The Situation in the Ukraine. #24

KoTeMoRe wrote:ZSU 23/2 on a T55 hull? What is this Liberia?

I noticed that myself too. It also reminded me of something (as always):



Serbian BTS-2 with Bofors 40mm AA gun on it during Yugoslav wars.

Militarov wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:ZSU 23/2 on a T55 hull? What is this Liberia?

I noticed that myself too. It also reminded me of something (as always):



Serbian BTS-2 with Bofors 40mm AA gun on it during Yugoslav wars.

Yeah and its a BTS-2 here as well. Damn Ukraine can't even have its own Mad MaX ideas.

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Militarov wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:ZSU 23/2 on a T55 hull? What is this Liberia?

I noticed that myself too. It also reminded me of something (as always):



Serbian BTS-2 with Bofors 40mm AA gun on it during Yugoslav wars.

Yeah and its a BTS-2 here as well. Damn Ukraine can't even have its own Mad MaX ideas.

They just were not as good as ours

Militarov wrote:

Something that the Somali gangs can only dream of having. Must make Banderatards proud.

"Daaaaad... TImmy has put wheels on the bathtub again and this time he has run it through the chicken coop..." "It is stuck there daaaaad... can you get it out for him?"

If I were Putin, I would have sent army to Kiev to put down Maidan coup and saved Yanukovych from being toppled. Time has passed. Whatever happened in the past cannot be changed.

Khepesh wrote:As Rostov and Krasnodar are among several regions of Russia that are claimed by Kiev, and their removal from Russia is desired by Washington, then their fate is relevant. To agree that Odessa is part of the synthetic country called "Ukraine" is to legitimize it and accept that the treason of 1991 is valid. From 1991 until 2014 the official line, the only line, from Kremlin is that Russia has no claim on any territory of "Ukraine". This of course meant that anybody saying that Crimea was Russia were "heretics". Yet now the "heretics" are the orthodox. The official line from Kremlin now is that "Ukraine" is to be a stable unified country, yet there is Donbass, so the official position is rather odd and clearly only for consumption by the West. I wonder how long before those of us who are still "heretics" because of Novorossiya will become orthodox.

The difference between Odessa and Crimea is that the former is more Ukrainizied than the latter.
That is the reality on the ground.
Can Odessa be returned to Russia?
Yes, but it will be far more difficult than Crimea.

Today Rostislav Ishchenko has written that there may be more to the withdrawl from Syria than is seen at face value. What he says to an extent coincides with the article I reposted here saying that an agreement could be made between Moscow and Washington to solve the problem of Ukraine by dividing it. Lots of shouting and wailing and knashing teeth from the West, but nothing really serious as Washington benefits by getting at least a part of Ukraine. However, Ishchenko says that the aircraft may have been withdrawn because they will be needed elsewhere. He posits that as Russia has done the "heavy lifting" in Syria, an agreement may have been made to withdraw and let Washington do the mopping up, for instance destroying IS at Rakka, Palmyra, Mozul etc, and so claim "victory", while Moscow deals with other matters without Washington screaming for nukes etc. He says it is possible the aircraft may not be for Donbass, but Kiev itself.

It is of course simply speculation, but from Ishchenko then it cannot be instantly disregarded as tinfoil hat nonsense. He does not point this out, but others do, is that while VKS is large, the number of high end operational aircraft, and now with combat experienced pilots, is not so great given the length of Russian border, and while UAF is almost worthless, it still needs to be dealt with effectively and swiftly, a day, maybe a few hours perhaps, but it needs the best to make sure the job is done. There is also the important matter of supression of UA ground forces. Amongst all the talk of why this withdrawl has happened, there is no satisfactory reason given, so Ishchenko has tentatively given one.

http://cont.ws/post/224474

Greetings. I sifted through the RPD reports from https://dninews.com of the last 4 days

I wrote a big entry on my blog but since most of it is a copy paste from the reports and are in english, I will just give you the conclusions.

- Fighting has doubled in intensity. Last week there were 200 "shellings" on average a day. Today they jumped to 500 and the briefing goes into more detail, down to small arms, but leaves out artillery fire, though indirectly they mention it through the detection of an arty observer.

- Fighting for Yasinovataya rages on and orders have been given to hold the positions at all costs. The danger of Gorlovka being cut off is understood, and measures are being taken. Ukros lost about a battalion in these attacks, at least. Not counting the casualties everywhere else. Even in Lugansk there is some skirmishing.

