Syrian War: News #14

auslander wrote:

OminousSpudd wrote:

Why bait for escalation, when you can manufacture your own?  

Read that last night. They ain't gonna stop, not going to happen. At least they are telegraphing their punches now, or was this a bit of a peek in to the internal squabbling in the US Admin? If you are going to do another false flag deal then why tell The World about it? The more I think about this announcement the more it smells like someone is trying to stop those behind the quest for all out war in Syria (not that there isn't now) and this is their way of telling their own to knock it off.

Yes, it could be that. Impossible to say. Or they could simply be just that brazen now that they don't even care about such telegraphing--might even be the whole point. Lord knows that the US war party has absolutely nothing to fear from the MSM. They loudly cheer all such US aggression, even when instigated by pariah Trump. OTOH, if Hersh did get an accurate behind-the-scenes picture of events leading up to the 4/6 attack on Shyrat AB, then it does seem as if there was some real consternation about that attack on the part of some top national security advisers. But, like I said, who even knows? It's even possible all of this is part of some deep state ruse to lure Trump himself into some overreach for which he'll be removed.

Overall, though, a pretty worrying picture here.

What is really strange about the US announcement is that it came two days after the famous US journalist Seymor Hersch published his expose into the last gas attack. This is from Der Welt, there is more at the link.


On April 6, United States President Donald Trump authorized an early morning Tomahawk missile strike on Shayrat Air Base in central Syria in retaliation for what he said was a deadly nerve agent attack carried out by the Syrian government two days earlier in the rebel-held town of Khan Sheikhoun. Trump issued the order despite having been warned by the U.S. intelligence community that it had found no evidence that the Syrians had used a chemical weapon.

The available intelligence made clear that the Syrians had targeted a jihadist meeting site on April 4 using a Russian-supplied guided bomb equipped with conventional explosives. Details of the attack,  including information on its so-called high-value targets, had been provided by the Russians days in advance to American and allied military officials in Doha, whose mission is to coordinate all U.S., allied, Syrian and Russian Air Force operations in the region.

Some American military and intelligence officials were especially distressed by the president's determination to ignore the evidence. "None of this makes any sense," one officer told colleagues upon learning of the decision to bomb. "We KNOW that there was no chemical attack ... the Russians are furious. Claiming we have the real intel and know the truth ... I guess it didn't matter whether we elected Clinton or Trump.“

Within hours of the April 4 bombing, the world’s media was saturated with photographs and videos from Khan Sheikhoun. Pictures of dead and dying victims, allegedly suffering from the symptoms of nerve gas poisoning, were uploaded to social media by local activists, including the White Helmets, a first responder group known for its close association with the Syrian opposition.

The provenance of the photos was not clear and no international observers have yet inspected the site, but the immediate popular assumption worldwide was that this was a deliberate use of the nerve agent sarin, authorized by President Bashar Assad of Syria. Trump endorsed that assumption by issuing a statement within hours of the attack, describing Assad’s "heinous actions" as being a consequence of the Obama administration’s "weakness and irresolution" in addressing what he said was Syria’s past use of chemical weapons.

To the dismay of many senior members of his national security team, Trump could not be swayed over the next 48 hours of intense briefings and decision-making. In a series of interviews, I learned of the total disconnect between the president and many of his military advisers and intelligence officials, as well as officers on the ground in the region who had an entirely different understanding of the nature of Syria’s attack on Khan Sheikhoun. I was provided with evidence of that disconnect, in the form of transcripts of real-time communications, immediately following the Syrian attack on April 4. In an important pre-strike process known as deconfliction, U.S. and Russian officers routinely supply one another with advance details of planned flight paths and target coordinates, to ensure that there is no risk of collision or accidental encounter (the Russians speak on behalf of the Syrian military). This information is supplied daily to the American AWACS surveillance planes that monitor the flights once airborne. Deconfliction’s success and importance can be measured by the fact that there has yet to be one collision, or even a near miss, among the high-powered supersonic American, Allied, Russian and Syrian fighter bombers.

Russian and Syrian Air Force officers gave details of the carefully planned flight path to and from Khan Shiekhoun on April 4 directly, in English, to the deconfliction monitors aboard the AWACS plane, which was on patrol near the Turkish border, 60 miles or more to the north.

The Syrian target at Khan Sheikhoun, as shared with the Americans at Doha, was depicted as a two-story cinder-block building in the northern part of town. Russian intelligence, which is shared when necessary with Syria and the U.S. as part of their joint fight against jihadist groups, had established that a high-level meeting of jihadist leaders was to take place in the building, including representatives of Ahrar al-Sham and the al-Qaida-affiliated group formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra. The two groups had recently joined forces, and controlled the town and surrounding area. Russian intelligence depicted the cinder-block building as a command and control center that housed a grocery and other commercial premises on its ground floor with other essential shops nearby, including a fabric shop and an electronics store.

