Syrian Civil War: News #8

They need to forget about ISIS.
That's what they need to do.

It's not normal to march to east, while Damascus is surrounded by hordes of terrorists.

KiloGolf wrote:
Fair enough, but Russia can't claim now that SAA (however monstrously incompetent) having no decent air support when they need it, is purely their fault. Russians and Syrians disagreed on the Tabqa op. It's a big mess, that what it is. One big player needs to step up, Iran or Russia.

PS. I thought the Tabqa/Raqqa op was strange when they could have advanced to Deir Hafir and consolidate in Latakia much faster.

Advancing towards Raqqa makes good sense if the objective is to keep ISIS forces fighting on 3 main fronts, rather than allow them to fight on two, Dier or Manbij. Especially given the SDF stopped threatening Raqqa and moved on Manbij.

If that was indeed the objective it seems to have worked, perhaps a bit too well. Maybe it was just a bit premature, more ISIS should have been allowed to go and save Manbij before the SAA strike at Raqqa. Oh the power of hindsight!

Which member has left the forum? Is it definite?

Guys, conspiracy theories aside, there is the question of battlefield reconnaisance and information, attack coordination by ISIS. I mean, we are supposed to believe that same Abu Hajar idiots that throw themselves in pointless frontal attacks against dug-in Kurds, while using improvised battlewagons managed to execute both day and night assaults and continue to press their advance?


I honestly hope that Russian commanders and planners start to take this affair more seriously. There is a reason why those "surrounded" areas in government-controlled land survive to this day, and why as much as 1/3 of the army is "fighting" by being positioned around them. They are avoiding actual frontlines and probably involved in smuggling.

The only way to avenge the men who died actually fighting the various shades of terrorists is to take the gloves off. Eliminate enclave by enclave, pocket by pocket. If need by, enlarge the Russian contingent, if only to provide base proximity security. And start racking up the sortie numbers, because there are far too many targets apparently in Syria right now. This half-hearted attempts make Russian intervention seem weak and ineffective. How would regular Russian Army deal with such situations? Aleppo? The desert front? At one point the pain must be dealt to obvious supply lines coming from neighbouring countries.

calm wrote:They need to forget about ISIS.
That's what they need to do.

It's not normal to march to east, while Damascus is surrounded by hordes of terrorists.

there is one reason to march east and that is to link up with the troops in deir ez zoir, these poor gus have been doing a brilliant job in keeping ISIS from taking the area. These guys really need a break now. If ISIS collapses in Northern Aleppo they will flee south towards deir haifr and either put pressure on SAA there or flee further south and onto Deir ez zoir which with an extra 1,000 or so ISIS the SAA might not hold out as well.

It's interesting when SouthFront maps and colors tend to be quite wrong when SAA takes a beating. They claim SAA lost only up to Bir Anbaj, when they fell westward off Bir Abu Allaj to Zakia  (first captured by SAA in June 3rd) crossroad since this afternoon. Nothing wrong with being honest of a defeat (and its extent).  



The situation right now:

Emmanuel ‏@EmmanuelGMay  2h
South-West #Raqqa : #Daesh take back Khirbat Zaydān and Bir Abu al `Allaj from #SAA v @TheArabSource

It basically takes 1 day of IS counterattack to erase 17 days of SAA attack progress.

SturmGuard wrote:The only way to avenge the men who died actually fighting the various shades of terrorists is to take the gloves off. Eliminate enclave by enclave, pocket by pocket. If need by, enlarge the Russian contingent, if only to provide base proximity security. And start racking up the sortie numbers, because there are far too many targets apparently in Syria right now. This half-hearted attempts make Russian intervention seem weak and ineffective. How would regular Russian Army deal with such situations? Aleppo? The desert front? At one point the pain must be dealt to obvious supply lines coming from neighbouring countries.