- Basurin briefings are much more detailed and beligerant. I think there is steel behind those words.


One thing that perplexes me is that they make a fuss out of a couple Ukranian conscripts being killed. AFAIK, the junta used conscripts as cannon fodder in all battles up to Debaltsevo cauldron. I take it that since Minsk II the brunt of the fighting is being borne by NatGuard and volunteer regular units, while conscripts are sent to rear areas and support to prevent problems at home. If they are pushing again conscripts into the front lines, things are not going well.

Reports of a mutiny among paratroopers that have been at the front for too long and are fed up. This interested me, because if the above conclusion is true, that means the Ukranian army better troops are battle weary because they have had a disproportionate share of the fighting.

Lots of signs of crumbling morale. Drunkenness, looting, insubordination, hazing.

Signs of a shortage of troops.

I think the Ukranian army by now is close to the breaking point. One big battle and could very well collapse.

Hope this was of interest.

PS. I am very worried about the possibility of Turkey giving Ukraine a hand to cause trouble in Crimea. I think that's what the coastal artillery is for.

If I were Putin, I would have sent army to Kiev to put down Maidan coup and saved Yanukovych from being toppled. Time has passed. Whatever happened in the past cannot be changed.

Problem is there would be plenty of anti Russian Ukrainians that would have loved such a clumsy move by Russia just so they could drag Russia into a protracted and bloody war.

If the Ukrainian people could be shown the future they might have welcomed Russian troops in to restore order, but glimpses of the future are not possible... things would be orders of magnitude worse if Putin had been stupid enough to use force in the Ukraine.

Here we go again. At least it is only 6000 now. QED the UA is definitely not fighting a citizen army so if defeated in the future no shame is possible.

At least 6,000 military personnel of the Russian Federation are currently fighting in Donbas, the Ukrainian State Security Service (SBU) has reported. "Today, according to our data, around 6,000 Russian military men remain in the territory of Donbas," head of the SBU office Oleksandr Tkachuk said at a briefing in Kyiv on Tuesday. "Russian servicemen are constantly rotated in the territory of Ukraine not controlled by the state authorities. Their numbers have decreased slightly, but not significantly," he said.

Tkachuk has not specified the exact number of Russian citizens staying in Donbas. He stressed that the total number of members of illegal armed groups, who are located in Donbas, is about 40,000.

Tkachuk estimated that more than 1,600 Russian servicemen have been killed in eastern Ukraine since Russia illegally annexed Ukraine in early 2014.

A few words from Kiev's Boss via Interfax. Think she might be setting the bar a bit high.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland says U.S. sanctions imposed on Russia must remain until the Kremlin keeps Crimea.

"And of course, Crimea sanctions must remain in place so long as the Kremlin imposes its will on that piece of Ukrainian land," she said in a statement before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday.

Nuland also believes that the year 2016 may become a turning point for Ukraine.

"With will and effort on all sides, 2016 can be a turning point for Ukraine. If security can improve in coming weeks, if hostages are returned, if the parties can finalize negotiations on election modalities and other political issues, we could see legitimate leaders elected in Donbas by fall, the withdrawal of Russian forces and equipment, and the return of Ukraine's sovereignty over its border before the end of the year," she said.

In her words, the stakes are as high as ever. "With strong, unified leadership in Kyiv, 2016 can and should be a turning-point year for Ukraine's sovereignty and European future. If and as Ukraine's leaders recommit to drive the country forward, the United States must be there to support them, in our own national interest. At the same time, we must be no less rigorous than the Ukrainian people themselves in demanding Kyiv's leaders take their responsibility now to deliver a truly clean, strong, just Ukraine while they still have the chance," she added.

To remind of the history. This is a map of Southwest Russia in 1914, not any "Ukraine", the name does not appear because no such state exists in 1914, and had never existed, and would not exist until it was artificially manufactured 77 years later. Some of the names are different to those used today because of the renaming done after the Civil War, and the new names hid the Russian origins of some cities. Just Southwest of the center of the map is Ekaterinoslav, now known as Dnepropetrovsk. Ekaterinoslav is "Catherine's Glory" and is a Russian founded city. Just south is Alexandrovsk, named after either Prince Alexander Golitsyn or Prince Alexander Vyazemsky, it is not sure. But no matter who it was named after, it is a Russian founded city. Today it is Zaporozhye. Both cities are claimed as hohol heartlands, particulary Zaporozhye, yet they are Russian founded cities, as is Odessa, Nikolaev, Donetsk, Lugansk, Kharkov and others. All are in Novorossiya, all are Russian, not any Ukraine. Seems this is forgotten.