"The rebels control the population by controlling the distribution of goods that people need to live – food, water, cooking oil, propane gas, fertilizers for growing their crops, and insecticides to protect the crops," a senior adviser to the American intelligence community, who has served in senior positions in the Defense Department and Central Intelligence Agency, told me. The basement was used as storage for rockets, weapons and ammunition, as well as products that could be distributed for free to the community, among them medicines and chlorine-based decontaminants for cleansing the bodies of the dead before burial. The meeting place – a regional headquarters – was on the floor above. “It was an established meeting place,” the senior adviser said. “A long-time facility that would have had security, weapons, communications, files and a map center.” The Russians were intent on confirming their intelligence and deployed a drone for days above the site to monitor communications and develop what is known in the intelligence community as a POL – a pattern of life. The goal was to take note of those going in and out of the building, and to track weapons being moved back and forth, including rockets and ammunition.

One reason for the Russian message to Washington about the intended target was to ensure that any CIA asset or informant who had managed to work his way into the jihadist leadership was forewarned not to attend the meeting. I was told that the Russians passed the warning directly to the CIA. “They were playing the game right,” the senior adviser said. The Russian guidance noted that the jihadist meeting was coming at a time of acute pressure for the insurgents: Presumably Jabhat al-Nusra and Ahrar al-Sham were desperately seeking a path forward in the new political climate. In the last few days of March, Trump and two of his key national security aides – Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley – had made statements acknowledging that, as the New York Times put it, the White House “has abandoned the goal” of pressuring Assad "to leave power, marking a sharp departure from the Middle East policy that guided the Obama administration for more than five years.” White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer told a press briefing on March 31 that “there is a political reality that we have to accept,” implying that Assad was there to stay.

Russian and Syrian intelligence officials, who coordinate operations closely with the American command posts, made it clear that the planned strike on Khan Sheikhoun was special because of the high-value target. “It was a red-hot change. The mission was out of the ordinary – scrub the sked,” the senior adviser told me. “Every operations officer in the region" – in the Army, Marine Corps, Air Force, CIA and NSA – “had to know there was something going on. The Russians gave the Syrian Air Force a guided bomb and that was a rarity. They’re skimpy with their guided bombs and rarely share them with the Syrian Air Force. And the Syrians assigned their best pilot to the mission, with the best wingman.” The advance intelligence on the target, as supplied by the Russians, was given the highest possible score inside the American community.

The Execute Order governing U.S. military operations in theater, which was issued by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,  provide instructions that demarcate the relationship between the American and Russian forces operating in Syria. “It’s like an ops order – ‘Here’s what you are authorized to do,’” the adviser said. “We do not share operational control with the Russians. We don’t do combined operations with them, or activities directly in support of one of their operations.  But coordination is permitted. We keep each other apprised of what’s happening and within this package is the mutual exchange of intelligence.  If we get a hot tip that could help the Russians do their mission, that’s coordination; and the Russians do the same for us. When we get a hot tip about a command and control facility,” the adviser added, referring to the target in Khan Sheikhoun, “we do what we can to help them act on it." “This was not a chemical weapons strike,” the adviser said. “That’s a fairy tale. If so, everyone involved in transferring, loading and arming the weapon – you’ve got to make it appear like a regular 500-pound conventional bomb – would be wearing Hazmat protective clothing in case of a leak. There would be very little chance of survival without such gear. Military grade sarin includes additives designed to increase toxicity and lethality. Every batch that comes out is maximized for death. That is why it is made. It is odorless and invisible and death can come within a minute. No cloud. Why produce a weapon that people can run away from?”

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article165905578/Trump-s-Red-Line.html

I guess we now know why they bought BMPT...

^^

President Assad under the newly deployed #RuAF Su-27Sm3 62 Red in #Syria
The rehabilitation of the #SyAAF is around the corner.

PapaDragon wrote:

LEAKED: Photo reportedly shows Assad entering Russian jet to personally carry out the upcoming chemical attack the US warned us about.
https://twitter.com/Zinvor/status/879690706876608514

"More forces injected by #SAA allies on #Syrian-#Iraqi borders & change f objective: al-Sukhnah is no longer imminent. Target is Deir al-Zour"

https://mobile.twitter.com/EjmAlrai/status/879713232931389445?p=v

PapaDragon wrote:
"More forces injected by #SAA allies on #Syrian-#Iraqi borders & change f objective: al-Sukhnah is no longer imminent. Target is Deir al-Zour"

https://mobile.twitter.com/EjmAlrai/status/879713232931389445?p=v

Disinformation, or is it? Whichever it is, it will be causing a few headaches in ISIS HQ.


