The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

auslander wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:
Can I get a quick rundown of the "master plan"?

Russia will invade.
We will defeat Russia.

So they got beginning and end figured out

Its the middle part that is problematic

There was something about Russia using tacNukes, orcs laying waste to the land, orcs causing severe environmental damage, orcs shooting down RAF, orcs doing a legal preemptive strike and some other details but basically it was some orc's gay fantasy.

auslander wrote:There was something about Russia using tacNukes, orcs laying waste to the land, orcs causing severe environmental damage, orcs shooting down RAF, orcs doing a legal preemptive strike and some other details but basically it was some orc's gay fantasy.

A complete loss of reality hence my Dr Stangelove... read yesterday that the supposed author was attempting to disassociate himself.

I understood the Dr. Strangelove reference and it fits. Whoever the author is he's not of this world.

First no coal for electricity, now running out of gas? As Ukraine is not buying new gas from Russia they are clearly worried about Ukraine stealing Europe's transit gas again.

HOUSTON (Sputnik) — Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Monday he had informed European Commission Vice-President Maros Sefcovic about Moscow's concern over small amount of gas at Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities (UGS).

"I expressed concern, because winter has not ended yet. There is still one month ahead and the stocks of gas are small. Thus, we have informed [Sefcovic]," Novak told reporters on the sidelines of the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston, Texas.

"The situation is not clear with pumping of gas in the new season. The stocks of gas at [Ukrainian] UGS have nearly been completely depleted," Novak added.

https://sputniknews.com/europe/201703071051323870-eu-commission-rusia-ukraine-gas-storage/

Update on my earlier gas storage post. The EU line is they trust what Kiev tells them. But I expect that a EU may well be on a plane shortly.

HOUSTON (Sputnik) — The situation with stocks of gas at Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities (UGS) is under European Commission's control and Brussels is in constant contact with Kiev over this issue, European Commission Vice-President for Energy Union Maros Sefcovic said Tuesday.

"We are in permanent contact with the Ukrainian government… and we believe that the situation is and will be under control, but we agreed that we would keep our communication… if there would be any problems or any indications of complicated situation we will be prepared… to send our monitors… to Ukraine and also to Russia to figure out if there is a real problem," Sefcovic told reporters on the sidelines of the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston, Texas.

On Monday, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said he had informed Sefcovic about Moscow's concern over small amount of gas at Ukrainian UGS.



Another nail in Ukraine's gas transit coffin. The EU won't let Poland halt increased Gazprom capacity in NE Europe.

HOUSTON (Sputnik) — The decision to expand the access of Russia's energy giant Gazprom to Opal gas pipeline has been taken on the basis of the European legislation following careful consideration of all the aspects of its operation, European Commission Vice-President Maros Sefcovic said Tuesday.

"We prepared the Opal decision after careful consideration looking into all aspects of the operation of this pipeline,… all the details regarding the European law and once adopted the decision we did it in full conviction that it is in line with the European law," Sefcovic told reporters on the sidelines of the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston, Texas.

In October 2016, the European Commission expanded Russian energy giant Gazprom's access to the Opal gas pipeline, connecting Europe’s gas transportation network with the Nord Stream pipeline carrying Russian natural gas, by additional 40 percent. However, the European Court of Justice in December suspended the EU approval to give Gazprom more of the pipeline's capacity after an appeal from Poland, claiming that such actions would undermine gas supply security, as well as competition on the EU gas markets.

Didn't realise the numbers were so high. Forget everything else, in real politik Donbas does not matter, in the long term this, along with Crimea, is the really really big payoff for Russia from Washington's crazy plan. Drinks all round in the Kremlin. Also posted in Russia economy thread.


Russia accepted 2.5 million refugees from Ukraine since the beginning of Kiev's military operation in Donbass, the deputy chairperson of the Federation Council, the Russian upper house of parliament, said Tuesday.

MOSCOW (Sputnik) — The migration flows from Ukraine intensified in April 2014, when Donbass residents' refusal to recognize the new Ukrainian authorities, which came to power as a result of what many consider to be a coup, triggered Kiev's violent response.

“Europe has accepted and is convulsing from 900,000, while we accepted 2.5 million refugees,” Yury Vorobiev said.