Today Poroshenko made a statement that could be construed as an admission from him that there will be war. Talking about the fighting at Avdeevka he said,

Those fights that are now taking place in the industrial zone, and the concentration of enemy armed forces, along with tanks and artillery, does not give us reason to hope for a guaranteed peaceful development of events

He also said that the only reason the fighting has subsided a little is because of the work of OSCE, when of course it is him playing games with on/off swtitch

http://112.ua/politika/poroshenko-boi-v-avdeevke-ne-dayut-nam-nadeyatsya-na-garantirovannoe-mirnoe-razvitie-sobytiy-na-donbasse-298489.html

Today's update. Much more at link.

Wednesday, March 16, 2016 - 17:10

The situation on the contact line remains complicated and tense.

Over the past day the Ukrainian military violated the ceasefire thirty-eight times and shelled the territory of the Republic two hundred ten times. Altogether the enemy launched twenty-two 120mm mortar shells and sixty-six 82mm mortar shells. The enemy also used infantry fighting vehicles, grenade launchers of different types, anti-aircraft systems and small arms. The orders to shell residential areas of the localities of the DPR were given by the such war criminals as the commander of the 58th brigade Zabolotny, the commander of the 93rd brigade Klochkov and the commander of the 23rd separate mechanised infantry battalion of the 56th separate mechanised infantry brigade Evdokimov.

The most intense shellings from heavy weapons prohibited by the Minsk Agreements were applied to such localities as Yasinovataya, Zaytsevo, Krutaya Balka, Staromikhailovka, Spartak, Mineralnoye, Dokuchaevsk, the area of the airport and the Volvo Centre, the Petrovsky district of the Donetsk city.

The OSCE mission keeps documenting gross violations of the Minsk Agreements by the Ukrainian side but does not make any attempts to curb such activities. In particular, in the sites of storage of the Ukrainian weapons and military equipment the OSCE observers documented the absence of ten 152mm motorised howitzers (2C3 “Akatsia”), fourteen mortars (six 120mm and eight 82mm), nine tanks T-72, nine 85mm anti-tank cannons. Near the locality of Kurakhovo the observers documented eighteen 152mm howitzers “Ghiatsint-B”. At one place they were not admitted.

The Ukrainian political and military authorities keep escalating the situation in the area of the Donetsk filter plant. Yesterday the general Taran gave guarantees of restoration works security in the area of the plant, but, in fact, the Ukrainian side did not keep its word. Moreover, from 7:30 am there was another shelling of the “industrial zone” and the plant itself. The management of the communal enterprise “Donbassvoda” and its employees can not start restoration works at the plant and there still remains a danger of chemical disaster due to constant shellings. Having got under fire, the representatives of the OSCE and JCCC had to return to Donetsk and restart negotiations with the Ukrainian side on the ceasefire.

https://dninews.com/article/donetsk-defense-situation-report-16032016

Is there are somewhere in the Russian internet any professional grade, after action reports to show what the fighting there is really like? I have the feelings that there are no infantry tactics at all. Seems like most Ukranian troops cannot maneuver at squad or platoon level even. They are untrained mob and bunch up, expose themselves, or more likely, never leave cover, and do all the stupid things untrained soldiers do.

I am under the suspicion that they just take cover and fire in the general direction of the enemy at a range of a few hundred meters. Even the Novorussian shock batallion (Motorola unit) didn't look at all to me as trained infantry , lots of spray and pray. Of course the militias surely have improved.

Other thing that I don't understand, is the absence of corpses in the battefield. Reading accounts of the world wars , the Spanish Civil War, and the Korean War, an infantry assault would involve dozens, or hundreds of troops, moving in small rushes to get close enough to launch grenades and storm with the bayonet. When such attacks failed, the field ended up filled with dozens of bodies of dead and wounded. I am surprised that during 2014 no film of photos has surfaced of a scene like that. One would expect the slopes of Saur Mogila, for example, to be strewn with bodies.

