawal from Afghanistan is all but complete, the Afghan army is quickly losing ground throughout the country to the Taliban.

Now, to bolster its flagging military, the government is arming militias to help in the fight.

Special correspondent Jane Ferguson traveled to two provinces near the Capitol, Parwan and Logar, to meet militiamen who have some Afghan leaders worried about a new civil war.

Jane Ferguson:

On Afghanistan's front lines, militia commanders now direct battles alongside government forces.

From this abandoned house in the Ghorband Valley of Parwan province, local volunteer forces fight to hold off the Taliban. We are only a couple of hours' drive north of the capital, Kabul. Both the Afghan army and these men, are trying to halt the group's advances in that direction.

As soon as President Biden announced America's unconditional drawdown from Afghanistan in April, the Taliban began a massive offensive, taking territory across the country, as the Afghan army buckled. With major cities in danger of falling, fighters like these were rallied to join the battle.

Abdul Zahir Salangi (through translator):

We thought it would be a long-term partnership under the United States leadership, and it would last until terrorism was rooted out, not only from Afghanistan but the region.

Unfortunately, the bad decision that Mr. Biden and his supporters made has led to a situation where thousands of Afghans are dying. This is all because of the failure of President Biden and the American politicians.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/afghan-militias-forced-to-fight-taliban-blame-americas-abandonment