The Situation in the Ukraine. #24

Khepesh wrote:^ Too many of the eyewitness reports have rather colorful language to describe events, and to relate what is said will perhaps make the reports less believable, particulary to an Anglophone audience were descriptions of "The sky going dark" and "Earth flying ten meters into the air" or "The ground shaking like giants stamping" etc etc, are seen as a little too melodramatic, even if true.

By all means, if you and other Russian speakers have the time and patience to translate eyewitness accounts, or just link to them, I can always try google trans, please do!

what can be more believable than the words of people that are in the thick of it? It would give me something to write about and would be appreciated by my Spanish audience.

And we are using english as a lingua franca for europeans, most of the people in the US and UK are beyond redemption and don't want to accept the truth. It is unlikely there will be ever again an antiwar movement in the US like in the 1960s during Vietnam war.

Also official news blackout and nobody should be saying anything. Much of official reports are lies, but sometimes truth inadvertantly escapes,

I am relieved to hear that because the dissonance was driving me crazy. During the "active phase" the reports were quite truthful and accurate, and as it turned out the novorussians were telling the truth, they even underestimated ukros casualties. so there is censorship in order to keep the Minsk II charade, thank you very much

JohninMK wrote:

Khepesh wrote:

Basurin has announced that the water filtration for Donetsk has been taken out by ukrops bombardments. This effects all Donetsk and surrounding areas, including those occupied by ukrops, such as Avdeevka and Krasnogorovka. Ukrops will probably now scream that "their" water has been cut by VSN in order to hide what is a war crime in denying water to civilians. For a while the issue of the water being cut to Donetsk has been discussed as possible red line.

We now need Moscow's PR machine to move into top gear and accuse, at the top of its voice, Kiev of attacking civilians by deliberately cutting Donetsk's water supply.

Not just an almost silent and ignorable bleat out of Basurin.

If this happens we will know Moscow has been waiting for something like this to happen. Watch Sputnik. If not, its back to frustrating normal folks.

Why is Moscow so fecking passive (and I'm afraid a chicken too)? They have all the military power to simply destroy the junta but they refuse to do it. Instead they let the junta terrorize the Donbass civilians for years, and instead use their military power to help Alawites in Syria.

It boggles my mind.

franco wrote:America does not expect Ukraine to implement Minsk II until there is a permanent ceasefire and they have control of their National borders.

 https://dninews.com/article/american-ambassador-allowed-ukraine-not-comply-minsk-agreements

EDIT: permanent ceasefire seems to equate to the NAF stops fighting back.

That is Yankeestani selective interpretation of the agreement. Russia should use the same tricks. The
legal reform on federalization does not require a full cessation of the conflict. In fact, it is one of the measures
of good will that is supposed to facilitate cessation of the conflict. So this lying Yankee fuck can go and
screw himself.

franco wrote:

JohninMK wrote:

Khepesh wrote:

Basurin has announced that the water filtration for Donetsk has been taken out by ukrops bombardments. This effects all Donetsk and surrounding areas, including those occupied by ukrops, such as Avdeevka and Krasnogorovka. Ukrops will probably now scream that "their" water has been cut by VSN in order to hide what is a war crime in denying water to civilians. For a while the issue of the water being cut to Donetsk has been discussed as possible red line.

We now need Moscow's PR machine to move into top gear and accuse, at the top of its voice, Kiev of attacking civilians by deliberately cutting Donetsk's water supply.

Not just an almost silent and ignorable bleat out of Basurin.

If this happens we will know Moscow has been waiting for something like this to happen. Watch Sputnik. If not, its back to frustrating normal folks.

Most of the West doesn't care I'm sorry to say. And the 9,000 dead civilians were all poor Ukrainians murdered by the evil Russians or their Rebels. It's just like sanctions, they will never go away until Russian is under Western control and broken up into small parts.

The sanctions are a godsend to Russia. NATzO has shot itself in the foot with these sanctions and made Russia stronger and
more independent. It is incredible how the NATzO elites got high on their own propaganda about Russia being nothing more
than a one-commodity banana republic and decided that they could bring it to heel with sanctions. Sanctions would only have
worked if Russia needed to import essential products and services and could not provide them itself.

