Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan

Airbornewolf wrote:@ george1,

there is simply no solution to Afghanistan.
the opertunities we have had. we burned a long time ago.

The afghan culture itself makes it impossible.
they see eachother as constant competitors in their tribal system.

i really would have given you an good answer, but i do not know what the answer is to fix Afghanistan.

Cowboy's daughter wrote:

I read the same this morning on twitter.

FrontalforceFlag of India@FrontalForce·
3h
Reports: After overrunning many areas in Afghanistan, 1000s of Taliban have entered North Waziristan in Pakistan & established their rule over there by asking Women to not leave their homes. Pak forces have already gone in hiding.


FrontalforceFlag of India@FrontalForce·
Thousands of Pak terrorists from Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and other groups are currently fighting alongside the Taliban in Afghanistan in a clear violation of the 2020 peace deal signed by the Taliban and the US, according to reports from security agencies.
12:05 AM · Jul 12, 202

Sujoy wrote:
Most (not all) Taliban fighters are from the Pashtun/Pathan tribe. Pakistan's Pashtun dominated North Western Frontier Province (NWFP) was added to Pakistan by the British. However, it was decided that after 100 years the province will be shifted back to Afghanistan.

This is what Pakistan plans to prevent at all cost. Therefore, Pakistani jihadi groups that are mostly comprised of Punjabi Sunni Muslims are being sent to Afghanistan to fight against the Afghan government.

flamming_python wrote: Indeed Pashtunization of the Taliban is what Pakistan fears the most

So the new Taliban suits it more

flamming_python wrote:What doesn't suit it are Turkey's attempts to gain influence in the Uzbek north and stay in the country; as that could force the Taliban into Pashtunization

Sujoy wrote:Sergei Lavrov warns Taliban against grabbing power.  

https://tass.com/politics/1293139

Sujoy wrote:

flamming_python wrote: Indeed Pashtunization of the Taliban is what Pakistan fears the most

So the new Taliban suits it more

Already, the Prime Minister of Pakistan is a Pashtun. Not much popular with his Pashtun brethen because they see him as a puppet of the Punjabis. But Imran Khan has the backing of the West.

In any case the Army calls the shots in Pakistan. And Punjabi Sunnis dominate the Army leadership.

Local media here in India is reporting that Afghan Government is asking for air support from Russia & India to stop the Taliban on their tracks.

flamming_python wrote:What doesn't suit it are Turkey's attempts to gain influence in the Uzbek north and stay in the country; as that could force the Taliban into Pashtunization

Pakistan is trying to get the Turks involved in Uzbekistan knowing fully well that Uzbekistan is a Russian ally. Therefore, Pakistan recons they can keep Russia out of Afghanistan by collaborating with Uzbeks.

Cowboy's daughter wrote:Pakistan may bite off more than it can chew.

flamming_python wrote:

Uzbekistan certainly does want to build a pipeline and transport corridor through Afghanistan and Pakistan to the Indian Ocean, but it had already turned to Moscow in fulfilling this objective. Why in general would Uzbekistan want the Turks? It already started turning away from NATO and the US when Afghanistan was still under their control.

Russia is investing into a pipeline project in Pakistan of its own; albeit it will mostly not be its own gas. So there isn't a serious conflict of interest between Russia and Uzbekistan here, and on the contrary, it's in Pakistan's interest to co-operate with both of them.

The Taliban are telling the Turks to buzz off and this ain't by accident.

What's really happening is that the US is defering to Turkey the mission of keeping NATO influence in Afghanistan, as a foothold in Central Asia. To do that Turkey will need to rebuild the Northern Alliance, or at least the Uzbek part. This will make Uzbekistan dependent on Turkish/NATO good-will too, for its pipeline/transport links that will have to pass through that part of Afghanistan.
But doing that means robbing the Taliban of total victory and I don't see what's in it for Uzbekistan either, if it is already pursuing a course of closer integration with Russia in general.

flamming_python wrote:As for India, Russia can to some extent assure its interests there through its own influence and that of the Tajiks.

Sujoy wrote:

Cowboy's daughter wrote:Pakistan may bite off more than it can chew.

Actually they are achieving this quite effectively for the last 40 years.

flamming_python wrote:

Uzbekistan certainly does want to build a pipeline and transport corridor through Afghanistan and Pakistan to the Indian Ocean, but it had already turned to Moscow in fulfilling this objective. Why in general would Uzbekistan want the Turks? It already started turning away from NATO and the US when Afghanistan was still under their control.

Russia is investing into a pipeline project in Pakistan of its own; albeit it will mostly not be its own gas. So there isn't a serious conflict of interest between Russia and Uzbekistan here, and on the contrary, it's in Pakistan's interest to co-operate with both of them.

The Taliban are telling the Turks to buzz off and this ain't by accident.