In October 2016, managing director of the People’s Republic of Donetsk (DPR) Ombudsman administration Dmitry Popov said it was not only military actions that caused the forced displacement, but also the persecution of civilians supporting DPR by the Ukrainian authorities.

Unless I'm mistaken that diaspora has been mentioned here. Those figures are low, it's more like almost 5 million have left orcland for Russia, Byelorus and Europe. Take out the over 2.5 million still in Novorossiya and the 2.5 million in Krimu that means orcland has lost 10 millions. That's a bit over 20% and closer to 25% of the populace that has bailed in 3 years. Massive hit and I would estimate the current population of orcland as a bit less than 33 millions if that. Many of those who left were the best and brightest.

Auslander,

According to the below sources, the populations of DNR and LNR as of the 1st of May 2016 are:

DNR: 2.3 million
LNR: 1.5 million

http://glavstat.govdnr.ru/pdf/naselenie/chisl_naselenie_0516.pdf
http://www.gkslnr.su/files/chisl_0516.pdf

So, the total in free Novorossiya is 3.8 million people (not 2.5 million).

Many reports indicate that a lot of people returned to Donetsk and Lugansk after the Minsk 2 agreement.

So, I will redo your numbers:

Country 404 lost:

3.8 million in DNR and LNR
2.4 million in Krimu
2.5 million in Russia
1.0 million in Europe and elsewhere
-------------------------------
9.7 million people in total

That total is more or less in line with your calculations.

And yes, a lot of the people who left for Russia and Europe are the youngest and brightest.
The demographics of country 404 are terrible. A lot of old pensioners and too few newborns.
There will be further contraction of the population in the coming years.

Grab Popcorn..



Bandera nazis vs Bandera Nazis..  

The blockade of the coal supplies to Kiev by the banderites
from Donetsk , seems created a major energy pain in the ass to kiev
and they sent a representative to lift the blockade..  So watch
the reception she received by the Voluntary losers battalions in the front line.  



The women was the wife of one banderite killed in the war with donetsk,
and she was a leader in the euromaidan.. so she is not a traitor but is a bit more
realistic than them. Is telling them ,that if they dont lift the blockade , they will have
to buy energy from Russia. that have no other choice and the banderites rejected to help.


About Russia strategy in Ukraine is simple. Either Kiev agree to reverse the Nuland
coup, and return to a Democracy , with a new constitution to recognize Russians rights
and representation in elections. or either Russia continue freezing the conflict until Ukraine
economy collapse and disband in many parts.  This will allow other uprising in other cities to
start against Kiev.. just like Donetsk and Lugansk. and when Ukrainians start to feel hungry
and families starving with no food , will embrace and welcome Russia as liberators to restore
order without Russia firing a single shot. Or even having to invade.  

Ukrainians to end the conflict will need to start a major uprising in all cities and demand
a new Government friendly to Russia and oust the banderites and pro west from power.

Oh deary me, the solution is in the Governments hands.

Ukraine loses $73-147 million a month to trade blockade with coal-rich eastern regions, making economic recovery more difficult, the country’s Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman said Tuesday,

KIEV (Sputnik) — Coal shipments from the east were interrupted in January by veterans of the Ukrainian military operation to reclaim eastern territories, who likened them to smuggling. "We lose 2-4 billion hryvnas a month. This is the price," Groysman said in a statement published on the cabinet's website.

Kiev has defended trade with the breakaway provinces, saying suppliers were registered in government-controlled territories and paid taxes to the government. Groysman said lack of coal damaged the metallurgy industry and further undermined the fragile national economy. He warned continued fuel shortages could cause the gross domestic product to go down.

In late January, a group of former participants of Ukraine's military operation in Donbass, including Ukrainian lawmakers, blocked on some sections freight railroad links with areas in Donbass not controlled by Kiev. They claimed that any trade with the self-proclaimed republics was illegal, and all ongoing trade transportation meant smuggling. The blockade has led to a disruption in anthracite coal supplies to Ukraine, which forced the Ukrainian authorities to introduce emergency measures in the energy sector in order to save resources.