Also

Within Syria‏ @WithinSyriaBlog 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @WithinSyriaBlog

USAF A-10 attacked ISIS vehicles on Dir Zor front lines

US-led collation warplanes strike ISIS target around SAA areas in Dir Zor for the second day

calm wrote:^^

President Assad under the newly deployed #RuAF Su-27Sm3 62 Red in #Syria
The rehabilitation of the #SyAAF is around the corner.

They deployed that/them very quietly. Does this mean the Su-30 have gone home on rotation?

Assad video on Russian Latakia base.. it seems her family was present too.

PapaDragon wrote:
"More forces injected by #SAA allies on #Syrian-#Iraqi borders & change f objective: al-Sukhnah is no longer imminent. Target is Deir al-Zour"

https://mobile.twitter.com/EjmAlrai/status/879713232931389445?p=v

That would be a silly silly move on Assad's part suk needs to fall first and they close Hama and the other pocket.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:
"More forces injected by #SAA allies on #Syrian-#Iraqi borders & change f objective: al-Sukhnah is no longer imminent. Target is Deir al-Zour"

https://mobile.twitter.com/EjmAlrai/status/879713232931389445?p=v

That would be a silly silly move on Assad's part suk needs to fall first and they close Hama and the other pocket.

Agreed. Still, it could be just bogus rumor (this is from Reddit after all)

Or maybe troops spotted there are units from Iraq/Iran. Who knows...

Our Syrian Army Hero Ali Aboud martyred yesterday Due To Israeli air strike in Quneitra

Based on activities on the syrian civil war live maps, there has been heavy reconnaissance using P8's and the RC135U used for ELINT in addition to escalation by diplomatic means via press releases from the white house. UK and France has also decided that they will back any attack by the US if these alleged "chemical weapons " attack occurs.

Currently Russia has a NOTAM of rocket exercises warnings in effect, being carried out in the Mediterranean.

repeat...

The US military is now preparing for a new attack on Syria..
Is arrogantly flying up to 2 spy planes near the coast of Syria ,
up to 40km distance from the Russian military base in latakia..
If this is not a major provocation ,then no idea what is..

The Pentagon is fully intending to continue with their hostilities ,against Russia
and their message is that they will not quit and will continue harassing Russia .
Creating as much as Unpredictability as possible for Russia. they now flying military
spy planes close to Russia base. To provoke them intentionally. This is pure disrespecting
So Russia needs to be prepared for a major military confrontation in just a day ,two or three.
Probably missiles launched from Submarines this time.

wondering what RC-135V and RC-135U can do or not.. what kind of data they spying.



https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/u-s-spy-planes-conduct-intensive-reconnaissance-flights-near-syrian-coast/

I don't see honestly how this is not going to end in a direct military confrontation.
it will be a matter of time, US will do something that will end Russia patience . they seem
ready to sacrifice a few american soldiers in order to attack Russia to see if they run away
from syria after it.

storm333 wrote:Based on activities on the syrian civil war live maps, there has been heavy reconnaissance using P8's and the RC135U used for ELINT  in addition to escalation by diplomatic means via press releases from the white house. UK and France has also decided that they will back any attack by the US if these alleged "chemical weapons " attack occurs.

Currently Russia has a NOTAM of rocket exercises warnings in effect, being carried out in the Mediterranean.

They are definitively planning something.
Smell like a false flag incident. along the lines of Malasyan plane.
But could be a civilian chemical attack. my best guess will be hama or south of Syria
where they will attack Syrian army.


What sucks big time in all this is that Russia is left alone to their luck..
Neither CHina neither India is sending warships to help Russia with the
security their naval base. or sending humanitarian help . just zero. nothing.
no help.

you had Modi so busy with life ,visiting Donald TRump to hug
him and ask for weapons. In my opinion Russia should kick the ass of that traitor Modi.
India simply cares no shit if the world tomorrow explode in a world war 3 ,how irresponsible
they are.. by visiting Donald Trump. .in times that US in a state of undeclared war with Russia.
and at any time a major conflict could start.  India is sending the wrong message to Russia.
This also send a wrong message to US ..that their actions are acceptable in the world.

How ironic is that modi goes an complains about Pakistan terrorism..
But say no shit about Americans terrorism or Israel terrorism. Both of them
sponsoring ISIS. The world is simply wrong , is incredibly imbalanced ,with
the EVIL nations very well organized.. and the Good nations completely on their own.
and not caring a shit of what happens in the planet. knowing well that any world war 3
will affect also them.