I don't think SAA & co. have enough trained/motivated troops to do anything more than contain these enclaves. To clean this mess you need a minimum of 3/1 troop superiority and at best 5/1. I'll venture to guess that SAA can hardly keep 20,0000 - 30,000 trained conscripts, active in organized Army formations all over that huge country. And then there's their kit, which by now has transformed into a sub-saharan Africa militia-level trash.

As if things weren't that bad, they seem to be unable to compensate with better training and enhanced infantry skills (like the Kurds). So overall SAA proper and NDF have it worst out there.

Jihadi zombies have their twisted ideology to drive them, drugs, sex slaves, turkish hospitals/holidays and Gulf cash. And a constant flow of volunteers pouring in from neighboring countries.

d_taddei2 wrote:

calm wrote:They need to forget about ISIS.
That's what they need to do.

It's not normal to march to east, while Damascus is surrounded by hordes of terrorists.

there is one reason to march east and that is to link up with the troops in deir ez zoir, these poor gus have been doing a brilliant job in keeping ISIS from taking the area. These guys really need a break now. If ISIS collapses in Northern Aleppo they will flee south towards deir haifr and either put pressure on SAA there or flee further south and onto Deir ez zoir which with an extra 1,000 or so ISIS the SAA might not hold out as well.

I think isis needs more than 5-8000 troops to break DEZ.

SAA need to crush thoes pockets, and to free the troops besieging them right now.
All of this should be done by the end of this year.

SturmGuard wrote:Which member has left the forum? Is it definite?

Guys, conspiracy theories aside, there is the question of battlefield reconnaisance and information, attack coordination by ISIS. I mean, we are supposed to believe that same Abu Hajar idiots that throw themselves in pointless frontal attacks against dug-in Kurds, while using improvised battlewagons managed to execute both day and night assaults and continue to press their advance?

...........

No conspiracies here. Simple case of SAA overextending themselves and ISIS gathering large amount of meat and SVIBEDs and charging forward. SAA's incompetence done the rest.

I can't help but notice that most of the issues in this war lately seem to stem from the fact that Syrians and Iranians are drunk on power.

Problem is that they are drunk on someone else's power...

AL NUSRA TO RECEIVE T-90 BATTLE TANK



https://southfront.org/al-nusra-to-recieve-t-90-tank-captured-from-syrian-army-by-cia-backed-rebels/A

sepheronx wrote:Can someone remind me again how this is Russia's fault on this?  This is SAA fault.  They need to be determined if they are going to go into Raqqa, and that means full support.  They didn't.  Syria has a larger airforce in their own country than what Russia currently has stationed in Syria.  Add to that, RuAF has been concentrating on bombings in Palmyra and Northern Aleppo, so the Raqqa movement and southern Aleppo has to also get support from other airforces.  I myself would be quite happy just to have Moscow send more aircrafts (and eventually they probably will when they see SAA losing this badly again) but in time being, they cannot be everywhere at once.  For all intense and purposes, RuAF has done far more in a very short period of time than US did in over a year.

I repeat - SyAF needs to be more involved.  I haven't heard much from them in quite some time.

What loss of Ka-52's? You are trolling pretty hard there Kilo

The war on Syria by NATO is not exactly Russia fault ,but is Russia responsibility
simply because Russia have a military base in Syria and is their allies. So MR Putin
should have know that his presence in Syria will invite NATO to attack it.. See?
that wasnt difficult to guess? it was?

The war in Syria began in March 2011 ,according to a Turkey journalist ,that was in Damascus
and Hillary Clinton Demanded Assad peace with Israel ,to end its relations with Russia and IRAN and Hezbolah or War. Assad prefered loyalty to his friends and got the war.