Russia never stopped being a superpower. Being a superpower is about being willing to tell packs of scum like NATzO to go
and shove itself where the sun don't shine. Russia can do this and NATzO can do fuck all about it. Let them go and try to
start WWIII over eastern Ukraine. Don't make me laugh.

BTW, the "paper tiger" remark by Mao Zedong needs the correct interpretation. It was not some stupid comment about the
west being totally powerless, it was about not letting them instill fear to act. NATzO is indeed a paper tiger that through
propaganda is being converted into some unstoppable cosmic force. It ain't no such thing and can be stopped. Syria is
a clear example.

Today's war in Syria is fought on Russia's terms - change the terms and the outcome changes as well.

Today's war in Syria is fought on Russia's terms - change the terms and the outcome changes as well.

Todays war in Syria is only being fought on Russias terms because Russia imposed its terms by sending forces there. Before that it was being fought on western terms with Turkey and Saudi Arabia and the US providing weapons to some factions and illegally trading oil with other factions to make a lot of money out of the situation.

It was never in Turkeys interests to have Russian aircraft bombing their cheap supply of stolen oil, and the US was happy with the slowly collapsing Assad government.

Your suggestion that the current terms in Syria could be changed by the US or NATO or Saudi arabia or Turkey is amusing because if they could they would have already and you also assume Russia would not adapt to reimpose its will on the situation.

This relates to the Ukraine situation in a different way... Russia cannot just use military force to impose its will, simply because not all Ukrainians are pro Russian... many are just anti Kiev, and would not welcome Russian forces into the country.

Besides the risk of escalation and WWIII is too high for something that is certainly no great prize, and would be a burden for the next half century.... let the EU rebuild that country... it is not Russias problem.

GarryB wrote:

This relates to the Ukraine situation in a different way... Russia cannot just use military force to impose its will, simply because not all Ukrainians are pro Russian... many are just anti Kiev, and would not welcome Russian forces into the country.

Besides the risk of escalation and WWIII is too high for something that is certainly no great prize, and would be a burden for the next half century.... let the EU rebuild that country... it is not Russias problem.

On the right bank and in Galicia and Transcarpathia Russian troops will not be universally wellcomed, but some will. On the left bank more will wellcome than hurl stones.

To say it is not Russias problem is dangerous as it formalises the treason of 1991 and actions of Krushchev and Lenin in earlier years, actions which in the case of Lenin were to "divide and conquer", but not intended to divide the old empire into nation states that have no valid existance. To allow the actions of Lenin and the treason of 1991 to stand in Ukraine further opens the door to enemies who want to dismember Russia. To say that, for instance, Odessa is not Russia and let them rot and US/EU pay for them, gives in to the argument that Rostov, Krasnodar and North Caucasus should not be Russia. This is acute for Rostov and Krasnodar, which were founded at the same time as Odessa, and if Odessa is said not to be Russian, then what of Rostov and Krasnodar. Then there is the issue of people. How can at least those on left bank be said not to be Russian, for if this is so then many in Krasnodar are not Russian, as Kuban Cossacks were primarily formed from Zaporozhian Host, and it was Cossacks who intially populated Krasnodar and form the core of the modern population, as in Rostov. Russia extends to the Dnepr, including Kiev, and on the coast to Odessa, and is not for the Americans or EU.

My arguments in this thread that cause some to get irate are primarily that in Ukraine not enough is done fast enough, but that is personal opinion, tho I do not doubt that the situation will be eventually resolved that to a greater extent old borders are restored.

Karl Haushofer wrote:
Why is Moscow so fecking passive (and I'm afraid a chicken too)? They have all the military power to simply destroy the junta but they refuse to do it. Instead they let the junta terrorize the Donbass civilians for years, and instead use their military power to help Alawites in Syria.

It boggles my mind.

I just thought of an example to get you and others like you to understand an important point:

Garry can ban you and others like you, but he doesn't.

Why?

Maybe he is trying to improve his already impressive writing skills by replying to the posts that you and others like you write.

