par far wrote: eehnie wrote: par far wrote:This is a few weeks old but according to this Russia is ready to sent ground troops to Syria, if the Syrian government requests, what are they waiting for?
http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2017/04/24/519286/Russia-ground-forces-Syria-Hama-Takfiri-militants
I think Russia will not increase its presence except as a reaction. If the opposition receives higher help, the gouvernment of Syria will receive higher help. This would be escalation mode. Russia is promoting instead de-escalation mode.
All the Russian allies in the area are advancing, and all the Russian adversaries are losing. Russia can keep this model of fighting, and likely will do it, while there are not big changes.
The opposition is getting higher help, they are in South Syria with NATO assholes. It would be also be nice if Iran send in more support but situation in Southern Syria is getting critical.
I would expect that the answer of Russia to a escalation process, would have different phases and degrees:
0.- Redeployment of the units that are defeating the pockets of Syrian rebels. Without increase the forces, the positions of the Syrian forces in the North and in the South (from Israel until the Euphrates) fronts will be reinforced.
1.- Surely Russia provided to Syria their stocks of retired (including of the reserve) weapons, to be stored in territory of Syria if needed. It means, that Syria would have important amounts of these weapons available to new units that would be formed in case of need. If not these stored weapons would be supplied to the current units to cover the loses. But in every case, I expect important amounts of these weapons stored in Syria at this point. More concretely Syria can have been receiving from Russia these years (bolded weapons have been present in the war of Syria):
085mm D-44
076mm M-1938
130mm KS-30
037mm 61-K
085mm 52-K KS-12 M-1938
100mm KS-19
122mm D-74
014.5mm ZPU-1/2/4
SA-3
SA-2
SA-5
ASU-57
BM-14
BM-16
PT-76
ASU-85
ZSU-57-2
082mm Vasilek
FROG-7
160mm M-160 (TMB2004-2005 300 units; TMB2017 300 units)
152mm D-1 (TMB2004-2005 700 units; TMB2017 700 units)
122mm M-30 (TMB2004-2005 3750 units; TMB2017 3750 units)
203mm B-4(M) (TMB2004-2005 40 units; TMB2017 40 units)
152mm ML-20 (TMB2004-2005 100 units; TMB2017 100 units)
057mm S-60 (TMB2004-2005 >0 units; TMB2017 >0 units)
130mm M-46 (TMB2004-2005 650 units; TMB2017 650 units)
152mm D-20 (TMB2004-2005 1115 units; TMB2017 1075 units)
023mm ZU-23-2 (TMB2004-2005 >0 units; TMB2017 >0 units)
BTR-50 (TMB2004-2005 1000 units; TMB2017 >0 units)
SA-9 (TMB2004-2005 >0 units; TMB2017 >0 units)
BM-13 (TMB2004-2005 <50 units; TMB2017 100 units)
T-54 (including engineering variants) (TMB2004-2005 0 units; TMB2017 >0 units)
T-62 (including engineering variants) (TMB2004-2005 3000 units; TMB2017 2500 units)
T-55 (including engineering variants) (TMB2004-2005 <1360 units; TMB2017 >2800 units)
The numbers of The Military Balance for these weapons are erratic in some cases and static in others. I do not think are right, but surely Syria has material at this point for some additional division.
And obviously the movement of armament is not stop there.
2.- The first and main ally of the Syrian gouvernment are the Arab shii, obviously from Iraq and Lebanon, but also from other countries out of the zone of war, which shii minorities I expect to decrease, by lack of freedom and by the high pressure from sunni communities:
Arab shii population out of the zone of war (Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen):
Saudi Arabia: 2000000 to 4000000 --- 10% to 15% of the Muslim population
Kuwait: 500000 to 700000 --- 20% to 25% of the Muslim population
Bahrain: 400000 to 500000 --- 65% to 70% of the Muslim population
UAE: 300000 to 400000 --- 10% of the Muslim population
Oman: 100000 to 300000 --- 5% to 10% of the Muslim population
Qatar: 100000 --- 10% of the Muslim population
Jordan: 62000 --- <1% of the Muslim population
Palestine: ???? --- <1% of the Muslim population
3.- Non-Arab shii voluntaries. Largest shii populations in non-Arab countries are in Iran, Pakistan, India (8 digits), Turkey, Azerbaijan, Afghanistan, Nigeria and Tanzania (7 digits). Iran is also promoting this, and is promoting the movement of important persian populations in other neighbor countries to Iran.
4.- Iran.
5.- Russia.