After the IRAQ invasion in 2003 by Bush ,it should have been Obvious by Russia ,that Assad was going to be next for being next to IRAQ. So since that time Russia had time to train the SYrian army to fight an invasion of NATO or Israel.  In 2006 Israel invaded Lebanon , and obviously
Syria had to help Hezbolah to kick Israel from lebanon ,otherwise Latakia was going to be taken
and SYria landlocked.  So any competent leader in Russia should have predicted that a confrontation between US + ISrael against Syria was a matter of time. So Russia was under an obligation to help Syria their allies to prepare Syria to counter any Israel/Americans invasion. At those times Syria had a lot of money ,and its GDP was 7% per year. So Russia the least of the things it could do is properly arm and train the Syrian army ,for a war that was inevitable.
and start selling T-72 tanks to Syria properly armed with night vision and electronics. Is not like it was going to be free. Syria paid for 12 planes and many other things in 2006 that is mig-29sm with night vision and precision bombing capabilities and still in 2011 Syria did not received
anything of what they paid.  Russia could have helped enourmously Syria by training and selling t-72 tanks to Syria ,or even help Syria to produce the tanks on Syria under license. but no. they did nothing of that. Russia waited 5 years after the war began and after Syria lost most of its territory and lost idlib to start to help Syria. Any other competent Russian President will have sent 10,000 mercenaries at least to Syria to help Assad hold Latakia and IDLIB . But he did nothing. Putin just played the political correctness card ,of not interfering in Syria and later
was forced to interfere ,when it was clear that Syria was only a month or two away of total collapse. When lost Idlib and Palmyra.

Assad was full of very old military hardware and very poor conditions T-62 and T-72 tanks
and was not properly armed to face any NATO war. and Russia could have at the very least
upgraded all its tanks and trained its army to fight .

Now assad after 5 years of fighting NATO proxy forces ,armed with NATO trained mercenaries and weapons ,is forced to accept to be bombed by Alqaeda and not fight back.  
So Russia position in Syria in weak as hell , is causing hundreds of civilians killed all for what?
Because Putin did not prepared Syria military with hardware to fight any possible war.
No one here is asking Russia to become a Charity and give away free hardware. Where Russia failed is in prepared its Syrian allies to be armed properly for a NATO war. By not selling and upgrading its armor and gear.  

Then you have Ukraine.  
The revolution began in 2013 ,lasted for 4-5 months and Putin did nothing to save
Yakunovych hold power , he simply AGAIN ,limited to political correctness , and allowed
Americans to overthrow Yakunovych ,something that represent a major threat to Russia security. Russia could have send easily 5,000 fake Pro Government protesters ,to fight the Euromaidans and neutralize them. But Putin was more interested in Sochi construction than
the violent revolution at its borders.

So again and again , what we witness in Putin ,is a extremely Reactionary president.
that will do nothing until things really becomes really bad. it was Putin responsibility to
properly arm,modernize and train Syrian Army if he wanted to continue having their support.
and prepare Syria to fight NATO until Russia could move to Syria to assist them.  But if Putin
didn't wanted to have to deal with a War in Syria. ,then the least he could do is warn Assad
that if he gets in trouble with NATO or Israel he will be alone. and encourage Assad to negotiate
with Israel peace ,like Jordan and become a Puppet state. Yes Russia will have lost its military base in Syria but will have saved them from a war. So it was Putin's obligation to help Syria
to either Avoid a war ,or to fight it. either one. But what Russia did? it encourage Assad to resist
NATO and ISRAEL ,and later did not backup them in full when things goes bad.

Then you have Serbia now blackmailed by Americans to Join NATO, So Serbia see the weak
support Russia give to its allies like Syria ,and they will do right to join NATO and avoid to become another Syria. But what Russia do? Insult Serbia ,by saying is shameful if they join NATO.      But what other choice Serbia have? If Russia is not prepared to go to a war with NATO in support of an ally ,then Russia should stop ,STOP encouraging nations to resist. and fight their imperialism.  Because what Putin is doing, is sending a false image ,that Russia will backup any ally in case they are in trouble. even if that means war with Americans. but that is not the case. Putin from his own mouth told ,was not going to fight Americans ,not even for Syria ,when Obama was about to bomb Assad.