Does this make sense to you and others like you? After all, his writing skills doesn't seem to require improvement.

http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/how-russias-coming-economic-recovery-and-government-crisis-ukraine-threaten-expose

Nice article on Banderastan and its failure to implement Minsk II.

Khepesh wrote:[............................ To say that, for instance, Odessa is not Russia and let them rot and US/EU pay for them, gives in to the argument that Rostov, Krasnodar and North Caucasus should not be Russia. This is acute for Rostov and Krasnodar, which were founded at the same time as Odessa, and if Odessa is said not to be Russian, then what of Rostov and Krasnodar. Then there is the issue of people. How can at least those on left bank be said not to be Russian, for if this is so then many in Krasnodar are not Russian, as Kuban Cossacks were primarily formed from Zaporozhian Host, and it was Cossacks who intially populated Krasnodar and form the core of the modern population, as in Rostov. Russia extends to the Dnepr, including Kiev, and on the coast to Odessa, and is not for the Americans or EU.

My arguments in this thread that cause some to get irate are primarily that in Ukraine not enough is done fast enough, but that is personal opinion, tho I do not doubt that the situation will be eventually resolved that to a greater extent old borders are restored.

1) That would be one pretty lame argument. Rostov, Krasnodar and North Caucasus are in Russia. Odessa is in Ukraine. Hopefully not for too long but at the moment it is in Ukraine.

2) If those on the left bank are Russians then they should start acting like Russians. I will give you example from my neighborhood: Serbs stuck in Bosnia are also on the left bank but they behave like Serbs not like Bosnians and they do it in spite of being literally held at gunpoint by NATO & EU goon squad.

kvs wrote:http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/how-russias-coming-economic-recovery-and-government-crisis-ukraine-threaten-expose

Nice article on Banderastan and its failure to implement Minsk II.

Agree with the article. But not only economical growth in defeating sanctions, but also military victory in Syria and Iraq, with destroying terrorist there and return of refugees back home to Syria and Iraq will be also very big political defeat for EU and economical as well as ME will then go in Russian economical sphere of influence with renovation and investments in Syria, Iraq and Iran and maybe even Egypt.

PapaDragon wrote:

1) That would be one pretty lame argument. Rostov, Krasnodar and North Caucasus are in Russia. Odessa is in Ukraine. Hopefully not for too long but at the moment it is in Ukraine.  

2) If those on the left bank are Russians then they should start acting like Russians. I will give you example from my neighborhood: Serbs stuck in Bosnia are also on the left bank but they behave like Serbs not like Bosnians and they do it in spite of being literally held at gunpoint by NATO & EU goon squad.    

Re-written reply

As Rostov and Krasnodar are among several regions of Russia that are claimed by Kiev, and their removal from Russia is desired by Washington, then their fate is relevant. To agree that Odessa is part of the synthetic country called "Ukraine" is to legitimize it and accept that the treason of 1991 is valid. From 1991 until 2014 the official line, the only line, from Kremlin is that Russia has no claim on any territory of "Ukraine". This of course meant that anybody saying that Crimea was Russia were "heretics". Yet now the "heretics" are the orthodox. The official line from Kremlin now is that "Ukraine" is to be a stable unified country, yet there is Donbass, so the official position is rather odd and clearly only for consumption by the West. I wonder how long before those of us who are still "heretics" because of Novorossiya will become orthodox.

I will be blunt, I have never changed my position, for years I wrote that Crimea was Russia and I continue to write that Novorossiya is Russia, no matter what Kremlin says, as position of Kremlin is fluid, as we have seen since 2014. Politicians do what they do, Lavrov does his job, and very well, but there is a gap between what the public sees and reality. I prefer to remain constant and let others change around me as the wind from Kremlin changes. Also, if I think that a miscalculation has been made, then I will say so, and I believe a miscalculation was made in not entering "Ukraine" in early 2014 and that many lives could have been saved by early intervention.