TheArmenian wrote:Auslander,

According to the below sources, the populations of DNR and LNR as of the 1st of May 2016 are:

DNR: 2.3 million
LNR: 1.5 million

http://glavstat.govdnr.ru/pdf/naselenie/chisl_naselenie_0516.pdf
http://www.gkslnr.su/files/chisl_0516.pdf

So, the total in free Novorossiya is 3.8 million people (not 2.5 million).

Many reports indicate that a lot of people returned to Donetsk and Lugansk after the Minsk 2 agreement.

So, I will redo your numbers:

Country 404 lost:

3.8 million in DNR and LNR
2.4 million in Krimu
2.5 million in Russia
1.0 million in Europe and elsewhere
-------------------------------
9.7 million people in total

That total is more or less in line with your calculations.

And yes, a lot of the people who left for Russia and Europe are the youngest and brightest.
The demographics of country 404 are terrible. A lot of old pensioners and too few newborns.
There will be further contraction of the population in the coming years.

You may want to adjust your estimate for Ukrainian migrants leaving for Europe and elsewhere. Poland alone estimated 1.3 Ukrainian migrant workers came over last year. And apparently working the least desirable jobs for the lowest pay.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-06/million-migrants-fleeing-putin-score-a-policy-jackpot-for-poland

So much for Trump is his own man. I guess we'll see...

US supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine likely to ‘raise global military threats’

https://en.news-front.info/2017/03/04/us-supplying-lethal-weapons-to-ukraine-likely-to-raise-global-military-threats/

The Committee on Appropriations of the House of Representatives of the United States Congress has proposed a bill cutting US military aid for Ukraine to $150 million, from the initial $300 million.
Warning Sign

The money is proposed to be used to provide “assistance, including training; equipment; lethal weapons of a defensive nature; and intelligence support to the military and national security forces of Ukraine.”



A sum of $150 million is very significant for Ukraine’s military budget. For the first time, the funds could be used for advanced rearmament of the Ukraine military.



The legislation will be considered by the House of Representatives, and then it will be approved or rejected by US President Donald Trump.



“Despite the fact that the bill presumed a cut in US military assistance for Ukraine, US Congress wants to provide Kiev with lethal weapons. This is the key point. If the bill is passed the money must be allocated by September 30, the end of fiscal year 2017. This is a warning sign,” Russian journalist and political commentator Alexander Khrolenko wrote in a piece for Sputnik.



Previously, a bill on providing Ukraine with lethal weapons was already submitted to Congress, but the legislation was finally rejected.

slasher wrote:

You may want to adjust your estimate for Ukrainian migrants leaving for Europe and elsewhere. Poland alone estimated 1.3 Ukrainian migrant workers came over last year. And apparently working the least desirable jobs for the lowest pay.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-06/million-migrants-fleeing-putin-score-a-policy-jackpot-for-poland

Note the url: "million-migrants-fleeing-putin".... seriously.... these libtard fake-news pressitute scumbags.... How can anyone take these people seriously?

Ukranians doing low paid jobs in different culture and language will not find happiness and will return home. On the other hand I believe that at least 80% of all Ukranians that will eventually come in Russia will also continue to live their lives there and that a big difference in comparison with EU.
Rogozin said that Russia welcomes all Ukranian engineers.

Viktor wrote:Ukranians doing low paid jobs in different culture and language will not find happiness and will return home. On the other hand I believe that at least 80% of all Ukranians that will eventually come in Russia will also continue to live their lives there and that a big difference in comparison with EU.
Rogozin said that Russia welcomes all Ukranian engineers.

Pretty much this. The most skilled and educated Ukrainian engineers will go to Russia and the others will go to the EU, the most skilled and educated Ukrainian engineers, know that there are not many jobs in the EU and the ones that are available, are going to be low paid.

It would not surprise me to hear that the most educated and the most brightest Ukrainians are already in Russia and they will lay their roots down in Russia.

If you look at the migrants that the EU and Russia got, Russia got the most educated and the most bright ones   and the EU got the most uneducated and the least brightest ones .

par far wrote:If you look at the migrants that the EU and Russia got, Russia got the most educated and the most bright ones study and the EU got the most uneducated and the least brightest ones pwnd .