In Summary ,Putin's policies are dangerous. he is encouraging Nations to resist NATO imperialism ,but do not tell them ,that if they get in trouble they will be in their own. I will honestly will have prefered Russia leave middle east and not interfere or make any alliance with Syria. and instead pressure them to cooperate with NATO and Israel. to save so many lives.
And even if that means lose any presence in middle east. It will have been the best thing for Russia and the best thing for Syria.  in short Putin policies are wrong. You don't encourage a friend into a fight with another,if later you are leave them alone.  What Russia is doing will be similar as if a friend of you ask you help to fight another group. then you say sure. but when you go to the fight ,you change opinion and tell your friend. that your support will be limited.

People talks is not Russia responsiblity... bla bla bla. Is not Russia war.. bla bla bla, WRONG!
The war against Syria is a war against Russia in reality .a Pipeline war and a war against IRAN which ultimate goal seeks to encircle Russia even in the caspian sea.
So is Russia responsibility to not give false hopes to its allies ,who wants to be closer to Russia.


Putin is not the genius people makes him to be. He might be a good president ,but he is not
aware of how he is putting at risk the security of other nations with their policies. Russia needs to define which countries are red line for Russia ,that they will not allow ,no matter what to be taken by NATO and that is ready to fight to the end for them. And any other not really important for Russia security ,should be warned they will be 100% on their own if get in trouble.
and that they will do better to not oppose NATO or Israel ,because will be alone.

This means that Russia should stay better fighting withing the borders of their land and nothing
else. it doesn't have the influence and alliance that American have to effectively fight far from its borders a land war.

^^ This is near Zakia. I guess at 0.07 (notice the radio tower at far left) shows SAA position, maybe 1 km west of this location. So it is fair to say Bir Abu al Allaj is under IS control.

Vann7 wrote:..............

Lots of paranoid convoluted nonsense.........

............

Vann7. C'mon.

a video before the front's collapse in Raqqa province

Hopefully that is just a temporal setback. The airbase is so important and IS is rushing whatever it has to block SAA. Just like when SAA launched offensive on FSA aka cannibalists position at Idlib, they suffered many difficulties.

This is how it worked not too far in the past. SAA advances, gets far, gets hit hard, falls back, regroups, hits hard again and gains back + some more.

But in this case, regarding Raqqa, I think it was a poorly thought out plan. At first I was adamant about gaining Raqqa but after seeing how Southern Aleppo, even after Russia provided heavy bombings a Week or two back in S.Aleppo and how SAA still managed to screw that up, I figured that Raqqa was a bad idea at the moment.

Palmyra still gets some attacks but Russia thwarts them. Then same in Northern Aleppo where Russia strikes, and the odd strikes in S.Aleppo. But ultimately, SAA needs to deal with - Damascus, Aleppo, Dir Ezzor, etc. before they think they can go further. Once these other areas are more or less clear, then they can regroup and hit real hard. As Leith said, if they managed to neutralize the enemy in Damascus, they could gain about 10 - 15K in men.

As well, I have noticed lack of news regarding SyAF strikes. I am still aware of Russian strikes in past days as almasdarnews posts it, but I have heard next to nothing from SyAF in the past while. They still have Su-22's, Su-24's, MiG-23's, MiG-21's, and MiG-29's flying around, I don't hear much about their strikes. Unless there is a massive supply issue for ordinance.

I forgot who it was but someone was right on the forum, Raqqa OP needs to just go defensive, they got their asses kicked for no reason. Time to call it a wrap, and shell the ISIS rats in Raqqa to hell as a revenge.

PapaDragon wrote:

KiloGolf wrote:.............

Russia doesn't deliver warplanes to Syria, it's also their fault.

Well I can't really blame Russians for not wanting to deliver aircrafts to Syrians.

They want to export those things. How can they expect to sell any if everyone sees their burnt wrecks all over the news just because they were flown by bunch of incompetent morons?