You complain about the people in the territories still occupied by Kiev for not rising up, yet ignore that when many saw the columns driving thro Rostov to the border, and trucks appear with the "MC" peacekeeper sign, they thought that Russian intervention was imminent. Why would they risk life if they thought Russian intervention forces will soon be rolling thro Kharkov and other cities? You ignore that SBU was extremely vigorous in their operations, far more vigorous than anybody expected, and many who could have led rebellions dissapeared into the basement. In another post you said that in Russia in 2014 nobody gave a fuck, which ignores the crowds in Rostov and other places cheering the military columns moving to the border. What were they cheering about? what did they think was to happen? You ignore the very rapid rise of "civilian voentorg" and many volunteers, organised as the Cossacks or simply individuals, flocking to Donbass. This is all hardly "not giving a fuck".

They won't be liking Putin's Syria announcement, whatever it actually means, in Kiev. Some will no doubt be thinking that they missed the opportunity of attacking east when Moscow was primarily thinking about Syria.

Or, and this is be a crazy off the wall idea, Moscow knew Kiev were serious about striking and put this out to try to deflect or even hasten it.

Khepesh wrote:.................In another post you said that in Russia in 2014 nobody gave a fuck, which ignores the crowds in Rostov and other places cheering the military columns moving to the border. What were they cheering about? what did they think was to happen? You ignore the very rapid rise of "civilian voentorg" and many volunteers, organised as the Cossacks or simply individuals, flocking to Donbass. This is all hardly "not giving a fuck".

I also remember some pretty big crowds in Moscow slightly earlier cheering for something completely opposite.

Khepesh wrote:
.......As Rostov and Krasnodar are among several regions of Russia that are claimed by Kiev, and their removal from Russia is desired by Washington..........

Many things are desired by Washington, does not mean that they will get it. Last time I checked Russia still has armed forces.

Khepesh wrote:
.......You ignore that SBU was extremely vigorous in their operations, far more vigorous than anybody expected, and many who could have led rebellions dissapeared into the basement. ..........

Nobody is that vigorous, especially Ukrainians. Fact that they were able to be even remotely effective means that support was not there.

Khepesh wrote:
.....Also, if I think that a miscalculation has been made, then I will say so, and I believe a miscalculation was made in not entering "Ukraine" in early 2014 and that many lives could have been saved by early intervention......

Back then "Ukraine" was still Ukraine (without quotations) in the eyes of entire world and most of Russia. This is changing now and there will be opportunity for intervention if things continue at this pace but 2014 was most definitely not the time.

Khepesh wrote:
............To agree that Odessa is part of the synthetic country called "Ukraine" is to legitimize it and accept that the treason of 1991 is valid...............

Agreed and I hope that this will be rectified. We seem to disagree on timeframe.


I agree with you in 99% of things it's just that I believe that some things need to happen organically and that they cannot be pushed without causing serious adverse and unexpected effects, that is all.
Every single argument we have stems from differences in perceiving the correct moment to take action, not type of action to be taken.

JohninMK wrote:They won't be liking Putin's Syria announcement, whatever it actually means, in Kiev. Some will no doubt be thinking that they missed the opportunity of attacking east when Moscow was primarily thinking about Syria.

Or, and this is be a crazy off the wall idea, Moscow knew Kiev were serious about striking and put this out to try to deflect or even hasten it.

I do not think it is crazy at all, I wrote about it on Russia/Syria tread. We know that all ukrops can do now is either rot or attack. No third option and clock is ticking.

Back to the Cassad article, this caught my eye

"
The attack on the industrial zone in Avdeevka spent most of the 16th battalion of the 58th brigade of the ATO. It is formed on the basis of the former volunteer battalion "Poltava". This is a new trend in the ATO, which began more 131st separate reconnaissance battalion, formed by 60% of the members of the UNA-UNSO (organization banned in Russia), among which you can often find war veterans in Transnistria, Chechnya, Abkhazia.

In these cases, there is kind of like a part of the ATO, but it is formed from a highly motivated fighters seeking to fight.

Does this mean Kiev is grouping its most motivated and trained troopers in shock units wich presumably receive better rations (food is terrible in the ukranian army), pay and gear?