From Serbian forum.
About confrontation(military) with US because of SAA

I do not agree. Russians have no interest in shooting anyone from the skys and proving that they can do it. The Russian interest (in general,  And now it is in focus in Syria as in the ring where forces are measured) is not to prove that Russian weapons can defeat Western weapons, or to defend the SAA from each attack.

As far as I can see, the Russian interest is a revision of the world's security system. The Russians want to undermine and (if possible), break down the world security system established in 1991, widely referred to as the "international community" which is sold as a Hollywood product. With sheme like this, make someting with children who die from a nerve gas, or a bombed markets and dozens of dead with a lot of blood and rescuers who are running and panicking like crazy(white helmets), then record it with hundreds of cameras, then distribute those footage through friendly media, And after that, strike the convicted from all of the available means and forms of a "humanitarian intervention".

The Russian plan is to break this scenario and call it the right name. To call Hollywood producers by a real name and point at them as such, as paid producers of fictitious reality. And to take away the right of the hegemons to bombard who they want and when they want, and on the basis of infantile and bursting morally suspicious media campaigns.

From this position, shot down of Syrian SU 23, or any attack on the SAA, is a godly precedent, precedent that the Russians can attack from all available political weapons

It's more valuable to the Russians to hold a suspended vote in the Security Council in the next round of votes, than to shot down the F-22 above Syria.

This is a political and ideological struggle. The struggle for the same minded and potential new allies and the zones of influence.From this perspective, it seems to me that there is nothing (far now) from the shooting down of US or coalition planes in Syria.

And last part
I will left this for other Serbian members here to translate, can't find English word for this one.  
Naprotiv, radi se o klasicnoj igri skidanja gaca i dokazivanja da je car go.

The two ELINT aircraft could well have been off the Syrian coast due to Assad's trip to the RuAF. Perhaps hoping to pick up unusual traffic.

Women after revenge

RusSyrianWariors‏ @Ruswariors 2h2 hours ago

Syrian widows snipers against #ISIS near #Salamiyah #Hama #Syria #Uqayrbat #ISIL #IS #حماة #داعش #سلمية

JohninMK wrote:The two ELINT aircraft could well have been off the Syrian coast due to Assad's trip to the RuAF. Perhaps hoping to pick up unusual traffic.

My thoughts exactly

I don't think this chemical scenario is likely, I mean why announce it in advance? Not many people seem to buy it

Also, photos of Assad's visit to Hmeim AB

http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/3507622.html

US is now recruiting France and for sure UK ,in a joint attack on Syria
after they do another false flag attack.

Trump, Macron agree to take joint action if chemical weapons used in Syria
US President Donald Trump and his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, have agreed to launch a “joint response” if chemical weapons are used in the conflict in Syria, the French presidency announced Tuesday. Earlier in the day, White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer said that Washington had intelligence that the Syrian government was plotting a chemical attack, and warned that it would pay a “heavy price” for doing so

What i find interesting is that whenever any country says..
Assad can stay ... suddenly in less than 24 hours ,they announce a major attack
on Syrian army and that Assad have to go.

The question now is which targets they will aim to hit?
Deizurr seems one , they will seek to completely wipe the Syrian army there.
is the most vulnerable target because no air defense there.. and S-400s are far from
it.. it can be hit with a sneak attack by Air force or cruise missiles. But also my guess is the attack will also come with Israel attack combined. that is US ,UK ,France ,Israel attack.
and the major goal will be to humiliate Russia .and this kind of collective hostility warning of an attack they planning to do ,for absolutely nothing that either Russia or Syria have done..
Will be more understood if they wanted to send a BIG message to Russia that needs to
stop advancing in Syria and not take control of any of its borders. or it could be also a confirmation that Russia indeed shut down a US global Hawk drone in the mediterranean sea.
and reason why they sending spy planes with people to test Russia if will dare to shutdown that
one. or both..

Either case ,my guess the potential attacks will be Syria military bases. expect hundreds of tomahawks missiles. Combined with artillery attacks from HIMARS .

So make no mistake US will be planning their actions and also their response to Russia response too.. they will be escalating dramatically now. to the brink of war ,and they will be ready to shut down a Russian plane too.

What Russia needs to make sure any retaliation helps Syrian army recover territory.
they need to Ask Syria to level to the ground American training terrorist camp near Jordan border. And bomb american positions in souther Syria.