True. EU is receiving millions of uneducated barbarian migrants from ME and Africa and educated Europeans are fleeing in front of those migrants to Russia.

Very interesting comments on the artillery duels. Confirm what I suspected, that the Ukrainian artillery was pushed back by counterbattery, and the terrible inaccuracy from long range firing wich is allowing the Novorussians to survive the artillery shelling with few casualties. Unfortunately the Novorussian artillery cannot properly do counterbattery since the Ukrop gunners are long gone after firing.

I wish some Russian speaker in this forum would provide a exact translation as I would understand much better some of the details

http://chervonec-001.livejournal.com/1794773.html

If you look at the migrants that the EU and Russia got, Russia got the most educated and the most bright ones study and the EU got the most uneducated and the least brightest ones

I don't think you can make that claim.

Sure a lot of people moving west end up not getting the jobs they are qualified for... often because the west does not often recognise their qualifications... when I was at university many years ago I was tutoring two doctors from Asia... they were fully qualified and practising doctors in their own countries buy their qualifications and experience were not recognised here and rather than spend 7 years getting their qualifications they went for IT degrees in half the time... bloody waste if you ask me... but made perfect sense for them.

You might get an engineer in Poland cleaning toilets because of his or her political views about what has happened to them and their country... they might blame Kiev or they might blame Moscow... rightly or wrongly.

The point is that they might move west because they believe the future prospects for their family is better even if in the short term they might struggle for work.

Hopefully those that go to Russia are given every opportunity to be happy.

TheArmenian wrote:Auslander,

According to the below sources, the populations of DNR and LNR as of the 1st of May 2016 are:

DNR: 2.3 million
LNR: 1.5 million

The 2.5 million is an estimate of the number who have left, not who have stayed in the Donbas. The original population
of the DNR+LNR was over 7 million. If it is now 3.8 million then 3.2+ million have left. It is quite reasonable that 700,000+
have fled to other parts of Ukraine. I recall some estimate over a year ago that about 500,000 are IDPs.

It is also not clear whether the 3.8 million who remained count the people under Kiev regime control. I think they must.

Following your methodology, Banderastan has lost some fraction of 3.8 million in DNR+LNR living in rebel areas and 2.5 million
who fled to Russia and the 2.5 million in Crimea. Given the settlement distribution it is likely that about 3.5 million are in rebel areas.
So the total is 8.5 million.

The 1 million in EU is a strange number. I highly doubt that there are that many direct refugees from the Donbas there. As
per the above, 700,000+ are likely IDPs. Any other of category of migrants from Ukraine is not associated with the Donbas
and Crimea directly. It is likely that the economic displacement due to Kiev regime incompetence and brutality will be several
million people. Then we are looking at a population loss of over 12 million.

Those figures of 2.3 and 1.5 million are those, the Republics claim, are presently living inside their jurisdiction.

franco wrote:Those figures of 2.3 and 1.5 million are those, the Republics claim, are presently living inside their jurisdiction.  

OK. So the IDP number must be roughly the same as the old number of 500,000. The population outside the rebel regions is very small
as it is mostly rural.

Last count was 2.3 and 4.45. Luhansk would defiantly be mostly rural left but Donetsk has 6 of it's largest 10 cities still under Ukrainian control.

Details of Anashchenko's death, "Givi" and "Motorola"
Text: Ruslan Melnikov

Law enforcement officers of the LNR managed to uncover an entire terrorist network, consisting of several Ukrainian subversive and reconnaissance groups.

"The main goal of the Ukrainian DRG was the physical elimination of the military and political leadership of the Luhansk People's Republic, as well as the bombing of houses and infrastructure," said Leonid Pasechnik, Minister of State Security of the People's Republic

As a result of the operation conducted by the republican MGB and the Ministry of Internal Affairs, in LNR were detained saboteurs who confessed to the murder of the head of the People's Militia Office of the People's Republic Oleg Anashchenko. His car was blown up in Lugansk in early February. At the same time, an explosive device with three magnets was used, which was activated at a distance of up to 700 meters. The bomb, which the saboteurs themselves affectionately called "Liza", one of the members of the group installed in the parking lot under the driver's seat in the car of Oleg Anashchenko. After the explosive device worked, the saboteurs took off the burning machine for a report. However, as it turned out, they also had a second bomb.