That reminds me of the German army during the spring offensives of 1918, they concentrated their remaning best young and fit men in "attack divisions", leaving the line units with taged recruits for static defence.

As such I estimate this is a sympton of weakness rather than strength. Along with the reports about Polish and Turkish mercenaries.

How about the battles for Yasinovataya? Last thing I heard the orks were using artillery. By now they must have lost about three hundred casualties in these attacks, almost a battallion. What about the rest of the front?

Somehow this skipped censorship. Sounds like a real battle out there

https://dninews.com/article/full-blown-war-many-sectors-donetsk-under-heavy-ukrainian-attacks-listen-doni-audio

And what's up with the retreat from Syria? Coming home for the big battle in Ukraine? I find it slightly ominous Russia is deploying coastal artillery to Crimea, what for? the place is already impregnable with the forces already deployed

Russia placed in #Crimea 130mm "Bereg A-222" Coastal protection cannons Range of 23km & 12 shell-fire rate per min

PapaDragon wrote:
Every single argument we have stems from differences in perceiving the correct moment to take action, not type of action to be taken.

Yet the replies you made, except about Odessa, were a little "unclear". In Rostov they were cheering the Army moving to the border as they thought an intervention was going to happen, any other cheering in other places at other times for other events if not relevant and clouds the issue of support and why there was no uprising. Thousands will disagree about your comments on SBU, or they would if they had the freedom too read and reply, but they have no freedom to do so, and some are now dead. If any politician in any foreign country talks negatively about the territorial integrity of Russia, then that is a legitimate concern, and talk of still having an army etc is not really relevant to the specific matter of who claims what land as theirs.

It is perfectly normal to argue about what should be done and when, yet I think some misconceptions are presented as argument and cloud the issues and cause un-needed friction. Maybe this will make sense, maybe not. I believe that the Putin of Crimea was the real Putin and that the Putin of Minsk is a mask, and that too many are believing the mask and not the reality that I believe lays behind the mask. This then makes it seem at face value that there are two opposing positions, one seemingly anti Putin, and one seemingly pro Putin. This is false and counter productive, as are the shouts of "Kremlyadi" etc, something I admit to have shouted in the past, but rarely, and do not do so anymore. It requires the "other side" to also wake up and stop such tactics as blaming the people of Donbass and Novorossiya for their own misfortunes. These comments are of course relevant far outside this forum, but I'm likely pissing into the wind.

Ляшко: Мы получили от Европы унизительный мизер

Лидер Радикальной партии Украины Олег Ляшко назвал унижением договор о зоне свободной торговли с Евросоюзом, ради которого он сам принял активное участие в беспорядках на майдане в 2014 году.

С удивлением глава РП выяснил, что, оказывается, большинство квот по этому договору на 2016 год Киев уже исчерпал.

«И этот унизительный мизер — это желанная зона свободной торговли с Евросоюзом?! Какой идиот подписал это соглашение?» — пишет Ляшко на своей странице в Facebook.

Он отмечает, что по состоянию на 10 марта Киев уже исчерпал выделенные на текущий год квоты на беспошлинные поставки, сахара, ячменной крупы и муки в страны Евросоюза. Кроме того, в прошлом месяце оказался исчерпан лимит Украины на беспошлинные поставки в ЕС меда, сока и кукурузы.

«Так, исчерпаны квоты на сахар (20 тыс. тонн), ячменную крупу и муку (6,3 тыс. тонн). Также на 86,9% использована квота на обработанные томаты (всего 10 тыс. тонн), на 74,5% использована квота по позиции пшеница мягкая, пшеничная мука и гранулы (всего 950 тыс. тонн), а квота по овсу использована на 55,9% (из 4 тыс. тонн)», — заявил лидер Радикальной партии.

Следует отметить, что Ляшко был одним из участников так называемого Евромайдана и активно протестовал против решения четвертого президента Украины Виктора Януковича отложить подписание договора об ассоциации с ЕС. Экономической частью данного документа было соглашение о зоне свободной торговли (ЗСТ) с Евросоюзом.

Еще тогда эксперты предупреждали о катастрофических последствиях для украинской экономики в случае подписания соглашения о ЗСТ. Однако выступавшие за подписание договора политики сподобились прочитать его лишь спустя почти два года после подписания.