It was reported by a pro Syria military website ,that used to follow the warships movements near Syria , that Russia gave Syria  50x Toscka missiles ,with modern avionics. just weeks ago.
with dozens of mobile artillery

http://charly015.blogspot.com/search/label/conflicto%20sirio

So in summary the reasons for this attack.. they already saying will do.
could be for any of this reasons.

1)In revenge for Russia shutting down a Global Hawk drone.. if that information was true ,
 it will be a real embarrassing event for US. and they had to do something to take back their
 lost image as super power.   (this will be true ... IF .. the event happened)
2)To stop the advance of Syrian army across IRAQ border and deizur advance and reverse Syrian army control of IRAQ border.. I don't see how can Russia agree with Americans on this , that Syria don't have right to take control of its borders with IRAQ and Jordan. i think they will prefer to risk a war. You allow an american military base there ,it will be used as a launch pad to attack any part of Syria and stage a major invasion from Syrian desert.
3) To stop Syrian army advance in souther Syria border with Israel occupied Golan heights.
The souther front cannot be under estimated. Because some military experts believe Israel
is concentrating a large force of ISIS fighters in Golan heights to send the to Lebanon ,and
use ISIS as the spear of Israel Army. Unbelievable but true. they don't plan to hide a cooperation of this level. they will call them moderates. Imagine that the most hater nation of Muslim ,israel , in together with ISIS opening a new battlefield in Lebanon.  To create a buffer zone with Israel army between Lebanon and Syria.and long as possible.

So Russia better be ready to deploy air defenses to counter a rain of 100 to 200 cruise missiles.
and to destroy American rocket artillery in Syria. Deirzur will be the most vulnerable military base of all , and i dont think they will have a chance to link with them in so small time.

US announced the attacks probably to soften public about the idea and become more relaxed
when they do it. Im sure this new attack of US on Syria will be the largest ever in the entire
conflict and the most closer we will be to a world war 3 ,depending on how Russia respond it.

Because trump is so unpredictable ,and dangerous for his EGO. Russia needs to prepare also
for its military base to be attacks by Himars artillery attacks and they later deny it. Hopefully
they do it ,so Russia take gloves off and completely seal Syria airspace and take the fight back to US military base in IRAQ ,bomb the hell of it ,which is being used to help ISIS too.

All things said.. I really think ,that if Russia manage to hold actual positions more or less ,
or Freeze the conflict for 10 years. that is until at least 2020 elections in US. That RT alone
coverage of Syria ,will do an irreparable damage to US Government that they will not recover.
Because every american citizen ,european citizens and world citizens ,about 90% of world population who watch news ,will be fully aware of US is in bed with with terrorism with ISIS.

And in the same way Trump was elected ,based on promises to end Syria war and a policy
of peace , in the same way the turn will be for US senate and Congress new elections. and
The topic of Syria will be the main one in the next 2020 presidential elections. It means that if
Putin can hold Syria progress ,even after hundreds and hundreds of tomahawks attaks by NATO
then it will be unlikely that the military in the Pentgaon will recommend a continuation of
a military solution for Syria ,because the only thing left will be start a nuclear war with Russia.
What US pentagon is doing now is testing Putin. they testing to see if they can break his support for Syria. and force Russia to retreat. So Pentagon will not abandon Syria until they have tested everything. Cruise missiles attack? check.. now Hundreds of cruise missiles attack...in progress ..  and lastly they will want to try to shut down a couple of Russian planes
and say it was a mistake ,that though it was Syria airforce ,to see what Russia will do. This is how US tactics works. step by step ,they increase hostilities , testing their enemies response.

and why i do think Syria war will not last more than 3 administrations? that is 10-12 years?
because thats the usual time it takes for the US military to realize is a conflict is worth of continuation or not. Vietnam war ,Korean war ,IRAQ war. all were withing that time line .
And already Americans are in revolution mode.. in peaceful one.. through elections , they all crossed party lines to vote for a president promoting a policy of peace and end of support of terrorism. and draining the swamp. If Trump don't deliver ,they will get Tulsi Gabbard for president in 2020, and that one contrary to Trump knows how to speak and is respected by Liberals and by republicans too. if there is someone can get a lot of votes ,is her. Because most americans likes social aid ,and she believe in that..but contrary to her own party , she is a veteran from IRAQ war and she promote peace with Syria and
zero cooperation with any Rebel group. Tulsi Gabbard is the ONLY Politician in congress that have said US is aiding ISIS and Alqaeda and that there is no difference between Rebels and ISIS ,that they are all terrorist and that they need to work with the sovereign country of Syria.
For sure if she is elected ,she cannot be blackmailed easily. Neither she is scared from losing her own life.. since is an IRAQ war veteran and she even travel to Syria against all his own party. She is the big deal.