I suspect the reason is in part the lack of aggresiveness of untrained Ukranian infantry. I doubt they have the spirit to keep going under fire despite friends falling left and right. I think the main reason is the firepower of modern weapons. With everybody armed with assault rifles, there are so many bullets flying that infantry cannot lift their faces from the ground unless they are supported by armor or artillery, particularly in open plain with no dead ground. Most infantry "fights" are likely just exchanges of rifle fire being fired in bursts at 300-400 meters range. That, and the fact most of the killing is done by artillery would explain not only the "empty battlefield", but also that the enemy never comes close enough for bodies to be found.


On the subject of fortification I am shocked to read at Cassad , from what little I understand through automatic translation, that the defensive positions of the Lugansk militia are so poorly organized, after a year and a half of war!

It's an article by Vladimir Orlov and would like a summary from you.

I just can't believe it. The blockposts both sides use always looked to me very rudimentary. I was satisfied with the one I saw in the video when this fighting started at Yasinovataya, large concrete blocks piled up and what appeared to be a deep dugout, but I am really shocked no one at Lugansk has bothered to dig proper trenches after all this time. I really hope Donetsk sector is properly fortified.

At least the enemy has figured it out and some of their fieldworks look quite competent. I study in depth (pun) trench warfare and know a couple things about fortifications, besides, now anybody can download army manuals from the internet. There is simple no excuse for not having better positions. I know shoveling is hard, but having construction machinery at hand, you can dig quickly trenches.

I trust the problem is just with Lugansk militia and Donetsk army is better prepared.

Ispan wrote:

It's an article by Vladimir Orlov and would like a summary from you..

That article was based on what he saw on the video footage from the blockpost when Basurin took the journalists there, not an actual inspection of the defensives. There were then arial photos of ukrops defensive positions showing how professional they looked in comparison to a quick and unclear climpse of the blockpost at Yasinovataya, which is an absurd comparrison. There was a video last year of VSN Defensive positions being made outside Gorlovka which were perfectly okay and not less than anything made by ukrops, and I think that was the last time any VSN defensive positions have been discussed or shown in any detail, so his complaints are not really valid. The video from Gorlovka was presented by the garrison commander to show the residents that the defences were good, as at that time they thought ukrops might be storming any day.

Edit: The blockpost on the road itself is really only a traffic police checkpoint, and the defensives are around that area, so he never saw anything of the substansive defences.

In Lugansk the advisor to Plotnitsky on legal affairs, Dmitry Kargaev, has been found dead at his home. He had been shot four times, one to the head. http://www.politnavigator.net/v-luganske-ubili-sovetnika-plotnickogo-luganskie-i-rossijjskie-smi.html

Khepesh wrote:In Lugansk the advisor to Plotnitsky on legal affairs, Dmitry Kargaev, has been found dead at his home. He had been shot four times, one to the head. http://www.politnavigator.net/v-luganske-ubili-sovetnika-plotnickogo-luganskie-i-rossijjskie-smi.html

Lugansk and it's mafia-style politics. Why can't it be more like Donetsk? I hope one day Lugansk SR gets absorbed by Donetsk SR, as Lugansk leadership is too corrupt and petty to lead a nation from the bottom of a pile of ashes.

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/710083640408014848/photo/1

Jihadi Julian attacking Graham Phillips. I hope this retarded terrorist loving assfuck gets what's coming to him.

kvs wrote:https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/710083640408014848/photo/1

Jihadi Julian attacking Graham Phillips.   I hope this retarded terrorist loving assfuck gets what's coming to him.

from facebook
Some are Azov Battalion Neo Nazis from Ukraine, in Latvia celebrating Adolf Hitler and Latvian Legionnaire Waffen SS. scum

Жанна Таль added 5 new photos.
10 hrs ·

В Латвии фашизма нет и полная свобода мнения и слова. Для тех, кто еще не понял...

«Именем бога, я торжественно обещаю в борьбе против большевиков неограниченное послушание Главнокомандующему вооружёнными силами Германии Адольфу Гитлеру и за это обещание я, как храбрый воин, всегда готов отдать свою жизнь».

Клятва латышского легионера Waffen SS

.....

Шествие легионеров с последующим возложением цветов состоялось.

"Kремлёвский блогер" Грэм Филлипс арестован.

Немецких антифашистов, собиравшихся участвовать в акциях 16 марта, задержали в аэропортах Гамбурга и Риги.

Сегодня в аэропортах Гамбурга и Риги были задержаны активисты левой партии Die Linke, которые завтра намеревались участвовать в акции протеста антифашистов против чествования легионеров СС.