Ljashko is asking, which idiot sign Free trade agreement with EU, which is actually humiliating for Ukraine as their quotas to export in EU are so small, that they actually fully accomplish them in the first two months. And they made Maidan revolution and start a civil war for this agreement, because president Yanukovich didn't want to sign it.

Khepesh wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:
Every single argument we have stems from differences in perceiving the correct moment to take action, not type of action to be taken.

Yet the replies you made, except about Odessa, were a little "unclear". In Rostov they were cheering the Army moving to the border as they thought an intervention was going to happen, any other cheering in other places at other times for other events if not relevant and clouds the issue of support and why there was no uprising. Thousands will disagree about your comments on SBU, or they would if they had the freedom too read and reply, but they have no freedom to do so, and some are now dead. If any politician in any foreign country talks negatively about the territorial integrity of Russia, then that is a legitimate concern, and talk of still having an army etc is not really relevant to the specific matter of who claims what land as theirs.

It is perfectly normal to argue about what should be done and when, yet I think some misconceptions are presented as argument and cloud the issues and cause un-needed friction. Maybe this will make sense, maybe not. I believe that the Putin of Crimea was the real Putin and that the Putin of Minsk is a mask, and that too many are believing the mask and not the reality that I believe lays behind the mask. This then makes it seem at face value that there are two opposing positions, one seemingly anti Putin, and one seemingly pro Putin. This is false and counter productive, as are the shouts of "Kremlyadi" etc, something I admit to have shouted in the past, but rarely, and do not do so anymore. It requires the "other side" to also wake up and stop such tactics as blaming the people of Donbass and Novorossiya for their own misfortunes. These comments are of course relevant far outside this forum, but I'm likely pissing into the wind.

May the wind shift 180 degrees for you without warning.

medo wrote:

Ляшко: Мы получили от Европы унизительный мизер............................
.

Ljashko is asking, which idiot sign Free trade agreement with EU, which is actually humiliating for Ukraine as their quotas to export in EU are so small, that they actually fully accomplish them in the first two months. And they made Maidan revolution and start a civil war for this agreement, because president Yanukovich didn't want to sign it.

Please don't put a whole block of alien text up and force everyone to translate it. Please do that yourself. Anyway, here it is via Yandex.

No doubt he hasn't looked at the rip-off Canadian deal for pork yet, that's another stichup by someone.

Lyashko: We have received from Europe a humiliating misery

Leader of the Radical party of Ukraine Oleg Lyashko called the humiliation of the Treaty on free trade zone with the European Union, for which he took an active part in the riots on the Maidan in 2014. Surprised the head of the SPM found that the majority of the quotas under this agreement for 2016 Kyiv already exhausted.

"And this humiliating misery is desired free trade zone with the European Union?! What idiot signed this agreement?" — wrote Lyashko on his page in Facebook. He notes that as of March 10, Kiev has exhausted allocated for the current year the quota on duty-free imports, sugar, barley cereals and flour in the EU countries. In addition, last month has been exhausted the limit of Ukraine for duty-free imports into the EU of honey, juice and corn. "So, exhausted quotas for sugar (20 thousand tons), barley cereals and flour (6.3 tonnes). Also on 86.9% of used quota for processed tomatoes (10 thousand tons), 74.5% used quota positions soft wheat, wheat flour and pellets (a total of 950 thousand tons), and quota for oats used to 55.9 per cent (4 thousand tons)", — said the leader of the Radical party.

It should be noted that Lyashko was one of the participants in the so-called Euromaidan and actively protested against the decision of the fourth President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych to postpone the signing of the Association agreement with the EU. The economic part of this document was the agreement on free trade area (FTA) with the European Union.

Even then, the experts warned about the catastrophic consequences for the Ukrainian economy in case of signing of the FTA. However, speaking at the signing of the Treaty policy was able to read it only after almost two years after signing.

Lyashko FSB agent1111.

Artemovsk:

ZSU 23/2 on a T55 hull? What is this Liberia?