- The direct executor of the murder of Oleg Anashchenko is the chief engineer of the 8th Special Forces Regiment of the Special Operations Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Major Sergei Alexandrovich Ivanchuk. In the performance of the terrorist attack, an explosive device with remote control was used. Another explosive device stuffed with destructive elements to destroy people, the group could not be used, - said Leonid Pasechnik.

The saboteurs were detained after the introduction of the interception plan. During the interrogation it was found out that the Ukrainian DRG, based in the LNR, was preparing special operations in Russia. In addition, the detainees reported some details about the planned and possibly planned terrorist attacks in the NDP.
- The conversation took place in the building of the Security Service. A member of the Security Service asked if we could accomplish the tasks of the Donetsk People's Republic. This - the demolition of the head of the DNR along the route to the Uspenka checkpoint, to get into the confidence of Givi, - said during an interrogation Sergei Ivanchuk, acting under the call sign "Fugas".

Recall, battalion commander of the militia DNR Mikhail Tolstoy, known as the "Givi", was killed in an explosion in his office. According to one version in his office shot from the flamethrower "Bumblebee".

Another detainee - Ivan Deev (the call sign "Zone") reported the name of the alleged killer of another well-known battalion commander of the region, Arseniy Pavlov, who acted as "Motorola". According to him, the head of the reconnaissance department of the 8th Special Forces Regiment of the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Pavel Balov with the call sign "Cedar" was involved in the murder of Motorola .

- When I was in Khmelnytsky in the 8th regiment of the special forces of Ukraine, in part, I heard Major Balov, the intelligence chief, boast that the murder of Motorola is his business. As if he trained on elevators, how to properly destroy them, "Deyev said.

All this is similar to the truth, because, as you know, Arseny Pavlov died in his own house as a result of an explosion that occurred in the elevator area. And, apparently, a trained professional worked there.

In addition, during the interrogations it was found out that the Ukrainian DRG, based in the LNR, was preparing special operations in the territory of the Russian Federation. In particular, it was supposed to eliminate the former leader of Gorlovka militia Igor Bezler (call sign "Bes") in the Crimea and one of the FSB officers in Belgorod.

- I know that the soldier from our unit with the call sign "Odessa" spent three months in early 2016 in the Crimea with the task of destroying Bezler. But since he did not track him down and did not find it, he hid the gun in a cache and returned to Ukraine, "Ivanchuk said.

- There was a conversation that I had to go to Belgorod ... to eliminate a man from the FSB. But everything has changed, "Deyev added. According to him, this assignment was delegated to other people.

Ukrainian saboteurs were also interested in representatives of international organizations, which were being monitored. In particular, Ivanchuk said that the corresponding task was assigned to him by the curator from the SBU Colonel Sandursky (callsign "Farm"). The purposes of such surveillance from the side of the saboteur, who worked under the ominous callsign of "Fugas" and already having experience of undermining cars, are still unknown.

- I and my group were tasked with finding out the routes of transportation, on what vehicles are moving, what places are visited, where representatives of international organizations live in the territory of the Lugansk republic. We gave this information to the SBU. The next task for representatives of international organizations we were supposed to put later, - Ivanchuk said.

It is worth noting that, in parallel with the main activities of Ukrainian saboteurs, they were attracted to performing paid commercial orders. So, for example, according to Ivanchuk, they were offered to steal and take from Donetsk to the territory, a woman-entrepreneur controlled by Ukraine. For accomplishing this task, the saboteurs were promised to pay 10-15 thousand dollars. In addition, according to the detainees, by order of the chief military prosecutor Anatoly Matios, Armen Baghiryan (call sign "Buggy") was liquidated, which prevented smuggling.

- "Buggy" was ordered by Comrade Matios. He gave money to buy a car and carry out this task. I saw five thousand dollars, which I was given through Balov. He probably took more. "Buggy" interfered with the traffic of smuggling across the border. The group in which I was appointed as a senior, Buggy did not work. It was fulfilled by the commander's group with the call sign "Scream". The group was called "Shadows", - said Ivanchuk.

more than 3360 Ukrainian soldiers killed so far

http://memorybook.org.ua/