Сегодня в Берлине перед зданием посольства Латвии в Германии, состоялся пикет сторонников Die Linke, которые протестовали против ущемления свободы слова и демократии со стороны латвийского государства и включения антифашистов в «черные списки».

Политики хотели участвовать в акции протеста против шествия Лимбажского отделения организации «Daugavas Vanagi» в день легионеров.

Как рассказала в интервью радио Baltkom лидер антифашисткого движения в Германии Корнелия Керт, она узнала о своем попадании в "черный список" Латвии непосредственно перед вылетом.

Сегодня депутат Европарламента от Die Linke Сабина Лёзинг (Sabine Lösing) сделала заявление для прессы, в котором осудила то, что в Ригу не допустили шестерых антифашистов — граждан Германии, но потворствуют фанам Waffen-SS, и выразила убеждение, что таким способом латвийские власти не приносят пользу своей стране.
See Translation

In Latvia, fascism no and total freedom of opinion and expression. For those who do not yet understand...
"in the name of God, I do solemnly promise in the fight against the bolsheviks unlimited obedience of the commander-in-Chief of the armed forces of Germany Adolf Hitler and for that, I promise, as a brave warrior, always ready to give his life".
Oath of the Latvian Legionnaire Waffen SS
.....
Procession Legionnaires with subsequent laying on flowers was held.
"kremlëvskiy blogger" Graham Phillips arrested.
German-fascists together to participate in the shares of the March 16, detained at airports in Hamburg and Riga.
Today in the airports of Hamburg and riga were detained activists left party die linke, which tomorrow had intended to participate in the protest antifashistov against to commemorate the legionnaires mop.
Today in Berlin in front of the embassy of Latvia in Germany, was held at the picket supporters, die linke, who were protesting against the infringement of freedom of speech and democracy by the state of Latvia and the inclusion of antifashistov in the black lists ".
Politicians like to participate in the protest against the procession limbazhskogo offices of the organization "daugavas vanagi" on the day of the legionnaires.
As told in an interview with radio baltkom leader antifashistkogo movement in Germany Cornelia, Kurt, she found out about his case in a "Black list" of Latvia directly before the flight.
Today, the deputy of the European Parliament from die linke Sabina Lëzing (Sabine Lösing) made a statement to the press, in which the condemned the fact that, in Riga prevented six antifashistov - citizens of Germany, but condone the fans Waffen-SS, and expressed the belief that the way of the latvian authorities do not The benefit of their country.
Translated from Russian

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10204363190558681&set=pcb.10204363288641133&type=3

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10204363191318700&set=pcb.10204363288641133&type=3

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10204363190838688&set=pcb.10204363288641133&type=3

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10204363191758711&set=pcb.10204363288641133&type=3

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10204363267920615&set=pcb.10204363288641133&type=3

https://www.facebook.com/jeanna.tal.1?pnref=story

Ivan Katchanovski

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My article concerning the conflict in Ukraine has just been published in a special issue of European Politics and Society journal. The following link provides free limited-time access to the online version of this article: http://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/fMIKM62WVAhWcbGayByC/full

ABSTRACT
Ukraine previously experienced significant regional political divisions, including separatism in Crimea and Donbas. However, in contrast to post-communist countries such as Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, and former Yugoslavia, prior to 2014 Ukraine was able to avoid a war and a break-up. This study examines the role of separatists, the Yanukovych government, the Maidan opposition and the Maidan government, far-right organizations, Russia, the US, and the EU in the conflict in Donbas. It uses a specially commissioned survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) in 2014 to analyse public support for separatism in Donbas, compared to other regions of Ukraine, and the major factors which affect such support. It concludes that all these actors contributed in various ways to the conflict in Donbas, which involved both a civil war and a direct Russian military intervention since August 2014. The study links this conflict to the ‘Euromaidan’, specifically, the government overthrow by means of the Maidan massacre, and the secession and Russia's annexation of Crimea. The KIIS survey shows that support for separatism is much stronger in Donbas compared to other regions, with the exception of Crimea, and that the break-up of Ukraine is unlikely to extend to its other parts.

This means that the free article downloads already reached the 50 users limit. I'll post the text of the article on my academic website soon.

https://www.facebook.com/ivan.katchanovski

Website

http://uottawa.academia.edu/IvanKatchanovski