It's pretty much come to the point where everything that Papa has been emphasizing about just how mf'n useless the SAA are is correct. This was demonstrated so succinctly with the video of Sgt. Andrey Timoshenkov standing his ground, burning his 74's mag into that bomb truck, while SAA scrambled like headless chickens from a fricken ZU-23 mounted technical and T-55. Now I understand that there's probably a hell of a lot of young conscripts now, and they compare in no way to a full blown Russian Marine, but still, this is verging on frightening. Novo's fought a better fight in far less time, and with little preparation or training.

KiloGolf wrote:

^^ This is near Zakia. I guess at 0.07 (notice the radio tower at far left) shows SAA position, maybe 1 km west of this location. So it is fair to say Bir Abu al Allaj is under IS control.

Interesting screen grab from that vid:

it is unacceptable , ...Russia supported troops  in a desert flat land in east Syria,  to be cough by surprise.
There is an obvious lack of air surveillance by UAV or other means.  
These areas should be 24/7 monitored to the last detail .. and any attempt of counter attack to be handled by air..

If Russia doesn't want to keep  humiliating it self , must asap deploy these means of surveillance and air attack by using  uavs or even using SU25s...  

Leting troops getting killed by Talibans in the desert is no good at all...  

[even 15-20 YAK130 (3groups X6pcs on rotational 3 minutes readiness, 8 hour duty per group , based in Palmyra) would do the job of preventing this kind of counter attack .. but UAV surveillance is 100%  needed ASAP!!!]

It was always going to end like this. Look at the YPG/SDF/NATO special forces' mostly unsuccessful northern Raqqa offensive. ISIS has their best forces defending Raqqa. Troops pushing down a desert road toward Raqqa like a bunch of chickens with their heads cut off... just pure stupidity.

Leith Abou Fadel ‏@leithfadel  7 сатипре 7 сати
23 soldiers are confirmed dead. Dozens MIA!. 49 wounded.

Desert Hawks and Syrian Marines left the 555th Regiment at Sufiyah and withdrew all the way to Zakiyah, leaving our men trapped.

https://twitter.com/leithfadel

^^^ leith is talking out of his... well.
no encirclement acc. to Russian journo embedded on the ground there.

TheBlackestAngelBulgaria[S] [score hidden] 3 hours ago*
Information is from Roman Saponkov account at vk.com - he comment with other users his own posts. In comments (under the post from yesterday 21:08 - "Situation begin to clarifying. There is no encirclement. This is good news.") he answer to user Jorge Lopez - "Jorge, they withdrew organized. Night will show what's going to happen"

KiloGolf wrote:

^^ This is near Zakia. I guess at 0.07 (notice the radio tower at far left) shows SAA position, maybe 1 km west of this location. So it is fair to say Bir Abu al Allaj is under IS control.

Maybe it's old footage?
Look at 0:10, that's not Zakia or surrounding areas.

SAA firing rockets towards Sfaiyeh CPF south of Tabqa.
(from southeast?)

https://twitter.com/Luxfero_99/status/745449806894555137

you guys can translate this.
not sure where it's from...



^^ edit: it's a fake, it's from a fire at Ochuluuk, Russia.

calm wrote:

KiloGolf wrote:

^^ This is near Zakia. I guess at 0.07 (notice the radio tower at far left) shows SAA position, maybe 1 km west of this location. So it is fair to say Bir Abu al Allaj is under IS control.

Maybe it's old footage?
Look at 0:10, that's not Zakia or surrounding areas.

SAA firing rockets towards Sfaiyeh CPF south of Tabqa.
(from southeast?)

https://twitter.com/Luxfero_99/status/745449806894555137

possibly old then, it happens with media outlets
Nice!

So situation isn't as bad as it was said to be?

VladimirSahin wrote:So situation isn't as bad as it was said to be?

Well they didn't get encircled it seems. So no IS videos of Russian prisoners.
But the ground was lost as they fell back to Zakia crossroads.