What's really happening is that the US is defering to Turkey the mission of keeping NATO influence in Afghanistan, as a foothold in Central Asia. To do that Turkey will need to rebuild the Northern Alliance, or at least the Uzbek part. This will make Uzbekistan dependent on Turkish/NATO good-will too, for its pipeline/transport links that will have to pass through that part of Afghanistan.
But doing that means robbing the Taliban of total victory and I don't see what's in it for Uzbekistan either, if it is already pursuing a course of closer integration with Russia in general.

Pakistan wants Turkey to have a presence in Afghanistan. But Russia & China doesn't want that. China doesn't want Russia or India to be present in Afghanistan either.

China will send in its special ops troops to Afghanistan but will fall short of a major military deployment. That's why China needs Pakistan. Long story short, with NATO's departure, Pakistan and China will call the shots in Afghanistan.

flamming_python wrote:As for India, Russia can to some extent assure its interests there through its own influence and that of the Tajiks.

Russia is asking India to accept the new normal and accept the Taliban.

https://theprint.in/diplomacy/taliban-like-hezbollah-not-isis-says-russia-urges-india-to-engage-with-it-for-afghan-peace/696058/

Cowboy's daughter wrote:So you are saying that  Pakistan reckons they can keep Russia out of Afghanistan by collaborating with Uzbeks???   & Pakistan and China will control Afghanistan, and all Russia can do is protect it's borders???

Cowboy's daughter wrote:

Sujoy wrote:

Cowboy's daughter wrote:Pakistan may bite off more than it can chew.

Actually they are achieving this quite effectively for the last 40 years.

flamming_python wrote:

Uzbekistan certainly does want to build a pipeline and transport corridor through Afghanistan and Pakistan to the Indian Ocean, but it had already turned to Moscow in fulfilling this objective. Why in general would Uzbekistan want the Turks? It already started turning away from NATO and the US when Afghanistan was still under their control.

Russia is investing into a pipeline project in Pakistan of its own; albeit it will mostly not be its own gas. So there isn't a serious conflict of interest between Russia and Uzbekistan here, and on the contrary, it's in Pakistan's interest to co-operate with both of them.

The Taliban are telling the Turks to buzz off and this ain't by accident.

What's really happening is that the US is defering to Turkey the mission of keeping NATO influence in Afghanistan, as a foothold in Central Asia. To do that Turkey will need to rebuild the Northern Alliance, or at least the Uzbek part. This will make Uzbekistan dependent on Turkish/NATO good-will too, for its pipeline/transport links that will have to pass through that part of Afghanistan.
But doing that means robbing the Taliban of total victory and I don't see what's in it for Uzbekistan either, if it is already pursuing a course of closer integration with Russia in general.

Pakistan wants Turkey to have a presence in Afghanistan. But Russia & China doesn't want that. China doesn't want Russia or India to be present in Afghanistan either.

China will send in its special ops troops to Afghanistan but will fall short of a major military deployment. That's why China needs Pakistan. Long story short, with NATO's departure, Pakistan and China will call the shots in Afghanistan.

flamming_python wrote:As for India, Russia can to some extent assure its interests there through its own influence and that of the Tajiks.

Russia is asking India to accept the new normal and accept the Taliban.

https://theprint.in/diplomacy/taliban-like-hezbollah-not-isis-says-russia-urges-india-to-engage-with-it-for-afghan-peace/696058/

So you are saying that  Pakistan reckons they can keep Russia out of Afghanistan by collaborating with Uzbeks???   & Pakistan and China will control Afghanistan, and all Russia can do is protect it's borders???

medo wrote:Taliban delegations went to Russia and Iran and they have deal with China. They all have common interests there. One is to throw US and NATO out of central Asia, Taliban to bring peace and stability in Afghanistan, majority of Afghanistanis support Talibans through the war and are not fighting fo pro-US regime in Kabul. Russia, China and Iran try to bring Talibans to agreements with other ethnicities in Afghanistan, to form a stable Afghanistan. Would they succede? They could as Talibans have great interest to be included in Chinese and also Russian project of silk roads, and one of them will go from China through Afghanistan to Iran and further through Iraq to Syria and Meditteranean sea. This road mean for Afghanistan trade, investments and money. Talibans are now looking for Afghanistan after war. On the other side Talibans will destroy Al Qaida in all its forms and names and ISIS in Afghanistan, which US brought from Iraq and Syria to fight against Talibans.

flamming_python wrote:Russia's main interests in Afghanistan is to avoid that place being used as either a bridgehead against it (hence insisting on Turkey leaving, and supporting the Taliban in this demand), or as a base for training Islamist terrorists (hence the negotiations with the Taliban themselves)

flamming_python wrote:What is India's interest in Afghanistan? Pretty much the same. If that place is not used to prepare and train terrorists for use against India, then why would India object?